1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers individual ratings for each variety: - **Bearish**: Crude oil (Short - term bearish rebound), LPG (Cautiously bearish), L (Bearish consolidation), PP (Bearish consolidation), MEG (Cautiously bearish), Methanol (Cautiously bearish), Urea (Cautiously chase up), LNG (Cautiously bearish), Asphalt (Cautiously bearish) [1][2][4] - **Bullish**: PVC (Oscillating strongly), PTA (Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks) [1][26] - **Neutral**: Glass (Low - level oscillation), Soda Ash (Bearish consolidation) [4] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and seasonal factors. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product, emphasizing the importance of risk management due to geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand changes. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Short - term bearish rebound, with long - term downward pressure due to supply surplus and seasonal demand weakness [1][7] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause price fluctuations. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the arrival of the demand off - season exerts downward pressure on prices. Key variables include US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term, pay attention to Middle East geopolitical progress. SC focus range: [465 - 480] [9] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens as the geopolitical premium of oil prices declines. Chemical demand weakens, with a decrease in PDH operating rates. Although port inventories have decreased, the overall fundamentals are bearish [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price center is expected to continue to decline. Short - term, due to uncertainties in oil prices, the fundamentals are bearish. PG focus range: [4150 - 4250] [13] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [14] - **Main Logic**: Standard product devices are returning, leading to weaker basis and monthly spreads. The industry is slightly accumulating inventory, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended that the industry consider selling hedges on rallies. With the return of devices, production is expected to increase this week, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season [17] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] [17] PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [18] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and it follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The current supply - demand situation is weak, with a 22% parking ratio, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are low, providing cost support [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [6650 - 6850] [21] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - **Core View**: Oscillating strongly [22] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation and export rush support near - month prices, with stronger basis and monthly spreads. Although the short - term export situation is good, the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [25] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [5000 - 5200] [25] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - **Core View**: Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks [26] - **Main Logic**: Valuation has been repaired, with improved processing fees. Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. PX supply - demand is in a weak balance. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the outlook is positive [27] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 05 contract and consider buying on pullbacks. TA05 focus range: [5110 - 5230] [27] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [28] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation has been repaired, but supply - demand is weakening. Domestic device operating rates have increased, overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, and port inventories are rising. Downstream demand is seasonally weak [29] - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 focus range: [3710 - 3810] [30] Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: The main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months. Domestic device operating rates are high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. Demand has weakened significantly, but there is short - term bullish support due to geopolitical conflicts and rising overseas natural gas costs [33] - **Strategy**: The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is weak. Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. MA05 focus range: [2235 - 2295] [35] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously chase up [2] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strong. The overall operating load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short - term but is expected to weaken during the holiday season. The export situation is relatively good, but the spread of the arbitrage window has narrowed [37] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focus range: [1770 - 1800] [39] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [40] - **Main Logic**: The impact of the cold wave on gas prices has weakened. Although the demand for heating in winter provides support, the supply is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices [43] - **Strategy**: NG focus range: [3.370 - 3.665] [44] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [45] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause oil price fluctuations. The supply - demand of asphalt is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost is affected by the supply of Venezuelan crude oil [48] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks due to geopolitical uncertainties. BU focus range: [3300 - 3400] [49] Glass - **Core View**: Low - level oscillation [50] - **Main Logic**: The suspension of coal exports from Indonesia has pushed up coal prices, and the basis has weakened. The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand situation, with high - level inventory slightly decreasing. The daily melting volume has increased, and supply reduction is needed to digest inventory [53] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. FG focus range: [1070 - 1120] [53] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [54] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand changes are small, and it rebounds weakly following the cost. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 - million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and short - term device maintenance has increased, putting pressure on supply [57] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further maintenance intensifies. SA focus range: [1190 - 1240] [57]

