报告指出，由于"海外消费者抵制美国产品"以及关税消息公布后入境旅游减少，市场对美国资产的情绪 正在恶化，这些因素都对GDP构成了轻微但持续的拖累。高盛称："外国支出计划远超预期，而美国资 产表现则相对疲弱，这一组合已经导致了部分短暂但活跃的资本从美国资产中撤离。" 智通财经APP获悉，高盛研究部门预计，随着贸易紧张、政策不确定性以及美国经济增长放缓对投资者 信心和对美国资产的外国需求产生压力，美元将面临贬值。 高盛指出："2025年第一季度美元兑主要货币的走弱预计将会持续。""我们此前曾指出，美国资产具有 卓越回报前景，这是美元估值强劲的根本原因。但如果关税压缩了美国企业的利润空间、降低了美国家 庭的实际收入，这种'美国例外论'可能会被侵蚀。"高盛预测美元兑欧元将下跌10%，兑日元和英镑将分 别下跌9%。 高盛指出，目前的关税特点是"广泛且单边的"，这可能会将经济负担更多地转移到美国身上。该行表 示："美国企业和消费者变成了价格接受者……如果供应链或消费者在短期内缺乏弹性，那么调整的结 果可能是美元贬值。" 关于提议中的10%普遍关税，高盛评论称："虽然这一政策远未确定，但如今已具备实施的可能……当 前的贸易 ...

Group 1: Dollar Outlook - The US dollar is expected to continue weakening, with strategists from JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank indicating a bearish sentiment among traders, the highest in five years [1] - The dollar index has dropped 6% against a basket of currencies this year, reflecting concerns over the unpredictability of US policy [1] - There is skepticism among investors regarding the Trump administration's intentions to weaken the dollar to support US manufacturing [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index rose 4.5% this week, driven by optimism in tech stocks and subdued inflation data, with US stock funds attracting approximately $19.8 billion in inflows, the first in five weeks [4] - Despite a brief rise in the dollar following news of a temporary tariff reduction between the US and China, it later retraced most of its gains, indicating a lack of confidence from international investors in the US narrative [4] Group 3: Investment Trends - Deutsche Bank noted a slowdown in capital inflows into US assets, with Taiwan's banks reviewing their risk management agreements for US investments, suggesting a potential decrease in US Treasury purchases [6] - JPMorgan strategists argue that the softening of US tariff positions will support economic growth in other regions, boosting their currencies [7] - Investors are increasingly looking to short the dollar against currencies from countries holding significant dollar reserves, with a focus on the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah [7]

Group 1 - The core sentiment on Wall Street remains bearish towards the US dollar despite a strong rebound in the US stock market this week, with strategists from JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank predicting continued weakness in the dollar [1][5] - The US dollar has declined over 6% against a basket of currencies this year, with the dollar index currently at 100.81 [1] - Market sentiment towards the dollar has shifted to a complex "love-hate" relationship, with the highest level of bearish bets on the dollar in the options market since 2020 [4][5] Group 2 - The recent inflow of approximately $19.8 billion into US stock funds marks the first inflow in five weeks, indicating a temporary positive sentiment towards equities [4] - Analysts note that the performance of the dollar is lagging behind the stock market, suggesting international investors do not align with the "American exceptionalism" narrative promoted by the Trump administration [4] - JPMorgan's strategists argue that the softening stance on tariffs will support economic growth in other regions, thereby boosting their currencies [5] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank's global currency strategist highlights a slowdown in capital inflows into US assets, with some countries reassessing their risk management protocols for US investments [5] - There is a notable decoupling between US Treasury yields and the dollar, with expectations of a decline in the dollar against the yen as Japanese investors reduce their purchases [6] - Investors are increasingly looking to short the dollar against currencies from countries with excessive dollar holdings, with the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah identified as key targets [6]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.4% on Thursday, marking four consecutive days of gains, driven by strong performance in value stocks, particularly high-dividend stocks [1][2] - The Nasdaq 100 index only slightly increased by 0.1%, primarily due to declines in major tech stocks, which had previously led the market recovery [1] Sector Performance - Utility, consumer staples, and real estate sectors, characterized by relatively low valuations and stable dividends, led the market gains, with American Water Works, Campbell Soup Company, and Invitation Homes Inc. seeing significant stock price increases [2] - The consumer staples sector surged nearly 3%, real estate rose by 1.8%, and utilities increased by 2.1%, while technology and communication services sectors experienced declines of 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively [9] Economic Indicators - Weak retail sales and producer price data in April reinforced expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [5] - Despite solid sales and profit growth, Walmart reported a drop in operating profit and warned of upcoming price increases due to rising tariff costs, resulting in a 0.5% decline in its stock price [5] Corporate Developments - Foot Locker's stock surged by 86% following news of its acquisition by Dick's Sporting Goods for approximately $2.4 billion, marking the largest single-day increase since at least 1980 [10] - Cisco provided a strong quarterly earnings outlook, driven by robust demand for AI network systems infrastructure, leading to a nearly 5% increase in its stock price [13] Trade Relations - Recent trade discussions between the U.S. and China resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs, with the new rates for most goods dropping from 145% to 30% [8] - Despite the positive trade developments, the average tariff rate in the U.S. remains at its highest level since 1934, indicating ongoing trade tensions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is expected to benefit from structural challenges facing the US dollar, with projections indicating a rise from 1.1208 to 1.20 against the dollar within the next 12 months [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Structural challenges for the US dollar are highlighted, including significant political changes in the US and Eurozone, ongoing trade uncertainties, and signs of capital outflows from US assets [1] - The rationale for "American exceptionalism" is diminishing, leading to increased risk exposure for the dollar [1]

