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猪价磨底关注产能去化进展,双十一国货宠食品牌销售表现良好:农林牧渔周观点(2025.11.3-2025.11.9)-20251110
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-10 08:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pig farming industry, suggesting a left-side layout opportunity as the industry enters a phase of accelerated capacity reduction driven by both fundamental and policy factors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the pig farming industry is experiencing a bottoming out of prices, with a notable increase in the utilization rate of breeding facilities, leading to a potential acceleration in capacity reduction. The current pig cycle is nearing its downward tail, making it an opportune time for left-side investments [2][3]. - The pet food market is showing strong performance from domestic brands during the Double Eleven sales event, indicating a growing market for domestic pet food products. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of leading companies in this sector [2][3]. - The white feather broiler chicken market is witnessing stable chick prices and a slight recovery in chicken meat prices, suggesting a focus on leading companies for long-term value amidst a backdrop of abundant supply [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 0.8%, mirroring the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. The top five gainers included Pingtan Development (25.7%), Green Kang Bio (11.7%), and Huazi Industry (11.3%) [3]. Pig Farming - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average selling price of external three yuan pigs at 11.9 yuan/kg, down 3.6% week-on-week. The average loss for self-breeding sows was -41.1 yuan/head, marking the sixth consecutive week of losses [2][3]. - The report highlights that the number of breeding sows has decreased by 0.77% month-on-month, indicating a proactive capacity reduction in response to ongoing losses [2][3]. Pet Food - The Double Eleven sales event revealed that domestic brands dominated the pet food market, with significant representation in the top-selling brands. The report suggests that the domestic pet food market remains a high-growth sector despite short-term export challenges [2][3]. Broiler Chicken Farming - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.45 yuan/chick, with a week-on-week increase of 1.47%. The average selling price of broiler chickens was 3.49 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight recovery [2][3].
农林牧渔周观点:猪价磨底关注产能去化进展,“双十一”国货宠食品牌销售表现良好-20251110
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-10 08:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [46]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is experiencing a bottoming out of prices, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, which may accelerate capacity reduction [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on left-side investment opportunities in the pig farming sector as the current pig cycle approaches its downward tail [2][3]. - The domestic pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, with strong performance from local brands during the "Double Eleven" sales event, suggesting a positive growth trajectory for leading companies in this segment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index rose by 0.8%, mirroring the performance of the CSI 300 Index [3]. - The top five gainers included Pingtan Development (25.7%), Green Kang Biotechnology (11.7%), and Huazi Industrial (11.3%) [3][10]. Pig Farming - Pig prices are stabilizing, with a national average selling price of 11.9 CNY/kg as of November 9, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.6% [2]. - The average weight of pigs sold is at a three-year high of 128.3 kg, indicating a potential for improved profitability as the industry undergoes capacity reduction [2][3]. Pet Food - Domestic pet food brands performed exceptionally well during the "Double Eleven" sales, with top brands being predominantly local [2]. - The report suggests that the pet food market remains a high-growth area, with recommendations to focus on leading companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The price of white feather broiler chicks remains stable, with an average selling price of 3.45 CNY/chick, indicating a reasonable profit margin in the industry [2]. - The report notes that the supply of broiler chickens is expected to remain ample throughout 2025, emphasizing the importance of focusing on leading companies for long-term value [2].
新希望单季扣非降99%难挡猪周期 有息负债572亿多家子公司收环保罚单
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2025-11-09 23:32
Core Viewpoint - New Hope (000876.SZ) continues to face operational challenges despite a recent investment partnership with state-owned enterprises to enhance its pig farming business, reflecting ongoing struggles in the pig cycle and financial pressures [2][4][19]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, New Hope reported revenue of approximately 805 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 7.60 billion, up 395.89% [5][9]. - However, the third quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in net profit to 512.55 million, a drop of about 99% year-on-year, indicating ongoing financial strain [10][19]. - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 69.49% as of September 2025, with interest-bearing liabilities around 572 billion, highlighting substantial debt pressure [6][13]. Market Conditions - The fluctuation in pig prices has heavily influenced New Hope's financial results, with a recovery in prices contributing to earlier profit increases, but a recent decline in prices has led to renewed challenges [9][10]. - The average selling price of pigs exceeded 14 yuan/kg from January to July 2025 but fell below 12 yuan/kg in October 2025, indicating a downward trend in market conditions [10]. Environmental Issues - New Hope has faced multiple penalties for environmental violations across its subsidiaries, raising concerns about compliance and operational sustainability [7][15][17]. - Specific incidents include fines for improper wastewater management and repeated violations, which could impact the company's reputation and operational capabilities [15][16]. Strategic Initiatives - New Hope's recent collaboration with state-owned enterprises involves a total investment of 28.7 billion to establish a joint venture focused on pig farming, aiming to innovate within the industry and support rural revitalization efforts [3][20]. - The joint venture plans to acquire three of New Hope's subsidiaries and establish 16 new companies, utilizing a "corporate + farmer" model for pig farming [20].
