铜月报（2026年1月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2026-1-30 目录 01 后市研判 01 后市研判 02 行情回顾 02 行情回顾 03 宏观面 04 基本面 后市研判 PART 01 1月铜价波动加剧 1月铜价波动加剧 建议回调偏多对待 宏观面：美国就业市场弱平衡，通胀表现温和，1月份美联储按兵不动，但货币政策宽松预期不改，地缘潜在风险升级，影响全球资产情绪和资金流 动；国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降息还有一定的空间。 基本面来看，全球铜矿品位下降、新项目投产缓慢、资本开支不足等问题难以在短期内解决，智利、秘鲁、刚果（金）等主产区频发运营中断事件， 导致全年产量增速不及预期。铜精矿现货 TC/RC 导致全年产量增速不及预期。铜精矿现货 TC/RC 持续处于深度负值区间，冶炼端利润承 持续处于深度负值区间，冶炼端利润承 持续处于深度负值区间，冶炼端利润承压，国内冶炼厂检修影响将进一步深化。需求方面，尽管建 筑、家电等传统领域受宏观周期影响复苏缓慢，但"抢出口"政策窗口仍为出口订单提供一定支撑。整体来看 ...

鲍威尔将于今年5月结束美联储主席任期。他虽然是特朗普任命的，但却因货币政策长期遭特朗普 公开指责。去年再度就任美国总统后，特朗普曾多次尝试干涉美联储货币政策决议。鲍威尔目前还因美 联储办公大楼翻修项目遭刑事调查。 △凯文·沃什（资料图） 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立 场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储 主席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍威尔最终获得提名。 美国总统特朗普30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批 准。 ...

据央视新闻， 美国总统特朗普30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。 凯文·沃什（资料图） 鲍威尔将于今年5月结束美联储主席任期。他虽然是特朗普任命的，但却因货币政策长期遭特朗普公开指责。去年再度就任美国总统后，特 朗普曾多次尝试干涉美联储货币政策决议。鲍威尔目前还因美联储办公大楼翻修项目遭刑事调查。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策 及加快降息立场。特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储主席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍威尔最终获得提 名。 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 ...

Group 1: Market Expectations and Candidate Analysis - Kevin Warsh's probability of being nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has exceeded 90%[4] - Warsh's historical policy stance is characterized by a hawkish inclination, emphasizing inflation control and caution against excessive monetary easing[4] - His recent shift towards supporting interest rate cuts aligns with the Trump administration's policy demands, alleviating concerns about his hawkish background[4] Group 2: Potential Market Impacts - Warsh's nomination is expected to influence market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a potential for two rate cuts within the year[7] - The market has already begun pricing in Warsh's cautious easing stance, reflected in the rebound of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields[4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend suggests a depreciation of the dollar due to the anticipated interest rate cuts and ongoing credit concerns[4] Group 3: Policy Implications and Reforms - Warsh is likely to advocate for internal reforms within the Federal Reserve to enhance policy responsiveness to current economic conditions[7] - Balancing administrative demands with the Fed's independence will be crucial for maintaining market confidence in its policies[7] - The potential for a more dovish voting bloc within the Federal Reserve could solidify support for future rate cuts, especially after Powell's expected departure[7]

据CCTV国际时讯消息，当地时间1月30日早上，美国总统特朗普提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文· 沃什出任下一任美联储主席，接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场， 但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储主 席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍威尔最终获得提名。 鲍威尔将于今年5月结束美联储主席任期。他虽然是特朗普任命的，但却因货币政策长期遭特朗普公开 指责。去年再度就任美国总统后，特朗普曾多次尝试干涉美联储货币政策决议。鲍威尔目前还因美联储 办公大楼翻修项目遭刑事调查。 ...

受美联储人事变动预期及获利回吐压力影响，贵金属市场周五遭遇剧烈抛售，金银价格从历史高位大幅回落，结束了此前势不可挡的连创纪录 行情。这一突发性逆转表明，在经历了"融涨"式的单边上行后，市场对货币政策边际变化的敏感度正显著提升。 据华尔街见闻提及，市场消息称美国总统特朗普计划提名沃什出任美联储主席，这一消息成为触发市场避险情绪逆转的关键催化剂。由于沃什 长期以鹰派立场著称，投资者迅速重新定价美联储未来的政策路径，推动美元指数走强及美债收益率攀升，直接压制了无息资产贵金属的吸引 力。 受此影响，现货黄金价格日内暴跌6%，跌至每盎司5055美元附近，现货白银跌势也十分惨烈，日内跌超13%，跌破100美元/盎司大关。 此次深幅回调引发了投资者的强烈关注：这仅仅是牛市中的一次健康调整，还是意味着地缘政治与财政不确定性推动的上涨逻辑已发生根本性 逆转？分析人士普遍认为，尽管长期驱动因素依然存在，但短期技术面极度超买与政策预期的鹰派转向，正迫使市场进入剧烈震荡的盘整期。 沃什点燃鹰派预期+政府关门缓解财政担忧 此外，Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni分析称，随着民主党与共和党达成临时协议避免政府关门， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Penghua Science and Technology Bond ETF (551030) has experienced a slight pullback, with active trading and a turnover rate of 46.94%, indicating a vibrant market environment ahead of the Chinese New Year [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented net liquidity injections, and the Shibor short-term rates have declined, reflecting confidence in the central bank's liquidity management tools, which are expected to support bond market sentiment [1] - The Penghua Science and Technology Bond ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA-rated technology innovation corporate bond index, which selects bonds with AAA ratings and above, providing advantages such as low fees, low trading costs, high transparency, and high efficiency in fund utilization [1] Group 2 - Penghua Fund has established a long-term strategy for fixed-income tools since the second half of 2018, actively developing various fixed-income index products and aiming to become a domestic expert in fixed-income indices [1][2]

