Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to weaken starting in 2025, with the S&P 500 index down 1.7% and the Nasdaq down 5.6% year-to-date. Concurrently, funds are taking profits in gold, which has seen a cooling off after a strong performance. [2][18] Group 1: Market Trends - The CFTC data indicates that gold long positions have decreased by 15% from their peak five weeks ago, while short positions have surged by 520% from their lowest point seven weeks ago. [2][18] - The Euro gold price momentum has weakened, with European funds shifting investments from gold to military stocks due to increased military spending needs. [2][18] - Unlike previous trends, the decline in U.S. stocks has not negatively impacted global markets, with European and Hong Kong stocks remaining strong. [2][18] Group 2: Commodity Fund Positions - As of March 4, 2023, the net long position in COMEX gold has dropped to 568 tons, a decrease of 6.1% from the previous week, marking the lowest level in nine weeks. [3][5] - The net long position in COMEX silver has increased to 5,319 tons, with a 3.7% rise from the previous week, continuing a streak of 53 weeks in net long territory. [3][5] - The net long position in Nymex platinum has fallen to 4 tons, the lowest in five weeks, while the net short position in Nymex palladium remains at 35 tons, indicating a prolonged bearish sentiment. [3][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Dollar Index has decreased by 5.6% from its peak of 109.96 on January 13 to 103.838 at the time of writing. [2][19] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels during the March meeting, with a 97% probability of no change. [14] - There is speculation that the first interest rate cut may occur between May and July 2025, depending on economic conditions. [14][15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for a significant downturn in the U.S. stock market in 2025 is highlighted, with expectations of reduced government spending and geopolitical risks. [22] - The article suggests that if the U.S. begins to cut interest rates while inflation pressures resurface, it could create a challenging environment for the Federal Reserve. [21][22] - The overall sentiment indicates that 2024 may be the last good year for copper, with expectations of a significant decline thereafter unless substantial infrastructure investments occur. [10][22]

来源｜极速财讯 美股继续遭遇大波动！ 3月11日，美股三大指数低开震荡，截止发稿，标普500指数跌0.18%，道指跌0.64%， 纳指微涨0.55% 。 热门中概股开盘普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨近2%。小鹏汽车涨逾10%，蔚来涨超6%，理想汽车、阿里巴巴涨超4%，网易、百度涨逾2%。 值得一提的是，华盛顿时间3月10日24时刚过，特朗普在其社交平台发文称，将购买一辆新的特斯拉，以表达对马斯克的信任和支持。受此消息影 响，特斯拉股价一度上涨超5%。 但可以确定的是，这场暴跌的本质是特朗普关税政策引发的滞胀担忧，与美国科技股估值泡沫破裂，以及中国科技企业崛起的三重共振的结果。 虽然这场风暴的余波仍在持续，但一个崭新的时代正在悄然开启。在这场危机的催化下，全球经济与科技格局的变革，或许已在不经意间加速演进。 01 如果美国股继续下跌，特朗普可能施压美联储降息 美股下跌，这其中既有短期因素，也隐含着长期预期改变的分歧。从短期来说，特朗普的关税政策影响巨大，它引爆了市场，让大家担心美国可能会 陷入滞胀或者经济衰退。 尤其是在周末，特朗普一句"关税可能继续上升，我不确定这是否可预测"，而当被问及经济衰退风险时，他给出的 ...

