1月19日-20日，全球债券市场风云突变。本来只是受美国国债下跌影响而跟着下跌的日本国债突然暴 跌，短时间内迅速成为各国国债市场动荡的原因。 就在这两天里，日本10年期国债的回报率上升了19个基点（1个基点＝0.01%），是2022年以来上升幅 度最大的记录。而日本30年期的国债回报率在1月20日一天之内就上升了26.5个基点，达到3.875%，40 年期国债的回报率更是上升了27个基点，达到了4.215%。上一次日本国债回报率超过4%还是1995年的 事。而在1月20日举办的20年期日本国债拍卖也遭遇冷场。 同时，日本股市保持了不断上涨的势头。实际上，这也是日本通过赤字国债的发行向市场提供资金的结 果。但是，如果货币供给没有带来日本企业生产率提升，反而会造成货币价值的低落，加剧通胀的压 力。如此，日元就会进一步贬值，而高物价问题则远远得不到解决。从目前的状况来看，日本经济很难 摆脱这样的处境。 国债市场这样的反应，实际上是明确地对日本政府当前的财政政策说"不"。接下来日本国债是跌是涨， 还要看今年2月的日本国会选举。 虽然日本国债的暴跌给全球市场带来了冲击，但美国国债下跌的主要原因还在于美国自身。根据新华社 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively working to optimize the government procurement system through legislative reforms, the implementation of domestic product policies, and ongoing market order rectification efforts [1][2][4]. Group 1: Legislative Reforms - The government is collaborating with the National People's Congress Financial Committee to amend the Government Procurement Law and unify it with the Bidding Law, aiming to align with international trade standards and reduce transaction costs [2]. Group 2: Domestic Product Policy - A domestic product policy was introduced in September 2025 and took effect on January 1, 2026, which aims to ensure equal treatment of all suppliers and prohibits discrimination based on ownership, organization, or country of investment [3]. Group 3: Market Order Rectification - Since 2024, the Ministry of Finance, in conjunction with other departments, has been conducting special rectification efforts in the government procurement sector, focusing on over 19,000 agencies and 80,000 procurement projects to maintain fair competition and market order [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of fiscal and financial policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, with a focus on increasing private investment and consumer spending [1][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance plans to maintain a proactive fiscal policy in 2026, ensuring that total expenditure and fiscal deficit remain at necessary levels, with a commitment to increasing overall spending and strengthening support in key areas [1]. - The fiscal measures include a comprehensive package of policies designed to lower financing costs and thresholds for enterprises, thereby enhancing economic activity [2][3]. Group 2: Key Policy Components - The policy framework consists of "one goal" (expanding domestic demand), "two focuses" (stimulating private investment and promoting consumer spending), "three principles" (convenience and efficiency, precision and effectiveness, and regulation and efficiency), and "six policies" [3]. - Four of the six policies are aimed at supporting private investment, while the remaining two focus on promoting consumer spending [3]. Group 3: Consumer Financing Support - A new personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been introduced, allowing residents to receive a 1% interest subsidy on loans used for consumption, including credit card installment payments [3][4]. - The policy has been optimized to include over 500 financial institutions, enhancing accessibility for various consumer groups [4]. Group 4: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The introduction of a small and micro enterprise loan interest subsidy aims to reduce financing costs by providing a 1.5% interest subsidy on loans, thereby expanding the range of supported sectors and loan purposes [5][6]. - A new special guarantee plan for private investment has been established to help enterprises secure funding, increasing credit guarantee limits and risk-sharing ratios to encourage banks to lend more [6].

