Core Viewpoint - The recent data on Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) indicates a weaker-than-expected inflation trend, which may impact the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Tokyo region's September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, below the market expectation of 2.8% [1] - This data reflects a marginal weakening of domestic inflation momentum in Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Despite the CPI data, most institutions and traders still anticipate that the Bank of Japan may implement a rate hike in October [1] - The rationale behind this expectation is that inflation in Japan has consistently exceeded the central bank's price stability target [1] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The weak yen is contributing to import-driven inflation pressures, which policymakers cannot overlook [1] - The recent global financial market sentiment has shown signs of weakening, with geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown concerns reinforcing the yen's traditional safe-haven status [1] Group 4: Market Reactions - The combination of disappointing inflation data and ongoing rate hike expectations has led to a tug-of-war in the yen's performance [1] - If global risk aversion continues to rise or if the Bank of Japan signals any unexpected normalization of policy, it could provide significant support for the yen in the medium term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.35% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 3.92%. The short - term investment strategy for both gold and silver suggests that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][6]. - The short - term core logic for gold includes increased trade - war concerns, ongoing worries about the Fed's independence, rising risks of U.S. economic stagflation, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Trump's new tariffs from the national to the industry level have broken the relatively calm trade situation, and there are still geopolitical disturbances in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more cuts this year. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and rise in a step - like manner in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net longs and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) have all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex gold主力 contract's closing price increased by 0.25% compared to the previous day and 1.89% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions increased by 3.76% compared to the previous week, while Shanghai gold主力 positions decreased by 0.87% compared to the previous day but increased by 10.05% compared to the previous week. LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Futures Company Member Net Position Ranking**: The top 20 long - position members' net long positions totaled 183,220, an increase of 3,550 (41.27% daily increase). The top 20 short - position members' net short positions totaled 23,066, a decrease of 251 (5.20% daily increase) [3]. Silver - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) have all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex silver主力 contract's closing price increased by 3.07% compared to the previous day and 8.00% compared to the previous week [6]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: CFTC silver net longs and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. The recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased. For example, the total visible inventory decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous week [5][6]. - **Futures Company Member Net Position Ranking**: The top 20 long - position members' net long positions totaled 188,609, a decrease of 18,061 (22.28% daily increase). The top 20 short - position members' net short positions totaled 95,783, a decrease of 1,179 (11.31% daily increase) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield increased by 0.83% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI increased by 0.20% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 0.10% year - on - year. The PCE price index increased by 0.14% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index increased by 0.05% year - on - year [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP decreased by 0.30% year - on - year in annualized terms but increased by 4.40% quarter - on - quarter in annualized terms. The unemployment rate increased by 0.10% [10]. - **Other Data**: Geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, VIX index increased by 3.14% compared to the previous day, CRB commodity index increased by 0.55% compared to the previous day, and the offshore RMB increased by 0.39% compared to the previous day [11]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October 2025 is 89.3%, and the probability changes over different meeting dates in the future [12].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown strong performance, with prices continuously breaking historical highs, driven by various factors including monetary policy shifts, central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Price Movements - On September 23, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.58%, reaching an intraday high of $3,824.60, marking a historical peak [1] - Year-to-date, international spot gold prices have risen approximately 43% from around $2,625 per ounce, while domestic market prices have increased about 38% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Influence - The recent rise in gold prices is directly influenced by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, which included a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25% on September 18 [3] - Market expectations indicate a 75.4% probability of cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve in 2025, reinforcing support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Global official institutions have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, with central banks net adding 166 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2025, continuing a trend of steady accumulation [4] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of over 90 central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting long-term recognition of gold's value [4] Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The current complex global geopolitical landscape, with ongoing tensions in various regions, has heightened market uncertainty and increased investor focus on asset safety [5] - Gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset has been further activated, making it a significant option for capital allocation in uncertain times [5] Group 5: Inflation and Investment Value - The structural volatility of global inflation has highlighted gold's value as a hedge against inflation, with U.S. inflation data rebounding to 2.9% in August, the second-highest this year [6] - The uncertain economic data and policy paths have attracted more medium- to long-term capital inflows into gold, emphasizing its property preservation characteristics [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion factors include the phased achievement of trade agreements, concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations starting to materialize [2]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist, and Trump's attempt to fire Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence [2]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year [2]. - The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - Precious metals are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. There has been a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the visible inventory of silver recently [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.83% [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day; London gold at $3663.15 per ounce, up 0.53%; Shanghai gold main contract at 860 yuan per gram, up 0.53%; gold T + D at 856.27 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [3]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions increased by 4.73% from the previous week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 186.19%; Shanghai gold registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.38% [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai gold in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,314, a decrease of 3,744; the top 10 totaled 150,089, a decrease of 2,445 [4]. 