M1增速上行也带动M1-M2剪刀差继续收窄为-1.2%，反映出企业生产经营活跃度提升、个人投资消费需 求回暖等积极信号。 在上年同期高基数背景下，9月M2和社会融资规模增速均保持在较高水平，持续为经济回升向好创造适 宜的货币金融环境。 10月15日，央行发布最新金融统计数据报告，同时调整金融统计数据新闻稿发布样式，将原有的三篇新 闻稿《金融统计数据报告》《社会融资规模存量统计数据报告》《社会融资规模增量统计数据报告》合 并为一篇《金融统计数据报告》，数据报告内容不做删减。 具体而言，2025年9月末，广义货币(M2)余额为335.38万亿元，同比增长8.4%，比上年同期高1.5个百分 点，在上年同期基数提高的背景下，仍保持较高增速；社会融资规模存量为437.08万亿元，同比增长 8.7%，比上年同期高0.7个百分点；前三季度，社会融资规模增量累计为30.09万亿元，同比多增4.42万 亿元。 值得注意的是，9月末，狭义货币供应量（M1）同比增长7.2%，增速比今年2月末的年内低点（0.1%） 提升了7.1个百分点。M1增速上行也带动M1-M2剪刀差继续收窄为-1.2%，反映出企业生产经营活跃度 提升、个人投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has reported that the growth rates of social financing scale, broad money supply (M2), and RMB loan balances are significantly higher than economic growth, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [2][3]. Financial Statistics Overview - As of the end of September, the social financing scale stood at 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [4][5]. - In the first three quarters, the cumulative increase in social financing was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [4][5]. - The M2 balance reached 335.38 trillion yuan at the end of September, growing by 8.4% year-on-year [4][6]. - RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [4][8]. Factors Supporting High Social Financing Growth - The high year-on-year growth rate of social financing is attributed to accelerated government bond issuance and improved access to corporate bond and equity financing [5]. - Government bonds have played a crucial role, with net financing of approximately 11.46 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, which is 4.28 trillion yuan more than last year [5]. Money Supply Dynamics - The M2 balance of 335.38 trillion yuan reflects a year-on-year growth of 8.4%, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the previous year [6]. - The M1 balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, showing a significant recovery from earlier lows [6]. Loan Growth and Structure - RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, with a balance of 270.39 trillion yuan at the end of September, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [8][10]. - The structure of loans is improving, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 12.2% and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increasing by 8.2% [8]. Economic Policy and Future Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to maintain strong support for the real economy, with fiscal policies also actively contributing [12][13]. - The ongoing industrial policy efforts are aimed at sustaining investment and supporting economic recovery [13]. - The large scale of financial resources is meeting the financing needs of the real economy, but rapid growth may be challenging due to the shift towards high-quality development [13].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that the social financing scale maintained a high growth rate under the continuous support of fiscal policy, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% as of September 2025 [2] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, increasing by 7.2% [1] - In the first three quarters, the total increase in social financing was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [4] Group 2 - The total amount of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, while foreign currency loans decreased by 18% [2] - The net financing of government bonds reached 11.46 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [4] - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for effective monetary policy implementation to match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [4] Group 3 - Future monetary policy tools may include reverse repos and MLF operations to enhance liquidity in the short to medium term [5] - The fourth quarter is expected to see a push for growth policies, with potential measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts to inject long-term liquidity into the banking system [6] - Financial institutions are encouraged to increase credit support for major strategic areas and weak links in the economy [6]

10月15日，央行发布2025年前三季度金融统计数据报告。 M1-M2剪刀差继续收窄，M1增速回升态势明显 权威专家：四季度货币政策仍会适度宽松，财政转向民生是破局关键 金融统计数据报告显示，社会融资规模存量超过430万亿元，M2余额超过330万亿元，人民币存款余 额超过320万亿元，贷款余额超过270万亿元。 有学者研究指出，当前我国经济面临的不是简单的总需求不足，而是需求结构失衡，突出表现为投资过 度而消费不足。 市场权威专家表示，长期以来，每当经济面临需求不足、下行压力加大时，我们总习惯于依靠货币宽松 或扩大政府投资来刺激需求，虽然短期能够起到一定作用，但在中长期会进一步扩大产能供给，加大供 需结构失衡，难以实现经济可持续平稳增长。四季度适度宽松的货币政策仍将保持对实体经济较强的支 持力度，财政政策也在积极发力，财政支出结构转型在这方面可以发挥更大效用，更多地从投资为主转 向改善民生为主。 央行调整金融统计数据新闻稿发布样式 数据显示，9月末，广义货币供应量（M2）余额335.38万亿元，同比增长8.4%；狭义货币供应量 （M1）余额113.15万亿元，同比增长7.2%，增速比今年2月末的年内低点（0. ...

10月14日，央行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告，2025年10月15日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元买断式逆 回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 | 公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告 [2025]第9号 2025-10-14 | | --- | | 公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告 [2025]第8号 2025-09-30 | | 公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告 [2025]第7号 2025-09-12 | | 公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告 [2025]第6号 2025-09-04 | | 公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告 [2025]第5号 2025-08-14 | | 公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告 [2025]第4号 2025-08-07 | | 公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告 [2025]第3号 2025-07-14 | | 公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告 [2025]第2号 2025-06-13 | | 公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告 [2025]第1号 2025-06-05 | | 公开市场买断式逆回购业务公告 [2025]第5号 2025-05-30 | | 公开市场买断 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-10-15 期货行情与成交量： 2025-10-14，沪金主力合约开于929.50元/克，收于938.98元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.23%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于937.50元/克，收于949.76元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨1.15%。 2025-10-14，沪银主力合约开于11582.00元/千克，收于11533.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.02%。当日成交 量为2421975手，持仓量为467690手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于11430元/千克，收于11732元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘上涨1.73%。 美债收益率与利差监控： 2025-10-14，美国10年期国债利率收于4.030%，较前一交易日+0.19BP，10年期与2年期利差为0.547%，较前一交 易日+0.81BP。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-10-14，Au2508合约上，多头较前一日变化-1323手，空头则是变化-1189手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 778989手，较前一交易日变化25.86%。在沪银方面，在Ag2508合 ...

