Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic mainstream urea spot factory - gate prices continued to decline, but the transaction improved significantly. The urea market is expected to show a short - term volatile trend, with the factory - gate prices in some regions expected to stop falling and rise, and in some areas to follow the upward trend. The short - term trading strategy is short - term volatility (mainly short positions), long - term layout of 9 - 1 positive spreads below 0, and double - selling for options [3][5][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded from the bottom, closing at 1781 (+19/+1.08%) [3] - Spot market: The factory - gate prices continued to decline, but the transaction improved significantly. The factory - gate prices in different regions are as follows: Henan 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1730 - 1750 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium - and small - sized particles 1690 - 1700 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1740 - 1750 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1650 - 1690 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On April 28, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.16 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons from the previous working day and 1.46 tons from the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 87.43%, a 1.07% increase from 86.36% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - The spot factory - gate prices in mainstream domestic regions continued to decline, but the transaction improved significantly. In Shandong and Henan, the factory - gate prices are expected to rise. In the areas around the delivery area, the factory - gate prices are expected to follow the upward trend. The daily production increased to around 200,000 tons, at the highest level in the same period. The demand side has no possibility of export due to strict legal inspections. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizers in Central and North China decreased, and the demand for urea declined. The previous supply - demand imbalance was alleviated to some extent, and the market sentiment cooled down. The urea enterprises started to accumulate inventory in April, and the total inventory increased from 700,000 tons to 1.06 million tons. After the factory - gate prices were lowered, the transaction improved. It is expected that the acceptance of downstream and traders will cool down again, and the short - term trend will be volatile [5] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term volatility (mainly short positions) [6] - Arbitrage: Long - term layout of 9 - 1 positive spreads below 0 [6] - Options: Double - selling [9]

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc fluctuate and decline, closing with a negative line and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with more long - position increases. The market may experience a volatile rebound in the short term. Technically, the price closed below the long - term system with weak moving - average support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the strong area, while the trend indicator declined, with the dominance of the short - side force narrowing. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2506 will experience a volatile rebound [21]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In February 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1245 million tons, consumption was 1.1079 million tons, with a surplus of 16,600 tons. From January to February, production was 2.253 million tons, consumption was 2.2275 million tons, with a surplus of 25,500 tons. In February, global zinc ore production was 984,000 tons, and from January to February, it was 1.963983 million tons. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 22,610, and the basis was +325, showing a bullish signal [2]. 3. Inventory - On April 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,125 tons to 192,225 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 1,687 tons to 5,168 tons compared to the previous day, which is bullish [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On April 22, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 239,290 lots, with a turnover of 2.66163096 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 236,507 lots, an increase of 6,947 lots [3]. 5. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On April 22, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of zinc ingots was 22,610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of galvanized sheets was 4,023 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of galvanized pipes was 4,431 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,225 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,290 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 21,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 6. National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From March 27 to April 21, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 108,800 tons to 78,000 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 6,100 tons, and compared with last Monday, it decreased by 10,800 tons [5]. 