Core Viewpoint - The narrative of "American exceptionalism" is being challenged as global asset allocation shifts away from US assets towards other markets, driven by factors such as tariffs, stagflation, and AI industry developments [1][2][4]. Global Asset Reallocation - The transition from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" is seen as a potential long-term paradigm shift rather than a short-term narrative [5]. - As of June 2, 2023, major global equity markets like Germany's DAX and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index have risen by 20.2% and 15.6% respectively, while US indices have remained flat [3]. - The US Treasury bond yields have seen a decline, with the 20-year yield at approximately 5% and the 10-year yield at about 4.5%, indicating a loss of confidence in US debt [4]. Market Performance and Predictions - The macroeconomic environment suggests that the US may be entering a phase of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency, termed "triple kill" [3]. - The potential for a decline in the US dollar's attractiveness could lead to capital outflows, further exacerbating the situation [3]. - The impact of tariffs on the US economy is expected to manifest in the latter half of the year, increasing the risk of economic downturn and putting pressure on the dollar [6]. Investment Opportunities - Emerging markets and alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrencies are anticipated to gain traction as the narrative around US assets weakens [8][9]. - The focus on European markets is increasing, particularly in sectors like defense and infrastructure, which may benefit from geopolitical developments [10]. - The Chinese market is viewed positively, especially in the technology sector, which is expected to perform well due to lower valuations and less correlation with the US market [11].

Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold, increasing allocation to Chinese stocks, shifting from aggressive to defensive in US stocks, underweighting global commodities, and maintaining a standard allocation in domestic and foreign bonds to achieve good returns [1]. Core Viewpoints - The US tariff policy is the main contradiction affecting global asset performance in the first half of 2025, with significant impacts on market sentiment and asset allocation strategies [2]. - The report highlights the potential for a "super cycle" in certain commodities driven by green transformation, although short-term economic cycles may have a more significant impact on commodity prices [6]. - The AI revolution is seen as a major opportunity for stock assets, particularly in the context of China's market, which is expected to benefit from the application of AI technologies [4]. Summary by Sections Tariff Outlook - The unexpected impact of US tariffs since April has led to a shift towards a risk-averse market environment, with tariffs remaining a significant factor influencing global trade and economic conditions [2]. - The report notes that the average effective tariff rate in the US is close to 16%, significantly higher than the 2.4% level at the end of 2024, indicating potential negative effects on global trade [2]. Dollar Cycle - The report indicates that the long-term dollar bull market may be coming to an end, with expectations of a decline in the dollar's value impacting the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [3]. - It predicts that the US fiscal deficit may continue to shrink in 2025, potentially leading to a lack of support for economic growth [3]. Technology Cycle - The emergence of AI is expected to drive a new wave of technological revolution, with significant implications for stock market performance, particularly in the US and China [4]. - The report emphasizes that Chinese stocks have not fully priced in the potential of AI, suggesting a valuation advantage [4]. Real Estate Cycle - The report discusses the stabilization of the real estate market in China post-September 2024, although it notes that the market has not yet completed its downward cycle [7]. - It highlights the relationship between credit cycles and real estate cycles, suggesting that stock markets may respond positively during periods of deleveraging [7]. Asset Allocation Insights - The report recommends an asset allocation strategy that favors gold, high-dividend bonds, and Chinese technology stocks while being cautious with US stocks and commodities [8]. - It suggests that the uncertainty surrounding US fiscal policy and inflation could lead to opportunities in US Treasuries, although the overall outlook remains cautious [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition into a "new phase" of transformation and a "reform period" for policies, questioning whether external shocks are obstacles or opportunities [5] - It highlights the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative as a significant expectation gap in the first half of the year [8] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is identified as a major contradiction for the second half of the year, with a focus on inflation trends [9] Deep Dive Topics - The mid-year outlook emphasizes the need for new changes in policies, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs, tax cuts, and monetary policy, as domestic export data enters a "verification period" [11] - The article explores the emergence of new policy financial tools aimed at stabilizing growth, suggesting that these tools are becoming increasingly relevant [12][14] - The booming inbound tourism sector is analyzed, noting the expansion of visa-free access for additional countries, which is expected to have significant macroeconomic implications [15] High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes a shift in export strategies, with a transition from targeting emerging markets to focusing on the U.S. market [17] - It identifies three characteristics of stabilizing core CPI based on May inflation data [19] - The upcoming second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is highlighted, with stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data [22] Policy Updates - Recent communications between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump emphasize the importance of maintaining a cooperative relationship and mutual respect [27][28] - The article discusses the implications of ongoing trade negotiations with various countries, including Canada, the EU, and Mexico, and their potential outcomes [23]

