Core Viewpoint - Gold is rapidly solidifying its status as the "ultimate safe haven" for 2025, reaching a new historical high driven by expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, strong global central bank demand, discussions about the Fed's independence, and geopolitical concerns [1][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices surged to over $3,770 per ounce, marking a historical peak, influenced by expectations of further rate cuts and a weakening dollar [6]. - Major Wall Street firms are increasingly bullish on gold, with predictions for prices reaching $4,000 by 2026, driven by rising demand for safe-haven assets [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs projects a baseline gold price of $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, with potential for prices to reach $5,000 if investor confidence in traditional safe assets declines [7]. Group 2: Bitcoin as a Safe Haven - Bitcoin is being compared to gold as a "digital gold," with expectations that by 2030, both assets will coexist on central bank balance sheets [2][4]. - Bitcoin's market capitalization reached $2.3 trillion this year, with predictions for its price to rebound to $120,000 by year-end [2]. - Deutsche Bank analysts highlight Bitcoin's fixed supply and independence from government control as factors enhancing its appeal as a diversification tool [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The ongoing discussions about the Federal Reserve's independence and geopolitical tensions are expected to sustain high demand for both gold and Bitcoin [2][6]. - Analysts predict that Bitcoin's volatility will decrease over time, while both assets will not replace the dollar as the primary reserve currency in the short term [4]. - Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2029, driven by a bullish market outlook [5][4].

周二，现货黄金在亚盘站上3750美元/盎司后，接连上破3760、3770、3780关口，截至17:15报3784美元/盎司，日内上涨近1%。交易员未理会美联储官员在 上周降息后对货币政策前景的谨慎评论。 鲍威尔将于当地时间周二（北京时间周三凌晨00:35）就经济前景发表备受关注的演讲。此前，伴随上周利率决议公布的季度利率预测（即点阵图）显示出 官员观点存在显著分歧。与此同时，多位美联储官员周一重申需要对未来的利率决策采取谨慎态度，其中包括圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆，他表示在物价压 力高企的背景下，进一步降息的空间有限。 与此同时，白银价格连续三日上涨，维持在每盎司44美元附近。这种相对便宜的贵金属可能受到了看涨期权交易的支持，上周五iShares白银信托期权的日交 易量飙升至120万份，为2024年4月以来的最高水平，看涨期权数量大幅增加。 在支持性因素广泛汇聚的背景下，黄金和白银已成为年内表现最佳的主要大宗商品之一。这些因素包括：美联储放松货币政策、各国央行增加储备持有量以 及持续的地缘政治紧张局势维持了对避险资产的需求。高盛集团等大型银行已表示预期金价将进一步上涨。 展望后市，交易员将仔细分析本周即将公布的 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold has surged by 44% to a record price of $3,784 per ounce, while silver has gained 53% to $44.32 per troy ounce, platinum has increased by 60% to $1,452, and palladium has risen by 33% to $1,207 [1][2] - Precious metals are viewed as safe havens and inflation hedges amid a deteriorating fiscal outlook for advanced economies and geopolitical tensions [2] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Central banks have been diversifying into gold, holding approximately 36,000 metric tons, which has provided significant support for gold and its counterparts [3] - The buying spree by central banks began after the coronavirus crisis and intensified following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with over 1,000 metric tons added annually, more than double the average of the previous decade [4] Group 3: Bitcoin Comparison - Bitcoin has only risen slightly over 20% to $113,000, failing to keep pace with precious metals, and has not been adopted by central banks as a reserve asset [2][5] - The gains of Bitcoin may be limited due to continued liquidations from old wallets above $110,000, which have offset ETF inflows [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in global asset prices, with significant movements in both risk and safe-haven assets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nvidia's substantial investment in OpenAI has reignited the AI boom, pushing the three major U.S. stock indices to new highs, with the S&P 500 index hitting its 28th record high this year [2]. - COMEX gold prices closed at $3,775.10, marking the 36th record high of the year, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 43% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The simultaneous rise of risk and safe-haven assets has led to skepticism among investors regarding whether the market has reached "perfect pricing" [5]. - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett suggests that the combination of tariff cuts, tax reductions, and interest rate cuts creates a "run-it-hot" policy environment, providing implicit guarantees for the economy and stock market [5]. - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that the market has not yet reached a "perfect pricing" state, suggesting that concerns about future risks may actually provide room for potential market increases [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hartnett proposes a five-point trading strategy to navigate the current market conditions, including investing directly in bubble assets, constructing a "barbell" portfolio, shorting corporate bonds of bubble companies, shorting U.S. bonds, and trading volatility [10][11]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by a belief that "money is depreciating, and holding it is less favorable than consumption or investment," driving funds into risk assets [6]. Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and expectations of interest rate cuts, creating a "perfect storm" for gold [13][14]. - Deutsche Bank notes that the high gold prices reflect market fear rather than extreme optimism, indicating a typical sign of investors seeking safe-haven assets [13]. - Despite concerns about a potential bubble, key market indicators have not shown signs of irrational exuberance, suggesting that the current gold market may be in a sustained bull phase rather than a bubble [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in global asset prices, particularly in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index hitting new highs multiple times this year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nvidia's significant investment in OpenAI has reignited interest in AI, contributing to the rise of major U.S. stock indices [1]. - The COMEX gold price closed at $3,775.10, marking the 36th record high of the year, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 43% [1]. - Risk assets and safe-haven assets are both reaching historical highs, raising questions about whether the market has perfectly priced in all favorable conditions [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Analysts from Bank of America and Deutsche Bank suggest that the market is not yet in a "perfect pricing" state, indicating potential for further gains despite visible bubble signs [4][6]. - The current economic environment, characterized by tax cuts, tariff reductions, and interest rate cuts, is seen as a "run-it-hot" policy that supports economic and stock market growth [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Historical data indicates that the current market rally may still have room for growth, with past bubbles showing an average increase of 244% from low to peak [8][10]. - A proposed five-point trading strategy includes investing in bubble assets, creating a "barbell" portfolio with both bubble and undervalued stocks, shorting bubble company bonds, and taking positions against U.S. bonds [11][12]. Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and expectations of interest rate cuts, creating a "perfect storm" for gold [13]. - Despite concerns about a potential bubble, key market indicators do not yet show signs of irrational exuberance, suggesting that gold is in a sustained bull market rather than a bubble [15][18].

（原标题：再次见证历史！金价，又爆了！） 【导读】现货黄金冲上3790美元关口，续刷历史新高 截至发稿，现货黄金报3788.99美元/盎司，日内涨1.15%。 纽约期金突破3810美元/盎司，亦续刷历史新高，截至发稿报3815.5美元/盎司，日内涨1.07%。 北京时间周三00:35，美联储主席鲍威尔将就经济前景发表讲话。目前，投资者正等待鲍威尔发表讲 话，以寻求进一步的政策暗示。 OANDA资深市场分析师Kelvin Wong表示，短期金价趋势仍维持看涨。澳新银行在一份报告中表示，经 济增长放缓、通胀上升、地缘政治格局变化以及美元走软，将使黄金投资需求保持强劲。 注：本文封面图由AI生成 中国基金报记者 张舟 自9月23日下午4时起，现货黄金一路冲高，在迅速冲破3760美元、3770美元、3780美元三个关口后，向 上触及3790美元/盎司，续刷历史新高。 德意志银行分析师Henry Allen表示，黄金持续创新高表明股市中潜伏着恐慌，投资者既看好股市，又担 心存在重大下行风险。虽然金价有许多驱动因素，但其中之一是它被视为投资者在恐惧时购买的避险资 产。当下市场预期未来几年美国通胀将徘徊在目标上方，而这远非 ...