7. Zinc Warrant Report - On April 22, the total SHFE zinc warrant was 5,168 tons, a decrease of 1,687 tons compared to the previous day. Among them, the warrant in Shanghai decreased by 530 tons, in Guangdong decreased by 1,107 tons, in Jiangsu remained unchanged, in Zhejiang remained unchanged, and in Tianjin decreased by 50 tons [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On April 22, the total LME zinc inventory was 192,225 tons, a decrease of 3,125 tons compared to the previous day. The注销 ratio was 18.94% [8]. 9. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On April 22, the price of 0 zinc ingots from Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,940 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; from Huludao Smelter was 24,580 yuan/ton, up 390 yuan; from Zhongjin Lingnan (Nanhua) was 22,670 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; from Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 22,370 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; from Henan Yuguang was 22,710 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; from Baiyin (Honglu) was 22,440 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [14]. 10. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in March 2025 - The planned production in March was 466,100 tons, and the actual production was 440,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09%. The capacity utilization rate was 81.38%, and the planned production in April was 454,800 tons [16]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On April 22, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade ranged from 3,200 to 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee for 48% grade was 40 US dollars/kiloton [18]. 12. SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2506 contract on April 22, the total trading volume of futures companies was 238,380 lots, a decrease of 37,833 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position was 83,053 lots, an increase of 2,494 lots, and the total short - position was 76,905 lots, an increase of 1,582 lots [19].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rebar futures, the AI intelligent model of Great Wall Futures shows that the main contract 2510 will operate in the range of 2900 - 3150 this week, and the pressure area at 3150 should be noted. The price is in a downward channel on the daily - line level, and the main force has a relatively obvious short - bias attitude. Spot customers can consider a selling hedging strategy [7]. - For iron ore futures, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 670 - 730, and attention should be paid to the pressure at around 730. The daily line is in a downward channel, and spot customers can consider a selling hedging strategy [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The AI intelligent model of Great Wall Futures indicates that the main contract 2510 of rebar futures will operate in the range of 2900 - 3150 this week, and the pressure area at 3150 should be focused on. In the third week of April 2025, rebar production was 229000 tons, apparent consumption was 273000 tons, steel mill inventory was 200000 tons, and social inventory was 782000 tons. The daily - line price is in a downward channel, and the main force has a short - bias attitude. Spot customers can consider a selling hedging strategy [7]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: Steel spot customers could consider implementing a selling hedging strategy step - by - step [10]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: Steel spot customers can consider implementing a selling hedging strategy step - by - step. The AI intelligent model shows that the weekly operating range of rebar futures is 2900 - 3150, and attention should be paid to the pressure area above 3150 [11]. - **Suggestion for spot enterprise hedging**: Implement an appropriate - proportion selling hedging strategy according to the AI intelligent model of Great Wall Futures [12]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - The data sources of this report are Wind, MySteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [15]. Iron Ore Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The main contract of iron ore futures is expected to operate in the range of 670 - 730, and attention should be paid to the pressure at around 730. In terms of supply, the global shipment volume of iron ore last week was 2.907 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2.525 million tons, steel enterprise inventory was 9.052 million tons, and the inventory at domestic major ports was 14.056 million tons. The daily - line price is in a downward channel, and spot customers can consider a selling hedging strategy [34]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The AI variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of iron ore futures is in a downward channel, and a selling hedging strategy can be considered [37]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: Based on the comprehensive analysis of the AI intelligent model data of Great Wall Futures, spot inventory customers can consider implementing a selling hedging strategy step - by - step and pay attention to the pressure at around 730 [37]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - The data sources of this report are Wind, MySteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [40].