摩根士丹利分析师周四在一份报告中表示，他们认为股市正在形成"新的'牛市论'"。 这一观点源于"过去30天内对'对等关税'的几乎完全逆转以及与中国贸易紧张局势的成功缓和"所带来的 市场反弹。 该银行表示，这一复苏使风险市场完全收复了"解放日"后回调的失地，年初至今的回报率现已转为"正 值"。 此外，还有"认为通胀风险被高估；低油价是有利因素；美联储将很快开始降息"，"相信前期加载的企 业减税"将推动"资本支出和生产力繁荣"，以及"生成式人工智能仍处于早期阶段"的信念。 摩根士丹利指出，"预计标普500指数2026年盈利增长将从2025年的7-8%加速至13-14%"。 然而，他们也警告说，股票估值的复苏已将远期市盈率推高至"21.5倍以上"，而"股权风险溢价仅为6个 基点"。 据称，风险包括"全球收益率曲线"陡峭化和美国预算赤字扩大，摩根士丹利认为这可能是"美国例外论 的不利因素"。 作者：Investing 摩根士丹利指出，标普500指数目前约为6,000点，较2月19日的历史最高点仅低约2.3%，而纳斯达克指 数"已从低点反弹超过25%"。 该银行写道，市场波动性（以VIX衡量）"已大幅下降，读数现已低于其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global macroeconomic narratives from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," driven by factors such as tariff impacts, fiscal constraints, and the implications of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [2][8]. Group 1: Narrative Shift - The global macroeconomic narrative has transitioned from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" in the first half of 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and trade conflicts [3][8]. - In early 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral mark for three consecutive months, indicating resilience in industrial production, but fell below 50 in April [2][8]. - The IMF revised its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, with the U.S. forecast reduced from 2.7% to 1.8% [2][23]. Group 2: Economic Contradictions - The economic impact of tariffs has become a central theme, with the focus shifting to macro data validation rather than negotiation processes [4][53]. - The average tariff rate in the U.S. surged from 2.4% at the end of 2024 to approximately 16% by May 2025, marking a significant increase [4][54]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects but could increase long-term debt supply pressure [4][84]. Group 3: Paradigm Shift in Asset Safety - The current economic baseline for the U.S. is a slowdown without recession, with inflationary pressures expected to persist for 2-3 quarters [5][8]. - The article suggests that if the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds no longer serve as "safe assets," it could challenge the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks and the sustainability of twin deficits [6][8]. - The transition from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" raises questions about the long-term viability of U.S. assets in the global market [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The major expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, influenced by factors such as the Deepseek moment, Trump's tariff impacts, and fiscal constraints in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Narrative Shift - The narrative is shifting from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," with the global macroeconomic environment remaining stable overall, despite tariff disruptions affecting global industrial production and trade [2][3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the 50 mark for three consecutive months, indicating expansion, but fell back to 49.8 in April [2] - The IMF has revised down its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs and Legislation - The tariff-induced economic shock is expected to be a central theme throughout the year, with a focus on macro data validation rather than negotiation processes [4] - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure due to higher deficits [4] - The act includes approximately 80% of existing tax cut extensions and 20% of new tax measures, which may not fully offset tariff revenues [4] Group 3: Paradigm Shift in Asset Safety - The baseline assumption for the U.S. economy under current tariff levels is "slowing but not recession," with inflationary pressures and economic downturn risks being relatively balanced [5] - Bloomberg consensus anticipates that inflation rebound will last for about 2-3 quarters, with year-end PCE and core PCE inflation peaks expected at 3.1% and 3.3%, respectively [5] - The U.S. may have entered a phase of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, driven by high inflation and twin deficits, which could undermine the perceived safety of U.S. assets [5][6]

Group 1 - The concept of "American exceptionalism" is becoming less applicable as investors shift towards global diversification in their asset allocation [1][2] - Historically, during market turmoil, significant capital flowed into the US due to the perception of the dollar and US Treasury bonds as safe havens, but this trend is changing [1] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" for the first time in 108 years, primarily due to rising government debt and interest payment ratios [1] Group 2 - The US Treasury bonds, once considered the most reliable investment, are losing their appeal, with the 20-year Treasury yield rising to approximately 5% and the 10-year yield reaching about 4.5% [1] - The dollar is weakening amid market volatility, and predictions suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates, further contributing to the dollar's decline [2] - Global investors are actively pursuing diversified investment strategies in response to the uncertainty surrounding US debt and tariffs imposed on foreign goods [2]