农产品日报-20251107
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:32
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: None - **Sell Recommendations**: None - **Hold Recommendations**: None - **Neutral Recommendations**: None - **Specific Ratings for Commodities**: - **Douyi (Soybean 1)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Douyou (Soybean Oil)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Biaowangyou (Labeled Oil)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Doupo (Soybean Meal)**: ★☆☆ (One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - **Caipo (Rapeseed Meal)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Yaoyou (Medicinal Oil)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Yumi (Corn)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Shengzhu (Live Pigs)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Jidan (Eggs)**: ★☆☆ (One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of each product, and gives investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][4][6][7][8]. Summary by Commodity Soybean 1 - The main contract of Douyi significantly reduced its positions, and the price declined from the high level, affected by surrounding commodities. The price of US soybeans dropped from the high due to the easing of trade optimism. CGC started soybean procurement, with a preference for high - quality soybeans. The supply of domestic high - protein soybeans is tight this year due to adverse weather, and the market has optimistic expectations for them. Short - term policy guidance should be continuously monitored [2]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - The Dalian futures contract continued to fluctuate widely and correct. The tariff for importing US soybeans in China is now 13%, and there is still no price advantage for commercial imports. As of November 6, the CNF price of US Gulf/West soybeans (December shipment) is $506/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) is $500/ton. With similar CNF prices and a 10% tariff difference, commercial purchases are unlikely. As the import cost rises, the crushing margin has improved, and it is expected that there will be a destocking situation for domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year. The USDA will release the November supply - demand report on November 14. Opportunities for buying on dips after the easing of Sino - US trade relations should be followed [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price of US soybeans dropped from the high due to the easing of trade optimism. After the recent rise, the spread between the near - month FOB premium of US soybeans and that of Brazil has recovered to a higher level than the same period last year. The market is expected to focus on the guidance of the USDA report. Palm oil stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound momentum on the disk is still weak. After the recent decline, the bearish momentum of palm oil has been continuously released, and the short - selling momentum at the price stage has eased. Whether the performance at this position is sustainable should be monitored. The probability of a short - term stabilization of palm oil with a bearish near - term supply - demand situation should be followed [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The expected pressure on the price of overseas oilseeds has a negative impact on the domestic rapeseed futures prices, and the main contracts of rapeseed products declined slightly. Canadian farmers are less willing to sell rapeseed due to low prices, and exports have increased slightly but remain sluggish. Although the news of strengthened rapeseed trade between Canada and Pakistan has boosted the export prospects of Canadian rapeseed, the market capacity of Pakistan is limited. The price of rapeseed futures is expected to remain under pressure. Domestic coastal oil mills have shut down due to a shortage of rapeseed. The arrival of Australian rapeseed in China should be monitored. The price difference between rapeseed products and other competing products is still high, which suppresses the consumption cost - effectiveness of rapeseed products. It is recommended to change the short - term long strategy for rapeseed meal to a wait - and - see approach and focus on the marginal changes at the oilseed import end [6]. Corn - Dalian corn futures fluctuated weakly. The increase in the supply of new corn in Northeast China has decreased, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. In Shandong, the supply has increased, and the number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing plants in the morning is 1353. Sino - US relations may ease, and after the tax reduction announced by the Tariff Commission of the State Council, the tariff for importing US corn in China is now 11% within the quota and 75% outside the quota. The signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement should be continuously monitored. The change in the enthusiasm of grain listing in the Northeast should be followed, and currently, the market is considered to be in a weak bottom - range oscillation, and the inflection point is not clear [6]. Live Pigs - The price of live pig futures fluctuated within a narrow range, and the overall position increased. The spot price also showed a narrow - range consolidation. According to Yongyi data, the inventory of breeding sows decreased month - on - month in October, continuing the de - stocking trend for two consecutive months. Fundamentally, on one hand, due to the continuous recovery of production capacity, the number of live pig slaughterings will continue to increase in the later stage. On the other hand, the rebound of pig prices after the National Day was mainly driven by the entry of second - fattening farmers. However, second - fattening will increase the later - stage slaughtering pressure, and the average slaughter weight of live pigs this year is at the highest level in the past three years. The slaughter of second - fattened pigs will further impact the spot market. The futures market has priced in the potential supply pressure in advance. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom "W" shape. The low pig price in October is likely the first emotional bottoming, and it is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottoming in the first half of next year under the background of continuous supply pressure and off - season demand [7]. Eggs - Egg futures first declined and then rose, with an overall reduction in positions. The spot price increased today. The in - production inventory decreased slightly month - on - month in October but is still at a historically high level. The chick replenishment data in October remained sluggish, which is beneficial for improving the long - term supply outlook. However, the far - month contracts already contain a high price premium. The number of culled laying hens in the spot market increased, and the culling age decreased, indicating that the sentiment of culling old hens has increased. The disk has maintained a strong pattern recently, and opportunities for shorting on highs in the fourth quarter should be awaited [8].