文/中金大类资产研究：李昭，杨晓卿， 屈博韬 美国股债汇重现"三杀"，或反映通胀环境与美元周期发生重大变化。"三杀"的本质是美元资产中安全资产（债券与现金）的避险能力下降，难以对冲 风险资产（股票与商品）的回调亏损。在美元资产内部进行资产配置，无法有效分散风险，需警惕美国股债汇"三杀"反复化、长期化的可能性。 美元资产面临困局，美债美元避险能力下降，导致安全资产更为稀缺，有助于提升黄金的配置价值。美股前景不确定性增大，让非美风险资产的吸引 力相对上升，中欧股票可能体现相对韧性。 点击小程序查看报告原文 资产配置视角看美国股债汇"三杀" 4月初美国对等关税落地后，标普500最大回撤达12%，十年期美债利率从4.0%一度冲高至4.5%，美元指数跌破100，股债汇"三杀"引发市场高度关注。 股债汇三杀在美国市场并不多见，首先因为美股牛长熊短，股票大部分时间都在上涨。当股票遭遇负面冲击下跌时，美债与美元作为传统避险资产趋于上 涨，进而避免三杀。长期而严重的美国股债汇三杀集中发生在上世纪70-80年代的"大通胀"时代，例如1976年末开始的三杀，持续时间超过一年。 图表1：历史上的美国长期严重的股债汇"三杀"集中出现在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the US dollar following the easing of US-China trade tensions is seen as temporary, with expectations of a prolonged "dollar bear market" emerging due to the chaotic economic policies of the Trump administration [1][4]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Sentiment - Many large hedge fund clients are indicating that they have not yet significantly reduced their dollar exposure, despite the ongoing trade tensions and market volatility [2]. - Institutional investors, who have invested trillions in US stocks and bonds over the past decade, are recalibrating their portfolios and reducing their dollar asset holdings, which is expected to exert significant selling pressure on the dollar [1][6]. Group 2: Economic Concerns and Market Reactions - The aggressive tariff policies initiated by the Trump administration have led to fears of "stagflation" or even a "deep recession" in the US economy, contributing to the decline in confidence in dollar assets [4][5]. - Following the recent trade truce between the US and China, the dollar index surged to a one-month high, but concerns about economic slowdown and rising inflation have led to significant sell-offs in US stocks and assets [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for the Dollar - The total value of US securities held by foreign investors has doubled to a record $32 trillion over the past decade, and a large-scale sell-off of these assets could lead to a prolonged "super long-term bear market" for the dollar [6]. - Analysts predict a structural shift away from dollar assets, with expectations that the dollar's overvaluation will gradually correct as the advantages of US assets diminish [7]. Group 4: Predictions from Financial Institutions - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have both forecasted the end of the dollar bull market, citing factors such as reduced willingness to finance US deficits and a peak in US asset holdings [7]. - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the euro/dollar exchange rate will rise to 1.15 by the end of 2025 and further to 1.30, indicating a significant shift in global capital flows and economic policies in response to US trade policies [7].

