Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: The near - end TA start - up increased slightly, polyester load declined further, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis of mainstream suppliers decreased, and spot processing fees weakened significantly. PX domestic start - up remained stable, with some overseas maintenance, PXN weakened slightly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained stable. Entering the inventory accumulation stage, the slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. Since the spot processing fee has been compressed to an extremely low level, there may be a marginal reduction in supply. Given the relatively low absolute inventory, attention should be paid to the opportunity of increasing processing fees at low prices [2]. - **MEG**: The near - end domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to increase month - on - month, Saudi Arabian devices were restarting, and port inventory would accumulate early next week. Downstream stocking levels increased, and the basis remained stable. With no reduction in Iranian and ethane supplies and the increase in domestic production start - up, it is gradually entering the inventory accumulation stage. With low actual inventory and relatively high valuation, it is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [8]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - end supply from Ningbo Dafafa decreased, and the start - up dropped to 92.3%. Production and sales remained stable month - on - month, and inventory was basically maintained. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn continued to decline, with raw material inventory decreasing and finished product inventory increasing, and benefits remained low. With acceptable benefits and inventory pressure, there is no obvious reduction or increase in supply. With weak domestic demand and high export growth, processing fees are expected to be range - bound [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [8]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 8 - 14, 2025, crude oil decreased by 1.2, PX CFR increased by 13, PTA internal - market spot increased by 13, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 81. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions for 2509 increased by 6 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end TA start - up increased slightly, polyester load declined, inventory accumulated, and the basis decreased [2]. MEG - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the MEG internal - market price increased by 14, and the basis for 09 increased by 67 [8]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to increase, Saudi Arabian devices were restarting, and port inventory would accumulate [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the daily change in spot price was - 15, and the market basis for 08 was around + 0 [8]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end supply from Ningbo Dafafa decreased, and the start - up dropped to 92.3%. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn continued to decline [8]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the daily change in Thai glue was - 5, and the weekly change in US - dollar Thai standard was 40 [8]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded [8]. Aromatic Hydrocarbons (Benzene - related Products) - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased by 8, and the domestic profit of styrene changed from 170 to 221 [13]. - **Production and Market Situation**: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS showed different trends, and the production profits of each product also fluctuated [14].

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 纪元菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月14日 | 7月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9000 | 8820 | J20 | 1.69% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 302 | 435 | -130 | -29.89% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | a300 | 9200 | 100 | 1.09% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | -185 | -15 | -180 | -1200.00% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8350 | 8300 | 50 | 0.60% | | | 基差(新疆) | 455 | ୧୫5 | -230 | -33.58% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 7月14日 | 7月11日 | 消歧失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2508-2509 | -140 | 35 ...

菜油、鸡蛋、沪铜等少数品种收跌 10日下跌品种较少，仅菜油、鸡蛋、碳酸锂、沪铜、燃料油等少数品种收跌，且跌幅均不足1%。由于蛋鸡存栏处于高位，且淘鸡进度缓慢，鸡蛋价格今年 持续偏弱运行，上半年的五一、端午均未能显著提振鸡蛋价格，近日高温多雨天气对于蛋价形成抑制，同时随着08合约临近限仓，多头离场打压期货价格， 按照多年走势规律来看，8、9月份涨价概率仍存，但幅度或不及往年。 （文章来源：新华财经） 截至10日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1404.66点，较前一交易日上涨15.73点，涨幅1.13%；中证商品期货指数收报1947.45点，较前一交易日上涨 21.8点，涨幅1.13%。 多晶硅势不可挡玻璃涨超5% 7月10日，商品市场情绪持续高涨，多晶硅及黑色建材类商品表现强势。其中多晶硅主力合约连续第四个交易日大涨，今日以5.50%的涨幅领涨国内商品市 场。现货方面，机构数据显示，本周多晶硅报价大幅上调25%-35%，单今日涨幅就超过10%，此外下游硅片价格也显著上调。不过，多数分析认为多晶硅基 本面仍然偏弱，虽然当前盘面受到了乐观情绪支撑，但下游需求不足，可能难以够承接如此高价的原料。此外，供应端，据我 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for caustic soda increased by over 3% [1] - Oxide aluminum, No. 20 rubber, rubber, pure benzene, and coking coal rose by more than 2% [1] - Shipping rates on the European route increased by 2% [1] Group 2 - Glass, coking coal, soda ash, styrene, pulp, and red dates all saw increases of over 1% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity market experienced a significant increase on July 9, with polysilicon prices rising over 5%, coking coal up over 3%, and other commodities like pure benzene, coke, and alumina also seeing gains of over 2% [1][2] - Polysilicon prices were driven by production cut expectations, leading to a 5.03% increase after a previous day of limit-up trading, with macro policy guidance contributing to a substantial rise in spot prices [2][3] - Coking coal's main contract saw a rise of 3.81%, supported by improved market sentiment and a 2.6% increase in the operating rate of washing coal plants, indicating better demand and reduced inventory levels [3] Group 2 - The copper market faced volatility due to the Trump administration's announcement of a 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S., leading to a surge in U.S. copper prices while London and Shanghai copper prices weakened [4] - The price disparity between U.S. and European copper futures reached an extreme level, with a difference of $2400 per ton, compared to a historical average of $300 per ton, indicating significant market disruptions [4] - China's bonded zone copper premium rose above $150, suggesting that domestic copper prices may remain resilient due to tight upstream funding and low deliverable copper inventories [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating U.S. tariffs on gold prices and the overall direction of commodity futures, highlighting the analysis of popular trading instruments and strategies for capturing trading opportunities [1] Group 1 - U.S. tariffs are causing volatility in the market, particularly affecting gold prices which are showing a downward trend [1] - The article features insights from a seasoned futures researcher, Leo, who will analyze market trends and share practical trading strategies [1] - The live session will cover order flow, volume-price distribution, and real-world case studies to help traders identify potential trading opportunities [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - On July 8, polysilicon prices surged by 7%, hitting the daily limit, while the shipping index for European routes increased by over 7% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1390.13 points, up 5.19 points or 0.37% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - The strong performance of polysilicon is attributed to expectations of price increases and a reduction in production capacity, with major manufacturers collaborating to raise prices to alleviate cost pressures [3] - Current market expectations for polysilicon have not been fully digested, with inventory levels reported at 27.2 million tons, indicating ongoing accumulation [3] Group 3: Shipping Market Insights - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes reported a value of 2258.04 points, reflecting a 6.3% increase compared to the previous period [2] - Market optimism persists despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the region [2] Group 4: Egg and Styrene Market Trends - Egg futures continued to decline, dropping over 1% and reaching a five-year low due to high inventory levels and strong supply [4] - Styrene futures also fell by over 1%, with weak demand and high supply contributing to the price drop [4]