国投期货农产品日报-20251107
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 12:52
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: Neutral, represented by white stars [1] - Soybean Oil: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Palm Oil: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Soybean Meal: Slightly bullish, represented by one red star [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Corn: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Live Pigs: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Eggs: Slightly bullish, represented by one red star [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Traders should pay attention to policy guidance, USDA reports, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different investment opportunities and risks, and appropriate investment strategies should be adjusted according to market changes [3][6][8] Summary by Category Bean No.1 - The main contract of Bean No.1 significantly reduced positions, and the price fell from a high due to the drag of surrounding commodities. The price of US soybeans also dropped from a high. The purchase of soybeans by Sinograin started, with a premium for high - protein soybeans. The supply of domestic high - protein soybeans is tight this year, and short - term attention should be paid to policy guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The continuous futures contract of soybeans continued to fluctuate and correct widely. The tariff for importing US soybeans in China is now 13%, and there is still no price advantage for commercial imports. With the increase in import costs, the crushing margin has improved, and it is expected that there will be a destocking situation for domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the long - buying opportunities after the Sino - US trade eases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The price of US soybeans dropped from a high due to the easing of trade optimism. After the recent rise of US soybeans, the spread of the near - month FOB premium to Brazil has been repaired higher than the same period last year. The market is expected to turn to focus on the guidance of the USDA report. Palm oil stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound momentum on the disk is still not strong. Short - term attention should be paid to whether palm oil with a bearish near - end supply - demand situation can stabilize [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The expected pressure on the price of foreign oilseeds drags down the domestic rapeseed futures price. The low price of Canadian rapeseed makes farmers less willing to sell, and exports are still sluggish. The domestic coastal oil mills have shut down due to the shortage of rapeseed. It is recommended to change the short - long strategy of rapeseed meal to a wait - and - see attitude and focus on the marginal changes in the oilseed import end [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures fluctuated weakly. The increase in the supply of new corn in the Northeast has decreased, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply in Shandong has increased. After the tax cut by the State Council Tariff Commission, the tariff for importing US corn in China is 11% within the quota and 75% outside the quota. Attention should be paid to the signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement and the change in the enthusiasm of grain listing in the Northeast [6] Live Pigs - The futures price of live pigs fluctuated within a narrow range, and the funds increased positions overall. The spot price also showed a narrow - range consolidation. The inventory of breeding sows decreased month - on - month in October, continuing the trend of capacity reduction for two consecutive months. It is expected that the pig price may hit the bottom again in the first half of next year [7] Eggs - The egg futures first fell and then rose, with an overall reduction in positions. The spot price rose today. The inventory of laying hens decreased slightly month - on - month in October but is still at a historically high level. The number of culled chickens in the spot market increased, and the culling age decreased. The disk has maintained a strong pattern recently, and short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter should be awaited [8]
生猪开启去化周期,养殖ETF(516760)盘中拉升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 02:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig farming industry is experiencing a shift towards capacity reduction due to declining pig prices and policy-driven measures, which may lead to a long-term increase in pig prices [1][2] - In Q1-Q3 2025, pig farming enterprises achieved a revenue of 341.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.32%, and a net profit of 22.18 billion yuan, up 14.29% year-on-year [1] - The total number of pigs slaughtered by 12 major pig farming companies reached 123.99 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.45% [1] Group 2 - The current market conditions show weak pig prices, both in reality and expectations, which, combined with policy initiatives, are likely to initiate a capacity reduction in the pig farming industry [2] - The latest price-to-book ratio (PB) for the livestock farming index tracked by the breeding ETF is 2.59 times, which is lower than 80.93% of the time over the past five years, indicating a favorable valuation [2] - The industry is expected to see a contraction in supply, which may enhance the profitability and valuation of quality pig farming companies, suggesting a positive outlook for the breeding ETF [2]
周期之困中,“清远鸡王”天农食品能靠赴港破局?