3.2 Silver - **Market Influencing Factors**: The price of gold is the anchor for silver prices. There was a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in visible inventory [6]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $44.27 per ounce, down 0.11% from the previous day; London silver at $44.33 per ounce, up 1.35%; Shanghai silver main contract at 10,397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.46%; silver T + D at 10,349 yuan per kilogram, up 0.72% [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions increased by 3.99% from the previous week; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 32.90%; visible inventory decreased by 0.13% [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai silver in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,866, an increase of 11,247; the top 10 totaled 166,336, an increase of 10,752 [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are $66,593.66 billion, up 0.00% [9]. - **Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 3.02% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 97.23, down 0.10% from the previous day [9]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.90%, up 0.20 from the previous value; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.10% [11]. - **Other Data**: Geopolitical risk index is 128.06, up 1.97% from the previous week; VIX index is 16.50, down 0.84% from the previous day; CRB commodity index is 299.88, up 0.72% from the previous day [12]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at different times in the future is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate adjustments [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 0.41% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.64%. The short - term core logic includes: in terms of short - term hedging, trade agreements are being reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical uncertainties still exist in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at high levels in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver decreased slightly, and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver increased slightly [6]. Summary by Section Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) also rose. The basis and spreads, and various ratios showed different changes. The positions of Comex gold increased, while the positions of Shanghai gold main contract decreased. The inventories of LBMA and Shanghai gold remained stable, while the Comex gold inventory decreased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased slightly [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai gold futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [4]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [7]. - **Data Summary**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) showed mixed trends, and domestic silver prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) increased. The basis and spreads changed. The positions of Comex silver decreased, while the positions of Shanghai silver main contract increased. The visible inventory of silver increased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the iShare silver ETF inventory increased [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai silver futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the VIX index increased, while the geopolitical risk index decreased significantly [9][12]. - **Interest Rate Spreads and Inflation**: The US - EU and US - China interest rate spreads (10 - year bond yields) increased. The CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change. The inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [11]. - **Economic Indicators**: GDP growth showed different trends in annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate increased, and non - farm payrolls decreased. The labor participation rate decreased, and average hourly wage growth slowed down. Other economic indicators in the labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys also showed various changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The central bank gold reserves of China increased slightly, while those of the US remained stable. The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign exchange reserves increased, while the proportion of the euro decreased. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves increased globally and in China and the US [12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market has different expectations for the Fed's interest rate range in different periods from October 2025 to October 2027 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,650 per ounce, breaking the inflation-adjusted historical high from January 1980. This surge is causing pressure for consumers, particularly those preparing for weddings, to decide whether to purchase gold now or wait for a potential price drop [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The gold market is in an upward channel, with a long-term trend of de-dollarization continuing. Consumers are advised to buy at relatively low points [1]. - In the first half of the year, China's gold consumption reached 505.205 tons, with jewelry consumption dropping by 26% to 199.826 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 23.69% increase in consumption [3]. - Major financial institutions remain bullish on gold, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce and Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly focused on the practicality of gold purchases, with a preference for items that have high liquidity and lower processing costs, such as gold bars and coins, over more expensive jewelry [3]. - The timing of gold purchases is crucial; consumers are advised to avoid peak seasons like the Spring Festival and National Day, opting instead for the off-peak months of April to June for better pricing opportunities [3]. - When purchasing gold jewelry, consumers should prioritize high-purity items (99.9% purity) and avoid high-cost craftsmanship items that may lead to poor resale value [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing up 1.31% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.15%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate upwards in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, although trade agreements are being reached in batches, concerns about European and American debts and the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with employment weakening and inflation being moderate, leading to a rebound in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the yield of the US 30 - year Treasury bond rose to the highest level since mid - July, following the trends in European and British bond markets, as investors worried that governments of major economies were losing control of fiscal deficits. Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook, and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for overstepping his authority, raised concerns about the Fed's independence. In terms of the monetary attribute, Powell hinted that the Fed might need to cut interest rates but would act cautiously. He announced the Fed's new policy framework, returning to a flexible inflation target. The US manufacturing PMI has shrunk for six consecutive months, and factories said that tariffs have made the situation worse than during the Great Recession. Currently, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has soared from 40% before the July non - farm payrolls to about 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and Treasury bond yields fluctuated strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB was beneficial to domestic prices [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3599.50 per ounce, up 2.37% from the previous day and 4.54% from the previous week; London gold was at $3490.00 per ounce, up 0.43% from the previous day and 3.65% from the previous week; the main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 814.88 yuan per gram, up 1.31% from the previous day and 4.32% from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 809.97 yuan per gram, up 1.27% from the previous day and 4.16% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 443,760 lots, down 0.54% from the previous week; Shanghai gold's main contract positions were 142,330 lots, up 2.67% from the previous day and down 14.57% from the previous week; gold TD positions were 221,198 lots, up 1.73% from the previous day and 10.56% from the previous week. LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai gold inventory was 18 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 118,272 lots, an increase of 266 lots; the top 10 totaled 153,498 lots, a decrease of 146 lots; the top 20 totaled 195,167 lots, an increase of 1,757 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 15,049 lots, an increase of 356 lots; the top 10 totaled 21,936 lots, an increase of 540 lots; the top 20 totaled 26,248 lots, an increase of 964 lots [3]. 2. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $41.73 per ounce, up 2.40% from the previous day and 7.84% from the previous week; London silver was at $40.52 per ounce, down 0.14% from the previous day and up 5.47% from the previous week; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 9,820 yuan per kilogram, down 0.04% from the previous day and up 5.53% from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 9,780 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20% from the previous day and up 5.60% from the previous week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 158,630 lots, up 0.10% from the previous week; Shanghai silver's main contract positions were 4,996,200 lots, up 0.69% from the previous day and 18.68% from the previous week; silver TD positions were 3,489,224 lots, down 0.03% from the previous day and up 4.02% from the previous week. The visible inventory totaled 42,796 tons, up 0.90% from the previous week [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 119,197 lots, an increase of 868 lots; the top 10 totaled 165,732 lots, an increase of 2,404 lots; the top 20 totaled 210,707 lots, an increase of 5,979 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 48,371 lots, an increase of 1,638 lots; the top 10 totaled 77,222 lots, a decrease of 254 lots; the top 20 totaled 100,335 lots, a decrease of 1,599 lots [7]. 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $665.4234 billion, down $1.5239 billion from the previous value. M2 (year - on - year) is 4.82%, up 0.60 percentage points [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59, up 1.97% from the previous day and the previous week; the US dollar index is 98.32, up 0.63% from the previous day and 0.12% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.54, down 15.63% from the previous day [8]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts in different meetings from September 2025 to December 2026 are presented in a table, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges [12].

Market Performance - A-shares led global equity markets with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.49% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.85%[4] - The implied volatility of the 50ETF rose to 19.78%, indicating increased market uncertainty[4] - The Dow Jones reached a new high with a gain of 1.53%, while the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.58%[4] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond futures fell by 1.43%, reflecting significant adjustments in the domestic bond market[4] - The negative correlation between stocks and bonds reached a historical high, highlighting the "see-saw effect" in market dynamics[4] Commodity Trends - International commodities showed strength, with Brent crude oil up by 2.14% and COMEX gold rising by 1.02%, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation hedging[4] - Domestic commodity prices generally declined, with the South China Commodity Index down by 0.44%[4] Currency Movements - The US dollar index decreased by 0.13%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.24%[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - For bonds, focus on high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly in a low-risk environment[5] - In overseas equities, consider opportunities in interest-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar[5] - For A-shares, maintain an overweight position in technology growth sectors, particularly electronics and AI hardware[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The main reasons were the continuous decline in safe - haven demand, the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict (although there were still uncertainties), and the "dampening" of the September interest - rate cut expectation by three Fed officials before Powell's speech. The initial jobless claims in the US last week reached the largest increase in about three months, the labor market remained weak, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields were strong. The expectation of a September interest - rate cut by the Fed dropped from 85% to around 71%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year decreased from 3 to 2. It is expected that precious metals will be weak and volatile in the short term. In the medium and long term, the rising risk of economic recession may force the Fed to cut interest rates, and the precious metals' long - term upward trend remains due to the "de - dollarization" process. The Fed's Powell may cool down the interest - rate cut expectation at the global central bank annual meeting, and investors are advised to manage risks in advance [5]. - After the non - farm payrolls report, many Fed officials still believed that they were not ready to change their economic outlook before seeing more data. The September interest - rate cut was not certain. Powell at the global central bank annual meeting might suppress the current aggressive interest - rate cut expectation in the market. Technically, London gold returned to the lower edge of the triangular pattern, and there was a risk of a short - term downward break, with an expected trend of falling first and then rising [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Safe - Haven Attribute - There were still uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the risk of geopolitical conflict remained. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Russia's large - scale attacks in multiple regions of Ukraine overnight showed that Moscow was avoiding negotiations to end the war [1]. - The Trump trade war entered a new stage. White House officials said that Trump had signed an executive order, and the truce period of China - US tariffs was extended by another 90 days [1]. 2. Monetary Attribute - This week, several Fed officials "dampened" the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. The initial jobless claims in the US last week reached the largest increase in about three months, and the labor market remained weak. The Fed meeting minutes showed that only two policymakers supported an interest - rate cut at the July meeting. US retail sales in July increased strongly, and wholesale prices jumped, adding uncertainties to the Fed's interest - rate cut roadmap [2]. - After the non - farm payrolls report, there were still differences within the Fed. The expectation of a September interest - rate cut by the Fed dropped from 85% to around 71%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year decreased from 3 to 2. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance in their downward movement and were strong [2]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Although gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other products offset some of the impact. Emerging market central banks, including the People's Bank of China, promoted the central bank's gold - buying demand to remain at a high level through the "de - dollarization" strategy [2]. - The World Silver Association expected that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 would narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) [2]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds continued to be reduced; the net long positions of domestic Shanghai gold futures companies at a high level were continuously reduced, and the net long positions of Shanghai silver were slightly increased at a low level; the world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF ended their long - term downward trend and slowly increased their positions [3]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution No relevant content provided. 6. Strategy - Short - term: Weak and volatile. - Medium - term: High - level volatility. - Long - term: Step - by - step upward [5]. 7. Support and Resistance - Shanghai gold main contract: Support at 760 - 765, resistance at 780 - 785. - Shanghai silver main contract: Support at 9000 - 9030, resistance at 9400 - 9430 [5]. 8. 2024 - 2025 Fed Monetary Policy Path Review - In June 2014, the Fed kept the interest rate policy unchanged, but the updated dot - plot suggested a significant reduction in the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year, from three to one [7]. - In July 2014, the Fed continued to keep the interest rate unchanged, confirmed progress in inflation reduction, and mentioned that interest - rate cuts might be an option in September [7]. - In September 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the target range of the Fed's benchmark interest rate was expected to be further reduced by the end of the year and in 2025 and 2026 [7]. - In November 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement removed the expression about "gaining confidence in the fight against inflation" [8][9]. - In December 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the new dot - plot showed that policymakers expected only two 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025 [9]. - In January 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged for the first time since starting the interest - rate cut cycle in September 2014, and the policy statement removed the expression about "progress in inflation towards the target" [9]. - In March 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the balance - sheet reduction rhythm from April 1, and expected two interest - rate cuts this year, but the number of those who expected no interest - rate cuts increased [9]. - In May 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, and the FOMC statement said that the uncertainty of the economic outlook increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation both increased [9]. - In June 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, expected a slowdown in economic growth this year, an increase in the unemployment rate and inflation, and a slight slowdown in the interest - rate cut pace [9]. 9. Precious Metals Commonly Used Database (1) Monetary Attribute - Multiple aspects of US economic data were presented, including inflation (CPI, PCE, etc.), economic growth (GDP), employment (unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, etc.), real estate (housing market index, new home sales, etc.), consumption (retailer sales, personal consumption expenditure, etc.), industry (industrial production index, durable goods orders, etc.), trade (trade balance), economic leading indicators (PMI, consumer confidence index, etc.), and key indicators (US Treasury yields, US dollar index, etc.). Also, the Fed's monetary policy tracking data was provided [11][15][21][26][35][46][47][55][59][68]. (2) Safe - Haven Attribute - The volatility of the US stock market was presented, specifically the relationship between the S&P 500 index and the volatility index (VIX) [69][71]. (3) Commodity Attribute - The trends of the offshore RMB, CRB commodity index, and their relationships with precious metals were presented, including the relationship between the CRB commodity price index, Shanghai gold main contract closing price, and offshore RMB exchange rate, as well as the relationship between the US dollar against the offshore RMB and the China - US ten - year Treasury yield spread [72][73]. (4) Capital Flow - The net positions of CFTC managed funds and the positions of gold and silver ETFs were presented [74][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the mild increase in U.S. inflation for July has preserved the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, impacting the dollar and supporting precious metal prices [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained unchanged year-on-year at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1% [3]. - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged to 93.4%, which is expected to weaken the dollar's attractiveness and support precious metal prices [3]. Political Influence - Former President Trump has pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut rates and threatened legal action, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin advocates for a 50 basis point cut in September [3]. - There are mixed views among officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation and unemployment balance, which may create policy uncertainty [3]. Trading Strategy - Precious metals are expected to continue a volatile pattern in the short term, with COMEX gold likely to find support around $3,350 and trade near $3,400 [4]. - COMEX silver should be monitored for support at the $37 level, with potential opportunities remaining in the context of ongoing rate cut expectations [4].