油价下跌后，沙特公司缩减开支 金十数据5月5日讯，据英国金融时报报道，在地缘政治动荡引发油价大幅下跌后，沙特企业正寻求实现 业务多元化并保护自己的业务，为该国经济放缓做好准备。长期以来，沙特的经济一直依赖能源出口推 动的政府支出，这使其容易受到原油价格波动驱动的繁荣与萧条周期的影响。油价最近从1月份的每桶 80多美元跌至60美元左右——这是自2021年以来的最低水平，远低于沙特的盈亏平衡价格——迫使私营 企业再次为经济低迷做准备。一位沙特科技企业家表示，2016年油价暴跌后，政府削减了公共部门员工 的奖金和福利，他被迫关闭了自己的第一家企业，这给他上了沉重的一课。这一次，其一家公司试图减 少政府客户的数量，以避免受到影响，并向食品和饮料等新行业扩张。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. job market shows resilience with a non-farm payroll increase of 177,000 in April, surpassing the market expectation of 138,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, indicating no significant changes in the labor market [1] - The healthcare sector leads in job growth, while transportation and warehousing also see the largest increase since December of the previous year [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector experiences its most severe contraction since 2020, resulting in job losses and signaling signs of economic slowdown [3] - There is a rising trend in layoffs, with predictions of at least 500,000 jobs at risk due to the impact of tariff policies [3] - Job vacancies in March hit a nine-month low, reflecting a decrease in hiring intentions among businesses [3] Group 3 - Despite strong employment data, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions remain uncertain, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in the coming months [3] - Economic uncertainty is causing businesses to slow down expansion plans, particularly in export and import-dependent industries [3] - The overall employment situation is robust, but the ongoing impact of tariff policies may pose greater challenges in the coming months [4]

智通财经APP获悉，4月非农就业报告将于今晚发布，经济学家预计，4月美国就业报告将显示新增就业 岗位13.5万个，低于3月的22.8万个。报告披露前夕，货币市场预期2025年美联储将进行近四次25个基点 的降息操作，比特朗普上月宣布大规模关税政策前的预期多出一次。美国债券投资者纷纷押注，唐纳德 ·特朗普总统推行的关税政策将拖累全球最大经济体的发展步伐，进而迫使美联储下调利率。 与此同时，周三的持仓数据显示，美国短期国债的多头头寸不断增加。投资者押注特朗普的大规模关税 政策对经济增长的冲击，将超过其带来的通胀影响。 然而，经济数据也在不断检验着这种经济大幅放缓的预期：周四，一份制造业调查结果好于预期，交易 员纷纷回补部分降息押注。市场的紧张氛围使得4月非农就业报告备受关注，这份报告将为市场初步揭 示关税政策的不确定性对劳动力市场的影响。 贝莱德集团美洲区首席投资与投资组合策略师加吉·乔杜里指出："劳动力市场的降温是美联储继续实施 宽松政策的必要条件。" 她认为，尽管4月疲软的就业数据"朝着这一方向迈出了一步"，但美联储需要看到更多数据反映出经济 疲软的趋势。"他们必须综合考量所有数据，我认为单凭一份疲软的数据报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Sumitomo Corporation indicated that the impact of U.S. tariffs may include economic slowdown, weakened demand, and a decline in commodity prices, including nickel [1] Group 1 - The potential economic slowdown is a significant concern for the industry as it may affect overall market dynamics [1] - Weakened demand could lead to reduced sales and profitability for companies reliant on commodity markets [1] - The decline in commodity prices, particularly nickel, could impact the financial performance of companies involved in mining and resource extraction [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price opened under pressure from moving averages, showing a slight decline of 0.28% to $3307.89 per ounce, with a high of $3327.91 and a low of $3305.61 [1] - The gold market is expected to experience volatility, with resistance levels identified at $3340-42 and $3330-32, while support is noted at $3299 and $3305 [3] Group 2 - Melanie Baker from Royal Asset Management anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with signs of economic slowdown expected in the second half of the year [2] - Joerg Kraemer from Deutsche Bank emphasizes the need for the European Central Bank to act swiftly to address potential supply shocks and rising inflation, arguing against the reliance on mid-term forecasts [2]

