以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒人养基 . 雪球21年度十大新锐用户、22年度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将 经营产生的余钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：懒人养基 来源：雪球 牛市来了 ， " 抓住一切难得机会 " 几乎成了共识 ， 仿佛只要身处其中 ， 财富便能唾手可得 。 于是 ， 上涨时舍不得卖 ， 回调时又觉得 " 此时卖出不划算 " ， 一拖再拖 。 直到某天打开账户 ， 发现盈利已蒸发大半 ， 才惊觉一轮轰轰烈烈的大牛市 ， 自己竟只是坐了一趟令人心潮澎湃的过山车 ， 徒留一声叹息 。 01 越是上涨 ， 投资者越容易陷入 " 错失恐惧 " 随着市场热度不断升温 ， 指数加速上扬 ， 个股轮番涨停 ， 投资者沉浸在一片乐观之中 。 这时 ， " 牛市要抓住一切难得机会 " 的观点极易深 入人心 ， 投资者害怕卖出后错过后续更大的 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses how to enhance investment returns during a bull market, emphasizing the importance of investment risk tolerance, profit systems, and long-term thinking [3][4]. - Investment returns are derived from three main factors: capital, annualized return rate, and investment duration [6][8]. - Among these factors, investment duration is highlighted as the most significant influence on total investment returns, surpassing both capital and annualized return rate [10][14]. Group 2 - To remain in the market for the long term, investors should adopt an entrepreneurial mindset rather than a worker's mindset [16][22]. - A long-term viable profit system is essential, which should be proven over at least one complete bull-bear cycle [23][25]. - Investors should maintain a balanced asset allocation strategy to ensure they can withstand different market conditions [32][36]. Group 3 - Timing the market should be avoided unless absolutely necessary, as it can lead to emotional decision-making [38][43]. - The article suggests that investors should only consider timing their exits in specific situations, such as when market valuations are exceptionally high or when switching to better investment options [40][42]. - Overall, the key to enhancing long-term investment returns lies in maintaining a stable mindset, a proven profit system, balanced allocation, and minimizing market timing [45].

利弗莫尔的财富过山车 1907年美国股灾 ， 是利弗莫尔传奇的起点 。 他精准预判崩盘 ， 提前布局做空 ， 股价如瀑布般下泄 ， 他狂揽300万美元 ， 从 " 穷小子 " 一 跃成为华尔街传奇 。 可辉煌 如泡沫 ， 不到两年 ， 他就输光大部分资金 。 并非行情背弃了他 ， 而是心态膨胀让他在市场中迷失 —— 赚到大 钱后 ， 他自认 " 无所不能 " ， 却不知 " 自负才是交易最大的陷阱 " ， 市场狠狠教训了这位 " 天之骄子 " 。 02 赚钱易 ， 守钱难 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： ETF海龟 来源：雪球 在交易的世界里 ， 不少人都有这样的困惑 ： 好不容易赚到的钱 ， 为何总是很快又亏回去 ？ 很多人将原因归咎于市场的复杂难测 ， 却忽略了 人性才是背后的关键变量 。 01 03 心为秤 ， 盘为镜 利弗莫尔曾言 ： " 市场让我明白 ， 赚钱的难点不在行情 ， 而在自己 。 " 这句话戳中了交易的本质 —— 真正的挑战是 " 修心 " ， 而非单纯研 究K线与行情 。 市场从不是单纯 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the current bullish sentiment in the market and the anxiety among investors regarding their equity positions [4][5] - It emphasizes that while it is normal to feel anxious in a rapidly rising market, there is no need for excessive worry as long-term performance is challenging to outperform [5][7] - The article presents data showing that from 2010 to now, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 61.38%, while actively managed equity funds have returned 102.04%, indicating that consistent outperformance is difficult [5][7] Group 2 - The article suggests that investors should gradually increase their risk appetite rather than making drastic changes to their portfolios [10][12] - It recommends optimizing bond fund holdings by transitioning from pure bond funds to those with some equity exposure, thereby increasing risk exposure incrementally [13] - The article also highlights the importance of adjusting dividend stock holdings to include funds with growth attributes, as traditional dividend strategies may lag in a bullish market [15][16] Group 3 - For broad index investments, the article advises switching from the Shanghai Index or CSI 300 to the more balanced and growth-oriented CSI A500 [19] - It suggests that investors holding growth-oriented ETFs should consider upgrading to indices that have stronger performance potential in a bull market [20] - The article emphasizes that any adjustments should be made cautiously to avoid significant risks if the market does not perform as expected [21] Group 4 - The article discusses the optimization of actively managed funds, recommending a shift from deep value funds to balanced value and then to growth-oriented funds as market conditions improve [22] - It suggests rotating between fund managers based on performance, favoring those who have shown better results in the current market environment [23] - The overall message is to maintain a calm approach to investing, making small adjustments to align with the current market sentiment while managing risk effectively [25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in A-shares, attributing it primarily to foreign capital flows rather than retail investors, highlighting the influence of U.S. interest rate changes on global capital movement [3][9]. Group 1: Retail Investors - Retail investors are not the main driving force behind the recent market surge, as their buying power is highly dispersed and lacks the ability to form a decisive impact [4][5]. - Retail investors tend to chase trends, buying during upswings but are unlikely to counteract downward trends [5][6]. Group 2: Main Players in the Market - The primary influence on the market comes from foreign capital, which is significantly affected by U.S. interest rate policies [6][9]. - When the U.S. raises interest rates, capital flows into the U.S., while a decrease leads to capital flowing out, impacting other markets, including China [7][8]. Group 3: Currency and Market Correlation - There is a notable correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the