·澳联邦银行：澳储行或于2026年启动加息，抗通胀成政策核心 【机构分析】 ·野村证券预计，韩国央行已结束本轮降息周期，2026年将维持基准利率不变，政策风险转向加息。韩 国经济有望在2026年二季度弥合产出缺口，受益于消费回暖、建筑业复苏及半导体行业景气度上行，进 一步降息必要性下降。 ·Convera策略师称，若英国央行降息但释放谨慎前瞻指引，英镑可能上涨。若降息投票接近或部分委员 反对，将传递鹰派信号，抑制市场对大幅宽松的预期。 ·野村证券：韩国央行降息周期结束，2026年风险转向加息 ·标普全球：英国PMI企稳回升，企业信心修复但增长仍微弱 ·若货币政策声明暗示进一步降息空间有限，投资者或重新定价宽松周期，推动英镑和英债收益率短期 反弹。交易关键在于英国央行"行动"与"言辞"的背离，鹰派前瞻指引或比降息本身更主导市场短期走 势。 ·德国智库ZEW称，应对贸易冲突、地缘政治紧张及投资不足的改革措施或将纳入2026年议程。扩张性 财政政策有望为德国经济注入新动力。市场预期明显转乐观，结束三年停滞，德国经济复苏前景向好。 ·标普全球指出，英国12月综合PMI升至52.1，企业信心回升，主因财政预算后加税不确 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场年度报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 海外市场年度报告 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 先抑后扬 2026 年海外市场展望 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2026 年美国的经济可能会以中期选举和货币政策为主线，呈现先抑后扬的节奏。 中期选举：博弈加剧，内政为先。美国两党博弈仍在加剧，特朗普能否继续横扫面 临较大不确定性。1938 年以来，总统所在政党在 22 次选举中有 20 次都在众议院 选举中失利，唯二的两次例外都源于特殊情况。从中期选举的角度来看，2026 年 特朗普的政策倾向性有四方面：1）继续给大型科技企业提供税收优惠等方面的支 持。2）可能会针对中小企业和低收入人群进行一定支持，以平衡社会分化的问题。 3）加大力度推动"制造业回流"，但必要性并不高。4）关税政策预计会持续，但 整体力度会降低。整体的思路是在《大美丽法案》的基础 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand pattern of PTA is marginally strengthening, and attention should be paid to the recent valuation rebound space. The prices of PX and PTA may continue a mild upward trend due to positive factors on the demand side, but the supply - side pressure may limit the increase. Specifically, PX prices may rise slightly, and PTA prices may increase [1][2][43][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On December 15, the PX main contract closed at 6,784.0 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 220.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,628.0 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 18.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on December 15, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.22 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 57.53 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on December 15, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 1,057.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 806.53 million meters [2]. - On the supply side, the PX plant operating rate is expected to remain high with limited plant changes. The PTA operating rate is high, and there are no large - scale maintenance plans in the near future, reducing the overall supply - surplus risk compared to expectations. The terminal textile industry has average operating conditions, and the polyester industry maintains its operation. Positive factors on the demand side may drive the prices of PX and PTA to continue a mild upward trend [2]. - On the inventory side, the PTA factory inventory level is expected to be moderate with controllable pressure but no significant inventory - reduction motivation. The current inventory status has a neutral impact on prices. If the demand side continues to strengthen, inventory may be gradually digested, providing marginal support for PTA prices [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - The 15 - day moving average (MA15) of the trading volume of the China Light Textile City has been rising, from 725.4 million meters on December 8 to 806.53 million meters on December 15, indicating a significant increase in terminal demand and active downstream textile industry activities [4]. - As of December 11, 2025, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 4.41 days, at a low level, possibly driven by demand. Among the inventories of polyester filament, DTY was 23.9 days, FDY was 22.2 days, and POY was 16.7 days, with the overall filament inventory being high. In the short term, the prices of polyester products will mainly fluctuate and may rise slightly. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and inventory changes [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,784 yuan/ton on December 15, up 0.38% from December 12. The main contract trading volume decreased by 7.46%, and the main contract open interest increased by 5.41%. PX spot prices in the Chinese main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged. The PX basis decreased by 41.94% [5]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,628 yuan/ton on December 15, up 0.30% from December 12. The main contract trading volume decreased by 38.09%, and the main contract open interest decreased by 13.22%. PTA spot prices in the Chinese main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 350.00%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 13.33%, the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%. The PTA import profit decreased by 0.19% [5]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,098 yuan/ton on December 15, up 0.40% from December 12. The main contract trading volume decreased by 26.42%, and the main contract open interest decreased by 0.30%. The short - fiber spot price in the East China market remained unchanged. The PF basis decreased by 13.26%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.88%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 33.33%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 24.53% [5]. - Other industrial chain prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged on December 15 compared to December 12 [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester staple fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged, while the PTA processing spread decreased by 0.81% [6]. - Light Textile City trading volume: On December 15, the total trading volume was 1,057 million meters, a 4.97% increase from December 12. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 831 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 227 million meters [6]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on December 15 compared to December 12 [6]. - Inventory days: As of December 11, 2025, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber decreased by 30.88% compared to December 4, the inventory days of polyester POY increased by 2.45%, the inventory days of polyester FDY increased by 4.72%, and the inventory days of polyester DTY decreased by 1.65% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On December 15, Federal Reserve officials had different views on monetary policy. Trump said he preferred to choose former Fed governor Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Hassett to succeed the Fed chairman. The People's Bank of China stated that it would flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. On December 12, the Fed reappointed 11 regional Fed presidents, alleviating concerns about personnel uncertainty. On December 12, informed sources said that the US, Ukraine, and the EU would hold a meeting in Paris on Saturday regarding the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On December 15, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 1,057.0 million meters, a 4.97% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 831.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 227.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on PX and PTA main futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures spreads, short - fiber futures spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester staple fiber and filament sales, China Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13][14][16][18][21][23][26][28].