Group 1: Fiscal Overview - The general public budget revenue for Henan Province is projected to be 450.17 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 2.5% [1] - The general public budget expenditure is expected to reach 1,151.61 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.5% [1] - The fiscal spending on people's livelihood is set at 849.94 billion yuan, accounting for 73.8% of the total public budget expenditure [1] Group 2: Employment and Social Support - A total of 4.01 billion yuan will be allocated for employment support, with various policies in place to stabilize employment [1] - The province will implement a special plan for rural revitalization and support vocational skills training, aiming to maintain overall employment stability [1] - The government will provide 5.1 billion yuan in interest subsidies and support the issuance of 7.27 billion yuan in entrepreneurial guarantee loans, creating over 100,000 jobs [1] Group 3: Education and Healthcare - The education expenditure from the general public budget is projected at 207.99 billion yuan, with a growth of 1% [2] - Special funds of 9.16 billion yuan will be allocated to ensure no student drops out due to poverty [2] - Healthcare funding includes 45.83 billion yuan for resident medical insurance and 9.17 billion yuan for enhancing public health services [2] Group 4: Social Welfare and Housing - A total of 23.63 billion yuan will be allocated for the protection of vulnerable groups, including urban and rural subsistence allowances [3] - The monthly subsistence allowance will increase by 52 yuan for urban residents and 56 yuan for rural residents starting in 2025 [3] - Funding of 4.39 billion yuan will support housing security and urban renovation projects [3] Group 5: Environmental Protection - An allocation of 5.3 billion yuan will be directed towards ecological environment special funds to combat pollution and improve rural living conditions [3] - The government aims to enhance the standards for air, water, and soil protection through these initiatives [3] Group 6: Future Fiscal Policy - The fiscal system will continue to implement more proactive fiscal policies with increased precision and effectiveness [3] - The focus will remain on enhancing fiscal strength while ensuring that investments in people's livelihoods continue to grow [3]

Report Title - "Issuance Scale Hits a New High, Debt Resolution Enters a New Stage — A Review and Outlook of the Local Government Bond Market in 2025" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the issuance scale of local government bonds reached a new high, and debt resolution advanced steadily. In 2026, local bonds are expected to be issued earlier and at a faster pace, with bond market interest rates fluctuating at a low level. The focus of debt resolution may shift to the resolution of the operating debt risks of financing platforms, and a unified long - term regulatory mechanism for government debt management is expected to be accelerated [3][43][46] Summary by Directory 1. Policy Review of Local Government Bonds - **Active Fiscal Policy**: In 2025, a more active fiscal policy was implemented, with a larger - scale government bond issuance plan. The deficit rate was raised to about 4%, and the deficit scale increased by 1.6 trillion yuan. The total new government debt scale reached 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. Policies also continued to standardize and promote land reserve special bonds and optimize the investment direction of special bonds [4][5][6] - **Debt Resolution**: The implicit debt replacement policy accelerated, and the list of high - risk debt areas was dynamically adjusted. Since the implementation of the "package debt resolution" policy, the implicit debt scale of local governments has decreased from 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to 10.5 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, and the average interest cost has been reduced by more than 2.5 percentage points, saving over 4500 billion yuan in interest expenses [10] - **Monitoring and Management Mechanism**: The local debt monitoring system and government debt risk indicator system were improved, and the special bond management mechanism was optimized. Penalties for illegal debt - raising and false debt resolution were strengthened, and the reform and transformation of local government financing platforms were accelerated [11][12] 2. Review of the Local Government Bond Market from January to November 2025 - **Issuance Overview**: From January to November 2025, local government bonds were issued 2280 times, with a total amount of 10.01 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.22%. Special bonds accounted for 75.00%. New special bonds reached 4.46 trillion yuan, a five - year high. Refinancing bonds were issued at 4.