performance of the stock market, with RMB appreciation generally leading to stock market gains and depreciation leading to losses [13][15]. - The article illustrates that from April to the present, the RMB has been in an appreciation phase, which correlates with a stronger performance in A-shares [15][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While current foreign capital inflows are positive for the market, predicting future movements based on currency fluctuations remains challenging [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a calm and rational investment approach during a bull market, highlighting that not all assets will rise and that individual investment strategies should align with personal risk preferences [5][16][18]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Investors should regularly assess their portfolio structure to ensure it aligns with their true risk tolerance, especially during significant market changes [9]. - A mismatch between current market trends and an investor's portfolio can lead to underperformance, which is common in bull markets [12][13]. - Investors need to clarify their goals and strategies, avoiding emotional decision-making that can lead to confusion and poor outcomes [15][19]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Bull markets do not guarantee that all assets will appreciate; structural market conditions often dictate performance [16]. - It is crucial for investors to avoid being swayed by others' successes, as this can lead to impulsive decisions that deviate from long-term strategies [17]. - The article suggests that missing a bull market is not as detrimental as making hasty investments during market highs, which can lead to significant losses [18]. Group 3: Long-term Perspective - A slow and steady investment approach is recommended, focusing on consistent, moderate returns rather than high-risk, high-reward strategies [22]. - The accumulation of wealth over time through disciplined investment and life management is emphasized as a more effective strategy than chasing quick gains [24]. - The article concludes that ordinary investors should prioritize their life paths and resilience over mere investment success rates [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents ten golden rules for survival in the stock market, emphasizing the importance of risk management, independent thinking, and long-term investment strategies [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Avoid using leverage as it amplifies both gains and risks, leading to potential losses [3]. - Focus on understanding industry logic and long-term value rather than relying solely on intelligence or K-line charts [3][4]. - Stay away from penny stocks and companies with poor financial health, as they are likely to face significant downturns [3][4]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Independent thinking is crucial; following market trends or "hot stocks" often leads to losses [4]. - The stock market is likened to gambling, where long-term value investing is seen as a more favorable bet compared to short-term speculation [5][6]. - Recognize that even high-quality stocks can decline in value during bear markets, thus investors should buy low and hold rather than chase high prices [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Timing and Valuation - Emphasize the importance of understanding valuation, market sentiment, and the potential for price appreciation when making investment decisions [5][6]. - The article suggests that while predicting market timing is challenging, focusing on the potential for price movement (space) is more feasible than trying to predict speed or timing [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between household deposits and the total market capitalization of A-shares, suggesting that the current ratio indicates a moderate market without significant bubbles. As of the end of July, the ratio was 1.71, well below the critical threshold of 1.1 [2][5]. Group 1: Market Capitalization Projections - The article proposes that if the ratio reaches 1.1, the total market capitalization of A-shares could increase significantly, with potential growth estimates based on household deposits [5][10]. - Current total market capitalization of A-shares is approximately 100 trillion yuan, with projections suggesting it could rise to between 141.67 trillion and 163 trillion yuan depending on the growth of household deposits over the next one to two years [10][12]. - The potential increase in market capitalization is estimated to be between 40% to 60%, translating to a projected index level of 5032.8 to 5592 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [13][21]. Group 2: Household Deposits and Market Dynamics - Household deposits have been increasing at a rate of approximately 14 trillion yuan annually, which supports the potential for more funds to flow into A-shares [8][9]. - The article highlights that the increase in household deposits is a positive indicator for A-shares, as it provides the necessary liquidity for market growth [8][20]. - The analysis includes the impact of IPOs and private placements, which could add approximately 5 trillion yuan to the market capitalization annually, further supporting the growth projections [15][16]. Group 3: Dividend Considerations - The article notes that A-shares have increasingly focused on dividends, with annual cash dividends reaching around 2.5 trillion yuan, which will affect the total market capitalization [18]. - The net profit and cash dividend data from recent years indicate a stable dividend payout, which is crucial for long-term investment considerations [18][19]. - The net increase in market capitalization, after accounting for dividends, is estimated to be around 3.5 trillion yuan annually, suggesting a more conservative growth outlook [19].