Market Review - Global stock indices mostly declined this week, with the Korean Composite Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nikkei 225 leading the losses. A-shares saw a decrease in trading volume, with the average daily turnover of the Wind All A Index falling to approximately 1.76 trillion yuan. Market sentiment has turned cautious, with the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index leading the declines, while funds rotated into dividend sectors. In terms of styles, the financial and consumer sectors rose, while growth styles fell, with the electronics and power equipment indices dropping over 3%. In the commodity market, COMEX silver surged by 8.7%, and copper and aluminum prices fluctuated upward, while coking coal rebounded from the bottom. In the foreign exchange market, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated against the dollar, while the renminbi continued to appreciate against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "Spring Rally" is accumulating positive factors, with a focus on buying on dips. Historically, the initiation of the A-share "Spring Rally" typically requires reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite, such as domestic policies, industrial events, or external risk alleviation. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike have been implemented, easing concerns about the reversal of arbitrage trades. The subsequent appreciation of the renminbi is expected to attract foreign capital, and the "good start" of insurance premium income at the beginning of the year is also anticipated to bring incremental insurance funds into the market. Recently, stock ETFs have seen large-scale net subscriptions, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, indicating that incremental funds are inclined to buy on dips [2][5]. Historical Review - A review of history shows that, except for 2021 and 2022, the A-share market has often exhibited a "Spring Rally" calendar effect over the past decade. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the A-share market is in a "vacuum period" for economic data and corporate earnings reports, making it easier for the market to engage in thematic investments based on policy expectations and industrial trends. Since 2016, there have been 8 instances of "Spring Rally" in the A-share market. The timing of these rallies typically starts between December and January and lasts for 20 to 60 trading days [3][4]. Necessary Conditions for "Spring Rally" - The initiation of the "Spring Rally" requires several necessary conditions: 1) A reasonable market valuation range, as the elasticity of the rally is highly correlated with market valuation levels. In the years with the largest index gains during the past decade's Spring Rallies, the market had generally undergone sufficient adjustments beforehand. For instance, at the beginning of 2016, the "circuit breaker" triggered a liquidity feedback shock, leading to a sharp decline in major A-share indices; at the beginning of 2019, after previous declines, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was only 10 times; and in early February 2024, liquidity shocks from products like Xueqiu and quantitative funds brought the CSI 300 Index's price-to-earnings ratio back to around 10 times [4]. 2) A sustained loose liquidity environment with inflows of incremental funds. For example, in early 2018, the central bank implemented targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and in early 2019 and 2020, the central bank conducted comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain macro liquidity. In early 2023, there was a significant inflow of foreign capital, and in early 2025, regulatory authorities are expected to promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market [4]. 3) Domestic policies, industrial event catalysts, or external risk alleviation that drive risk appetite upward. For example, in early 2016, supply-side reforms; in early 2019, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations; in January 2020, the signing of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the U.S.; at the end of 2022, the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the "three arrows" for real estate; in February 2024, an unexpected reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR); and in early 2025, catalysts from trends in industries like DeepSeek and robotics [4][5]. Accumulating Positive Conditions - Positive conditions for the "Spring Rally" are accumulating, with a focus on buying on dips: 1) In terms of overseas liquidity, the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been implemented, leading to a weaker yen against the dollar and easing pressures from arbitrage trades. The Federal Reserve's expected dovish rate cuts in December are closely tied to the leadership transition, with the overall market expectation for the Fed's policy direction remaining loose [5]. 2) Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for "continuing to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy," indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [5]. 3) On the micro liquidity front, this week saw large-scale net subscriptions for stock ETFs, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, boosting market sentiment. The anticipated inflow of foreign capital driven by the appreciation of the renminbi and the incremental insurance funds from the "good start" of premium income at the beginning of the year can also be expected [5]. 4) In terms of valuation, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index is 14 times, which is at the 76th percentile since 2010, below the historical median plus one standard deviation [5]. 5) From a policy perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference has laid a positive foundation, with 2026 marking the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and incremental policies in areas such as technological innovation, anti-involution, and expanding domestic demand are expected to continue to be introduced [5]. Industry Allocation Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on: 1) Growth directions benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage [5]. 2) Cyclical directions benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as chemicals, energy metals, and resource products [5]. 3) The deepening of consumption-promoting policies may bring short-term catalytic opportunities for the consumer sector [5].

