美国参议院在本周一仅以一票的微弱优势，通过了对白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰出任美联储理事的提名；同样是在周一，美联储理事库克则在经历 了与特朗普政府的官司后，"侥幸"留在了美联储理事会中。不难预见的是，这两位美国总统特朗普眼里的"亲信"与"眼中钉"，很可能会先在美联储内 部上演一场"口水战"。而特朗普在本周早些时候，则已明确呼吁美联储"大幅降息"！ 抛开这些政治纷争，投资者也料将密切聚焦美联储主席鲍威尔本周的表态，并寻找从最新点阵图与季度经济预测探寻未来数月利率走向的线索。这些 预测将与利率决议将于北京时间周四凌晨2点同步公布，鲍威尔的新闻发布会则会在30分钟后开始。 9月17日，正如同有着"新美联储通讯社"之称的著名记者Nick Timiraos所形容的那样，今晚美联储即将召开多年来最为奇特的一场议息会议…… 外界普遍预计，受近期就业增长放缓推动，美联储官员将在周三为期两天的会议结束时降息25个基点。在上月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储 主席鲍威尔其实就已暗示了降息的临近，当时他转向优先考虑就业问题，而非挥之不去的通胀担忧。 然而，尽管美联储时隔9个月后的重启降息，本身就已足够引人瞩目，但今晚这个特殊议息 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储官员预计将于周三通过降息来支撑日益疲软的美国劳动力市场，此举标志着政策的转向——此前出于对关税引发通胀的担忧，美 联储此前全都按兵不动。 这一政策转折正值美国总统特朗普持续施压之际，他本周一直在推动"大幅降息"。政治戏剧性事件也为本周政策会议的出席阵容带来悬念，不过名单很可能 于周一晚间最终确定——当晚参议院确认了一位新任美联储理事，而一项迟来的法院裁决允许另一位官员暂时留任。 美联储观察人士预计，官员们在就业和通胀问题上的不同观点将阻止他们承诺激进的降息步伐。 "除非劳动力市场显示出持续恶化的迹象，否则每一次降息都会比上一次更困难，" 美国银行高级经济学家阿迪亚·博哈维表示。 投票者构成 尽管央行的利率决定将是许多美联储观察人士的主要焦点，但围绕制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)组成所出现的异常情况，在会议前一直是新闻焦 点。 特朗普的盟友斯蒂芬·米兰于周二上午宣誓就职，及时赶上了这次会议。特朗普提名他填补美联储的一个空缺席位。米兰因拒绝辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主 席一职而受到抨击。相反，他选择了无薪休假，这让人质疑他在美联储任职期间能否保持独立行动的承诺。 与此同时，一家意见 ...

美联储官员预计将在周三通过降息来支撑疲软的美国劳动力市场，将标志着政策的转变。此前由于担心 关税引发通胀，美联储今年以来维持利率不变。美国总统特朗普也在持续施压，他本周再次推动"大幅 降息"。政治插曲也为谁将出席本周的政策会议带来了悬念，不过出席会议的人员名单很可能周一晚间 已经确定，之前参议院及时确认了新任美联储理事的提名，且上诉法院裁决允许美联储理事库克暂时留 任。投资者还将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，解读最新的经济预测，判断未来几个月利率的可能 走向。相关预测将于华盛顿时间下午2点与利率决定一同公布，鲍威尔的新闻发布会将在30分钟后举 行。美联储观察人士预计，由于官员们在就业和通胀方面存在分歧，预计不会承诺激进的降息步伐。 ...

Market Expectations - A quarter-point rate cut is widely anticipated, with 25 basis points being almost certain, while any other decision could lead to significant market volatility [2][3] - Historical data shows that after rate cuts, particularly when the market is near all-time highs, stocks tend to move higher, with 20 out of 20 instances indicating a positive trend [5] Economic Indicators - The labor market is a key factor influencing the expected rate cut, with inflation metrics also playing a crucial role in determining future cuts [3][4] - Consumer discretionary stocks are outperforming staples, indicating a bullish market sentiment, while high beta stocks are also hitting new highs [6] Tariff Concerns - Tariff uncertainties have diminished for the remainder of the year, although there is potential for these concerns to resurface in the future [7][8] - The impact of tariffs has been absorbed by companies with higher margins, allowing them to maintain profitability despite potential cost increases [9] Investment Strategies - There is a positive outlook for international stocks, particularly in Europe, due to attractive valuations and earnings growth, while small caps are viewed as underweight compared to large caps [10][11] - The market anticipates six rate cuts over the next 15 months, but the economy may perform better than expected, potentially leading to fewer cuts [11] Consumer Sentiment - Retail and consumer data are showing resilience, suggesting that the economy may continue to grow, supported by increased capital expenditures as companies resume delayed investments [12][13]

