Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance, highlighting its importance in stabilizing growth, boosting momentum, and mitigating risks[9] - The plan explicitly states the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to address short-term risks and maintain economic stability, contrasting with previous plans that focused more on long-term reforms[10] - There is a stronger focus on social welfare and public spending, with an emphasis on increasing government investment in basic livelihoods and enhancing consumer capacity[11] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Transformations - The plan calls for a shift from focusing on deficit rates to increasing expenditure growth, breaking the 3% deficit rate constraint to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policy[17] - It advocates for expanding spending rather than merely reducing taxes, aiming to directly stimulate total demand and increase household and enterprise income[17] - The policy structure should balance supply and demand, with a focus on both investment and consumption, particularly in social welfare and public services[18] Group 3: Tax System and Sustainability - The plan emphasizes the need to stabilize the macro tax burden and enhance fiscal sustainability, avoiding a decline in the ratio of fiscal revenue to GDP[20] - It suggests structural adjustments to existing tax policies to improve efficiency and precision, particularly in key sectors like technology and small enterprises[20] - The plan aims to increase local fiscal autonomy by adjusting revenue-sharing mechanisms and enhancing local tax sources[22] Group 4: Debt Management - The plan highlights the necessity of establishing a long-term mechanism for government debt management to mitigate local government debt risks[25] - It proposes the creation of a comprehensive monitoring system for local government debt and a dynamic early warning system for debt risks[26] - The plan encourages a shift from debt-driven growth to a model focused on technology and consumption, promoting sustainable economic development[27]

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program starting November 10, 2025, represents a significant step in public health policy, aiming to enhance preventive healthcare for young girls and reduce the burden of cervical cancer in China [2][3]. Summary by Sections National Immunization Program - The HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program for the first time since 2007, expanding the target demographic from children under 6 to adolescents [2]. - This decision aligns with the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the integration of investments in both material and human resources [2]. Cervical Cancer Burden - Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer among women in China, with increasing incidence rates and a trend towards younger patients [2]. - Vaccination against HPV is identified as the most effective and economical method for preventing cervical cancer [2]. Vaccine Coverage and Accessibility - Current HPV vaccination coverage in China is low due to factors such as lack of awareness, high vaccine prices, and limited availability [3]. - Pilot programs for free HPV vaccination have shown high acceptance rates, indicating that low coverage is more related to investment and promotion rather than public awareness [3]. Government Procurement and Cost - The government plans to procure 15.4465 million doses of the bivalent HPV vaccine at a budget of approximately 424.78 million yuan, resulting in an estimated procurement price of 27.5 yuan per dose [3]. - This reflects the government's strong bargaining power in vaccine procurement [3]. Economic and Social Impact - The HPV vaccination initiative is seen as a proactive fiscal policy that invests in public health, which can lead to significant long-term benefits for society [3][4]. - By reducing healthcare costs associated with cervical cancer, the program aims to improve the financial stability of families and the overall economic structure of society [4]. Addressing Demand Issues - The vaccination program is expected to enhance effective demand in the economy, addressing the current issue of insufficient domestic demand [4][5]. - The lack of effective demand is attributed to residents' low sense of security regarding social welfare systems, leading to higher savings rates [4]. Future Directions - To effectively alleviate domestic demand issues, there is a need for substantial investment in public welfare systems, including social security and healthcare [5][6]. - The HPV vaccination program is viewed as a practical step towards filling gaps in social welfare and enhancing public health, ultimately contributing to a more robust domestic economy [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent proposal by the Central Committee emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy in enhancing fiscal sustainability, indicating that fiscal measures will continue to support economic growth, employment, structural optimization, and improving people's livelihoods over the next five years [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Direction - China will maintain a proactive fiscal policy approach, which has been effective since the 2008 financial crisis, while also addressing the need for enhanced fiscal sustainability [2][3]. - The fiscal deficit rate has increased from 2.7% to 3.8% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with expectations to rise to 4% by 2025 [2]. Revenue and Expenditure Challenges - The growth of fiscal revenue faces constraints, with traditional key tax sectors slowing down, while emerging industries and the digital economy grow rapidly but contribute less to tax revenue [2]. - There is a persistent demand for fiscal expenditure in key areas such as consumption promotion, investment expansion, and employment stabilization, leading to increased pressure on fiscal balance [2]. Tax Policy Optimization - The proposal calls for the optimization of tax incentives and maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden, with tax revenue as a primary source of fiscal income [4][5]. - The tax revenue as a percentage of GDP is projected to be below 13% in 2024, a decrease of about 2 percentage points from 2021, indicating a need to reverse the low tax revenue situation [4]. Central and Local Fiscal Responsibilities - The proposal suggests enhancing central fiscal responsibilities while increasing local fiscal capabilities, addressing the imbalance in fiscal responsibilities between central and local governments [5][6]. - There is a need to optimize the sharing of tax revenues, particularly in shared taxes like corporate and personal income taxes, to alleviate local fiscal pressures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in fiscal policy focus for the next five years towards actively utilizing fiscal policies to support economic stability and growth, in light of changing domestic and international conditions [4][5]. Fiscal Policy Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of active fiscal policies, contrasting with the previous "14th Five-Year Plan" which focused on establishing a modern fiscal and tax system [3][4]. - The new fiscal strategy aims to enhance fiscal sustainability while addressing risks and uncertainties in the economic environment [4][5]. Key Measures - The Ministry of Finance outlines six key areas for implementing active fiscal policies: expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, improving living standards, promoting urban-rural integration, deepening fiscal and tax reforms, and mitigating local debt risks [5][6]. - Specific actions include increasing tax and social security adjustments to boost household income and consumption, and enhancing investment in key technological areas [5][6]. Economic Context - The article notes that the changing focus of fiscal policy is a response to complex domestic and international challenges, including geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [4][5]. - The Ministry of Finance stresses the need for a balanced approach to fiscal governance, ensuring effective market functioning while minimizing direct government intervention in microeconomic activities [5][6].