市场对于10月份再次降息的预期几乎已被完全消化。根据联邦基金期货数据显示，投资者普遍认为降息25个基点的可能性接近百分之百。自去年底以来， 美联储仅在9月实施过一次降息，该举措被视为应对经济增长放缓的信号。 然而，美联储内部对于未来利率路径仍存分歧。多数官员预计今年还将实施两次降息，但部分决策者倾向于维持当前利率水平不变。这种分歧反映了政策 层对经济前景的不同判断，也使未来政策方向更具不确定性。 在通胀仍未完全受控、就业市场又显降温的背景下，美国货币政策再次成为市场焦点。美联储主席鲍威尔近期表示，劳动力市场疲软与关键经济数据延迟 正在加大政策判断的不确定性，市场普遍预计本月将迎来新一轮降息。 一、就业市场降温与潜在风险 鲍威尔在全美商业经济协会年会上指出，近期招聘活动明显放缓，就业增长势头正在减弱。虽然失业率仍处于较低水平，但劳动力市场的降温可能预示经 济放缓的风险。他表示，过去的强劲就业表现已出现疲态，而进一步的岗位减少或成为经济下行的早期信号。 分析人士普遍认为，就业风险上升已成为货币政策制定的核心因素。MacroPolicyPerspectives创始人朱莉娅·科罗纳多指出，劳动力市场仍承受下行压力， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex policy environment, balancing inflation control and employment support, with indications that the current tightening cycle may be nearing its end and a shift towards "measured easing" is possible [2][4][5]. Economic Indicators - Current data suggests that employment and inflation trends remain stable, with economic growth slightly stronger than expected, despite signs of labor market weakness such as hiring slowdowns and reduced job vacancies [5][26]. - The core PCE inflation rate is approximately 2.9%, slightly above the beginning of the year, primarily driven by tariff-induced price increases, while housing service inflation is declining [3][25]. Monetary Policy Strategy - Powell indicated that the Fed may soon halt balance sheet reduction, emphasizing the importance of liquidity management to avoid market volatility similar to the 2019 repo market disruptions [4][7][21]. - The Fed's dual strategy involves cautious interest rate cuts and balance sheet adjustments to alleviate liquidity pressures without overly relying on rate reductions [4][9]. Market Reactions - The market is closely monitoring the Fed's signals regarding potential rate cuts and balance sheet normalization, with expectations of one to two rate cuts this year, though internal opinions within the Fed vary [7][9]. - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the balance of policies rather than betting on a single approach, as the Fed's strategy aims to respond to economic realities and manage market expectations [9][10]. Financial Stability - Powell highlighted the critical role of the reserve system, warning that failure to maintain interest payments on reserves could undermine the Fed's control over rates and financial stability [8][24]. - The Fed's balance sheet, which currently stands at $6.5 trillion, is primarily composed of U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, with a focus on maintaining a stable financial environment [13][14].

人民网北京10月15日电 （记者黄盛）中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）发布公开市场买断式逆回购招 标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年10月15日，将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方 式开展6000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 记者了解到，这是央行本月第二次开展买断式逆回购操作。10月9日，央行以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。10月分别有8000亿元3个月 期买断式逆回购到期（10月14日到期）和5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期，因此央行10月两个期限 品种的买断式逆回购合计加量续作4000亿。 来源：人民网 另据记者了解，买断式逆回购，是央行在去年10月28日宣布推出的货币政策工具，是中国人民银行主动 借出资金，从一级交易商购买债券，来向市场投放流动性的操作。该工具可增强1年以内的流动性跨期 调节能力，有助于提升流动性管理的精细化水平。截至今年10月中旬，央行已开展了多次买断式逆回购 操作。近年来，央行通过逆回购操作，适时调节短期流动性；通过买断式逆回购、MLF（中期借贷便 利）操作，加强中短期流动性投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is conducting a significant amount of reverse repos to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance amid potential tightening of liquidity conditions [1][2][4] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On October 15, 2025, the PBOC will conduct a reverse repo operation of 600 billion yuan with a term of 6 months, marking the second such operation in October [1] - Earlier in October, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 1.1 trillion yuan with a term of 3 months [1] - The total amount of reverse repos in October is set to increase by 100 billion yuan compared to the previous month, continuing a trend of injecting medium-term liquidity for five consecutive months [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Government Actions - The increase in reverse repo operations is partly due to the large-scale issuance of government bonds and the acceleration of new policy financial tools, which are expected to boost loan disbursements [2] - The strong performance of the stock market and the phenomenon of "deposit migration" among residents in October are also contributing to a tightening of liquidity, necessitating support from the PBOC [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue using reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity into the market [4] - There is a possibility of a reduction in the scale of medium-term liquidity injections in the future, as the PBOC may implement a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the fourth quarter [4] - The anticipated RRR cuts are linked to external volatility, changes in domestic economic growth momentum, price trends, and efforts to stabilize the real estate market [4]