欧盟周五同意无限期冻结俄罗斯央行在欧洲的资产，从而扫清了利用这些资金帮助乌克兰抵御俄罗斯入 侵的一大障碍。俄罗斯央行表示，欧盟动用其资产的计划是非法的，并保留使用一切可用手段保护自身 利益的权利。 【黄金期货行情表现】 12月16日，沪金主力暂报971.42元/克，跌幅达0.60%，今日沪金主力开盘价983.34元/克，截至目前最高 983.80元/克，最低967.08元/克。 【宏观消息】 【机构观点】 上涨动能或减弱，短期高位震荡 贵金属市场整体呈现高位盘整格局。国际金价在近期强劲拉升后，于 关键阻力位附近承压，日内波动收窄，多空争夺加剧。白银走势与黄金基本同步，表现相对温和。日内 高位整理主要受多空因素交织影响。一方面，市场对主要央行货币政策宽松的预期持续，构成长期支 撑，年末部分资金布局也对价格形成托底。另一方面，美元与美债收益率出现企稳迹象，削弱了贵金属 进一步上冲的即时动力。实物需求层面未现显著增量，高价对消费的抑制效应有所显现。短期市场或转 入高位震荡。尽管宏观趋势未根本逆转，但连续上涨后动能有所衰减，技术指标呈现超买信号。若缺乏 新的利好催化，价格存在动力不足、冲高回落的风险。上方阻力区压力显 ...

海外利率周报 20251216 担忧明年降息不及预期，美债利率下行受阻 glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 16 日 宏观经济指标点评 就业：美国 2025 年 10 月 JOLTS 就业职位空缺数量为 767 万个，略高于 9 月份的 765.8 万个。同时，雇主招聘数量为 514.9 万个，低于 9 月份的 536.7 万个和去年 10 月的 535 万个。本周美国初请失业金人数为 23.6 万人，高于市场预期的 22 万人，较 前值 19.2 万人大幅回升。据 JOLTS 报告，上周初请失业金人数的反弹终结了此前连 续数周的下降趋势。 主要海外市场利率回顾 美国：担忧明年降息不及预期，美债利率下行受阻。本周（2025 年 12 月 5 日-2025 年 12 月 12 日，下同）美债收益率变动：1 个月期（-6bp，3.76%）、1 年期（-7bp， 3.54%）、2 年期（-4bp，3.52%）、5 年期（+3bp，3.75%）、10 年期（+5bp，4.19%）、 30 年期（+6bp，4.85%）。鉴于 2025 年降息预期已经实现，市场对于 2026 年上半 年的降息展望维持在 ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 890,715 kilograms, with an increase of 32,901 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The main silver futures opened at 14,944 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 14,957 yuan, and dropped to a low of 14,454 yuan, closing at 14,666 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.30% [1] - The total silver warehouse receipts in Shanghai were 720,833 kilograms, with a net increase of 37,997 kilograms [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that the current monetary policy stance is overly tight for the economy, suggesting a positive inflation outlook and warning signs in the labor market [2] - Milan expects housing inflation to ease as rental increases return to normal levels post-COVID-19, and believes that service sector inflation is unlikely to face upward pressure due to a cooling labor market [2] - Milan emphasized that deterioration in the labor market can occur rapidly and non-linearly, advocating for a quicker policy easing to approach a neutral stance [3]