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of recognizing risks during market upswings rather than merely chasing opportunities [2][3] - Understanding market nature is crucial, as cycles are eternal and human behavior remains unchanged [4] - The second-level thinking principle suggests evaluating whether current market optimism is excessive and if prices reflect true value [5] Group 2 - Investment decisions should prioritize value over price, focusing on the relationship between asset quality and its intrinsic value [6][7] - The philosophy of buying undervalued assets is highlighted, advocating for purchases when prices are significantly below intrinsic value [9] - The principle of margin of safety is essential, requiring purchases at prices well below intrinsic value to cushion against errors and market fluctuations [10] Group 3 - The focus should be on avoiding catastrophic investments rather than solely seeking winning opportunities [11] - Defensive investment strategies are particularly important in bull markets, emphasizing error avoidance [12] - Setting realistic return expectations in line with current market conditions is vital, especially at market peaks [13] Group 4 - Recognizing potential losses is more critical than focusing on potential gains [14] - The risk of permanent capital loss is a significant concern, overshadowing short-term price volatility [15] - Avoiding attempts to time the market is advised, as consistent short-term predictions are nearly impossible [16] Group 5 - Mastering emotional control is essential for maintaining rationality in investment decisions [17] - Greed and fear are identified as emotional adversaries that can lead to poor investment timing [18] - The importance of resisting the fear of missing out during bull markets and the fear of further losses during bear markets is emphasized [20] Group 6 - Acknowledging one's ignorance is the first step toward wisdom in investing, highlighting the importance of understanding unknowns [24] - Creating a negative checklist of what not to invest in is as crucial as identifying potential investments [25] Group 7 - Risk-return asymmetry indicates that high risk does not guarantee high returns; only by correctly identifying and assuming unnoticed risks can investors achieve high returns [27] - Great investors prioritize risk management over profit generation, making risk control a core investment principle [28] Group 8 - The essence of value investing lies in focusing on tangible factors like assets and cash flow while seeking to buy at undervalued prices [33] - Investors should concentrate on known areas, focusing on the fundamentals of companies, industries, and securities [34] Group 9 - The practice of contrarian investing is encouraged when prices deviate significantly from value, requiring courage and patience [36] - The greatest investment opportunities often arise from widespread pessimism, while the most significant risks stem from collective optimism [38] Group 10 - Continuous learning and integrating various investment concepts are vital for successful investing [40] - Establishing a consistent investment philosophy and maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial for recognizing true value over time [42]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of flexible asset allocation over specialization in a single investment area, particularly in the context of the A-share market, where market conditions can change rapidly [5][9][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Evolution - The investment strategy has evolved from focusing solely on A-share funds to diversifying into US ETFs and global markets, indicating a shift towards a more comprehensive asset allocation approach [4][5]. - The current asset allocation structure is described as "all-weather," combining stocks, bonds, and commodities to enhance returns while minimizing volatility and risk [5][10]. Group 2: Path Dependency and Its Risks - Path dependency is identified as a detrimental mindset that can hinder investors' ability to achieve stable returns, with examples from real estate and A-shares illustrating the consequences of this approach [6][7][11]. - The article argues that many investors mistakenly believe that specialization will lead to success, while in reality, a broader framework is necessary to avoid costly mistakes [9][10]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Framework - A scientific asset allocation framework is essential for improving error tolerance, as most investors cannot specialize in a single asset class [10][12]. - The framework should include specific allocations for stocks, bonds, and commodities, and investors should adhere to these rules unless significant issues arise [10][15]. Group 4: Practical Implementation - The article suggests using a three-part method for asset allocation, starting with a risk preference test to determine the appropriate balance between aggressive and conservative investments [13][15]. - Investors are encouraged to take a gradual approach to investing, allowing time to build knowledge and avoid overcommitting based on a false sense of expertise [14][15].