Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in commodity prices, domestic demand, external demand, production, and pricing, highlighting the fluctuations in gold, copper, and oil prices, as well as the recovery in housing sales and the impact of tariff adjustments on exports [1][2][4][6]. Domestic Demand - New housing sales are improving, with a narrowing decline in growth rates, while second-hand housing and passenger car sales are decreasing. The average selling price of home appliances is rising [2]. - Service consumption has seen a marginal improvement year-on-year, despite a post-holiday decline in demand. Movie box office revenues have decreased, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing [2][11]. - The retail of passenger cars is declining, while wholesale sales are increasing, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [2]. External Demand - The recent unexpected reduction in China-US tariffs has led to a rebound in direct exports to the US. The current effective tariff rate is 10%, with 24% of tariffs suspended, which may support continued export activities [2][3][12]. Production - Progress in trade negotiations has boosted market sentiment, particularly in the steel sector, where some steel mills have raised factory prices, leading to a slight decrease in blast furnace operating rates and an increase in steel prices [4][5]. - In the chemical sector, prices of PTA, polyester chips, and POY have significantly rebounded due to improved macro sentiment and maintenance of production facilities [5]. Pricing - Gold prices have retreated due to the reduction in tariffs and improved global risk appetite, with expectations of short-term fluctuations. Long-term support for gold prices remains due to unsustainable US debt and the diminishing dollar system [6]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to improved economic expectations and future demand from European revitalization and post-conflict reconstruction in Ukraine [6]. - Oil prices are recovering from previous lows but may face long-term pressure from global energy transitions and potential increases in US oil supply [6].

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 原油上升，金、铜震荡上行。 内需： 房、车销售回升，假期出游热电影淡。 ① 新房、乘用车销量增速升，二手房降，家电销售均价增速上行。5月新房销量增速降幅收窄，但二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售、批发增速均有 回升，但受成本抬升，需求预期悲观等因素影响，半钢胎开工率超季节性回落；家电月均销售均价同比增速上行。五一假期家电价格多有回升。 ② 假期出游热度高涨，假期国内出游人次同比增长6.4%，出游总花费同比增长8.0%，纳入监测范围的国家级夜间文化和旅游消费集聚区累计夜间客流量7595.44万 人次，同比增长5.2%。 不过，电影市场表现惨淡，五一档票房收入不到7.5亿元，同比去年同期下降45.9%。 外需： 对美出口量继续下行，但抢转口仍有支撑。 ① 港口高频数据显示，美国总进口、自中国进口货物到港量增速均大幅下滑，指向对美出口量有所减少。而东南亚地区港口停靠量大幅上升，反映抢转口仍在继 续。 ②美国正式对全球关键汽车零部件加征25%的关税，中美经贸谈判将于周末开始，关注会后通报结果。 生产： 节后库存阶段性累积，开工有所放缓。 ① 受部分钢厂铁水转移和检修减产影响 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - In April, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 49%, down from 50.5% in March[7] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, compared to 50.8% in the previous month[7] - The new export orders index dropped significantly by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, indicating potential pressure on future exports[2] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The new orders index declined to 49.2%, while the production index remained near the threshold at 49.8%, suggesting weak demand but relatively high production levels[2] - Internal demand showed resilience, with the domestic orders index only down 2.3 percentage points to 49.9%[2] - Despite a decline in new export orders, foreign trade cargo volume increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 1.3%, attributed to prior "export rush" orders[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - Key sectors like high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw significant PMI declines of 0.8 and 2.4 percentage points, respectively, while the consumer goods sector's PMI fell only 0.6 percentage points to 49.4%[3] - The construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in real estate, although infrastructure construction accelerated[3] - The service sector PMI experienced a minor decline of 0.2 percentage points to 50.1%, supported by strong performance in productive service industries[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report highlights increased uncertainty in external demand due to tariff hikes, while emphasizing the need to monitor changes in domestic demand[4] - The central political bureau meeting in April stressed the importance of stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, indicating potential support for domestic demand in manufacturing[4]

屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 4月30日，国家统计局公布4月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值50.5%；非制造业PMI为50.4%、 前值50.8%。 核心观点：4月新出口订单已明显下滑，但内需如基建与消费品行业PMI仍维持韧性。 4月PMI整体与分项读数均有走弱，但相对来看新订单指数更弱，生产仍维持较高水平。 4月制造业PMI 边际下行1.5pct至49%；剔除供应商配货指数的PMI也回落1.5pct。结构上生产、新订单指数均有回落，边 际分别下行2.8、2.6pct。由于PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看， 新订单指数下行至49.2%，而生产指数仍在荣枯线附近（49.8%），反映本月需求偏弱，生产景气水平相 对较高。 需求内部呈现分化特征，其中新出口订单指数降幅较大，但内需订单更具韧性。 生产景气相对较高的情 况下，4月外贸货运量同比上行0.7pct至1.3%，主因前期订单在"抢出口"；而4月新出口订单指数大幅回落 4.3pct至44.7%，或意味着后续出口有较大压力。对比之下，内需订单指数本月下滑2.3pct，但绝对水平仍 在荣枯 ...

外需： 4月出口或回落，关税不确定性对出口仍有支撑。 ①关税对外需影响初步显现，4月韩国前20天出口增速回落，我国集装箱吞吐量等出口数量指标有所下行。但考虑到关税不确定性仍在，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢 出口需求，将对外需有一定支撑。 核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房销售走弱、车持平上月，室外出游热度较高。 ①房销售走弱、车持平上月，家电销售均价同比增速跌多涨少。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房价升量减。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速持平上月，批发有所 回升，受市场需求疲软影响，轮胎企业调整生产计划，导致半钢胎开工回落；本周家电价格多有上行。 ② 本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流上升，一线城市至海口的航班均价转为上行。不过，电影市场表现仍旧惨淡，持续位于历年同期低位。五一假期临近， 建议关注假期消费情况。 生产： 产能调控需加强，传统基建有望加速恢复。 ①由于4月以来多地错峰生产执行力度减弱，竞争加剧，本周水泥价格续降，企业库容比续升，终端需求暂弱，本周水泥发运率继续回落。 ②本周石油沥青开工率继续上行，同比回正，样本建筑工地资金到位率续升，同时水泥基建直供量超过去年 ...

月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房、车销售走弱，服务消费表现分化。 ①房地产、汽车销售均回落，家电销售均价下行。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房销量增速也有回落，3月 70城新房、二手房价格各线城市同比降幅继续收窄。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速由升转降，批发有所回升， 家电价格下行。 ②随着天气转暖，室外游玩需求增多，本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流量双双转升。不过，电影市场 表现仍旧惨淡，上周电影票房位于历年同期低位，同时上周酒店入住率和可售房间均价双双下行，均不及去年 同期。 外需： 出口数量下行，美计划对中国船舶加征港口费。 核 心 内 容 ①4月关税影响或初步显现，集装箱吞吐量和离港船只载重等出口数量指标有所下行，但考虑到关税政策朝令 夕改，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢出口需求。 ②美计划对所有停靠在美的中国制造船舶根据所载货物量收取费用，具体行动将分半年后和三年后两个阶段执 行。 生产： 制造业或延续"抢出口"，传统基建恢复仍缓。 ①本周制造业用工量价双双季节性回升，但同比超过去年同期，或反映出制造企业"抢出口"趋势仍在延续。 ②本周螺纹钢产量增速转降，库存低位续降，价格继续 ...

生产： 制造业或延续"抢出口"，传统基建恢复仍缓。 ①本周制造业用工量价双双季节性回升，但同比超过去年同期，或反映出制造企业"抢出口"趋势仍在延续。 核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房、车销售走弱，服务消费表现分化。 ①房地产、汽车销售均回落，家电销售均价下行。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房销量增速也有回落，3月 70城新房、二手房价格各线城市同比降幅继续收窄。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速由升转降，批发有所回升， 家电价格下行。 ②随着天气转暖，室外游玩需求增多，本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流量双双转升。不过，电影市场 表现仍旧惨淡，上周电影票房位于历年同期低位，同时上周酒店入住率和可售房间均价双双下行，均不及去年 同期。 外需： 出口数量下行，美计划对中国船舶加征港口费。 ①4月关税影响或初步显现，集装箱吞吐量和离港船只载重等出口数量指标有所下行，但考虑到关税政策朝令 夕改，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢出口需求。 ②美计划对所有停靠在美的中国制造船舶根据所载货物量收取费用，具体行动将分半年后和三年后两个阶段执 行。 ②本周螺纹钢产量增速转降，库存低位续降，价格继续 ...

