【导读】八大知名券商首席解读中央经济工作会议 中国基金报 券商报道组 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济 形势，部署2026年经济工作。会议提出 "五个必须" ，对2026年工作提出八项重点任务。 中央经济工作会议是判断当下经济形势和定调第二年宏观经济政策最权威的风向标。 为 更好 地学习贯彻中央经济工作精神， 中国基金报记者采访了中信证券宏观与政策首席分析师杨 帆、华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘、广发证券首席经济学家郭磊、申万宏源首席经济学家 赵伟、国信证券策略首席分析师王开、中金公司首席宏观经济分析师张文朗、中信建投宏观 首席分析师周君芝，以及粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒。 对于五个新"必须"，受访券商首席表示，本次中央经济工作会议提出五个新"必须"，延续并 深化了经济工作的规律性认识。与2024年会议提出的五个"统筹"相比，2025年会议更突出 经济潜能挖掘与政策、改革的协同发力，同时强化内需稳定性保障，政策导向更贴合当前发 展形势。2026年政策的"跨周期"特征将更明显。 关于2026年经济增长，受访券商首席认为，会议提出"不断巩固拓展经济 ...

值得一提的是，证券ETF(159841)获资金积极布局，盘中净申购已达1560万份。 | | 证券ETF 159841 | द्रेन | | --- | --- | --- | | | 土の > 品 照 | | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 岐口 | | 笔数 | 30 | 4 | | 金额 | 0 | 0 | | 份额 | 1800万 | 240万 | 拉长时间看，截至12月11日，证券ETF(159841)最新资金净流入3579.55万元。拉长时间看，近22个交易日内有18日资金净流 入，合计"吸金"2.10亿元。 【产品亮点】 预计后续资本市场活跃度维持高位，深市规模最大、流动性最好的证券ETF(159841)助力把握证券板块投资机遇。 【相关产品】 证券ETF(159841)，对应场外联接基金（A：008590，C：008591）。 【热点事件】 截至2025年12月12日 10:32，证券ETF(159841)成交7602.96万元。跟踪的中证全指证券公司指数(399975)一度拉升翻红。成分股 方面涨跌互现，国联民生(601456)领涨3.50%，中原证券(601375)上涨1.40%，华 ...