Core Insights - The focus of fiscal policy in the next five years will shift towards effectively leveraging proactive fiscal policies to support China's modernization and national rejuvenation efforts [1][2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies in response to complex domestic and international challenges, highlighting the need to mitigate risks and ensure stable economic performance [2] Fiscal Policy Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a shift from establishing a modern fiscal and tax system to enhancing the role of proactive fiscal policies and ensuring fiscal sustainability [1][3] - The fiscal work will prioritize six key areas: expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, improving livelihoods, promoting urban-rural integration, deepening fiscal and tax reforms, and addressing local debt risks [3] Economic Environment - The changing focus of fiscal policy is directly related to evolving domestic and international conditions, with increased emphasis on risk and uncertainty compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The external environment is characterized by instability, intensified great power competition, and rising protectionism, while the domestic economy remains resilient with significant potential for growth [2] Implementation Strategies - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness by increasing tax, social security, and transfer payments to boost household income and consumption [3] - There will be a focus on scientific management of fiscal policies, balancing market efficiency with government intervention, and ensuring that fiscal resources are allocated to areas with high social benefits [3][4] Debt Management - The fiscal strategy will include careful management of deficits, debts, and expenditures to ensure fiscal sustainability and address local debt risks effectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes achieving significant results in "high-quality development" as a primary goal, which is crucial for ensuring stable and sustainable economic growth in China [3][4]. Economic Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is suggested that China's average annual economic growth should be around 5% [1]. - The relationship between investment, human capital, and technological progress is highlighted as essential for maintaining this growth rate [1][6]. Fiscal Policy - The plan stresses the importance of sustainable fiscal policy, with a focus on enhancing fiscal sustainability rather than merely achieving fiscal balance [4][6]. - By the end of 2024, the total government debt is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan, which is 68.7% of GDP, indicating a manageable debt level compared to other countries [5]. Investment and Consumption - The "14th Five-Year Plan" advocates for expanding effective investment, particularly in major strategic projects, to support economic growth [7][8]. - The argument against transitioning from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven growth model is presented, asserting that investment remains crucial for economic expansion [7][8]. Infrastructure Investment - Significant emphasis is placed on infrastructure investment as a means to stimulate consumption and achieve the targeted economic growth rate [10][11]. - The plan suggests that increasing infrastructure investment can create a positive cycle of income and consumption growth, essential for meeting the 5% growth target [11][12]. Income Distribution - The plan includes measures to improve income distribution, aiming to increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution [12]. - Addressing income disparity is identified as a key issue for enhancing consumption in the economy [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a reasonable macro tax burden level, emphasizing that it should be assessed in conjunction with fiscal revenue, tax revenue, and fiscal expenditure, rather than merely comparing macro tax burden levels in isolation [1][5][7]. Summary by Sections Macro Tax Burden Definition - A reasonable macro tax burden is defined by the ratio of fiscal revenue (tax revenue) to GDP, indicating that a low macro tax burden does not necessarily equate to a light tax burden if it corresponds to insufficient fiscal expenditure [1][5]. Fiscal Balance and Revenue Generation - The article highlights that a tight fiscal balance indicates a need for adjustment in the macro tax burden, suggesting that increasing revenue and controlling expenditure are crucial paths to address this issue [2]. Historical Context of Tax Burden - Since the 1994 fiscal reform, the ratio of fiscal revenue to GDP has increased from 10.68% to 20.97% by 2016, providing substantial financial support for national development [5]. However, from 2017 to 2024, this ratio has been on a downward trend due to large-scale tax cuts, dropping to 16.29% by 2024 [6][7]. Micro and Macro Tax Burden Relationship - The article stresses the importance of considering both macro and micro tax burdens together, as increasing taxes on struggling micro entities could lead to their disappearance, ultimately harming long-term revenue generation [9]. Quality of Fiscal Revenue - The decline in tax revenue as a proportion of total fiscal revenue raises concerns about the quality of fiscal income, as reliance on non-tax revenue can lead to instability [10]. Tax Policy and Economic Growth - The article notes that since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," over 10 trillion yuan has been allocated for tax reductions and refunds, which is essential for implementing active fiscal policies [11]. Comparison of Micro Tax Burdens - It is essential to compare the tax burdens of different micro entities, ensuring that those with greater capacity contribute more, while those with less capacity contribute less or not at all [13]. New Economy and Tax Revenue - The emergence of new economic sectors necessitates a tax system that can effectively convert new tax sources into revenue, as traditional tax sources are declining [16]. Real vs. Nominal Tax Burden - The article warns that nominally low macro tax burdens may mask a reality where significant portions of tax revenue are returned to businesses through incentives, indicating that the actual tax burden may be lower than reported [17].