Market Overview - The bond market showed slight recovery on January 30, with most government bond futures closing higher and the mid-section of the interbank yield curve declining [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 352.5 billion yuan in the open market, with mixed trends in funding rates on the last trading day of the month [1][5] - Short-term bond market trends are expected to remain stable, but further declines in yields may be limited without additional policy support as the Spring Festival approaches [1] Bond Futures Performance - Most government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.23% at 111.92, while the 10-year main contract rose 0.06% to 108.31 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" increased by 0.3 basis points to 2.257%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" saw a yield decrease of 0.7 basis points to 1.808% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield down 0.60 basis points to 3.557% and the 30-year yield up 0.01 basis points to 4.853% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields showed a pattern of short-term declines and long-term increases, with the 5-year yield down 2.2 basis points to 1.657% [3] Primary Market Activity - The Export-Import Bank of China issued a 3-year fixed-rate bond with a winning bid rate of 1.6099%, achieving a total bid-to-cover ratio of 4.62 [4] Funding Conditions - The PBOC announced a 7-day reverse repo operation of 477.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 352.5 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [5] - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down 4.0 basis points to 1.328% and the 7-day rate up 0.8 basis points to 1.58% [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that industrial high-frequency data has improved in January, influenced by seasonal factors, but policy impacts on sectors like automotive sales are still evident [6] - Guosheng Fixed Income reported that the scale of money market funds is expected to grow beyond seasonal trends, although the number of funds may decline due to stable yield advantages over deposit rates [7]

极目宏观 系列研究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 经济差异的资产表现 — 2026 年 01 月宏观经济与资产月报 宏观策略研发报告 【内容摘要】 美国经济正逐步走出 10 月政府关门的影响，经济数据表现出韧性。这预示 美国经济基本面处于现实需求驱动的状态中。就业稳健和收入上行保证了美国经 济在逐渐摆脱美国政府关门影响后，将呈现逐步上行的状态。短期的不确定是美 元流动性仍处于较为紧张的状态， 在美国现实消费支撑经济，货币政策、政治事件等不确定性频繁的情况下， 美元资产走势也体现出整体向好，波动巨大的特征。美债震荡、信用利差收窄； 美股再试前高，纳指和道指轮涨；实际需求驱动有色等大宗商品价格；美元国际 货币地位弱化导致美元指数下滑。 2025 年国内经济经济增速下行的背后是投资和消费支撑力度的下降以及进 出口支撑力度的延续，经济短期体现出一定的季节性因素。从 2025 年中国经济 表现展望未来，经济增速改善已在体现，但幅度和节奏仍具有一定的短期特征， 短期，倾向于关注政策预期和消费变化，中长期关注广义财政力效果、新质生产 力发展和经济内生动力恢复情况。 对国内经济短期的关注点使得政策引导人民币持续升值预期下， ...

Group 1 - The social financing scale in Liaoning Province is projected to increase by 348.2 billion yuan in 2025, marking the highest growth for the same period in nearly seven years [1] - The People's Bank of China in Liaoning will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various monetary policy tools to support financial development [1] - The total amount of financing in the province is expected to grow rapidly, with new corporate bond financing reaching 37.3 billion yuan, the highest in nearly nine years [1] Group 2 - The balance of loans to enterprises and institutions is projected to reach 38.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with an annual increase of 153.8 billion yuan, the highest point since 2021 [1] - Household business loans are expected to see double-digit growth, with a balance of 336.5 billion yuan by the end of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.94% [1] - The financial loans in key sectors are expected to grow well, with a total balance of 17.1 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [2] Group 3 - By the end of December 2025, the balance of RMB deposits in Liaoning Province is projected to reach 87.2 trillion yuan, with an increase of 317 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2] - The balance of household deposits and non-financial enterprise deposits is expected to be 66.2 trillion yuan and 10 trillion yuan, respectively [2]