2025年以来国际油价走势 ◎林玉莲 记者 徐锐 回望2025年，全球石油市场主要由供需基本面主导，由紧平衡转向明显过剩。地缘冲突仅对油价形成阶 段性支撑，但未能扭转下跌趋势。 展望2026年国际油价走势，王海博预计，在基本面主导的情况下，布伦特原油期货的均价将处于每桶60 美元至65美元的区间；地缘冲突会是市场最大的变数，在地缘冲突的主导下，这一指标可能会攀升至每 桶70美元至75美元。 具体而言，全球石油库存或延续上涨趋势，进而压制国际油价中枢。王海博称，尽管欧佩克+（产油国 联盟）已决定今年3月继续暂停增产，但考虑到其他国家产量情况，预计2026年全球石油供应仍将增长 130万桶/日，最终达到1.063亿桶/日；反观需求端，预计2026年全球石油需求为1.043亿桶/日，增幅与 2025年基本持平。 2026年，美联储货币政策对油市影响几何？王海博说，市场预期美联储至少降息2次，累计50个基点， 美元指数将进一步下行，但仍难对油价形成有效支撑。 从国内市场来看，2025年，原油产量达2.16亿吨，创下历史新高，2026年原油产量或将保持2亿吨稳 产。就消费端而言，2026年国内石油消费总量基本保持稳定， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the international gold and silver markets reflects underlying vulnerabilities in the global financial system, exacerbated by low interest rates, high debt leverage, geopolitical conflicts, and policy uncertainties [1] Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - On January 29, spot gold prices briefly exceeded $5,600, followed by a significant decline to around $4,653 by February 2, while silver prices dropped over 35% from a peak of $128 on January 30, marking the largest intraday drop in history [1][2] - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to a sudden shift in market sentiment, driven by the hawkish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy, particularly following the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Fed Chair [2] - Profit-taking and technical adjustments contributed to the volatility, as indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold and silver reached extreme levels, prompting a sell-off when negative news emerged [2][3] Group 2: Structural Weaknesses in the Market - The influx of speculative and leveraged funds into the precious metals market created a fragile trading environment, where high leverage led to forced liquidations during price reversals, amplifying the downward pressure on prices [3] - The market's liquidity evaporated rapidly during the downturn, as market makers reduced their positions due to increased risk exposure, resulting in a lack of depth that exacerbated price declines [3][4] Group 3: Broader Financial Implications - The recent turmoil in the precious metals market signals a shift in global financial mechanisms, highlighting the changing behavior of risk-averse investors who have increasingly turned to gold and silver amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions [4] - The role of the U.S. dollar and interest rates in the global financial cycle has become more sensitive, with expectations of higher rates and a stronger dollar leading to capital outflows from emerging markets and tightening global financing conditions [4][5] - Structural risks in the global financial market, including reliance on quantitative trading and derivatives, have created a scenario where asset price volatility can lead to rapid market corrections, raising concerns about the stability of the pricing mechanisms in the silver market [5] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - While the recent volatility has primarily affected precious metals, the overall impact on the financial system appears manageable for now, with major stock indices and credit spreads remaining stable [6] - However, the heightened volatility serves as a warning sign of potential risks within the financial system, as accumulated asset bubbles and high debt levels could lead to significant market disruptions if new adverse events occur [6]

Group 1 - The overall trend in the commodity market is upward, with strong performance in precious metals, black metals (coal and construction materials), crude oil, and non-ferrous metals [2][15] - Key commodities showing strength include gold, silver, tin, coking coal, fuel oil, glass, and PVC, suggesting a preference for bullish operations around these top-performing products [2][15] - Global market dynamics are influenced by inflation expectations supporting commodities, geopolitical conflicts, and energy supply disruptions, with precious metals leading due to safe-haven and anti-inflation demand [2][15] Group 2 - The real estate sector in Hong Kong showed a rebound, driven by bullish sentiment from some private equity firms, although this does not necessarily indicate a rise in real estate prices [3][16] - Policies in cities like Shanghai may not support upward expectations for real estate prices, indicating that a recovery in the sector is premature [3][17] - The A-share market saw brokerage and liquor stocks supporting the market, suggesting potential issues with previously overheated stocks [4][18] Group 3 - For the glass futures (2605), a bullish strategy is recommended with a buying range of 1100-1115 points, an initial stop-loss of 1070-1082 points, and a target profit range of 1132-1142 points [19] - For PVC futures (2605), a similar bullish strategy is advised with a buying range of 5120-5160 points, a stop-loss of 5000-5050 points, and a target profit range of 5230-5280 points [20] - The overall trading results indicate an 8% profit for glass futures, achieving a phase-specific profit target, while PVC futures continue to show a clear bullish trend [22][23] Group 4 - The effectiveness of strategies is based on supply contraction, inventory reduction, and strong expectations driven by capital, with successful risk management practices in place [25] - Highlights of risk control include timely adjustments to stop-loss levels and advising investors on reducing positions to mitigate potential risks [25] - The current commodity market is experiencing high volatility, necessitating close monitoring of global macro data and domestic policy changes for dynamic strategy adjustments [25]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者何一华 李未来 北京报道 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 本次涨价政策落实之后，用油成本有所上涨。卓创资讯测算，油箱容量在50升的小型私家车加满一箱油 将比之前多花8元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口也就是 2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。 与此同时，物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启 前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加452元左右。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升，92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶；布伦特原油期货价格更 ...