首席点评 : 农产品表现亮眼 美国能源部长称，全球变暖是现代世界建设的副作用，拜登时代的气候政策将会结束；美国旨在扭 转对电动车的 " 有害规定 " ；飙升的美国电力需求 " 是一个等待发生的火灾 " ，解决这一挑战需要 投资和监管改革。国务院关税税则委员会宣布，自 3 月 20 日起，对原产于加拿大的油渣饼、豌豆 等加征 100% 关税；对原产于加拿大的水产品、猪肉加征 25% 关税。商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌， 能源化工品多数下跌，农产品涨幅居前，菜籽涨逾 8% ，菜粕涨停，菜油涨逾 5% 。 重点品种：蛋白粕、黄金 黄金 ：昨日金银回落。黄金呈现获利了结式的调整。特朗普关税政策方面呈现反复摇摆，上周宣布对 加拿大和墨西哥加征关税后又推迟对两国部分商品征收关税，政策不确定性推升避险需求，市场对特朗 普新任期政策的状态逐步由评估影响转向负面预期，叠加近期逐步疲弱的经济数据，市场衰退预期升 温。与此同时，通胀压力下美联储方面仍然表示近期不会降息，不过市场已经在为全年更多的降息次数 进行定价。近期经济数据呈现温和性的走弱，预计市场对美联储宽松的期待会暂时压过经济增速放缓的 担忧，但后出现连续性的经济走弱证据、 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downturn in the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on the impact of economic concerns and the performance of major tech stocks, including Tesla, amid a backdrop of political and economic uncertainty [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.79%, Nasdaq down 3.67%, and S&P 500 down 2% as of the latest update [1]. - The S&P 500 index has completely erased all gains since Trump's election in November [2]. Group 2: Tesla Performance - Tesla's stock has seen a significant decline, dropping nearly 9% and reaching a closing price of $262.67, marking the longest consecutive weekly decline in its 15-year history [3][4]. - UBS and Goldman Sachs have lowered Tesla's target price, with UBS reducing it from $259 to $225, citing that Tesla's long-term growth narrative has shifted towards AI opportunities that are already overvalued [3]. - Tesla's delivery expectations for Q1 2025 have been revised down from 437,000 to 367,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26% [3]. Group 3: Broader Tech Sector Impact - Major tech stocks such as Google, Facebook, Nvidia, and Apple have all experienced declines exceeding 5% [4][5]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell over 3%, with individual Chinese stocks like Zeekr down over 9% and Bilibili down over 8% [5].

中信建投固收海外 中债徘徊，美债下探？ 美债收益率快速下行背后的直接催化剂是经济数据走弱，包括 12 月份 CPI 持 续高企、新增非农就业人数低于预期、零售额环比大幅萎缩以及消费者信心指 数创一年多新低等。此外，美联储 GDP Now 模型在出口和 PCE 数据公布后， 大幅下调了一季度 GDP 增速预期。这些因素共同导致市场对美国经济衰退或滞 胀的担忧加剧。然而，更深层次的原因是通胀趋势受到打压，再通胀叙事不稳 固，市场重新审视未来通胀压力。 摘要 • 美债收益率受经济数据走弱影响快速下行，市场对美国经济衰退或滞胀的 预期增强，但深层原因是再通胀叙事不稳固，市场重新审视未来通胀压力， 需关注后续通胀数据。 • 二月份核心 CPI 数据超预期，市场对年内降息预期升温，但当前更像是经 济走弱而非滞胀，美债牛市需经济下行和通胀预期下降，降息预期受通胀 数据直接影响。 • 短期内再通胀逻辑松动有技术性原因，如一月份数据存在季节性因素，以 及美联储更关注的 PCE 数据与 CPI 存在权重差异，导致 PCE 数据表现符 合预期。 • 美债收益率短期波动受交易性因素放大，中枢判断应考虑 50-100 个基点 的波动区 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy is expected to show resilience due to renewed fiscal efforts, reducing the likelihood of recession [4][22] - The initiation of interest rate cuts may serve as a turning point for interest rate trends [3][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer spending in Europe is recovering slower than expected, with confidence needing more time to translate into actual spending [10][29] - The consumer sector is particularly weak, especially in durable goods related to the sluggish housing market [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. inflation data for July presents mixed signals, with housing inflation rebounding while vehicle prices continue to deflate [14][16] - The divergence between PPI and core commodity year-on-year growth rates has widened, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [17][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The fiscal push is expected to create financing pressures, with projected bond issuance reaching $740 billion and $565 billion in the fourth quarter [25][27] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong, primarily driven by money market funds, despite a lack of long-term bond supply [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management indicates that the current economic environment may lead to further weakening of CPI and other economic data, potentially pushing 10-year Treasury yields down to around 3.7% [23][24] - The management emphasizes that the expectation of inflation returning to the Federal Reserve's 2% target is unrealistic, highlighting the need for careful consideration of potential inflation rebounds post-rate cuts [31][32] Other Important Information - The overall housing inflation year-on-year decline is slowing, signaling a "no rate cut, gradual rate cut" message [30] - Despite low prices for used cars, U.S. auto sales remain relatively stable [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the implications of the current inflation data for future interest rate decisions? - The inflation report is seen as lacking a clear direction, providing the Federal Reserve with greater flexibility in its policy choices [32] - The potential for inflation to rebound in the coming months is acknowledged, necessitating a robust rationale for any rate cuts [31]