文 ｜ 杨帆 玛西高娃 李想 本轮价格周期中，居民消费需求不足带来的CPI低位运行压力格外值得关注。本文详细分析了CPI 中四类核心参数（食品、原油、核心商品、核心服务）的变化趋势与内在逻辑，并基于此预测 2 0 2 5年全年CPI走势。中性情景假设下，我们预计前三个季度CPI同比读数可能仍在负值区间徘 徊，2 5Q4将出现明显回升。向后看，国内政策有充足储备应对外部"风高浪急"，我们预期国内逆 周期政策将以财政和货币为主要抓手出台增量政策保障经济的平稳发展和物价的温和回升。宏观经 济运行跟踪方面，3月PMI数据较上月回升，但系去年1 0月以来首次低于过去5年均值，反映制造 业景气有所回落；服务业、建筑业PMI较历史同期差距均有所扩大，非制造业景气较1 - 2月有所下 降。 本文详细拆解了影响CPI走势的四类核心参数： ▍ 参数一：食品，猪肉和牛肉这两类CPI高影响力品类年内或仍有一定价格下跌压力。畜肉在 CPI中占比在3%~ 4%之间，是主导CPI食品项波动的重要因素。 2 0 2 4年前三个季度，猪周期位于上行周期，全年为CPI贡献了约0 . 1个百分点的上涨动能。展望 2 0 2 5年，生猪存栏量指引下 ...

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,370.03, up by 0.15% [2] - The agricultural sector's performance was mixed, with the agricultural and forestry sector declining by 0.94% during the week [3] Agricultural Sector Insights - The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to bottom out and recover, with a positive outlook for Haida Group [3] - The average price of live pigs in key provinces showed mixed results, with prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 14.65, 15.62, and 14.57 CNY/kg respectively [3] - The overall financial situation in the pig farming industry is under significant pressure, with a focus on reducing debt rather than rapidly increasing production capacity [3] - Recommendations include companies like Wen's Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, and New Hope in the pig farming sector [3] Chemical Raw Materials Sector - The new materials sector saw a decline, with the new materials index down by 2.54% [4] - The domestic aviation SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) pilot program has entered its second phase, with a focus on green transformation in the aviation industry [5] - The global SAF market is expected to face supply-demand tightness, with a projected global production of 2.1 million tons in 2025 [5] Solar Energy Sector - The solar energy sector saw a significant increase in installed capacity, with 39.5 GW added in January-February 2025, a 7.49% increase year-on-year [7] - The price of polysilicon remained stable, with the average price at 40.0 CNY/kg [8] - Recommendations for investment include companies like Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar, focusing on new technology and supply-side improvements [8] Coal Industry Insights - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with the reference price for thermal coal at 682 CNY/ton, down by 1.45% [12] - The metallurgical coal sector is expected to stabilize as downstream demand improves, with a focus on macroeconomic policies [14] - Investment recommendations include companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, which are seen as undervalued [18] Precision Injection Molding Sector - The company specializes in precision injection molding, focusing on lightweight trends in automotive and robotics sectors [19] - The company is expanding its production capacity and has established stable partnerships with major automotive and appliance manufacturers [21] - The projected net profit for the company is expected to grow significantly over the next few years, with a strong outlook for the lightweight materials market [21] Retail Sector Insights - Miniso reported a revenue of 16.45 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.84% [25] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence while optimizing its domestic operations [24] - The expected revenue growth for Miniso is projected to accelerate in the coming years, with a strong emphasis on improving profit margins [24]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 3、供需错配循环。 能繁母猪存栏量的增减直接决定未来生猪供给，但市场供需关系的变化因生产周期而滞后，形成"供过于求→价格下跌 →产能出清→供不应求→价格上涨→产能扩张"的循环。 猪周期的核心矛盾是生产周期刚性与价格信号弹性的冲突。能繁母猪存栏量作为"慢变量"，通过10-13个月的滞后期主导生猪供给，而市场 需求的"快变量"变化，如消费淡旺季、替代品价格等则加剧了价格波动。未来，随着规模化占比提升，周期振幅可能收窄，但滞后性传导 机制仍将长期存在。 当前市场主要矛盾在于，能繁母猪存栏偏高与2025年猪价下行压力并存，在产能并未出现明显去化的格局下，进一步的驱动依赖产业博弈 的结果。 02 理论滞后性与实际验证 根据养殖理论传导周期测算，从能繁母猪补栏到商品猪出栏，需经历完整的生产链条：后备母猪培育（7-8个月）→ 配种妊娠（4个月）→ 仔猪育肥（6-7个月）。因此，理论上能繁母猪存栏量的变化会在10-13个月后反映到生猪供给和价格上。 通过历史数据测算，能繁母猪存栏量与13个月后的生猪价格呈现显著负相 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a buy rating for Hai Da Group (002311.SZ) with an "A" rating, and a buy rating for Sheng Nong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) with a "B" rating. Other companies like Guai Bao Pet (301498.SZ) and Zhong Chong Shares (002891.SZ) are rated as "A" for increase, while Tang Ren Shen (002567.SZ), Shen Nong Group (605296.SH), Ju Xing Nong Mu (603477.SH), and New Hope (000876.SZ) are rated as "B" for increase [1]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in pig prices, yet they remain within a profitable range. The report indicates that the pig price in the off-season is still maintaining profitability [2][4]. - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is entering a profitability cycle starting from Q2 2024, despite the average debt ratio still needing to decrease significantly. The market's expectations regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability may be overly pessimistic [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in the feed industry due to lower raw material prices and improving breeding conditions, particularly for Hai Da Group, which is expected to see an upward trend in its operational fundamentals [5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of March 7, 2025, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan are 14.85, 15.32, and 14.39 yuan per kilogram, reflecting increases of 0.07%, 0.99%, and 0.35% respectively. The average pork price is 20.81 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.24% [3][23]. - The average wholesale price for piglets is 28.00 yuan per kilogram, up by 2.75%, while the average price for two-yuan sows remains stable at 32.47 yuan per kilogram [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broiler chickens is 6.59 yuan per kilogram, up by 8.03%, and the price for broiler chicks is 2.54 yuan per chick, up by 10.92%. However, the breeding profit is negative at -1.90 yuan per chick [31]. Feed Processing - The total industrial feed production in 2024 is reported at 31,503.