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of "American exceptionalism" is converging, accelerated by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and trade imbalances, leading to a shift in global investment focus towards Asia and Europe [3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Context - The core of "American exceptionalism" is tied to the dollar's role as a global reserve currency, which has been challenged by trade deficits and the need to maintain dollar stability [3]. - The phenomenon of "American exceptionalism" is expected to peak in early 2025, with its convergence driven by fiscal and trade imbalances in the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends in Asia - The convergence of "American exceptionalism" enhances the investment outlook for Asia, as global investors are expected to recalibrate their focus away from the U.S. towards more stable and undervalued Asian markets [4]. - Since early May, Asian currencies have experienced a collective surge, attributed to a weaker dollar, trade surpluses, and reduced dollar absorption effects [5]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation Strategies - Investors are advised to enhance portfolio volatility resistance, with expectations that government bonds in the U.S. and Europe may outperform stocks amid economic slowdowns [6]. - Gold is recommended as a risk-hedging asset, with a buying opportunity identified in the range of $3,000 to $3,250 per ounce [7]. - A shift in investment from U.S. equities to European and Chinese stocks is suggested, driven by increased policy support in these regions [7]. Group 4: Investment Focus in China - The Chinese stock market is characterized by an "internal focus," with pricing logic primarily based on domestic economic growth [8]. - The total net profit of all listed companies in China is projected to increase by 3.58% year-on-year, with significant growth in agriculture, steel, and technology sectors [8][9]. - Key investment themes in China include sectors benefiting from domestic consumption policies, import substitution, fiscal stimulus, and infrastructure development [9].

Core Viewpoint - Large institutional investors, including pension funds, are significantly reducing their exposure to U.S. dollar assets and reallocating towards European markets, driven by factors such as unpredictable Trump policies and ongoing tariff conflicts [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Behavior - Investors are experiencing a historic reduction in U.S. stock allocations, with the largest outflow of funds to Europe since 1999, as reported by Bank of America [1]. - European ETFs saw a record outflow of €2.5 billion in April, marking the highest since the beginning of 2023 [1]. - The Finnish Veritas pension fund and Danish pension funds have both reduced their U.S. stock exposure, with the latter increasing European stock investments to the highest level since 2018 [2]. Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - There is a notable shift towards non-dollar safe-haven assets, with the euro and German bonds rising sharply, indicating a departure from traditional investment patterns [2]. - Institutional investors are actively selling dollars to buy euros, as observed by Bank of America and Deutsche Bank [2]. - The potential for a structural impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt markets is highlighted, as capital flows reverse from the U.S. to other markets [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation Concerns - Concerns over high valuations in the U.S. stock market are prompting investors to question the rationale behind maintaining such premium prices, as noted by the CIO of Veritas [2]. - The California Teachers' Retirement Fund is reassessing its positions, warning of risks associated with tariff policies that could lead to significant sell-offs of U.S. debt by major trading partners [3].

Group 1: Economic Observations - Nashville has emerged as a new economic hub in the U.S., with GDP growth from $144 billion to $204 billion from 2018 to 2023, marking a national growth rate of 3.1% for 2024 [11] - The city has attracted manufacturing companies due to tax incentives, with Nissan's U.S. headquarters located there [9] - Nashville's economy is bolstered by major employers such as HCA, Amazon, and Oracle, contributing to job creation and urban development [11] Group 2: Cultural Insights - Nashville is recognized as a cultural center, particularly for country music, and has become a popular destination for events like bachelor parties [11] - The local population exhibits a strong sense of community and cultural identity, with a significant presence of Christian faith reflected in the number of churches [13][15] Group 3: Investment Perspectives - U.S. LPs (Limited Partners) express confidence in the long-term attractiveness of the U.S. economy, viewing current market conditions as a reset rather than a crisis [41] - There is a notable trend of capital allocation towards quality names in response to tariff impacts, with expectations of increased domestic production from companies like Ford and GM [38] - The investment landscape is characterized by a focus on tax optimization strategies, with many funds prioritizing long-term holdings to minimize tax liabilities [43]