新一轮 AI 算力建设驱动高速光模块需求高增。预计 26 年全球云厂 商资本开支将延续上行通道，叠加 AI 集群扩容、新一代算力平台放 量，以及 1.6T/CPO 等技术落地，共同构成核心驱动力。产业呈现双 路径演进：其一，Scale-out 通过叶脊架构横向扩展，光模块需求以 "乘数效应"放大；其二，Scale-up 通过突破铜缆带宽与距离限制， 推动高端光模块在 GPU 机柜互联与内存池化等应用中加速渗透。 光模块向高端化加速驱动价值跃升，新技术指明行业主线： 2025 年 12 月 21 日 通信 光通信系列报告一：AI 需求与产品高 端化，共驱光模块市场增长新周期 AI 算力驱动光模块全链上行，国产替代构筑产业新生态： AI 算力需求持续扩张，光模块产业景气度延续上行，并为产业链各 环节带来机遇。（1）需求侧：高规格产品进入量产放量期。全球数通 市场成为行业核心驱动力，800G 筑底，1.6T 突破，带来新一轮产品 周期。（2）价值链：上游核心器件价值占比提升，产业价值进一步向 光芯片等部件集中。（3）国产替代：中国在封装环节全球领先，但破 局高端光/电芯片的海外垄断，是实现自主可控的核心卡点。 产业 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the AI industry, particularly on leading companies in generative models and AI hardware, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI technology, with companies like Alibaba and OpenAI releasing new models that enhance video generation and image processing capabilities, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [4][11]. - The report identifies various segments within the computer industry, categorizing them based on their growth potential, with AI computing and laser radar maintaining high growth, while sectors like industrial software and medical IT face challenges [10][12]. - The report anticipates a rebound in the computer sector following recent market corrections, suggesting that historical patterns indicate potential for recovery and growth in the upcoming months [4][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The computer industry is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with external factors such as geopolitical tensions and internal market corrections impacting investor sentiment [4][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technology and its applications as a driving force for growth in the sector, particularly in areas like AI computing and software [10][12]. Subsector Insights - High-growth sectors include AI computing and laser radar, while sectors like software outsourcing and quantum computing show stable upward trends [10][12]. - The report notes that the demand for AI applications is accelerating, driven by advancements in technology and increasing adoption across various industries [10][12]. Market Review - From December 15 to December 19, 2025, the computer industry index decreased by 0.68%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [13]. - The report lists the top-performing companies in the computer sector during this period, indicating a competitive market landscape [14]. Upcoming Events - The report mentions an upcoming national robot leasing ecological summit, which could present opportunities for stakeholders in the robotics and AI sectors [25][26].

证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20251221 转债建议把握泛主线催化真空窗口 2025 年 12 月 21 日 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20251215- 20251219）》 2025-12-20 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20251215-20251219）》 2025-12-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（1215－1219）海外方面受地缘等方面影响，虽然货币政策错位持 续存在，在中长期将根本性重塑各国—无论是私人部门还是公共部门— 购买力，但在公共部门支出扩大必要性被公众及市场持续理解的大背景 下，货币政策的主基调我们预计仍将倾向维持相对宽松，利多黄金。其 中日本的情况相对特殊，长期的超宽松政策正在"成功"让日本走出"通 缩陷阱"，日元伴随的持续贬值也大幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robot company Galaxy General has completed a new round of financing of $300 million, achieving a valuation of $3 billion, making it the highest-valued company in China's humanoid robot sector [2] - The semiconductor equipment sector is seeing consolidation, with companies like Zhongwei planning acquisitions to enhance their product offerings [3] - The liquid cooling industry is experiencing growth, with major players like Vertiv expanding their manufacturing capabilities, indicating strong confidence in the sector's long-term potential [4] - PCB equipment and consumables are set for expansion, with companies like Pengding Holdings planning significant investments to meet the rising demand driven by AI applications [5] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Galaxy General's recent financing round has positioned it as a leader in the humanoid robot market, with significant partnerships in industrial manufacturing and retail sectors [2] Semiconductor Equipment - Zhongwei's acquisition of Hangzhou Zhonggui aims to enhance its CMP equipment offerings, complementing its existing dry process equipment [3] - Other leading companies are also pursuing acquisitions to strengthen their platforms, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the semiconductor equipment market [3] Liquid Cooling - Vertiv's new R&D and manufacturing base in Suzhou reflects the industry's confidence in liquid cooling technology, which is becoming essential for data centers due to increasing power densities [4] - The report highlights the potential for significant market growth, estimating the global server liquid cooling market could reach $80 billion by 2026 [19] PCB Equipment & Consumables - Pengding Holdings is set to invest 4.3 billion yuan in Thailand to expand its production capabilities for AI-related PCB products, with expected order growth in 2026 [5] - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for high-end PCB drilling tools, driven by the rise of AI servers and advanced PCB designs [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The global semiconductor sales are expected to continue growing in 2025, driven by demand from AI computing, data centers, and smart driving applications. The global semiconductor sales for January to October 2025 are projected to be approximately $612.