Core Viewpoint - The migration of deposits to wealth management products is increasing, driven by lower deposit rates and the search for higher returns, but the wealth management market faces challenges such as market volatility and declining asset yields [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Trends - In July, household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, while non-bank institution deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, indicating a shift of funds from traditional savings to other asset classes [2][3]. - The growth rate of household deposits has been declining for three consecutive months, with July's growth rate at 10.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from June [2][3]. - The gap between household deposit growth and M2 growth has narrowed significantly, suggesting a potential confirmation of the deposit migration trend if it falls into negative territory [2][3]. Group 2: Wealth Management Market Dynamics - The scale of bank wealth management products is expected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase of approximately 2 trillion yuan by July 2025, reaching 32.67 trillion yuan [3][6]. - The average performance benchmark for open-ended wealth management products is 2.27%, while closed-end products average 2.51%, both showing slight declines [5]. - The current market is experiencing an "asset shortage," with declining yields on underlying assets, leading to challenges in meeting investor demand for higher returns [5][6]. Group 3: Product Trends and Investor Behavior - There is a notable shift towards low-volatility and stable short-term fixed-income products as investors seek alternatives to traditional deposits [6][7]. - The popularity of rights-embedded products is increasing, driven by the recent strong performance of the A-share market and the growing demand for enhanced returns [7]. - Cash management products are experiencing negative growth, while open-ended fixed-income products remain the main growth driver due to their liquidity advantages [7].

国债期货日报 2025年8月28日 反弹中断 观点：反复探底 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 周四期债早盘走弱，午后跌幅加剧，品种全线收跌。现券收益率全线上行，长端上行幅度较大。公开市场净 投放1631亿。资金面宽松，DR001保持在1.31%附近。 日内消息： 1.上海发布《关于加快推进本市城中村改造工作的实施意见》。 行情研判： 今日A股午后一度下探，但此后大幅上扬，将昨日跌幅收复大半，尽显强势，导致债市再度大幅走弱。前期有 部分资金选择做多国债期货对冲股市波动风险，这些资金的出逃可能亦是导致期债下跌的原因之一。目前债 市尚不能完全摆脱股债跷跷板的影响，可能需要反复探底。但近两日大盘波动超百点亦表明股市高位后风险 加剧，债市不必过度悲观。操作思路上，反弹有利即可出场，可小仓保留部分低位多单，空仓者可关注前期 低点。 国债期货日度数据 source： wind,南华研究 元 TS基差：主连 TS IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 -0.5 -0.25 0.25 -1 0 1 2 3 长债与超长债利率走势 sou ...

近期股市持续走高，沪指站上3800点再创10年新高，与股市一路走强形成鲜明对比的是，债市却同步经 历显著调整。那么，近期债市回调的原因是什么？后市会如何走？投资者该如何应对？一起来看长城基 金固定收益研究部副总经理吴冰燕的分析。 近期债市经历大幅回调，主要原因有哪些？ 吴冰燕：主要因素在于"股债跷跷板"和风险偏好抬升。四月初中美关税冲击以来，股票市场稳定修复， 呈现"高收益，低波动"的反常表现，其风险收益比明显高于债券，造成资金分流。同时，商品市场同步 上涨也进一步压制了债市情绪。另一方面，债券收益率去年12月一定程度上以大斜率超速下行，今年债 市整体呈"N"型走势，即使有关税冲击等突发利好，10Y国债收益率也未曾突破1月初低点，总体上其实 是在对去年底透支的下行空间进行修复，利率中枢在降准降息等重大利好出台之前难创新低。因此，债 券与股票、商品资产的不同表现带来一定的资产配置转移倾向。此外，虽然部分经济指标还有待改善， 但政治局会议明确"反内卷"决心，需求端政策陆续推出，引发市场对于供需矛盾改善的预期，也提振了 市场风险偏好。 吴冰燕：目前债券市场虽暂时受到压制，但经济数据显示宏观经济运行周期仍在市场预期内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently facing contradictions due to "anti-involution" policies and future inflation expectations, leading to adjustments in market sentiment and investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) rose by 0.07% on August 27, indicating stable performance, with a support level around 1.8% for the 10-year bond yield due to long-term institutional investments [1]. - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a recommendation for a wave trading strategy, as the yield remains above 1.75%, suggesting value in long-term bonds [1]. - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, and rising inflation could increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts by year-end, which may lead to a potential restart of government bond trading [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The strong performance of the stock market is exerting pressure on the bond market, with prevailing pessimistic expectations among investors [2]. - Historical analysis shows that the relationship between stocks and bonds is unstable, as major bond market investors (like banks and insurance companies) are unlikely to shift significant funds to the stock market due to risk considerations [2]. - The high valuation of bonds, following a three-year bull market, has led to yields being at historical lows, making them relatively expensive compared to the dividend yields of the CSI 300 index (2.5-3%) [2]. - The release of pessimistic sentiment may create investment opportunities for bottom-fishing in the bond market after significant declines [2].

