| /资者等待逢低布局多单；伦敦金关注3150-3250附近支撑位及3500-3700附近压力位，沪金730-760附近支撑位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦 | | --- | | [银35-37附近支撑位及40-43附近压力位，沪银8600-9000附近支撑位及9500-10000附近压力位。（观点评分：0） | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的推 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证、也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已为求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、统论和建议仅供参考，不拘成任何投资建议。投 | | 谈者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资资造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有、未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472 ...

德邦证券认为，今年以来，黄金价格持续走高，带动了金银比的持续上行，年内金银比最高已达100以 上，随着近期黄金价格开始震荡，白银的价格逐步开始提升以修复金银比，截至2025年7月25日，金银 比已经回落至86.13，但相对2024年均值仍有一定空间，同时在国际形势不稳定的宏观背景下，对黄金 持续看好，同时美元全球地位逐步动摇的长期逻辑正在加速落地，有望对金价带来持久的推动，金价上 行也将持续拉高金银比，持续推动银价上行。 世界黄金协会7月31日发布的2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在高金价环境下，二季度 全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达1249吨，同比增长3%。黄金ETF投资仍是推高黄金总需求的关 键驱动力，二季度流入量达170吨。上半年全球黄金ETF需求总量达397吨，创下自2020年以来的最高上 半年纪录。 国泰海通证券认为，美国6月失业率也下行至4.1%，低于预期与前值，叠加近期美国对欧盟、墨西哥等 关税政策又有反复，整体通胀预期端难以出现大幅下行，预计将对金价形成一定支撑。另外，近期特朗 普多次表态希望"美联储降息"，而且美联储多位官员对降息的态度已经松动，目前市场预期9月降息重 启的 ...

据新华社，北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布保持基准利率不变在4.25%-4.50%，符合市场预 期。今年以来美联储始终保持基准利率不变，主要出于关税政策反复、通胀压力和经济不确定性多重因 素的考量。 财政施压下坚持通胀目标的代价更为高昂 近期，特朗普政府对货币政策立场持续的言论干涉，也进一步引发了市场对于美联储独立性的关注。政 府层面对于货币政策立场的干预反映出美国财政和经济层面正面临多重压力。 新华社报道称，7月4日，特朗普总统正式签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，高债务背景下的财政扩张对经 济刺激的有效性依赖货币政策的配合。若美联储坚持通胀目标，财政扩张在高利率环境下或反而加重经 济与债务负担，而货币政策的妥协则可能推升新一轮通胀。考虑到鲍威尔任期即将结束，未来市场对美 联储政策独立性的担忧可能进一步发酵，金融市场不确定性随之上升。 参考历史经验和相关学术研究，美联储独立性被认为是稳定通胀预期与维护市场信任的关键因素。在当 前多重压力下，美联储仍按兵不动以维护其政策独立性，稳定市场预期与制度信任。 值得注意的是，近期美国关税政策在与日本、欧洲的磋商中显露出一定缓和迹象。若后续关税幅度有所 下调，对物 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged this year [1] - There was a notable dissent in the recent rate decision, with two Federal Reserve governors voting against the decision, indicating a preference for a 25 basis point cut [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have significantly decreased from over 65% to around 40% following hawkish comments from Chairman Powell [1] Group 2 - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by uncertainty, influencing the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged [2] - The Federal Reserve has acknowledged a slowdown in economic growth, revising its previous assessment of "steady growth" [2] - Powell's comments suggest that the Fed will closely monitor upcoming inflation and employment data before making any decisions regarding rate cuts [2][3] Group 3 - The labor market is currently in a state of balance, with a low unemployment rate, but there are concerns about a potential slowdown in job growth [3][4] - Job vacancies have decreased, supporting the view that the labor market is gradually cooling, although the pace of this cooling is slow [5] - The second quarter saw a rebound in GDP growth, but this may not accurately reflect economic health due to a significant reduction in imports [5] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook remains uncertain, heavily dependent on forthcoming economic data [6] - Powell emphasized the importance of timing in policy actions, warning against premature moves before inflation is under control [6] - There are differing views on the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts, with some analysts predicting a more cautious approach from the Fed [7] Group 5 - Political interference and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could impact its decision-making process [8] - Historical examples indicate that a lack of central bank independence can lead to detrimental economic outcomes, highlighting the importance of maintaining this independence [8] - The Fed is likely to adopt a cautious approach to rate cuts to preserve its independence and stabilize market expectations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in September have significantly diminished following Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks, with the likelihood of a rate cut now around 40% for September and 80% for October [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged this year [1]. - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1]. - Powell indicated that it is premature to assert whether the Fed will cut rates in September, emphasizing the need for more economic data before making a decision [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing growth, with the Fed downgrading its previous assessment of "steady growth" and acknowledging increased downside risks to employment goals [2][3]. - The unemployment rate has recently dropped to 4.1%, but job growth in the private sector has significantly slowed, raising concerns about the labor market's stability [4]. - Job vacancies decreased from 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market [5]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Fed's current stance is influenced by uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and their potential inflationary effects, with estimates suggesting tariffs could raise U.S. prices by 1.8%, equating to an average household income loss of approximately $2,400 [6]. - Powell stated that the Fed will remain flexible and closely monitor changes in tariff policies and inflation data as key factors in determining future monetary policy [6][8]. Group 4: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut have shifted, with some analysts predicting that the Fed may delay rate cuts until December, while others anticipate a more aggressive approach if tariff impacts are less severe than expected [7]. - The potential for a total rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points within the year is suggested, depending on the evolution of economic conditions and tariff negotiations [7]. Group 5: Central Bank Independence - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are rising, particularly with Powell's term nearing its end, which could lead to increased market uncertainty [8]. - Historical precedents indicate that central bank independence is crucial for maintaining price stability and market trust, especially in the face of political pressures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its interest rates while raising inflation expectations, but the comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda were perceived as not sufficiently hawkish, leading to a significant depreciation of the yen [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The BOJ's decision to keep interest rates unchanged was influenced by an increase in consumer inflation expectations, primarily driven by rising food prices [3][4]. - Market expectations for a rate hike have diminished, with the probability of a rate increase this year now at 66%, up from 59% prior to the US-Japan trade agreement [4]. Group 2: Currency Impact - Following the BOJ's meeting, the yen initially strengthened but then reversed course, dropping 0.4% to 150.04, marking a new low since April 2 [3][4]. - The lack of a hawkish stance from the BOJ has weakened market confidence in the likelihood of a near-term rate hike, contributing to the yen's decline [4]. Group 3: Trade Agreement Implications - The recent trade agreement between Japan and the US, which includes a 15% tariff imposed by the US, complicates the BOJ's policy-making process [5]. - Governor Ueda indicated that while the agreement reduces uncertainty regarding future tariff impacts, it does not eliminate the high level of uncertainty surrounding external trade policies [5]. Group 4: Political Stability - Domestic political instability in Japan, particularly following the ruling coalition's loss of a majority in the upper house, has raised concerns about potential increases in government spending [6]. - This political uncertainty has contributed to the yen's weakness and has led to rising yields on ultra-long-term government bonds [6].