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with China's semiconductor sales at about $169.4 billion, up 12.5% [1][22] - The global semiconductor market size is forecasted to reach $700.9 billion in 2025, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific region's market size expected to be around $370.6 billion, growing by 9.8% [1][22] - The expansion of wafer production capacity is accelerating, particularly in advanced processes, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2024 to 2028 for global 12-inch wafer monthly capacity, expected to reach 11.1 million pieces by 2028 [2][26] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is increasing due to data centers and AI processors, with the global semiconductor materials market expected to reach approximately $70 billion in 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year [3][30] - The advanced process requires higher performance parameters for electronic chemicals, leading to a concentration of industry competition towards leading suppliers capable of meeting these demands [4][32] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market - AI demand is driving global semiconductor sales growth, with projections for 2025 indicating a significant increase in both global and Chinese markets [1][22] - The semiconductor market is expected to grow to $700.9 billion in 2025, with a further increase to $760.7 billion in 2026 [1][22] Wafer Production Capacity - The global semiconductor wafer production capacity is set to expand significantly, particularly in advanced processes, with a CAGR of 14% for 7nm and below processes from 2024 to 2028 [2][26] Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to grow to $70 billion in 2025, with a notable increase in China's market size to approximately 174.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.1% year-on-year growth [3][30] Electronic Chemicals - The advanced semiconductor processes require higher purity and stability in electronic chemicals, leading to a competitive landscape favoring top suppliers with technological and scale advantages [4][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in semiconductor materials, particularly those with strong technological capabilities and deep ties to downstream wafer manufacturers [34]

Core Viewpoint - The growth in AI demand is driving global storage and advanced process capacity expansion, with expectations for accelerated domestic storage and advanced process expansion in 2026-2027. Domestic equipment manufacturers are seeing a positive order trend, and companies with strong positioning and market share in storage equipment are likely to benefit. The outlook for domestic computing power demand is also positive, with companies like Moer and Muxi expected to achieve high revenue growth in 2025. The storage sector is experiencing continuous price increases, and major companies anticipate a favorable performance trend in Q4. Structural opportunities still exist despite limited bit output next year [3][4][5]. Industry Sentiment Tracking 1. **Demand Side**: In 2026, storage price increases may constrain demand, but AI terminal innovation and computing power construction are expected to be highlights. Global smartphone sales are projected to decline by 0.9% year-on-year in 2026, with significant pressure on mid-range Android phones. The PC market saw a 9.4% year-on-year increase in global shipments in Q3 2025, but storage pressures are anticipated in 2026. The AI PC upgrade cycle is expected to start in 2026-2027. Wearable devices, particularly AI glasses, are expected to see high growth, with global sales projected to reach 7 million units in 2025 [4][5]. 2. **Inventory Side**: The inventory adjustment for power MCUs and analog DOIs is nearly complete. In Q3 2025, the average inventory of major mobile chain chip manufacturers increased, while the DOI for overseas manufacturers decreased. PC chain chip manufacturers saw an increase in inventory and DOI [5]. 3. **Supply Side**: Global wafer fab capital expenditures are expected to continue growing in 2026, with both advanced and mature process expansions anticipated in China. DRAM capital expenditures are projected to grow by 14% in 2026, while NAND capital expenditures are expected to increase by 5%. Domestic storage manufacturers are expected to continue expanding production, with market share likely to increase [5][6]. 4. **Price Side**: In Q4 2025, DRAM and NAND spot prices are expected to continue rising, with the DXI index reaching a historical high of over 380,000. The supply-demand gap for DDR4 products remains, leading to accelerated price increases for 8G and 16G products. NAND Flash products are benefiting from increased storage capacity demand from AI servers, with prices for 32G and 64G products reaching nearly four-year highs [6]. 5. **Sales Side**: Semiconductor sales are expected to continue growing, driven by AI demand. WSTS has revised the global semiconductor sales forecast for 2026 to $975.4 billion. The current semiconductor cycle has been recovering since February 2023, with global semiconductor sales in October 2025 reaching $72.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27% [6][7]. Industry Chain Tracking 1. **Design/IDM**: AI is driving demand for related chips, with a focus on computing power chips and the recovery of the sector. Nvidia's H200 sales in China have been released, and companies like Moer and Muxi are expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2025 [7][8]. 2. **SoC and MCU**: In H2 2025, demand from domestic downstream customers is expected to slow, with a focus on future AI applications. MCU manufacturers are seeing stable revenue, while SoC companies are experiencing slowed growth due to rising storage chip prices [8]. 3. **Storage**: Major companies expect a favorable performance trend in Q4, with Taiwanese module and niche manufacturers seeing high year-on-year revenue growth in November. However, the price increases in storage may pose challenges for global terminal products [8]. 4. **Analog**: AI demand is becoming a growth engine for major manufacturers, with domestic companies increasing their focus on growth areas such as servers and robotics [9]. 5. **Power Semiconductors**: AI power demand is leading the market, with domestic power companies optimistic about trends in Q4 2025. Infineon has raised its AI data center business revenue guidance for FY26 to €1.5 billion [11]. 6. **Foundry**: Demand for advanced processes remains strong, while mature processes are experiencing a mild recovery. Domestic companies like SMIC and Huahong are currently facing supply shortages [12]. 7. **Packaging and Testing**: The demand for advanced packaging is expected to remain optimistic in 2026, with a focus on domestic computing power and storage demand [12]. 8. **Equipment, Materials, and Components**: Domestic storage manufacturers are expected to continue expanding production, benefiting equipment companies with strong market positions. The semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow, with domestic technology levels improving [13].

