前景不明，按兵不动 - 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 20250508 摘要 • 美联储进入观望模式，多次使用"等待观察"措辞，表明其行动可能滞后 于市场变化。市场普遍预期短期内不会降息，但对经济下行风险保持警惕。 • 特朗普关税政策的不确定性导致消费者信心受挫，软数据反映出对经济增 长放缓和通胀上行的担忧。然而，一季度 GDP、非农就业和服务业 PMI 等 硬数据显示美国经济仍具韧性，服务业受关税影响相对较小。 • 美国一季度 GDP 负增长主要受进口高增拖累，尤其是黄金、铜和电子产品 的大量进口。尽管数据表现不佳，但实际情况优于前期预测模型，科技股 财报季的良好表现也缓解了市场对降息的预期。 • 面对政治不确定性，美联储可能采取观望、鹰派预期管理和被动应对策略。 鲍威尔旨在避免因政治压力过早宽松导致通胀失控，同时也避免反应迟缓 导致经济衰退。在就业数据等硬数据明显走弱前，预计不会提前宽松。 • 特朗普加征关税的主要诉求包括增加财政收入、促使美联储降息以降低国 债滚动成本和债务压力，以及通过关税换取筹码，如增加美债持有量、军 费开支或本币升值。若股债汇三杀，尤其是美债收益率上行，特朗普可能 软化关税立场。 Q ...

金十访谈间美联储硬刚到底，美元会强势反攻吗？黄金多头重回主场，今年能涨到4500美元？Sasa联手 嘉盛资深分析师Jerry实时分析中，点击观看直播>>> 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price experienced a decline, closing at $3341.69 per ounce, down 0.67% from the previous day, with a trading range between $3366.36 and $3319.82 [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but highlighted increasing risks related to inflation and unemployment, complicating the economic outlook [1] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with a key support level at $3303 and resistance at $3350, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds [3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are expected to rebound, potentially surpassing $60 per barrel, amid expectations that the US-China trade war has peaked [4] - Recent declines in Brent and WTI crude oil prices were attributed to market skepticism regarding trade negotiations and positive signals from Iran's nuclear talks [4] - The technical outlook for oil shows a downward trend, with a potential target of $50, and a recommendation to sell on rebounds with resistance at $60.3 and support at $57.0 [5]

Group 1 - The geopolitical risks have eased somewhat due to the resumption of US-China trade talks and a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, but ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and military confrontations in the Middle East continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, and Powell indicated that there is still a lot of uncertainty, which has cooled expectations for a rate cut in June, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index that has somewhat suppressed the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [2] - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, and Trump's tariff policies may push core inflation to 3%, which supports gold's anti-inflation properties and keeps long-term funds interested in gold, providing support for gold prices in the Asian market [2] Group 2 - The spot gold price opened at $3366.20 per ounce in the Asian market, initially rising to a high of $3414.79 before a significant drop to a low of $3320.35, indicating weakened bullish momentum [5] - On the hourly chart, gold has broken below the recent trading range, indicating a bearish direction, with strong downward momentum observed on the 15-minute chart suggesting potential for new lows [5] - The trading strategy for today suggests short positions on rallies with a take-profit target at $3310.00 and a stop-loss based on the 15-minute moving average [5] Group 3 - Silver opened at $32.365, showing a similar pattern of initial gains followed by a decline, with only short-term trading opportunities available on the 5-minute chart [7] - The price has fallen below the 20-period moving average, indicating further weakening of bullish momentum and a bearish outlook [7] - The trading strategy for silver suggests short positions on rallies with a stop-loss based on the moving average and a take-profit target at $32.000 [7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised the target values for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 78 points and 4400 points respectively, indicating potential upside of 7% and 15% [1] - Goldman Sachs has maintained a bullish outlook on Chinese assets throughout the year, with the MSCI China Index showing a year-to-date increase of over 12% [1] - The resilience of the Chinese stock market is attributed to factors such as a weaker dollar, strong economic growth, and domestic policy support [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for net southbound capital inflows for the year from $75 billion to $110 billion, driven by capital flowing from the U.S. to China, the growth potential and valuation advantages of H-shares, and the expansion of the investable universe due to new IPOs and "returning" listings [1][2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, has expressed a strong stance on shorting the dollar and going long on gold, citing that risk assets have already priced in much of the optimism [4] - Hatzius estimates a 45% probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months, with expectations of increased tariffs in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [4] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points, with the first cut now expected in July, a month later than previously anticipated [5] - Concerns have been raised regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that if the White House gains the power to dismiss the chair and FOMC members without just cause, the Fed could become the least independent central bank among developed countries [5]