金十数据4月29日讯，伦敦皇家资产管理高级经济学家Melanie Baker在报告中表示，仍预期美联储2025 年将进行两次降息，但时间不会早于下半年，届时经济预计会出现更明确的放缓迹象。她指出，衰退风 险已经上升，全球和美国的经济增长前景已经恶化。不过，目前她仍处于"经济放缓"阵营，而非"经济 衰退"阵营，因为对等关税暂停，而且有迹象表明特朗普正对市场压力作出回应。 经济学家：美联储今年将降息两次 时点将在下半年 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - LME three-month copper prices fell significantly in early April, dropping 11% in the first two weeks, erasing all gains for the year, with a low of $8,613 per ton on April 9 [2] - Copper prices rebounded in the following weeks due to U.S. tariff exemptions on certain electronic imports and a significant decline in the dollar [3] Group 2: Exports - Chile, the largest copper exporter, shipped 93,909 tons of copper to the U.S. in the first two months of 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, as traders aimed to avoid potential import tariffs [3] - China's refined copper exports surged 156% year-on-year in Q1, reaching 117,491 tons [4] Group 3: Imports - China's refined copper imports in March 2025 totaled 354,275.469 tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.11% and a year-on-year increase of 11.80%, with significant increases from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia [5] - U.S. refined copper imports rose 43% year-on-year in February to 58,326 tons, with shipments from Chile increasing by 53% [6] Group 4: Consumption - Global refined copper consumption is estimated to have increased by 9% year-on-year in February, driven by demand recovery in major consuming countries [7] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for March was reported at 51.2, up 0.4 points from February, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [8] Group 5: Production - Global refined copper production is expected to grow by 9% in the first two months of the year [10] - Codelco's copper production in Chile declined for the second consecutive month, with February output down 6% year-on-year to 98,100 tons, attributed to operational disruptions at key mines [10] - In contrast, BHP's Escondida mine saw a 16% year-on-year increase in production in February, reaching 113,400 tons [10]

近日,美国总统特朗普与美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之间的争端不断升级。先是鲍 威尔公开表示关税政策影响"或超预期",之后特朗普一周内4次要求美联储降息,不断"炮轰"鲍威尔、甚至 威胁要让他"走人"。其实,始终坚持美联储独立性的鲍威尔,正是特朗普在其第一任期提名的。在美联储 100多年的历史上,还没有哪位主席被总统"炒掉"。 主笔 王晓莹 特朗普一周内4次施压降息 特朗普与鲍威尔之争,要从4月中旬说起。4月16日,鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时说,美国政府已 宣布的关税上调幅度远超预期水平,其带来的经济影响同样可能超出预期,令美联储货币政策制定面临更 棘手局面。按照他的说法,加征关税将推高通胀和抑制经济增长；在现任政府正在实施的重大政策调整 影响下,美国经济很可能会放缓,失业率或将上升,而随着关税政策逐步生效,通胀也可能上升。鲍威尔还 说,美联储不会屈从政治压力,面对特朗普政府近期关税政策带来的复杂经济局面,美联储将重点考虑对抗 通胀。 鲍威尔作出此番表态的第二天,特朗普就在社交媒体上大肆抨击,称鲍威尔的行动总是"又迟又错","行动 太慢的鲍威尔早该像欧洲央行一样降息了,现在更应该立即降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank of Indonesia is assessing the direct and indirect impacts of U.S. tariffs, particularly on exports from countries like India, which may face reduced demand due to economic slowdown [1] Group 1 - The Indonesian central bank is evaluating the effects of U.S. tariffs on its economy [1] - There is a concern that the economic slowdown could lead to decreased demand for exports from India and other countries [1]

摘要本周三（4月23日）欧市盘中，黄金t+d价格从高位回落，最新黄金td价格报785.01元/克，跌幅 4.64%，最高上探826.96元/克，最低触及782.10元/克。日内将可关注美国4月标普全球制造业PMI初值、 美国4月标普全球服务业PMI初值、美国3月新屋销售总数年化(万户)等数据。 美联储卡什卡利周二在被问及美国总统特朗普抨击美联储主席鲍威尔不降息一事时表示，美联储的货币 政策独立性是基础，是改善经济状况的关键。 卡什卡利还指出，现在判断利率的正确路径还为时过早。他表示，最近美国国债收益率的上升以及美元 的疲软表明，一些投资者正在重新评估是否要在美国投资，并补充说，资本流动的减少可能导致美债收 益率上升。 【黄金t+d行情分析】 美国总统特朗普表示，无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，受此影响，美元短线飙升截至北京时间14:44，美 元指数报99.16。黄金td上方阻力关注840-845，下方支撑看750-755。 本周三（4月23日）欧市盘中，黄金T+D价格从高位回落，最新黄金td价格报785.01元/克，跌幅4.64%， 最高上探826.96元/克，最低触及782.10元/克。日内将可关注美国4月标普全 ...