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous year. The production of pig feed is 14,391.3 million tons, down by 3.9% [34]. Market Performance - For the week of March 3 to March 9, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.39%, while the agricultural sector rose by 1.04%, ranking 20th among sectors. The top-performing sub-industries include food and feed additives, animal health, fruit and vegetable processing, pig farming, and chicken farming [2][17].

Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for several stocks in the agriculture sector, with "Buy-A" ratings for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" ratings for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [1]. Core Insights - The livestock farming sector is expected to see improved performance in 2024, with a focus on the profitability of pig farming as the industry enters a recovery phase [4]. - The report highlights that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability, overlooking potential positive influences from declining raw material costs and macroeconomic demand recovery in 2025 [4]. - The poultry industry is also showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for broiler chickens and eggs, indicating potential profitability improvements [26]. Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - As of February 28, 2025, average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 14.84, 15.17, and 14.34 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.98%, 3.80%, and 2.05% respectively [3]. - The average pork price was 20.86 yuan/kg, down 2.75% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price for piglets increased by 0.44% to 27.25 yuan/kg [3][18]. - The self-breeding profit was 43.08 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was 9.39 yuan/head [3][18]. Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broiler chickens was 6.10 yuan/kg, up 3.92% week-on-week, and the price for broiler chicks rose by 9.05% to 2.29 yuan/chick [26]. - Egg prices increased by 5.41% to 7.80 yuan/kg [26]. Feed Processing - In 2024, the total industrial feed production in China decreased by 2.1% to 31,503.1 million tons, with pig feed production down 3.9% to 14,391.3 million tons [30]. - The production of pet feed, however, saw a growth of 9.3%, indicating a potential area of opportunity within the feed sector [30]. Aquaculture - As of February 28, 2025, prices for sea cucumbers, shrimp, and bass remained stable at 180.00 yuan/kg, 300.00 yuan/kg, and 50.00 yuan/kg respectively [34]. - Freshwater fish prices showed mixed results, with grass carp at 15.02 yuan/kg (down 0.66%) and crucian carp at 20.55 yuan/kg (up 0.05%) [34]. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 28, 2025, soybean prices were 3,878.89 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, while corn and wheat prices were 2,218.14 yuan/ton and 2,434.28 yuan/ton, respectively, showing slight increases [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the proposals and insights shared by Liu Yonghao, Chairman of New Hope Group, during a media communication meeting, focusing on agricultural development, support for the private economy, and rural entrepreneurship. Group 1: Proposals and Themes - Liu Yonghao plans to submit five proposals at the upcoming National People's Congress, focusing on "three rural issues," the private economy, poverty alleviation, and rural construction [1] - The call for subsidies for durable consumer goods and the issuance of consumption vouchers to stimulate consumption [2][9] - Suggestions to support young entrepreneurs moving to rural areas with subsidies, such as providing 10,000 yuan for university graduates starting businesses in rural areas [2][10] Group 2: Industry Insights - Traditional industries like meat, eggs, and dairy will not disappear; efforts should focus on expanding scale, introducing technology, optimizing varieties, and improving efficiency [2] - New Hope is exploring "AI + modern agriculture," aiming to enhance feed formulation, genetic testing in breeding, cold chain logistics efficiency, and disease prevention through AI [2][6] - The company is working to reduce reliance on imported breeding stock for pigs, developing high-quality local breeds like Sichuan fragrant pigs [6] Group 3: Financial Support and Performance - Financial institutions have continued to support New Hope during challenging times, with banks actively proposing to strengthen cooperation [2][7] - New Hope's revenue for 2024 is expected to be roughly flat compared to 2023, with a significant increase in profitability; projected net profit is between 450 million and 550 million yuan, representing an increase of 80.58% to 120.71% year-on-year [2][7] - The use of futures products, particularly in pig trading, is seen as a way to stabilize price fluctuations in the pig cycle, with New Hope participating cautiously [2][8]