Core Insights - Retail sales in the U.S. increased significantly in August, marking the third consecutive month of growth, indicating robust consumer spending despite concerns over inflation and a weakening labor market [1] Group 1 - The rise in retail sales suggests that U.S. households are maintaining healthy spending levels [1] - The growth in retail sales occurs amidst ongoing worries about inflation and a softening labor market [1]

Group 1 - The UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to July remains stable at 4.7%, unchanged from the previous three-month periods ending in May and June [1] - The annual growth rate of wages, excluding bonuses, decreased from 5.0% in June to 4.8% [1] - Investors expect the Bank of England to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4% during the upcoming meeting, following a cautious approach to rate adjustments since August of last year [1] Group 2 - There are indications of a cooling labor market, with preliminary estimates showing a decrease of 8,000 employees from July to August, following a reduction of 6,000 in the previous month [1]

东吴证券近日发布有色金属行业跟踪周报：本周（9月8日-9月12日）有色板块本周上涨 3.76%，在全部一级行业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中贵金 属板块上涨5.13%，能源金属板块上涨1.35%，工业金属板块上涨4.10%，小金属板块上涨 4.39%，金属新材料板块上涨2.45%。工业金属方面，本周市场已逐步开始定价联储降息带 来的流动性宽松，随着旺季的深入下游需求有小幅好转，本周金属价格环比上行。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 回顾本周行情（9月8日-9月12日），有色板块本周上涨3.76%，在全部一级行业中排名 靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中贵金属板块上涨5.13%，能源金属板 块上涨1.35%，工业金属板块上涨4.10%，小金属板块上涨4.39%，金属新材料板块上涨 2.45%。工业金属方面，本周市场已逐步开始定价联储降息带来的流动性宽松，随着旺季的 深入下游需求有小幅好转，本周金属价格环比上行。贵金属方面，本周美国商品通胀延续上 行趋势，而服务业通胀有所放缓，以及劳动力数据的下行趋势。在劳动力市场趋弱的情况 下，关税带来的通胀上行与降息带来的名义利率下行将延 ...

It's Fed week and the battle is heating up. Today, the Senate votes on President Trump's pick for the Federal Reserve Board, Steven Myron. If confirmed, he could be in his seat by tomorrow's meeting just as the Fed is expected to cut interest rates.Welcome to the Big Money Show. I'm Brian Brenberg along with my co-hosts Lou Bassin, Lydia Who, Jackie D'Angelus, and with us for the hour, making money host Charles Payne. Welcome one and all.All right, President Trump writing on True Social that Fed Chairman Je ...

Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury market is showing significant sensitivity to economic cooling signals, with a notable decline in yields, particularly in the long end, where the 30-year Treasury yield dropped by 30 basis points since the beginning of the month[6] - The 5-year Treasury yield fell nearly 10 basis points following the release of August non-farm payroll data, reflecting a strong correlation with the Bloomberg Labor Market Surprise Index[7] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised non-farm employment numbers down by 910,000 over the past year, marking the largest revision since 2000, which indicates potential issues with statistical methods in the post-pandemic era[8] Labor Market Insights - The New York Fed's survey indicates that the probability of unemployed individuals finding a job within three months has decreased to 44.9%, while the probability of being unemployed within the next year has risen to 39.1%[8] - The market widely anticipates three rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year due to the weakening labor market[8] Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stance has shifted to a more dovish tone, emphasizing employment downside risks and removing the "zero lower bound" language from policy statements, reinforcing the "maximum employment" goal[14] - Political pressures on the Fed are increasing, with President Trump publicly pressuring Powell and pushing for appointments of pro-Trump individuals to the Fed Board, raising concerns about the Fed's independence[15] Market Dynamics - The current market pricing for long-term rates reflects caution due to uncertainties surrounding policy, fiscal sustainability, and the Fed's independence, with long-term rates potentially offering attractive duration exposure as short-term rates decline rapidly[17] - Short-term Treasuries are viewed as a "safe haven" but carry structural risks due to their high reflection of rate cut expectations, which compresses yield potential[19]

根据高盛策略师，股市已开始忽略疲软的劳动力数据，并预计明年股价将再度加速。David Kostin的团 队表示，本周美联储降息预期将进一步支撑股市。补充称，股票投资者乐观地认为，近期劳动力市场的 放缓将只是暂时的。指出劳动力市场降温是"企业利润的顺风"，此外还为美联储降息打开了大门。利润 率通常追踪价格与投入成本（包括劳动力）之间的差额。预计劳动力成本增长每变化100个基点，将对 标普500指数每股收益产生0.7%的影响。 来源：滚动播报 ...