Group 1 - Oil prices are rising, supported by demand expectations, but the Federal Reserve's inaction limits the extent of the increase [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its oil price forecast, raising questions about market reactions [1]

Group 1 - The April non-farm payroll report in the U.S. shows a mixed labor market picture, with 177,000 jobs added, exceeding the expected 130,000, but with a downward revision of 58,000 jobs in the previous two months [1] - The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%, while the annual wage growth is at 3.8%, which is below expectations [1] - The healthcare (+64,000), transportation and warehousing (+29,000), and financial activities (+15,000) sectors are the main contributors to job growth, while manufacturing continues to lose jobs [1] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, which is below the expected 0.3%, but the year-over-year growth of 3.8% outpaces the current inflation rate of 3.5%, indicating real income growth [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in May, but traders have adjusted expectations for four rate cuts within the year [2] - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.6%, with the participation rate for the core working age group (25-54 years) reaching a seven-month high, indicating more potential workers returning to the market [2]

近期黄金外汇市场受多因素影响波动明显。川普拟对海外制作电影征100%关税，加剧贸易战担忧，避 险情绪升温，投资者涌入金市推高金价，贸易政策不确定性也致各类指数波动剧烈。随后因中美贸易谈 判乐观情绪及对美联储政策声明的预期，避险需求降低，金价从高位回落。此前，现货黄金曾触及4月 22日以来最高水平。凌晨美联储维持利率不变影响较小。鉴于国际贸易消息持续影响市场，投资者需密 切关注并调整策略。 周三黄金市场表现疲软，以大阴柱收盘。亚盘时段，黄金短线高开于3438后暴跌70点，随后回调至 3360，并对3350进行测试。日内黄金一直在3400 - 3360区间震荡。凌晨美联储维持利率不变，市场受此 影响较小，但黄金下行趋势有所增强，尾盘收于3364。对于日内行情可关注3350一线的支撑位以及3395 一线的压力位。王召金建议在3390点位做空，目标看向3375 - 3360。 白银行情走势分析： 昨日白银行情以一根下影线很长的大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，日线阴包阳；从1 - 4小时级别走 势来看，昨日白银在33.30处受到压制，拉升至33.232上方后便开始回撤，成功回撤至32.22附近，尾盘 收于32.43附近 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices opened higher around 3438 but quickly fell, reaching a low of approximately 3360 before rebounding, ultimately closing within the 3360-3398 range, forming a bearish candlestick [2] - The market exhibited strong bullish momentum at the beginning of the week, but the sudden downturn on Wednesday disrupted the previous upward trend [4] Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating rising risks of inflation and unemployment, which adds uncertainty to the economic outlook amid ongoing trade tensions [3] - The Trump administration is in negotiations with major trade partners, but no significant progress has been reported, with Trump unwilling to retract the announced 145% tariffs [3] - The EU plans to announce further retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs if trade negotiations fail [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, suggesting potential upward momentum in the short term, with key support levels at 3349, 3325, and 3310 [4] - The upper resistance level is identified at 3438; failure to break this level may lead to a consolidation phase or a potential downward adjustment [4] - In a four-hour analysis, the current upward movement from 3222 is likely in the third wave of a five-wave structure, with critical support levels at 3222 and 3202 [5]

金十数据5月8日讯，美国宾夕法尼亚州马歇尔金融公司首席投资官Adam Reinert表示，虽然鲍威尔及其 同僚或许能从近期的劳动力市场数据中获得些许安慰，但关税进一步影响的威胁切实存在，这可能促使 他们在未来的会议中采取行动。从宏观层面来看，我们认为一个关键考量因素将是，实际数据是否开始 证实消费者信心走弱，或者消费者是否会像2022年那样继续展现出韧性。 如果2018年的关税谈判能提 供什么借鉴的话，那便是美联储可能需要采取不那么强硬、更为宽松的政策，才能让市场和经济摆脱任 何与关税相关的潜在困境。 分析师：消费者信心成关键变量 ...