有一些新手，往往有这个困惑：有的职业交易员，好像经常做错，经常止损，为什么收益那么高？ 同样，很多交易者，沉湎于各种技术指标的分析判断，试图找到最有效的进场点。他们往往看重和追求 的都是高胜率，他们可能花了很多精力，希望找到一种"绝世武功"，可以在期货市场无往而不胜。 也许在某一段行情中你以为可以成功，而这种所谓的成功很多时候回导致信心爆棚，加大仓量，最终往 往是被他自认为找到的"绝世武功"搞得"走火入魔"，在复杂的市场行情中反噬其身。 PART.01 没有人能保证自己一直保持"高胜率" 在期货交易中，胜率固然是非常重要的一环，如果你能有超高的胜率，那么你赚钱的几率自然就高。但 是，我们必须清醒地认识到：市场是复杂多变的，没有一个技术系统能保证永远适用。花太多精力在提 高胜率，可能见效甚微。因此期货交易者想成长，就必须走出片面"追求胜率"的误区。 1、"就专业交易员而言，其获利交易百分率经常低于40％"。 《高级技术分析》，作者Bruce：1975年就开始从事交易的市场老手，并在1976年就进入交易系统的研 究和设计领域，是美国一流的交易系统设计及运用专家。 2、"如果期货交易有20％的成功率，那他就非常走运 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The fundamental drivers for coking coal are limited, and it is expected to experience short - term low - level fluctuations. The supply side still faces significant pressure, while the current low - valuation of the futures market restricts downward movement but lacks upward drivers [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The coking coal main contract 2509 opened higher and closed lower today, with the closing price center continuing to rise. Domestic mine production is increasing, and imported coal resources are abundant. Although the downstream steel and coking enterprises'开工 has slightly increased, overseas resource prices are under pressure, and the supply side pressure is large. Considering the macro - risks and the current situation of the futures market, short - term coking coal should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [1]. Futures Market - The coking coal main contract JM2509 opened higher and then weakened, closing at 985.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 0.81%. The trading volume was 191,200 lots, and the open interest was 579,900 lots, an increase of 25,172 lots [3]. - For the coking coal 2505 contract, the top 20 long positions were 157,132 lots, an increase of 9,762 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 184,115 lots, an increase of 16,329 lots [5]. Spot Market - The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was quoted at 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Meng 5 main coking raw coal was 830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Basis - The futures closing price of the main contract was 908 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 232 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Supply - From April 4th to April 10th, the operating rate of 523 domestic sample coking coal mines was 87.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.84 percentage points. The daily average output of clean coking coal was 782,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,800 tons. On April 5th, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 181,035 tons, a daily increase of 63,990 tons [7]. Demand - From April 4th to April 10th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 648,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 474,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2,402,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,900 tons [10].

【冠通研究】 今日焦煤主力低开后偏强震荡，收盘价格重心略有上移。国内矿山复产加快，产 量继续抬升；蒙煤通关车辆回升，进口煤资源充足，口岸库存高位运行。下游钢 焦企业开工小幅回升；国内焦煤竞拍价格上涨，出货好转，但是海外资源价格仍 承压，蒙煤二季度长协价下调。美国加征关税影响我国从美进口煤炭，但其他替 代资源充足，供给端压力仍较大。近期贸易冲突加剧黑色系波动，短期看盘面受 宏观风险影响仍较大，但焦煤估值偏低，亦缺乏上涨驱动，短期低位震荡思路对 待。 【策略分析】 短期低位震荡，上下空间有限 【期货行情】 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约低开后偏强震荡，最终收盘于 905.5 元/吨， +7.5 元/吨，涨跌幅+0.84%。成交量 19.22 万手，持仓 18.71 万手，-23382 手， 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 焦煤 2505 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 短期低位震荡，上下空间有限 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 14 日 2 数据来源:钢联，冠通期货 需求方面：4 月 4 日-4 月 10 日当周，下游独立焦企日均产量 64. ...

【冠通研究】 基本面偏弱，盘面宽幅震荡 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 11 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约高开高走震荡收涨，今日期市较本周相对波动幅度稳定。上游 工厂报价小幅上扬，前期降价后近日出货较顺畅，部分工厂预收订单增加，受期 货价格飘红影响，交投氛围良好。供给端，本周日产环比下降，春季多发临检， 但前期检修企业也有复产，日产稳定为主，华锦、渭河等有检修计划，天庆田原 等本周复产。需求端，下游情绪尚好，成交有所好转。目前接货以复合肥工厂为 主，但工厂原料价格近日下降，利润回暖，企业成品库存增加，工厂开工负荷降 低，春季肥已达尾声，夏季肥进展有限，预计本月开工负荷继续走低。稻农需备 肥零星跟进，下一轮集中备肥系 6 月左右农需备肥。本期上游工厂出现累库，系 清明假期期间下游接货力度不足，但也表现出下游需求整体不足，工厂出现累库。 整体来说，尿素基本面依然偏弱，盘面小幅上涨，但弹性预计不足，需求端环比 走弱，盘面宽幅震荡为主，05 合约关注 1780-1900 元/吨区间宽幅震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1855 元/吨高开低走，盘面震荡收涨，最终 收于 1870 元/吨，收成 ...