今日推荐 中央经济工作会议中关于2026年货币政策延续适度宽松的基调，显示出宏观政策保持很强的连续性、稳 定性。除了总量政策提出运用降准降息外，会议还要求畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持 扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 当地时间11日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在会见记者时表示，在获得国际伙伴提供充分安全保障前提下，他 愿意支持在战时状态下举行大选，并已要求议员着手准备相关立法修订。泽连斯基在与记者会面时表 示，"最重要的是确保选举的合法性。如果我们的合作伙伴能够帮助我们在安全条件下、在合理时间内 组织选举，我将予以支持。为避免这仅仅成为我发出的一个媒体信号，我已正式请求乌克兰议员起草允 许在战时状态期间举行选举的法律修正案。"泽连斯基强调，当前关键目标是以乌克兰的强势地位结束 冲突。 美国电动车制造商特斯拉公司、太空探索技术公司创始人埃隆·马斯克日前表示，如果重来，他不会领 导"政府效率部"，而是专注运营自己的企业。马斯克说："我想我总体上会在我的公司工作，而不是领 导'政府效率部'。这样他们（反对者）就不会烧车了。" 编辑 | 格蕾丝 在11日召开的商务部例行新闻发布会上，新闻发言人表示，今 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report provides a bias assessment for various varieties, with "√" indicating a bullish bias and "V" (assuming it's a typo and should be "√") indicating a bullish bias as well: - Bullish: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), Treasury bonds (TS), Rubber, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Lithium carbonate, Cotton, Corn [5] - Bearish: Crude oil, Methanol, Apple, Container shipping to Europe [5] 2. Report's Core View - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote economic development and stabilize the market [1][7][11] - Under multiple positive factors, the long - term and slow - rising trend of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated, and the resonance of positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut may boost market risk appetite [3][10] - Different futures varieties show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic factors 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 reached 236,000, the highest since the week of September 6, 2025 [6] - **Domestic News**: The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 10 - 11 pointed out the overall requirements and policy orientation for next year's economic work, including continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, stabilizing the real estate market, and resolving local government debt risks [7] - **Industry News**: In November, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million for the first time, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles both approached 15 million, with exports of new energy vehicles doubling year - on - year [7] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report shows the daily returns of various overseas futures on December 10 - 11, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. For example, the S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 6,901.00 points, and ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.55% to $61.55 per barrel [9] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the previous trading day's decline, with the improvement of the system, the expansion of funds, and the empowerment of industries, the long - term and slow - rising trend of the A - share market may be consolidated. The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December and the positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [3][10] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling to 1.831%. The market liquidity is loose. The Fed's interest rate cut and the expected introduction of domestic policies support the short - term Treasury bond futures [11] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session fell 1.27%. The IEA raised the forecast for oil demand growth in 2026, but the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to factors such as weak European demand [13] - **Methanol**: Methanol's night - session fell 1.83%. The domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plant operating rate decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory decreased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [14] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. Overseas supply is increasing, and domestic supply elasticity is weakening. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined. The downstream demand has reached a high level, and the previous price decline was affected by the weakening of crude oil and the overall commodity market. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the price continued to be weak [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to be weak, and soda ash futures mainly declined. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to the potential changes in industrial production and the recovery of the real estate industry chain [17] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion are expected to boost market liquidity and support the long - term upward trend of precious metals [18] - **Copper**: The night - session copper price rose more than 2% due to the Fed's unexpected action. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Zinc**: The night - session zinc price rose nearly 3% due to the Fed's action. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and related factors [20] - **Aluminum**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum rose 0.82%. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support the aluminum price. In the short - to - medium term, the supply is stable, and the demand is okay in the off - season. The upward momentum is weakening in the short term, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is expected to decline. The short - term supply disturbance is the focus. It is recommended to take a bullish view after a callback [22][23] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session coking coal and coke futures continued to be weak. The steel mill's production reduction expectation and the increase in Mongolian coal imports put pressure on the price, but the strong policy expectation in December may provide upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [24] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price declined. The shipping volume increased slightly, and the port inventory increased slightly. The steel mill's demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [25] - **Steel Products**: The steel price volatility increased. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The steel price has short - term rebound momentum but is expected to be weak in the medium term [26] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The night - session soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year, and the US soybean export is slow. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session soybean and palm oil futures were weak, and rapeseed oil rose. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil is expected to be strong in the short term due to positive news [28] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly and are expected to be weak in the short term. The international raw sugar price is affected by Brazil and India, and the domestic supply is increasing, but the cost provides some support [29] - **Cotton**: The overnight cotton price was weak but still above the upper limit of the range. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to factors such as fast sales progress, potential reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC fluctuated, and the 02 contract rose 2.04%. The shipping companies' price - holding intention is strong in December and early January. The 02 contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 04 contract may decline due to supply surplus and potential red - sea route resumption [31]

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 强于大市 中央经济工作会议解读 稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式 事件： 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。关于房地产的表述有两部分。一 部分在坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场中提到高质量发展城市更新。另一部分在坚 持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险中提到着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控 增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公 积金制度改革，有序推动'好房子'建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 核心观点 投资建议 风险提示 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《房地产底线逻辑研究系列报告一：银行直供房热 度背后的真相》（2025/12/05） 《10 月楼市成交同比增速由正转负；房地产高质量 发展列入新的五年规划——房地产行业 2025 年 10 月月报》（2025/11/18） 《受高基数以及政策效果减弱影响，单月销售降幅 扩大；今年以来投资降幅持续扩大——房地产行业 2025 年 10 月统计局数据点评》（2025/11/16） 《房地产行业 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties [1][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for a flexible and efficient monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [7][11] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital flow, and industrial empowerment, with a potential increase in market risk appetite following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [3][10] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to increased supply pressure from domestic sugar factories and high production costs, despite some international price rebounds [2][29] - Copper prices rose over 2% due to expectations from the Federal Reserve's actions, with supply disruptions leading to a shift in global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [3][19] - The aluminum market is supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, while short-term price momentum may weaken due to seasonal demand fluctuations [21] Group 3: Industry-Specific Developments - The automotive industry in China saw a record monthly production exceeding 3.5 million vehicles in November, with significant growth in new energy vehicle production and exports [8] - The international sugar market is influenced by Brazil's faster-than-expected sugarcane processing and India's production recovery, which may impact global sugar prices [2][29] - The domestic methanol market is experiencing a slight increase in production capacity, but overall supply remains under pressure due to import delays and stable demand [14][29]