Group 1: Investment Environment - The global investment environment is currently complex, requiring investors to be more cautious in asset allocation [1][5] - The focus for global investors in the second half of the year will be on tariffs, potential Fed rate cuts, and global diversification [2][4] - The "American exceptionalism" theory may no longer apply, prompting a shift towards global asset allocation [2][4] Group 2: Sector Opportunities - In the U.S., technology and power sectors are highlighted as attractive investment areas [1][7] - In Asia, China's technology sector shows significant appeal [1][7] - In Europe, defense, industrial sectors, and small-cap stocks present investment opportunities [1][7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to remain resilient, with potential monetary policy easing of 50-100 basis points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [4] - The U.S. economy may face challenges, with inflation expected to rise and GDP growth forecasted at 1.5% [4] - The U.S. faces significant debt repayment pressures, with interest payments reaching 1 trillion dollars [4] Group 4: Market Strategies - A neutral outlook is held for U.S. equities, with high valuations limiting upside potential [6] - Seeking permanent income through high-rated bonds is recommended, along with diversification in fixed income strategies [7] - A mid-term weakening of the dollar is anticipated, suggesting reduced exposure to dollar cash and increased allocation to currencies like yen, euro, pound, and Australian dollar [7] Group 5: Long-term Investment Directions - Focus on transformative innovation opportunities such as artificial intelligence, power and resources, and longevity economy [8] - Artificial intelligence is viewed as a significant investment opportunity, contributing to GDP growth [8] - Global electricity consumption is expected to grow, particularly in construction, industry, and transportation sectors [8]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇、赵宇 联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 2025年上半年，全球宏观经济最大的预期差是"美国例外论"被证伪，原因包括Deepseek时刻、特朗普关税 冲击和美国财政约束。下半年，关税谈判的潜在反复、滞胀预期的验证和《美丽大法案》（One Big Beautiful Bill Act）的落地相互交织，如何把握短期交易节奏、理解"美国否定论"叙事下的全球资金再平衡 的趋势？ 一、叙事切换：从"美国例外论"到"美国否定论" 2025年上半年，全球宏观经济整体平稳，关税扰动导致全球工业生产和商品贸易"前置"。 2025年1-3月，标 普全球制造业PMI连续3个月运行于50荣枯线以上（50.1、50.6和50.3），4月重回49.8。商品贸易量价呈V 型，截止到5月底，商品贸易价格增速已恢复至年初水平。 然而，美国对等关税引发的新一轮全面贸易冲突为下半年的商品贸易、工业生产和经济增长蒙上了"阴 影"。 IMF 4月世界经济展望下修2025年全球GDP增速预测至2.8%，较1月下降了0.5个百分点。其中，美国 从2.7%下调到1.8%，欧元区从1%下调到0.8% ...

" 聪明钱 " 闻风而动 《金融时报》称，近几个月来，美国政府反复无常的贸易政策令全球市场动荡不安，今年美国股市的表 现远远落后于欧洲股市。美元指数也从特朗普开始第二任期时的110左右一路下滑到100以下。美元下跌 让全球投资者多了一个避开美债的理由。美国《华尔街日报》报道称，美元走弱的风险以及对冲这一风 险的成本，正削弱美国资产在全球的吸引力。这对美国国债市场而言可谓"雪上加霜"，该市场已经因美 国财政预算前景黯淡和贸易战承压。 在这一背景下，资金管理者正在重新考虑资产配置。包括加拿大魁北克储蓄投资集团、橡树资本等在内 的多家大型机构已开始减少对美投资，转向欧洲等更具稳定性的市场。英国资产管理公司施罗德首席执 行官理奥尔德菲尔德表示："我们观察到，投资者正逐渐减少对美国的投资。"管理着2030亿美元资产的 橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯也开始质疑美国市场的地位。他认为，一个世纪以来，美国一直是 世界最佳投资地，但现在开始听到投资者质疑"美国例外论"，并考虑调整投资组合。 英国《金融城早报》报道称，越来越多的客户要求投资巨头高盛将资金撤出美国。高盛公司客户解决方 案主管吉布森说："人们认为美国不再像之前那样 ...