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-06 13:27
Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Tianong Group Co., Ltd. (Tianong Foods), a leading supplier of Qingyuan chicken, is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its capital reserves amid the cyclical pressures of the poultry and pig markets [1][9]. Company Overview - Established in 2003, Tianong Foods has evolved from a regional poultry farming enterprise to one of China's leading high-quality meat and meat product providers, with a vertically integrated operation covering breeding, ecological farming, feed production, slaughtering, food processing, and brand marketing [2][3]. - The company holds a dominant position in the Qingyuan chicken market, with a projected market share of approximately 59.3% in 2024, significantly surpassing its competitors [2][3]. Financial Performance - Tianong Foods reported fluctuating revenues over the years, with revenues of approximately 39.52 billion RMB in 2022, 35.96 billion RMB in 2023, 47.76 billion RMB in 2024, and 22.21 billion RMB in the first half of 2025 [2][4]. - The company's gross profit margins have also shown instability, with margins of 16.3%, 1.6%, 18.8%, and 15.5% during the same period, reflecting the volatility in its earnings [4]. Product Segmentation - The company offers a comprehensive product range, including Qingyuan chicken, other native chickens, and pig products. The revenue from pig products has shown an upward trend, while revenue from Qingyuan chicken has been more volatile [3][4]. - Revenue from pig products was 25.87 billion RMB in 2022, 22.14 billion RMB in 2023, 32.03 billion RMB in 2024, and 14.72 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing share of this segment [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The company faces challenges from the "chicken cycle" and "pig cycle," which have led to significant price fluctuations in the market. The average price of Qingyuan chicken has dropped by 21% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [7][8]. - The pig market is currently in a prolonged downturn, with high supply and low prices, impacting the company's profitability. The average price of pigs fell from nearly 2,700 RMB per head in 2022 to 1,989.8 RMB in 2023, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the sector [8][9]. Strategic Implications - The IPO is seen as a strategic move for Tianong Foods to bolster its financial position and enhance its resilience against market fluctuations. The company's established brand and integrated supply chain are viewed as key advantages, but the volatility in its performance raises concerns about its business model's robustness [9].
新股前瞻 | 周期之困中,“清远鸡王”天农食品能靠赴港破局?
智通财经网· 2025-11-06 13:23
Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Tianong Group Co., Ltd. (Tianong Foods), a leading supplier of Qingyuan chicken, is seeking to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant move in the capital market amid the challenges posed by the cyclical nature of the poultry and pig industries [1][9]. Company Overview - Established in 2003, Tianong Foods has evolved from a regional poultry farming enterprise to one of China's leading high-quality meat and meat product suppliers, focusing on a vertically integrated operation covering breeding, ecological farming, feed production, slaughtering, food processing, and brand marketing [2]. - The company holds a dominant position in the Qingyuan chicken market, with a projected market share of approximately 59.3% in 2024, significantly surpassing competitors [2][3]. Financial Performance - Tianong Foods reported fluctuating revenues over the years, with revenues of approximately RMB 39.52 billion in 2022, RMB 35.96 billion in 2023, RMB 47.76 billion in 2024, and RMB 22.21 billion in the first half of 2025 [2][4]. - The company's gross profit margins have also shown instability, with margins of 16.3%, 1.6%, 18.8%, and 15.5% during the same period, reflecting the volatility in profitability [4]. Product Segmentation - The company offers a comprehensive product range, including Qingyuan chicken, other native chickens, and pork products. The revenue from pork products has shown an upward trend, while revenue from Qingyuan chicken has been more volatile [3][4]. - Revenue from pork products was RMB 25.87 billion, RMB 22.14 billion, RMB 32.03 billion, and RMB 14.72 billion over the reporting period, indicating a growing share of the overall revenue [3]. Market Dynamics - The company faces challenges from the "chicken cycle" and "pig cycle," which have led to significant price fluctuations in the market. The average price of Qingyuan chicken has dropped by 21% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [6][7]. - The pig market is also under pressure, with the average price of pigs declining from nearly RMB 2,700 in 2022 to RMB 1,989.8 in 2023, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industry [8]. Strategic Implications - The IPO is seen as a strategic move to enhance capital reserves and improve risk resilience amid the dual pressures of cyclical downturns in the poultry and pig markets. The company's established brand position and integrated supply chain are viewed as core advantages [9].