日前举行的中央经济工作会议，对明年的经济工作做出部署和擘画。我们根据会议内容，梳理出一些关注热点，一起了 解。 中央经济工作会议热点简读 深入实施提振消费专项行动 到京守依据分星星曲听斗机 WILL LOCK IN T JULY THE LA 凯华社 更好统筹国内经济工作 和国际经贸斗争 更好统筹发展和安全 面对复杂的外部环境,保持战略 定力，坚定必胜信心，以苦练内功 来应对外部挑战，坚定不移把自己 的事情办好。 STANDATION THE THE STORE FOR AND FOR STORE 中央经济工作会议热点简读 把促进经济稳定增长 物价合理回升 作为货币政策的重要考量 要灵活搭配、高效运用降准降 息等多种货币政策工具,保持流动 性充裕,促进社会综合融资成本低 位运行,使社会融资规模、货币供 应量增长同经济增长、物价总水平 预期目标相匹配。 中央经济工作会议热点简读 六月七十八 / 日本 TAVEY 通过供需双侧协同发力打通国内 大循环的关键堵点，既从需求端促进 居民增收、提升居民消费能力，又从 供给端扩大优质商品和服务供给,提 升供给体系对需求的适配性。 部华社 RAN 中央经济工作会议热点简读 ...

多年来，日本央行一直将基准利率维持在零附近或零以下水平，试图通过维持极低的借贷成本来刺激经 济实现更快增长。2025年全球货币政策宽松的势头正步入尾声，当美联储持续降息以应对疲弱就业市场 时，日本是目前发达经济体中唯一处于加息通道中的国家，尽管步伐显得非常小心翼翼。 看点二：英国央行或将降息 在市场预计日本央行即将加息的同时，也普遍预期英国央行即将在本周降息。摩根士丹利、凯投宏观等 机构的一些分析师认为，经济前景恶化将促使政策制定者进一步降息。本周，英国央行将召开货币政策 委员会会议，就是否下调基准利率作出决定。市场普遍认为，这次表决结果可能十分接近，行长安德 鲁.贝利成为了决定性的关键一票。 英国央行内部的分歧主要集中在应更侧重于英国顽固的高通胀，还是更关注其日益疲软的就业市场。自 英国央行于2024年8月启动本轮宽松周期以来，这两种相互拉锯的力量使得降息决策变得愈发困难。而 随着利率逼近中性水平，决策难度将进一步加大。大多数经济学家和投资者预计英国央行周四将降息25 个基点，将基准利率降至3.75%。彭博社调查的经济学家预计，英国央行的银行利率将在明年下半年降 至3.25%。投资者的看法则更为悲观，他们押 ...

在中国国际经济交流中心主办的"2025—2026中国经济年会"上，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央 农办主任韩文秀表示， 明年将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集成 效应，推动经济稳中向好。要优化支出结构，强化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于 人，统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。 业内人士表示，央行已经建立起一套流动性管理工具组合拳，可通过各种工具的配合使用，有效应对财 政税收、政府债券发行等短期波动，货币市场运行整体平稳，短端货币市场利率围绕政策利率中枢小幅 波动，银行体系流动性保持充裕。近期我国在工具创新上力度比较大，比如将国债买卖纳入货币政策工 具箱，创设两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具等，这些都将进一步提升我国流动性管理的效果。 来源丨中国商报微信综合自人民网、第一财经、中国财经报、中国基金报 封面丨CNSPHOTO 责编丨周巾然 白雅琦 付颢琬 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月15日， 央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿 元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。分析人士认为，这一加量续作的操作，意在向市场注入 ...

Core Viewpoint - Societe Generale predicts that gold will continue to outperform U.S. bonds and the dollar until 2026, maintaining its maximum allocation and advising investors to buy on dips [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Societe Generale has reduced its exposure to U.S. inflation-linked bonds to zero and halved its corporate bond holdings to 5%, while maintaining a 10% allocation to gold in multi-asset portfolios [1] - The bank's analysts suggest that retail investors are diversifying their assets by entering the gold market through bullion, coins, and ETFs, recommending buying on dips due to central banks continuing to diversify away from dollar assets [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by anticipated aggressive and dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] - The bank forecasts that inflation pressures will ease next year, but acknowledges increasing risks in the U.S. labor market [1] - Societe Generale's economists predict a further 50 basis points cut in the federal funds rate by April next year, aligning with current market expectations, which would support a gradual easing of financial conditions [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The current real federal funds rate remains relatively restrictive, despite a recent drop from 5.5% to 4%, indicating that inflation-adjusted monetary conditions are still tight [1] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, combined with the political necessity to control food prices ahead of midterm elections, is expected to serve as a strong anchor for policy rates until 2026 [1] - The correlation between the U.S. stock market and bond market remains higher than historical norms, enhancing gold's value as a diversification tool in investment portfolios [1]