观点：反弹持续 国债期货日报 2025年8月27日 反弹或可看高一线 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 周三期债早盘下探，午后回升，全线收涨。现券收益率短端下行，长端在期货盘后略微上行。公开市场净回 笼2361亿。资金面宽松，DR001保持在1.31%附近。 日内消息： 1.1-7月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额40203.5亿元，同比下降1.7%，降幅略收窄。 2..特朗普称已完成同欧盟、日本、韩国贸易协议。特朗普将印度关税加倍至50%的行政令生效。 行情研判： 今日A股午盘再次尝试放量上冲，全A指数再创新高，但此后遭遇了明显的回吐压力，可见大盘在3800-3900 压力较大，短期有震荡加剧的可能。目前债市尚不能完全摆脱股债跷跷板的影响，盘中走势依然受股市影 响，但连续几日股市创出新高之时，期债日内低点却逐渐上升，午后股市调整，债市借机反弹。短期股市若 调整加剧，债市可继续拓展反弹空间，10年国债或可向上回补18日的缺口。操作上，低位多单可继续持有， 空仓者逢低介入。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-08-27 | 2025-08- ...

过去的经验不是没有用，而是把过去的经验提炼成应对市场的策略，战胜自我的心理。不是简单地拿过去的历史数据去算个概率，然后就按某个概率去简 单地套用。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250827— 精准卡位3800（+股市大跌-资金面略有收敛=微上)】 资金面略有收敛，资金利率较为平稳，DR001在1.31%附近（匿名资金利率上行），DR007在1.51%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.08.27) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 成高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.36 | | | 2.00 | 20 | 64357. 14 | -518, 88 | 85. 36 | | R007 | 1.54 | | N | 1.80 | -29 | 8632. 79 | -650, ...