在科技股推动美股创下新高之后，市场的上涨势头持续，而黄金则延续其创纪录的涨势，价格突破每盎司3750美元，有望创下自三月以来表现最 好的一个月。 投资者押注金价的动能，部分来自于特朗普政府对美联储施加的压力，以及这种压力可能带来的通胀风险。在此背景下，黄金的避险属性得到强 化，吸引了大量资金涌入。 现货黄金涨0.2%，报3755.85美元/盎司。 23日周二，美股盘前，中概股多数下跌，百度跌近3%，哔哩哔哩跌近3%，京东跌超2%，蔚来跌超1%。欧洲股市上涨0.3%。10年期美国国债收益 率下滑1个基点至4.14%，而美元小幅走高。 在财报季即将来临之际，投资者的目光正聚焦于美联储主席鲍威尔即将在周二发表的讲话，以寻求关于未来政策路径的最新信号。 金价续创历史新高 支撑金价持续走强的核心驱动力，源于市场对美国将迅速降息的预期，以及在特定政治压力下黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。 当前的跨资产格局，正被一种双重性所定义：一边是以人工智能为代表、由科技股驱动的市场情绪，另一边则是对美联储独立性的政策审视。 97.38 +0.07 (+ 0.07%) 交易中，2025-09-23 15:54:13 (北京时间) 概览 图表 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（9月22日）大幅走高强势收涨，开盘价3687.48美元/盎司，最高价3736.27美元/盎司，最低价 3683.74美元/盎司，收盘价3736.03美元/盎司。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为10.2%，降息25个基点的概率为89.8%。美联储12月 维持利率不变概率为1.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为23.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为75.3%。 技术面： 消息面： 美联储博斯蒂克表示，对通胀的担忧将使他暂时不愿宣布支持10月再次降息，尽管近几个月来经济风险已转向 对就业的更大担忧。博斯蒂克在接受采访时表示，在上周的美联储会议上，他预计2025年全年只会降息一次。 由于美联储上周降息，这表明其目前预计今年剩下的两次会议都不需要再次降息。博斯蒂克说："我对长期以 来过高的通胀感到担忧。"所以我今天不会采取行动或支持它，但我们会看到会发生什么。"博斯蒂克在6月的 会议上也预计2025年降息一次。他表示，他对上周降息的决定感到满意，因为与3个月前相比，经济面临的风 险在就业疲软和通胀上升之间更为均衡，当时通胀是首要任务。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周一表示，在 ...

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 975.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On September 18, spot gold prices fell for the second consecutive day, reaching a low of $3628.43 per ounce and closing at $3644.27, down $15.52 or 0.42% [5] - Market analysts suggest that gold prices are reacting to the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with prices hovering around the $3650 mark, significantly lower than the record high of $3707 reached after the Fed's policy statement [5] Group 2 - Recent economic data showed a significant drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, which has led to renewed downward pressure on gold prices [6] - Analysts from ANZ Bank believe that gold may perform well at the beginning of the easing cycle, driven by demand for safe-haven assets amid complex geopolitical conditions [6] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices break below $3650, the next targets could be the September 11 low of $3613 and the psychological level of $3600 [6][7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% [1] - Following the rate cut announcement, international gold prices fell from above $3700/oz to around $3650/oz, while domestic futures also saw a decline [1] - Analysts believe that geopolitical tensions and loose monetary policies support a sustained bull market for precious metals, with historical trends indicating that Fed rate cuts are beneficial for the gold market [1][2] Group 2 - International gold prices have been on an upward trend, with the London spot gold price reaching a historical high of $3707.47/oz on September 17, 2025, marking a 72.17% increase since early 2024 [2][3] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with 2024 seeing a record high of 1089.4 tons, surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds in central bank reserves for the first time in 2025 [3] - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend is expected to enhance gold's status as a safe-haven asset, supported by continuous gold purchases from central banks [3][4] Group 3 - The current economic environment, characterized by weak global growth and easing inflation, has prompted central banks to initiate rate cuts, further boosting gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3][5] - The decline in real interest rates due to the Fed's rate cuts reduces the holding costs of gold, making it more attractive compared to fixed-income assets like U.S. Treasuries [4][5] - The market anticipates that gold will continue to benefit from the recent rate cuts, with potential for new highs, although there may be short-term fluctuations following the initial rise [8][9]