【#金价本周反弹近600美元#券商：维持中长期看多立场】#现货黄金本周反弹近600美元#2月4日，现货 黄金重新站上5000美元，日内涨幅扩大逾2%，较本周低点反弹近600美元。中国银河证券首席策略分析 师杨超对@中新经纬 表示，随着特朗普提名立场偏鹰的凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，政策路径的模糊 性与政治干预担忧，使黄金成为对冲货币政策不确定性的核心资产。杨超认为，尽管金价短期剧烈震 荡，仍维持中长期看多立场，核心逻辑未变，但市场结构呈现高波动、高投机特征。短期若地缘冲突缓 和、美联储明确维持高利率，则可能触发大规模获利回吐，对价格构成重大下行压力。（宅男财经）# 金饰价格涨到1600元# ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反复拉扯，油价反弹。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，美伊谈判仍有较大 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩格局仍 | | ★ | | 未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩油产量 | | | | 变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，成本端油价回落，液化气跟随油价回落。成本端油价短期 | | LPG | | 受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利好；供需方面， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存 | | | | 在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 标品装置陆续回归，仓单增加，基本面偏空，短期产业可关注逢高套保机 | | | 空头盘整 | 会。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增加，农膜需求淡季，基差跌 | | ★ | | 至同期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | | 地缘扰动仍存，短期跟随成本震荡 ...

但2月2日油价盘中跌幅一度超过5%。瑞银在其最新发布的一份研究报告中称，本轮油价的大幅攀升， 核心驱动力并非供需基本面的根本性改善，而是伊朗局势升级引发的风险溢价上升。 瑞银强调，油价上涨的可持续性高度依赖地缘冲突的演变。若伊朗及周边地区的能源基础设施未受到实 质性冲击，油价将面临显著回调风险，这与2025年6-7月的市场走势具有相似性——当时地缘紧张局势 缓解后，油价出现了阶段性回落。 01 关键变量：霍尔木兹海峡关闭概率低 原本走势强劲无比的黄金白银突然崩盘，看空情绪也传导到了能源市场。 霍尔木兹海峡的通航状态是影响全球石油贸易的"生命线"，也是本次报告重点关注的核心风险点。 2026年开年以来，受伊朗相关地缘局势紧张影响，布伦特原油价格累计上涨近20%至每桶约70美元。 伊朗供需：产量稳定，出口合理 作为石油市场的关键风险变量，伊朗的石油生产与出口格局并未出现大幅异动。根据国际能源署(IEA) 数据，过去几个月伊朗石油产量保持稳定，2025年12月原油日均产量达到340万桶，展现出较强的生产 韧性。 出口方面，伊朗原油出口量从2025年10月190万桶/日的近期高点回落至约150万桶/日，但仍处于近期形 ...

商品表现 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 2 日收盘，国内期货主力合约大面积飘绿，沪银、铂、钯、碳酸 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huazi Technology (300490) is actively advancing project acceptance despite challenges posed by complex international political, economic, and military situations, as well as geopolitical conflicts [1] Group 1 - The company is facing multiple factors affecting its overseas projects, including international political and economic conditions [1] - The company is committed to pushing forward with project acceptance despite these challenges [1]