Market Overview - The bond market continued to show a strong consolidation trend, with the main government bond futures generally rising, while the yield on interbank cash bonds fluctuated within 1 basis point, mostly declining in the afternoon [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained liquidity stability, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the open market on August 27 [1][6] Bond Futures and Yields - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase across all maturities, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.24% to 117.4, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 108.02 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.9825% [2] Credit Market Dynamics - The credit bond market is at a turning point with both pressures and opportunities, as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect continues to suppress bond market sentiment [9] - Despite the recent rise in credit bond yields, the absolute value of credit bonds is gradually becoming more apparent as yields approach yearly highs [9] Economic Indicators - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 40,203.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that industrial production remained stable, with policies gradually implemented to promote reasonable price level recovery, leading to a continuous narrowing of profit declines [7][8] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the current bond market is influenced more by sentiment rather than economic fundamentals, with a low interest rate environment exacerbating the issue of insufficient returns [9] - Changjiang Fixed Income suggested that under stable liability conditions, there is an opportunity to gradually increase duration in the credit bond market, focusing on a barbell strategy with short-term high liquidity assets and long-term undervalued bonds [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, suggesting holding [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Suggesting range trading; bearish on near-term glass contracts [1][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Suggesting moderately holding long positions at low levels for copper; buying on dips for aluminum; suggesting range trading for nickel and tin; buying on dips for silver and gold after price corrections [1][10] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy; other products are mostly expected to oscillate [1][19] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate [1][34] - Agricultural and Livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs when prices are high; corn is expected to oscillate within a range; soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; oils are expected to oscillate at high levels [1][38] Core Views - The global stock market has shown a synchronized upward trend after the tariff conflict, mainly due to the global pricing of interest rate cut expectations and the recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The A-share market is expected to enter an upward trend, with the realization of profit improvement expectations as the main driver in the next stage [5] - The bond market shows a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market is under pressure from the strong performance of the equity market, there is still room for the central bank to increase its holdings of treasury bonds, and the market expects a bond market recovery [5][6] - The prices of black building materials such as coking coal, steel, and glass are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and safety inspections, and are expected to maintain an oscillating or weakening trend in the short term [7][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are influenced by factors such as global central bank policies, supply and demand, and inventory. Some metals are expected to have upward potential in the future [10][11] - The prices of energy and chemical products such as PVC, caustic soda, and styrene are affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and macro policies, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][22] - The prices of agricultural products such as cotton, apples, and jujubes are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, and are expected to oscillate or show a strong oscillating trend [34][35] - The prices of agricultural and livestock products such as pigs, eggs, and corn are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and consumption seasons, and are expected to show different trends in the short and long term [38][40] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Stock Indices: On Tuesday, the market oscillated and adjusted, with the three major indices showing different trends. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 10 consecutive days. The market is expected to enter an upward trend, and investors should maintain positions, choose opportunities, and make appropriate internal high-low switches [5] - Treasury Bonds: On Tuesday, the bond market showed a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market was under pressure from the equity market, the news that the central bank has room to increase its holdings of treasury bonds boosted the bond market. The bond market is expected to recover [5][6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: On August 25, coal prices continued to decline, with the sales atmosphere being cold and the decline slightly increasing. The downstream market has a low willingness to purchase, and safety inspections continue to be upgraded. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - Steel: On Tuesday, steel futures prices were weak. The supply and demand in the real economy have weakened, but the off-season is coming to an end. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] - Glass: On August 26, glass futures declined. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices. The near-term contract is expected to decline slightly, while the long-term contract can be observed for signs of stabilization [8] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: After the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell's dovish remarks boosted copper prices. The domestic market demand has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with a suggested strategy of moderately holding long positions at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation have been affected by the rainy season. The domestic downstream demand is expected to enter the peak season, and the inventory has shown marginal improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus situation. The price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of stainless steel has declined. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [14][15] - Tin: The domestic refined tin production has increased, and the import of tin concentrate has decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15] - Silver and Gold: Powell's dovish remarks at the central bank summit have increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The trade negotiation results have been announced, and the market is optimistic about the signing of a trade agreement between Europe and the United States. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and cost disturbances [19][20] - Caustic Soda: The spot price increase has slowed down, and there is a short-term callback due to warehouse receipt factors. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and export conditions [22] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the macro policy is favorable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply [24] - Rubber: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little, and the inventory has decreased. The tire companies' willingness to purchase high-priced raw materials has decreased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26] - Urea: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, the compound fertilizer inventory is high, and the enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price support level [28] - Methanol: The supply has increased slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate due to the influence of industrial product prices [29][30] - Polyolefins: The cost is supported by coal-based olefins, the supply of polyethylene has decreased due to maintenance, the downstream demand has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the L contract is expected to have stronger support [30][31] - Soda Ash: The spot market is still sluggish, and the 09 contract faces delivery pressure. The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to implement a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, the macro environment has become better, and the peak season is approaching. The cotton price is expected to be strong [34][35] - Apples: The early-maturing apples are on the market, with the quality and price varying. The inventory of Fuji apples is stable and light. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating trend based on low inventory and growth factors [35] - Jujubes: The jujube trees are in the fruit expansion period, and the weather may affect the quality. The market price is expected to oscillate upward in the near term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The market has a bullish expectation for the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the spot performance is disappointing. The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to take a short position on the 11 and 01 contracts and consider a long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [38][40] - Eggs: The current main contract has a large premium. The spot price may rebound slightly, and it is recommended to short when the price rebounds. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to factors such as chicken culling and cold storage eggs [40][42] - Corn: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is expected to increase. The cost has decreased, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds or implement a 11-1 reverse arbitrage strategy [42][44] - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure from state reserves. However, the cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [44][45] - Oils: The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and policies. They are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a rolling long strategy. Attention should be paid to the palm oil 1-5 spread arbitrage opportunity [46][51]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for more "Trump-aligned" appointees, which could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts next year [1] - Following the removal announcement, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell, indicating market reactions to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future [1] Fixed Income - The report indicates a cautious approach in the convertible bond market, suggesting a reduction in exposure to high-priced targets while increasing allocations to ETFs to balance risks [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield increased from 1.745% to 1.785%, reflecting market adjustments [2] Industry Insights - Longi Green Energy's Q2 performance showed a reduction in losses, with production capacity gradually increasing, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Zhuhai Guanyu's mobile phone shipments saw significant growth, aligning with expectations, and the company is rated as a "buy" [4] - Hunan YN's profit forecast for 2025-2027 was adjusted downwards due to lithium carbonate price pressures, but the company maintains a "buy" rating based on its market position [7] - The report on Aima Technology indicates a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026, but the company is still rated as a "buy" due to its strong market position and ongoing product development [9] - The report on Yutong Bus highlights performance driven by exports, with expectations for a strong second half of 2025 [10] - The analysis of Minsheng Health indicates stable growth in traditional products and clear growth in probiotics, suggesting a positive outlook for future growth [13] - The report on Ganfeng Lithium indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, but the company is still rated as a "buy" due to its global resource layout [20] - The report on Jianghuai Automobile indicates a strategic partnership with Huawei and ongoing collaborations with other tech firms, maintaining a "buy" rating despite competitive pressures [22] - The report on Yingjia Wine suggests a focus on mid-range products, with expectations for improved performance following inventory clearance [23]

Group 1 - As of July 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China has surpassed 35 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone in the public fund market [1] - The number of public fund management institutions in China stands at 164, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [1] - The public fund scale has shown remarkable growth this year, returning to 32 trillion yuan by the end of February, surpassing 33 trillion yuan by the end of April, and reaching 34.39 trillion yuan by the end of June [1] Group 2 - The number of fund products has also reached a new high, increasing to 13,000 by the end of July, up by 109 products from the previous month [1] - The combined scale of mixed and equity funds reached 8.75 trillion yuan by the end of July, an increase of over 330 billion yuan from the end of June [1] - In contrast, the scale of bond funds has decreased, with the number of shares and scale falling to 5.95 trillion shares and 7.24 trillion yuan, respectively [1] Group 3 - The growth in equity fund scale is closely linked to the rise in net value, with the mixed equity fund index and stock fund index increasing by 5.94% and 5.59% respectively in July [2] - The public fund industry is presented with new development opportunities as the stock market rises, with expectations for improved investor trust if fund performance continues to be strong [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has emphasized the need for high-quality development in the public fund industry, advocating for enhanced core investment research capabilities and the establishment of evaluation systems for fund companies [2]