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.60%, and special refinancing special bonds for implicit debt replacement reached 2.23 trillion yuan [15][16] - **Interest Rate and Spread Analysis**: The average issuance interest rate of local bonds fluctuated upward from January to November 2025, and the average spread continued to widen. The average spreads in the first three quarters were 11.28bp, 12.01bp, and 17.75bp respectively, and 18.81bp in October and November. Provincial spreads continued to show a differentiated trend [30][31][33] - **Investment Areas of Special Bonds**: Infrastructure was the main focus of special bond funds. The top five investment areas were urban infrastructure, transportation infrastructure construction, and industrial parks, accounting for 46.02% in total. Land reserve special bonds were restarted, with a total issuance of 3905.41 billion yuan from January to November 2025, showing an accelerating trend [40] 3. Future Outlook of Local Government Bonds - **Issuance Forecast**: In 2026, the advance - approval new debt quota is expected to be issued faster and in larger amounts. Local bonds will be issued earlier and at a faster pace, and the investment direction of special bond funds will be further optimized. The 2 - trillion - yuan debt resolution quota is expected to follow the 2025 issuance rhythm [42][43] - **Interest Rate Trend**: Bond market interest rates will fluctuate at a low level, with limited upward pressure and narrowed downward space. The market may face short - term liquidity tightening [44][45] - **Debt Resolution Focus**: The long - term regulatory mechanism for government debt management is expected to be accelerated. The focus of debt risk resolution may shift to the operating debt of financing platforms, and relevant supporting policies are expected to be introduced [46]

Group 1 - The report predicts that developed economies may face stagflation risks in 2026, leading to uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may exceed market expectations and follow a non-linear path of "cut first, then raise" [1] - Global stock markets are expected to experience volatile upward trends in 2026, with structural differentiation driven by capital flows, valuation differences, and policy uncertainties [1] - The dollar is likely to remain relatively weak, fluctuating within the 95-100 range, while gold prices may trend upwards in the medium to long term, showing "high-level fluctuations, overall strength, and narrowing gains" [1] Group 2 - In China, a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in macroeconomic regulation, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures [2] - The consumption landscape is anticipated to improve significantly in 2026, driven by clear policy direction, steady income growth, and enhanced consumption infrastructure [2] - China's exports are projected to maintain stable growth due to the country's competitive advantages and increasing diversification of export markets [2] Group 3 - To further stimulate economic growth, targeted policy measures are recommended, including increased fiscal and credit support for service consumption and the implementation of an "external capital industry chain empowerment plan" [3] - Emphasis is placed on the role of major economic provinces in driving growth and incentivizing private enterprises to engage in technological innovation [3] - Attention is also needed to address local fiscal challenges and to implement risk warning and prevention measures in the stock market [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For manganese - silicon, supply - side开工率and production decline, manganese ore port inventory slightly accumulates, silicon - manganese inventory decreases but remains high; demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types drops, and steel mill hot metal production declines. Cost support weakens, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. [2] - For silicon - iron, the fundamentals show a double - reduction in supply and demand, both at low levels in the same period, and the inventory is neutral. With the support of semi - coke, it is relatively resistant to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价is 5,786.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价is 5,556.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量is 613,881.00 hands, up 15,542.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量is 410,165.00 hands, up 1,189.00 hands. [2] - Manganese - silicon's top 20 net positions are - 12,303.00 hands, down 1,024.00 hands; Silicon - iron's top 20 net positions are - 27,919.00 hands, up 697.00 hands. [2] - SM5 - 3月合约价差is 38.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF4 - 3月合约价差is - 12.