一是结构上产需同步向好。 一季度，外需增速高于生产和内需。"抢出口"效应下以人民币计价的出口同比增 速达6.9%。内需提振政策效果延续，社零和投资分别增长4.6%、4.2%。其中，基建（11.5%）和制造业投资 （9.1%）保持高增，房地产投资（-9.9%）拖累减弱。生产端工业增加值增长6.5%，增速为2022年以来的次高 值。值得注意的是，供给强于需求的格局仍在继续，一季度产能利用率（74.1%）和产销率（94.6%）均略超 季节性回落。 图1：3月内外需求增速均有提升 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 图2：消费提振，投资分化 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 二是节奏上前稳后高。 3月多数经济数据增速较1-2月改善。生产加快修复，3月规模以上工业增加值同比增速 上行1.8pct至7.7%。需求端以基建投资好转最为显著，3月增速大幅提升2.6pct至12.6%。社零增速表现亮眼，3 月增速提升1.9cpt至5.9%，达到2020年以来的最高值【注释1】。制造业投资增速微升，房地产投资增速微 降。 图3：房地产销售降幅略有收窄，投资降幅再度扩张 一、总览：供需两旺 一季度我国经济开局良好，实际GDP同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly gold and oil, while highlighting the challenges in domestic demand and the impact of tariff policies on external trade [1][6]. Domestic Demand - Real estate and automobile sales are weakening, with new home sales growth turning negative in April and second-hand home sales declining while prices rise [2]. - The average daily box office revenue during the holiday was only 126 million yuan, about half of last year's figures, although per capita spending on travel increased slightly [2]. - Post-holiday consumer activity has decreased, with declines in visitor numbers at Shanghai Disneyland, shopping districts, hotel occupancy rates, and subway passenger volumes compared to the same period last year [2]. External Demand - The escalation of tariffs between the US and China continues, with Trump suspending additional tariffs but maintaining a 10% base tariff, leading to over 100% cumulative tariffs on China since his administration began [3]. - South Korea's export growth rebounded in early April, with improvements in shipping rates and loaded ship departures, possibly due to shifting trade policies creating export demand [4]. Production - Steel and cement production remain strong, but inventory levels are rising. Steel prices have dropped significantly, particularly for export-related products, while rebar production is increasing due to remaining profit margins [5]. - Cement prices have also begun to decline, although both cement shipment rates and mill operation rates have improved compared to last year, indicating a faster supply growth despite slow recovery in infrastructure and housing demand [5]. Commodity Prices - Gold prices have reached new highs, while copper prices have rebounded and oil prices have experienced a bottoming out and subsequent rebound [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies has led to a decrease in recessionary trades, contributing to the rise in copper prices and fluctuations in oil prices [6]. - The lack of confidence in the US dollar system, exacerbated by ineffective deficit reduction plans, has prompted market participants to sell US assets, driving gold prices to new highs [7]. Future Focus - Attention will be on the developments regarding US tariffs and the economic data for March, including export figures [10].

Core Insights - China's industrial and service sectors experienced rapid growth in January and February, but domestic demand remains weak and external demand has also declined, indicating a need for further optimization in the supply-demand structure [1] Production Sector - The industrial added value growth rate exceeded market expectations, driven primarily by transportation equipment, metal products, and equipment manufacturing [1] - The service sector maintained a high growth rate, with modern service industries showing particularly strong performance [1] Demand Side - Investment growth in January and February significantly surpassed market expectations, largely due to strong performance in infrastructure investment and resilient manufacturing investment, while the decline in real estate investment has narrowed [1] - Consumer data for January and February fell slightly below market expectations, with commodity consumption growth remaining flat compared to December of the previous year; however, restaurant consumption saw a rebound due to the Spring Festival [1] - In specific categories, consumption related to trade-in subsidies has shown a decline in consumer sentiment [1] Future Outlook - The degree of weakening in export chain conditions and the effectiveness of domestic demand, particularly in boosting consumption, are two key areas to watch moving forward [1]