Core Insights - The company has achieved a significant milestone with over 800 units of Chemical Mechanical Polishing (CMP) equipment delivered, indicating enhanced technical strength, product competitiveness, and market recognition in the CMP sector [2] Group 1: Product and Market Development - The delivered CMP equipment includes key models such as Universal-H300 and Universal-S300, covering a wide range of applications in mainstream product lines like logic, 3D NAND storage, and DRAM storage [2] - The company has successfully penetrated supply chains of leading customers in advanced fields such as large silicon wafers, third-generation semiconductors, CIS, MEMS, MicroLED, and advanced packaging, achieving full coverage and mass application in domestic integrated circuit manufacturing lines [2] Group 2: Future Growth and Strategy - The rise in domestic AI technology is driving opportunities in advanced packaging and chip stacking, with the company's CMP equipment expected to synergize with thinning, cutting, and edge polishing equipment to provide comprehensive solutions [3] - The increasing number of CMP equipment units will enhance the company's "equipment + service" platform strategy, leading to rapid growth in key consumables and maintenance service business, contributing to stable profit growth [3] - The company plans to continue focusing on independent innovation in core technologies and increase R&D investment, targeting advancements in process technology and product performance while tracking trends in advanced packaging technologies like HBM and CoWos [3]

Core Viewpoint - Huahai Qingshi announced that its CMP equipment has exceeded 800 units in total, marking a significant achievement in the domestic integrated circuit manufacturing sector and enhancing its position as a leading domestic supplier in CMP equipment [1][3] Group 1: Product Development and Market Position - The company's CMP equipment covers major product lines including logic, 3D NAND storage, and DRAM storage, and has successfully entered supply chains for large silicon wafers, third-generation semiconductors, CIS, MEMS, MicroLED, and advanced packaging [1] - The recognition of the company's technology, product maturity, quality reliability, and market adaptability has been highly acknowledged within the industry, reinforcing its leading position in the CMP equipment sector [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The domestic AI technology advancements in algorithm architecture and computing power density are creating significant opportunities for the development of advanced packaging and chip stacking technologies [3] - The synergy between CMP equipment and other products such as thinning, cutting, and edge grinding equipment will provide comprehensive solutions for advanced packaging and chip stacking, broadening future application scenarios and market growth potential [3] - The increasing inventory of CMP equipment will enhance the company's "equipment + service" platform strategy, leading to rapid growth in key consumables and maintenance service business, contributing to stable profit growth [3] - The company will continue to focus on independent innovation in core technologies and increase R&D investment, targeting breakthroughs in advanced processes and continuously upgrading product performance [3] - The company aims to track trends in advanced packaging technologies like HBM and CoWos, promoting product innovation and category expansion to seize opportunities in the integrated circuit industry chain [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of China's economic rise and the initial skepticism from Western powers regarding China's potential for growth [1][3] - It highlights the shift in global economic dynamics, where China has transformed from a perceived weak player to a leader in infrastructure and technology, such as high-speed rail and 5G networks [3][9] - The narrative emphasizes China's resilience in the face of external pressures, particularly during the early years of the Cold War when it faced significant trade embargoes and restrictions from the United States [4][5] Group 2 - The article outlines China's strategic responses to trade embargoes, including the establishment of trade relations with socialist countries and the adaptation of its production systems to meet domestic needs [5][7] - It notes the acceleration of domestic technological advancements, particularly in the semiconductor industry, driven by the need for self-sufficiency in the face of external restrictions [8] - The article also discusses the significant changes in trade patterns post-2018, with China shifting its focus from traditional partners in the West to ASEAN countries, reflecting geopolitical shifts [9]