Core Viewpoint - A-shares have experienced a significant rebound, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1% and nearly 4,500 stocks increasing in value, influenced by the recent halt of tariffs by the U.S. International Trade Court [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction to Tariff Suspension - The suspension of tariffs is expected to boost risk appetite in the market, leading to a collective rise in major indices [3][4]. - The U.S. International Trade Court's decision to block the implementation of tariffs announced by Trump on April 2 is a key factor in the market's positive response [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment enhances the investment attributes of A-shares, with a focus on a "dividend bottom + small-cap growth" strategy for portfolio allocation [3][4]. Group 2: Implications for China - If tariffs are fully lifted, it could significantly alleviate the negative impact on China's exports and nominal GDP, which are currently projected to be dragged down by 5.5% and 1% respectively due to existing tariffs [5][7]. - The best-case scenario for China would be the complete cancellation of the 20%+ reciprocal tariffs imposed this year, although this is considered unlikely [7][9]. - In a more optimistic scenario of full tariff removal, China's exports could potentially achieve a growth rate of around 4% for the year [9]. Group 3: Beneficial Sectors - The consumer electronics sector stands to benefit from reduced export costs if tariffs are suspended, potentially leading to improved performance for companies in this space [10]. - The new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors may also see profit margins expand due to lower tariffs on components, enhancing their competitiveness in global markets [11]. - The cross-border e-commerce and logistics sectors could experience improved profit margins and increased business volume as a result of lower tariffs and enhanced customs efficiency [12]. Group 4: June Market Outlook - Historical trends suggest that June may present challenges for the market, with mixed performance expected across different asset classes [14][15]. - The past decade shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has had an equal number of up and down months in June, while smaller indices like the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index have generally performed better [15][17]. - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors such as consumer services and growth industries, including home appliances, automobiles, food and beverage, and technology, which have historically shown higher probabilities of excess returns in June [18][19].

Group 1 - A-shares' three major indices collectively rose on May 29, with the A500 Index ETF (159351) increasing by 0.63% and a total transaction amount of 1.176 billion yuan, indicating active trading [1] - The A500 Index ETF has seen a net inflow of over 459 million yuan over the past six trading days, with a year-to-date share growth rate exceeding 15%, ranking first among similar products [1] - The A500 Index ETF closely tracks the new benchmark index, the CSI A500 Index, which selects 500 stocks representing strong market capitalization across various industries, balancing large-cap stocks while covering core leading assets in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the outlook for June 2023 suggests that without significant catalytic events, only certain niche industries will exhibit good prosperity, and a balanced allocation remains an important strategy [2] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of maintaining a defensive position based on macro narratives while also suggesting that thematic trading could be enhanced even without strong catalysts, as historical data shows that June is a significant period for thematic trading [2]

5月29日，A股开盘，上证指数高开0.01%，深证成指高开0.03%，创业板指高开0.15%。（编辑 王 俊勇） ...

A股开盘，上证指数涨0.03%，深证成指涨0.10%，创业板指涨0.24%。 ...

5月26日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双上扬。其中，在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高触及 7.1674，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高触及7.16163。同日，人民币对美元中间价上调86个基点，报 7.1833，达4月2日以来最高，调升幅度则系1月21日以来最大。 中国货币网数据显示，截至5月26日收盘，1年期美元对人民币汇率的远期外汇掉期点数（远期汇率与即 期汇率之差）为-2030点。 这意味着，市场预期一年后人民币汇率将升值约2.8%，有希望突破7.0关口。 最新研报认为，人民币升值会使中国股市受益。 01 中美国债利差刷新历史高点 在人民币汇率走强的同时，美元指数5月26日盘中跌破99关口。近期，美元开启新一轮跌势。在财政赤 字扩大叠加贸易政策不确定的双重压力下，上周美元指数下跌近2%，美国再度遭遇股债汇"三杀"。 今年以来，美元指数已累计下跌超过8%，抹去了去年的所有涨幅。 本月，瑞银将美元的评级下调至"不具吸引力"，预计随着美国经济增长放缓以及市场对其财政赤字的关 注度上升，美元将再次走软。瑞银建议，可利用美元短期走强之机，将多余的美元现金分散配置到其他 货币上。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期人 ...