2025年07月08日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：特朗普征税函显示对日韩等 14 国征收 25%到 40%不等关税、8 月 1 日生效，欧盟或接近协议。市 | | | | | | | | | | | | 场再度抛售美股美债，风险偏好下行。华东华南平水铜现货升水 70 元和贴水 50 元成交。伦敦结构 77 美金 | | | | | | | | | | | 铜 | back。精废价差 1600 元附近。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：铜供应端紧张难以缓解，等待回撤企稳买入机会。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日-1. ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆生长状况良好，叠加贸易忧虑情绪升温，美豆期价震荡偏弱运行。国内大豆市场供应充裕。 油厂高开工率背景下，豆粕产量持续快速增长，油厂豆粕库存连续 8 周低位回升。在国内油厂远期买船依 旧谨慎的背景下，下游市场对远期供应收紧的预期支撑了采购需求。油厂豆粕提货量持续高位，饲料企业 物理库存天数低位回升。短期豆粕期价震荡运行。 策略参考 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：受到国际油价下挫的拖累，油脂期价整体偏弱运行。同时随着 ...

1. Natural Rubber Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 1.2 Core View Short - term macro - warming and state reserve purchase news boost rubber prices, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro events [2]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 4th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 110, with a growth rate of 169.23%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36% [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 865 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 14.29%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.07% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a growth rate of 157.52%; Indonesia's production increased by 6,200 tons to 200,300 tons, a growth rate of 3.19%; India's production increased by 2,300 tons to 47,700 tons, a growth rate of 5.07%; China's production increased by 38,900 tons to 97,000 tons. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 7.64 percentage points to 70.41%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 1.89 percentage points to 63.75%. In May, domestic tire production decreased slightly, while tire exports increased by 7.72%. The total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 13.35% [2]. 2. Log Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2.2 Core View From a fundamental perspective, the demand for logs enters the off - season during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the shipment volume from New Zealand is expected to decrease seasonally. The market is gradually entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but recent positive news has boosted market sentiment [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 4th, the 2509 log contract closed at 795 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The prices of major deliverable spot products remained unchanged. The price of medium - sized A - grade radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter [5]. - **Supply**: In May, the port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 13.20%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a decline of 7.94% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of June 27th, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.36 million cubic meters, a slight increase from the previous week. The daily average log shipment volume was 65,700 cubic meters, an increase of 21,000 cubic meters from the previous week [5]. 3. Glass and Soda Ash Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For soda ash, although the recent policy has boosted the market sentiment, the supply - demand pattern is still in excess. In the long - term, there will be a further profit - reduction process. For glass, the market sentiment has improved recently, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to reverse the situation. In the short term, both are affected by market sentiment, with large price fluctuations [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.34%, while the 2509 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.25% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.08%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.73% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 1.08 percentage points to 82.21%, and the weekly production decreased by 0.8 tons to 709,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 0.1 tons to 15,780 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 4,020 tons to 94,390 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased slightly, while the soda ash factory inventory increased by 5 tons to 278,000 tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 5 tons to 228,000 tons [6]. 4. Industrial Silicon Industry 4.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 4.2 Core View In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly due to production cuts. In the long term, the increase in production after resumption will intensify the pressure of oversupply. Attention should be paid to the production - cut plans of polysilicon and the impact of coking coal prices. In the context of anti - involution policies, the arbitrage strategy of buying polysilicon and short - selling industrial silicon is favorable [8]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 4th, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.57% from the previous day. The basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increased by 80 yuan, a growth rate of 11.59% [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.75%; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton; the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 25% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a growth rate of 6.5%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 25,300 tons to 209,300 tons, a growth rate of 13.75% [8]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 22,800 tons to 150,100 tons, a decline of 13.19%. The social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 552,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.85% [8]. 5. Polysilicon Industry 5.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 5.2 Core View In the short term, the polysilicon futures market fluctuates greatly under the background of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply increases while the demand decreases, and the price is still under pressure. However, policy expectations have a great impact on the market, and prices are expected to rise in the long term. Attention should be paid to risk management [9]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 48.42%; the basis of cauliflower - like material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.13% [9]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 460 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.31%. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers decreased by 15,400 GW to 11,900 GW, a decline of 11.46%. The weekly production of polysilicon increased by 400 tons to 24,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.69%. In June, the production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1% [9]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 200 tons to 27,200 tons, a growth rate of 0.74%. The silicon wafer inventory decreased by 890 GW to 19,220 GW, a decline of 4.43% [9].