南非央行行长：南非通胀预期有所缓和。 ...

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 reached 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous quarter's -0.5%[7] - The main supports for GDP growth were a decrease in "import rush," resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment[7] - The contribution of net exports to GDP increased to 4.99% in Q2 2025, compared to a drag of 4.61% in Q1 2025 due to the "import rush" effect[10] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change[22] - There is increasing internal division within the Fed, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating growing dissent[22] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and a hawkish stance, suggesting that future decisions will be data-driven rather than politically influenced[22] Inflation and Market Outlook - Inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs, which have not yet fully impacted consumer prices, potentially constraining future rate cuts[23] - The market's expectation for rate cuts has narrowed, with only one rate cut anticipated in October 2025, reflecting a shift in sentiment[23] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of 2025, influenced by rising inflation expectations and economic policies[26] Stock Market Projections - The US stock market may experience short-term volatility but is expected to maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in technology sectors supported by capital expenditures[27] - The anticipated implementation of tax cuts is expected to benefit small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly those represented by the Russell 2000 index[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected increases in tariffs leading to significant economic downturns and inflation spikes, as well as challenges to the Fed's independence from political pressures[29]

7月31日美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔召开新闻发布会，就当前美国经济状况、货币政 策调整及未来展望进行了详细阐述。 全球最大白银etf--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，7月30日白银etf持有量为15149.90吨，较上一交易日减持24.02吨。周三（7月30 日）现货白银尾盘收于37.13美元/盎司，下跌2.76%，盘中白银价格最高上探至38.24美元/盎司，最低触及36.77美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 在货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，他们尚未就9月会议作出任何决定，无法在六周后依据6月份的预测（点阵图）来做决策。就目前 而言，关于中性利率存在多种不同看法。鲍威尔个人的判断是（当前政策）处于适度限制性区间，不过（各方）对此存在一系列 不同的预估。 面对当前的经济环境，鲍威尔表示，受到关税相关新闻的影响，近期一些衡量通胀预期的指标整体有所上升，无论是市场基础 的，还是调查所得的预期。但从更长期来看，大多数通胀预期指标仍然与美联储2%的目标相符。美联储将继续根据最新数据、经 济前景的变化以及各种风险的平衡来决定货币政策的适当立场。 鲍威尔指出，尽管 ...

美国方面，尽管特朗普政府持续通过各种手段向美联储施压，要求其尽快降息以刺激经济，但美联储仍在7月的议息会议上第五次选择观望。这种决策表面 上是对通胀数据和就业市场的"精细评估"，本质却反映出其对当前经济政策走向和国际贸易局势的高度不确定性。面对依旧稳健的就业市场和"略高"的通胀 水平，鲍威尔的态度更像是在"为未来的风险保留操作空间"。 而另一边，日本央行同样没有迈出实质加息的步伐，却通过大幅上调通胀预期这一"非操作信号"引发市场联想。行长植田和男的表态释放出一种克制的乐 观：通胀虽未达目标，但上升趋势未被扰乱。这在一定程度上暗示，如果薪资持续改善、国际局势不进一步恶化，年内再度加息并非没有可能。 7月底，全球金融市场似乎进入了一个微妙的"静默期"。在美联储、日本央行、智利央行等相继召开货币政策会议后，一个共通现象浮出水面——主流央行 在压力四伏的环境中选择维持利率不变，看似按兵不动，实则暗潮涌动。 再看新兴市场国家——智利成为本轮中率先开启降息的经济体。在货币政策层面回旋余地更小的背景下，智利央行此次象征性下调25个基点，更多是在试探 全球流动性博弈中的"可行路径"。而印度则正陷入来自外部的多重压力中：一方面 ...