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan. [2] - SM仓单is 35,895.00 sheets, down 248.00 sheets; SF仓单is 0.00 sheets, down 10,007.00 sheets. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,370.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan. [2] - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,680.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,300.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. [2] - Manganese - silicon index average (weekly) is 5,735.00 yuan/ton, up 9.17 yuan; SF主力合约基差 (daily) is - 256.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan. [2] - SM主力合约基差 (daily) is - 116.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of South African high - iron manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 31.55 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%, Northwest) is 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The average price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 36.45 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.30 yuan; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) is 820.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke is 1,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Manganese ore port inventory (weekly) is 421.80 million tons, up 4.30 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise开工率 (weekly) is 36.06%, down 0.75%; silicon - iron enterprise开工率 (weekly) is 29.21%, down 0.42%. [2] - Manganese - silicon supply (weekly) is 190,575.00 tons, down 455.00 tons; silicon - iron supply (weekly) is 98,700.00 tons, down 400.00 tons. [2] - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly) is 372,800.00 tons, down 9,700.00 tons; silicon - iron manufacturer inventory (half - monthly) is 63,750.00 tons, down 5,160.00 tons. [2] - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (monthly, days) is 15.52 days, down 0.32 days; silicon - iron national steel mill inventory (monthly, days) is 15.41 days, down 0.39 days. [2] - The demand for manganese - silicon in five major steel types (weekly) is 115,815.00 tons, down 84.00 tons; the demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (weekly) is 18,481.70 tons, down 27.10 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率of 247 steel mill blast furnaces (weekly) is 78.84%, down 0.47%; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill blast furnaces (weekly) is 85.48%, down 0.56%. [2] - Crude steel production (monthly) is 6,818.00 million tons, down 169.10 million tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and crack down on low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. [2] - Mysteel: A steel mill in East China has tendered for silicon - manganese at a price of 5,830 yuan/ton, with a cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 5,720 yuan in Jiangsu and 5,650 yuan in Tianjin. [2]

：sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn 研究所 基本面分析报告 金融衍生品日报 2025 年 01 月 21 日 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 ：021-65789277 研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号： F3053225 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015885 ：shenchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn 金融衍生品日报 一、财经要闻 1. 1 月 20 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍发挥积极财政政策作用，推动经济社会 高质量发展有关情况。财政部副部长廖岷在会上表示，2025 年，更加积极的财政政策兼顾当 前与长远，既有力支持经济增长、办好民生实事，又有效推动中国经济结构转型，为经济社 会中长期可持续发展打下坚实基础。 2. 国新办 1 月 20 日举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五" 实现良好开局有关情况。国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在会上表示，坚持把发展经济的着力 点放在实体经济上，加快构建现代化产业体系。要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用， 研究设立国家级并购基金，加强政府投资基金布局规划和投 ...

根据国家统计局近日发布的数据，2025年中国经济顶住外部冲击，全年经济增长目标顺利实现。2026年 一季度项目储备和政策储备充足，需要提早发力，形成实物工作量，尽快实现稳投资，并借助春节假期 临近，大力提振消费。随着部分领域出口退税的下调，更多资金将用于畅通国内大循环。 2025年社会融资规模稳中有升，政府债券成为主力支撑 2025年12月金融数据略好于市场预期。央行数据显示，12月社会融资规模增量为22080亿元，同比少增 6457亿元。2025年全年，社会融资规模增量累计35.6万亿元，较2024年32.3万亿元的水平多增3.34万亿 元，这与年初积极财政政策导向和广义财政赤字发力支撑社融走高有关。2025年广义财政赤字的扩张支 撑全年社融同比多增。 2025年12月M1同比增速为3.8%，较2024年12月的1.2%有所回升，2025年12月M2同比增速为8.5%，高 于2024年12月的7.3%。2025年居民部门新增存款仍处于较高水平，但同比增幅在存款利率持续下降和 股市指数上升的双重影响下受到影响。而与之相对应的是，在股票市场预期持续好转的情况下，2025年 全年非银存款较2024年实现了倍增。 ...

人民日报海外版记者 汪文正 1月20日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍发挥积极财政政策作用，推动经济社会高质量发展有关情 况。财政部副部长廖岷在会上表示，2025年，更加积极的财政政策兼顾当前与长远，既有力支持经济增 长、办好民生实事，又有效推动中国经济结构转型，为经济社会中长期可持续发展打下坚实基础。 体现更加积极的政策取向 廖岷介绍，2025年财政政策主要在4个方面发力，体现了更加积极的政策取向，为宏观经济稳中有 进提供了重要支撑： 加大逆周期调节力度。一是2025年赤字率按4%左右安排、比上年提高1个百分点；新增政府债务规 模11.86万亿元，比上年增加2.9万亿元，远超此前几年平均水平。二是发行特别国债5000亿元，用于补 充国有大型商业银行核心一级资本；三是安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于补充地方政府综合 财力和扩大有效投资。 着力提振消费。一是发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，持续支持"两重""两新"，其中安排消费品以 旧换新资金3000亿元，带动相关商品销售额超2.6万亿元。二是从供需两端激发消费潜力，出台实施个 人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，支持开展消费新业态、新模式和新场景试点 ...