21 ir 学习领悟中央经济工作会议 提出的"五个必须" e36期 新华社国内部制作 新华社第一工作室出品 12月10日至11日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议上，习近平总书记发表重要讲话，总结2025年经济工 作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 会议鲜明提出，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会，即"五个必须"—— 必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚 持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要。"五个必须"既对以往经济实践作出了深刻精 辟的总结，也为做好当前和今后一个时期的经济工作提供了思想指引和行动指南。 必须充分挖掘经济潜能—— 另一方面，强调"坚持改革攻坚"，明确"制定全国统一大市场建设条例""深入整治'内卷式'竞争""制定和 实施进一步深化国资国企改革方案""拓展要素市场化改革试点"等重点领域与关键环节。 政策支持和改革创新融合促进，政策工具与制度安排相互支撑，既推动现实问题解决，确保实现稳中求 进，又有利于提质增效，实现更高质量、更具韧 ...

改革攻坚方面，此次会议就改革攻坚重点展开了四个方面的内容：其一仍然是统一大市场建设，并再次 强调了深入整治"内卷式"竞争，同时明确要"规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策"，从根源治理新兴产业"内 卷式"竞争问题。其二是激发各类经营主体活力，针对国有企业，我们认为重心或仍在国有经济布局优 化和结构调整，切实发挥国有企业科技创新、产业控制和安全支撑作用；针对民营企业，一方面放宽准 入，支持民企参与"两重"、"两新"，另一方面着力解决拖欠民企账款，持续优化民营企业发展环境。其 三是税制改革，会议再提"健全地方税体系"，指向地方财政困难的现实问题，预计后续将推进消费税征 收环节后移并稳步下划地方，同时研究把城市维护建设税、教育费附加、地方教育附加合并为地方附加 税等。其四是与金融相关的改革措施，一方面，深入推进中小金融机构减量提质，继续做好中小银行的 合并重组，推进中小金融机构风险处置和转型发展；另一方面，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革，推 动资本市场为科技创新、产业升级注入金融活水。 民生方面，本次会议围绕就业、教育、医疗、社会保障等关键民生问题提出一揽子解决新方案。就业上 新增"鼓励支持灵活就业人员、新就业形态人员参加职 ...

【招商证券研发中心宏观首席张静静：中央经济工作会议定调 明年政策仍较为积极】智通财经12月11 日电，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，为经济发展锚定方向。招商证券研发中心宏观首席张静静解读认 为，从会议定调来看，我国经济保持长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势，2026年政策力度不会出现显著的 变化，但去库存重回房地产市场政策工具箱、促进物价合理回升成为明年货币政策的主要目标等新提法 或新要求显示明年政策仍较为积极。一方面，更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策将继续实施； 另一方面，预计明年的预算赤字率、新增政府债务规模等指标将维持现有水平，货币政策将继续调整政 策利率、结构性政策工具利率以及法定存款准备金率。（智通财经记者 林坚） 转自：智通财经 ...

新华社12月11日消息，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续 扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建 设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 要点一：加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟预计，后续政策更加注重财政与货币、总量与结构、存量盘活与增量优 化的协同发力，通过强化政策协同与存量增量联动，实现稳增长与提质增效的双重目标。 明年政策节奏值得关注。国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛认为，如果外部环境相对平稳，则以用好存量政 策空间为主；如果外部环境发生变化，更大力度的增量政策可以相机而动。 要点二：保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量 会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的 ...