国投期货农产品日报-20251105
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 12:49
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal (★★☆), Rapeseed Meal (★★☆) [1] - **Slightly Bullish**: Soybean Oil (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Corn (★☆☆) [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean (☆☆☆), Palm Oil (☆☆☆), Egg (☆☆☆) [1] - **No Rating Information**: Live Pig [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides short - term investment strategies and key points to watch [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean - Soybean prices rebounded from the low after a few days of decline, and the spot purchase price was stable. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans narrowed. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback strength of domestic soybeans [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the adjustment of China's import soybean tariff policy, the soybean meal futures continued to rise by 1.49%. After the tax cut, the import tax rate of US soybeans was changed to 13%, but there was still no price advantage. The increase in US soybean prices would raise the cost of imported soybeans and soybean meal. Some USDA reports will resume in November. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans were consolidating after a rebound. Domestic soybean crushing was at a loss, and both oil and meal were strong, with meal slightly stronger than oil. The domestic soybean oil main contract was stronger than palm oil. Palm oil faced the risk of a short - term callback due to high inventory in Malaysia, higher - than - expected production in Indonesia, and weak export demand. Future attention should be paid to the supply from the origin and the performance of the soybean market [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The positions of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil main contracts increased, with the trend of strong meal and weak oil continuing. The supply of rapeseed meal was expected to be tight due to the low inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills. The market focused on Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian economic and trade relations. A short - term strategy of being bullish on rapeseed meal and bearish on rapeseed oil was maintained [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures were oscillating weakly. The supply of new corn in Northeast China was stable, and the logistics was tight. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. After the tax cut, the import tax rate of US corn was changed to 11% within the quota. The signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement needed to be continuously monitored [7] Live Pig - Live pig futures rebounded sharply from the low, with a reduction of 10,000 lots in positions. The spot price continued to fall. Due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the pressure of second - fattening, the pig price was expected to have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Egg - Egg futures increased their positions by 40,000 lots strongly, with multiple contracts hitting new highs. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The increase in vegetable prices provided support for egg prices. The in - production inventory was still at a high level, and the chicken - chick replenishment in October was low. The short - term trend of the futures was strong, and opportunities to short on highs in the fourth quarter could be waited for [9]
全行业面临阶段性亏损 猪价反弹能持续吗?
经济观察报· 2025-11-05 08:34
猪价短期内的强劲反弹势头,会带来生猪养殖业的困境反转 吗? 作者: 邹永勤 封图:本报资料室 "10月以来,猪价快速下跌,全行业面临阶段性亏损。"2025年11月4日,全国生猪养殖龙头企业温氏股份(300498.SZ)在其发布的公告中如是称。 根据中国农业信息网数据,今年以来全国瘦肉型白条猪肉出厂价格指数(下称"猪价")持续下跌,并于10月13日创下了近七年新低,报14.55元/公斤。 但也正是从14.55元/公斤起,猪价开始企稳回升,至11月4日报收于16.17元/公斤,三周时间上涨了11.13%。 那么,猪价短期内的强劲反弹势头,会带来生猪养殖业的困境反转吗? 国信期货农产品分析师覃多贵在接受经济观察报记者采访时表示,从消费端来看,虽然每年11月至次年1月是消费逐步增加的时间段,但消费旺季并不 意味着猪价便会上涨,"考虑到前期仔猪出生情况及二次育肥带来的供应压力后移,预计本轮猪价反弹的持续性有限"。 全行业面临阶段性亏损 Wind平台信息显示,包括温氏股份、牧原股份(002714.SZ)等在内,当前生猪养殖业的上市公司共有7家(不包括新三板)。根据刚刚披露的2025年第三季报, 上述7家猪企第三季度的业绩 ...