Market Performance Review - The A-share market continued a pattern of rising and then falling, with a defensive style prevailing. Most major indices declined, with the CSI A50 being the only major index to rise. The large-cap indices, such as the CSI 300 and SSE 50, experienced smaller declines, while the STAR 50 and CSI 1000 saw larger drops [12][15] - The sector rotation remained rapid, with pharmaceuticals, comprehensive sectors, non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and home appliances leading the gains. In contrast, beauty care, non-bank financials, and retail sectors, which had performed well the previous week, saw significant declines [15][28] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index showed a continued decline, with the 7-day moving average reported at -8.0% as of May 23, slightly up from -9.9% on May 17, but still in a negative range, indicating a lack of confidence in the overall A-share market [4][17] - Financing activity remained stagnant, with net purchases maintaining stability and the proportion of financing transactions slightly decreasing, reflecting the low enthusiasm among personal investors [20][21] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The A-share market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to a lack of breakthrough opportunities. Although the recent phase of the US-China trade war has yielded some positive results, it reduces the necessity for large-scale domestic stimulus policies, delaying the expected policy window until late July [28][30] - The report suggests that the current market index has rebounded to levels seen before the US-China trade war 2.0, indicating that further upward movement requires new catalysts to boost market confidence [28][30] Configuration Aspects - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions enhance the cost-effectiveness of dividend stocks. It recommends focusing on pure dividend stocks such as banks, railways, and power sectors, while waiting for clear domestic stimulus policies to catalyze consumer stocks [5][30]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile adjustment phase, with significant divergence among the three major indices, indicating a need for investors to focus on individual stock fundamentals and industry trends rather than relying solely on index movements [3][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat with a change of 0.00%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 0.33%, highlighting a clear divergence in market performance [3]. - The micro-cap stock index rose over 2%, reaching a new historical high, suggesting a preference among some investors for small-cap stocks due to their high elasticity and easier capital mobilization [4]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, indicating a cautious sentiment among market participants [5]. - The reduction in trading volume suggests a large divergence between buyers and sellers, which may limit the market's upward potential, although it could also indicate a period of consolidation before potential recovery [5]. Sector Performance - The market displayed a clear sectoral divergence, with the port, ST, mergers and acquisitions, and food sectors showing gains, while humanoid robots, small metals, liquor, and insurance sectors experienced declines [7][8]. - The port sector's rise is attributed to marginal improvements in foreign trade data and supportive policies for the logistics industry, while the ST sector's strength is linked to expectations of asset restructuring [7]. - The decline in the humanoid robot sector is primarily due to profit-taking after previous gains, while the small metals sector is affected by fluctuations in international commodity prices [8]. Future Outlook - Despite the current market's adjustment phase, there are still structural opportunities available, particularly in sectors with strong policy support such as new energy and digital economy [10]. - Investors are advised to consider stable, reasonably valued stocks in the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors while maintaining a cautious approach to manage market volatility [10].

5月26日，A股开盘，上证指数低开0.05%，深证成指低开0.17%，创业板指低开0.25%。（编辑 王 俊勇） ...

A股开盘，上证指数跌0.05%，深证成指跌0.17%，创业板指跌0.25%。 ...

本周A股先扬后抑，前三天以小涨为主，最后两天连跌。上证综指全周累计下跌0.57%至3348.37点；深 综指、创业板综指、科创50、北证50全周分别下跌0.67%、1.05%、1.47%、3.68%。 A股虽然有所回落，但整体形态并未破坏，目前仍维持震荡盘整格局，操作上建议投资者继续持股观 望。 周一A股各大股指以微涨为主，大市值个股表现较平淡，而小微盘股表现强劲。周一统计局公布了4月 份经济指标，除工业产值数据优于预期外，其余多数指标表现稍弱。 就我们国内的经济情况看，中美之前畸高的关税已降去了一大部分。即使后续关税谈判前景难测，但最 坏情况已过去。个人相信A股虽然一时很难看到太大的上涨空间，但应该也没有太大的下跌空间。 周二A股小幅上涨，小微盘股表现继续领先，当天新型消费股表现较好。周二国内多家大型银行调低了 存款利率，且当天新公布的各期限5月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）均下调了10个基点。 周三A股窄幅震荡，各股指大致平收，小微盘股虽然继续上涨，但涨势已大为放缓。 周四A股普跌，之前表现强劲的小微盘股忽然大幅杀跌，不少大市值个股逆势上涨。 周五A股前三个小时表现颇为平稳，但最近一个小时跳水，收盘时所有股指 ...