Group 1: Economic and Social Development Planning - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan, outlining systematic planning and strategic deployment for China's economic and social development [1] - Emphasis on promoting the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, and expanding high-level opening-up [1][2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The Ministry of Science and Technology aims to achieve decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies through a full-chain approach, integrating innovation and industrial chains [2][3] - Focus on original innovation and tackling key technologies in areas such as integrated circuits, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing [2][3] Group 3: Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to boost domestic consumption and optimize the environment for consumer spending [6][7] - Measures include removing unreasonable restrictions in consumption and enhancing residents' income to increase consumption rates [6][7] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The government aims to optimize investment structures and enhance the effectiveness of investments, particularly in infrastructure and consumer-related sectors [8][9] - Plans to implement significant landmark projects that align with national strategic needs and promote a unified national market [9][11] Group 5: Market Regulation and Competition - The State Administration for Market Regulation is focused on establishing a unified market system, eliminating barriers to competition, and addressing "involution" in market practices [10][11] - Emphasis on strengthening anti-monopoly and fair competition regulations to ensure a healthy market environment [12][13] Group 6: State-Owned Enterprises and Private Sector - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission aims to optimize the layout of state-owned enterprises and enhance their roles in key industries [14][15] - Support for private enterprises through legal protections and policies to stimulate their growth and participation in national projects [16][17] Group 7: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The Ministry of Finance outlines a proactive fiscal policy to support high-quality development and manage government debt sustainably [17][19] - Focus on increasing public investment in technology and social welfare while ensuring fiscal discipline and preventing local government debt risks [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.48%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Supported by a positive macro - atmosphere and cost, the rebar price rebounded from recent lows. However, with both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weak. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, steel prices will face pressure again. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.72%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The high - supply and high - inventory situation of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, but demand is performing well. The industrial contradictions have not continued to accumulate, and the price has rebounded recently supported by positive market sentiment. However, demand concerns remain, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Be cautious of the market logic switching to the industrial side [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily decline of 0.56%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. With improved market sentiment and a switch in the arbitrage logic, the iron ore price has returned to a high level. However, ore supply is high while demand continues to weaken, the fundamentals are poor, the upward driving force is weak, and the high valuation will continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, Lan Fo'an pointed out that a package of debt resolution plans will be further implemented, and the replacement of local government's existing implicit debts will be carried out. A unified long - term supervision system for local government debts will be established, and strict accountability will be imposed on illegal debt - raising and false debt resolution. The reform and transformation of local financing platforms will be accelerated, and the establishment or alienation of various financing platforms will be prohibited. The debt structure will be optimized, and a long - term government debt management mechanism suitable for high - quality development will be built. Support will be provided for high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength to promote the rapid development of new productive forces [6]. - Pan Gongsheng stated that globally, macro - prudential policy tools are already rich and still developing rapidly. Based on the assessment results of the macro - prudential monitoring and analysis framework, the policy toolkits in areas such as systemically important financial institutions, broad credit, real - estate finance, and cross - border capital flows should be continuously enriched and improved. Policy tools to deal with macro - economic and financial market fluctuations should be studied and reserved, and a management mechanism for creation, implementation, evaluation, feedback, and optimization should be established to make them more standardized [7]. - At the third - quarter information conference of the China Iron and Steel Association on October 31st, Vice - President and Secretary - General Jiang Wei said that in the first three quarters, China's steel exports increased year - on - year and imports decreased year - on - year. However, as the global trade environment tightens, the pressure and risks of steel exports are increasing [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,200, 3,190, and 3,261 respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and - 4. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,330, 3,250, and 3,365 respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and - 8. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,980 with a change of - 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,170 with a change of 10. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is 130 with no change, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,030 with a change of - 10 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 803 with a change of - 2, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 827 with no change, the sea freight from Australia is 9.48 with a change of 0.13, the sea freight from Brazil is 23.11 with a change of 0.64, the SGX swap (current month) is 105.84 with a change of - 0.11, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 107.70 with a change of - 0.70 [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,106 with a decline of 0.48%, the highest price is 3,126, the lowest price is 3,097, the trading volume is 985,855 with a decrease of 455,123, and the open interest is 1,879,450 with a decrease of 15,466 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,308 with a decline of 0.72%, the highest price is 3,330, the lowest price is 3,302, the trading volume is 431,109 with a decrease of 183,385, and the open interest is 1,470,219 with a decrease of 3,067 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 800.0 with a decline of 0.56%, the highest price is 802.0, the lowest price is 792.0, the trading volume is 305,778 with a decrease of 20,095, and the open interest is 540,280 with a decrease of 11,268 [11]. 4. Related Charts - There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore (including inventory changes, seasonal inventory), the inventory of 247 steel mills' iron ore, the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills) [13][18][27] 5. Future Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand are rising. The weekly output of rebar increased by 5.52 tons week - on - week, and the supply has reached a relatively high level this year with increasing inventory pressure. The demand has improved seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 6.17 tons week - on - week and the daily high - frequency trading volume increasing. However, both supply and demand are still at low levels in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the improvement space is limited. Supported by a positive macro - atmosphere and cost, the rebar price has rebounded from recent lows, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, steel prices will face pressure again. Attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For hot - rolled coils, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.10 tons week - on - week and remains at a high level this year. The high - inventory situation has limited reduction, and supply pressure is still high, which continues to put pressure on prices. The demand is performing well, with the weekly apparent demand increasing week - on - week and remaining at a high level in the same period. However, the high - frequency trading volume is relatively weak, and the fundamentals of the main downstream cold - rolled products have not improved, so demand concerns remain. The positive factor is the marginal improvement of external demand, but it needs to be tracked after the price rebound. The high - supply and high - inventory situation remains unchanged, but the demand is good, and industrial contradictions have not continued to accumulate. The price has rebounded recently supported by positive market sentiment, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Be cautious of the market logic switching to the industrial side [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Affected by production restrictions, the terminal demand for iron ore has been declining. This week, the average daily hot - metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, and the decline is expanding. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated and seasonal production - restriction disturbances occur frequently, the demand for iron ore is expected to continue to decline, which may drag down the ore price. Although the arrival of goods at domestic ports has dropped significantly, it is mainly due to short - term weather disturbances. Overseas miners' shipments remain at a high level, and according to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will bottom out and rebound. The domestic iron ore production is stable, and the ore supply remains high. With improved market sentiment and a switch in the arbitrage logic, the iron ore price has returned to a high level, but the supply is high while demand continues to weaken, the fundamentals are poor, the upward driving force is weak, and the high valuation will continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing proactive fiscal policies to support China's economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, as outlined by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1][5]. Summary by Sections Implementation of Proactive Fiscal Policies - The article discusses the necessity of adapting fiscal policies to current economic conditions, focusing on targeted support for key areas and weak links to ensure stable economic growth and structural optimization [2][3]. Achievements of Proactive Fiscal Policies - Significant outcomes from proactive fiscal policies include an average economic growth rate of 5.5% from 2021 to 2024 and the creation of over 12 million urban jobs annually. Public budget expenditures are projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with over 70% allocated to social welfare [3][4]. Key Tasks for the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period - The article outlines several key tasks for the upcoming period, including enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal policies, focusing on people's livelihoods, and ensuring that fiscal management aligns with the overall national strategy [5][6]. Coordination of Fiscal Policies - Emphasis is placed on the need for coordination between supply-side and demand-side management, as well as the importance of reforming fiscal tools to improve policy effectiveness [4][7]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The article highlights the strategy of expanding domestic demand as a fundamental approach to economic stability, advocating for increased investment in public services and infrastructure [9][10]. Support for Technological Advancement - There is a strong focus on supporting technological self-reliance and innovation, with an emphasis on increasing investment in key technological areas and fostering the integration of technology and industry [10][11]. Social Welfare and Employment - The article stresses the importance of prioritizing employment and social welfare, aiming to enhance the quality of education, healthcare, and social security systems to improve overall living standards [10][11]. Regional Development and Integration - The need for promoting urban-rural integration and regional development is discussed, with strategies to enhance agricultural productivity and improve public services in rural areas [10][11]. Fiscal Management and Debt Risk - The article calls for improved fiscal management practices to mitigate local government debt risks, emphasizing the importance of sustainable fiscal policies and effective debt management [11][12].