美国非农数据是全球金融市场中的一个重要经济指标，通常于每个月的首周星期五公布，对市场的影响 深远，尤其是对现货黄金市场来说，非农数据的发布常常引发黄金价格的剧烈波动。因此，了解非农数 据及其与黄金价格之间的关联性，是投资者应对非农行情的必修课。本文中，领峰环球将详细介绍非农 数据的知识点，分析其与黄金价格的关系，并为投资者提供捕捉非农行情的实用建议。 一、非农数据是什么？ 非农数据是美国劳工部每月发布的一项重要经济报告，主要反映了美国境内非农业行业的新增就业人 数。具体来说，它包含了全美就业市场的综合表现，排除了政府部门、农业和自营职业的影响。因此， 非农数据对于衡量美国经济健康状况具有重要的参考价值。 非农数据的核心内容包括： 1.新增就业人数：指的是一个月内新增的非农业就业岗位数量。 理解非农数据与黄金价格之间的关系后，投资者可以通过以下几种方式把握非农期间的黄金交易机会。 2.失业率：反映劳动力市场中失业人口的比例。 3.平均小时工资：衡量劳动力市场中工资变化的趋势。 这些数据不仅反映了美国经济的就业情况，还能够揭示出潜在的经济增长动能，对金融市场具有重大影 响。投资者登录领峰环球官网、领峰环球官方AP ...

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - The overall gold price in domestic brand stores remains stable, with Chow Sang Sang gold price dropping by 7 yuan per gram, no longer being the highest-priced store [1] - Multiple gold stores are quoting 1005 yuan per gram, while Shanghai China Gold maintains the lowest price at 969 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 36 yuan per gram [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands are listed, with notable prices including Liufu at 1005 yuan per gram and Lao Feng Xiang at 1001 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Platinum and Recycling Prices - Platinum prices continue to decline, with Liufu's platinum jewelry priced at 559 yuan per gram, down by 2 yuan per gram [1] - The gold recycling price has slightly decreased by 2.4 yuan per gram, with various brand recycling prices showing significant differences [2] - The current gold recycling prices range from 757.70 yuan per gram to 770.70 yuan per gram across different brands [2] Group 3: International Gold Market - Last Friday, spot gold briefly surged but later retreated, closing at 3334.99 USD per ounce, with a gain of 0.27% [4] - As of the latest report, spot gold is trading at 3310.35 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.74% [4] - The increase in gold prices last week was driven by concerns over U.S. tariffs and the passage of Trump's large infrastructure plan, but was limited by unexpectedly strong U.S. non-farm data [4]

Core Insights - The non-farm payroll data was unexpectedly strong, leading to fluctuations in the gold market [1] - There is ongoing speculation about when the gold market will break out of its current volatility [1] - Day traders are advised to consider their strategies for the evening session [1]

Global Macro - The strong non-farm payroll data for June shows an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 110,000, and the previous value was revised up from 139,000 to 144,000 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2% [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, slightly below the expected 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2% [1] - The strong employment data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, providing more policy space amid ongoing pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 26.7% to 4.3% and the September cut probability slightly decreasing from 69.1% to 62.4% [1] Employment Analysis - The ADP report earlier indicated a decline of 33,000 jobs, highlighting a key difference as it only accounts for private sector employment, excluding government jobs [2] - Government sector added 73,000 jobs, contributing half of the non-farm employment increase, primarily from state and local governments, while federal employment decreased by 7,000 [2] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly to 74,000, down from 137,000 in May, with most growth in lower-skilled sectors such as education and healthcare [2][3] - The labor force participation rate has declined for three consecutive months, contributing to the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, which fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - The decrease in labor supply due to reduced immigration and government layoffs has led to a tighter labor market, particularly affecting low-skilled labor supply [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The unexpected strong non-farm data significantly reduces the urgency for rate cuts in the short term, with July lacking sufficient justification for a cut [4] - Future rate cuts may depend on inflation data, with the next potential window for a cut possibly in the fourth quarter as tariff-related inflation effects dissipate [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a patient approach in assessing data changes, avoiding aggressive policy adjustments in a high uncertainty environment [4]

今日周五（7月4日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于774.02元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报775.20元/ 克，下跌0.46最高触及776.92元/克，最低下探773.50元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 受非农数据利空影响，黄金短期承压但技术面仍守关键支撑，当前维持3250-3400美元区间震荡。从波 浪结构观察，当前或处于Y浪调整末期，需重点关注多空分水岭突破情况。日线级别维持上升楔形整 理，MACD处于零轴附近待方向抉择，周线3247美元为关键多空分界，失守则确认中期调整趋势，上方 3400美元为历史压力转化区，需配合基本面改善方可突破。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 核心支撑位：短期支撑：3310-3300美元（7月4日非农数据低点）；中期关键支撑：3247美元（6月30日 阶段性低点，Y浪调整理论目标位） 美国总统特朗普表示，他将于周五开始致函贸易伙伴，设定单边关税税率，各国必须从8月1日开始支付 关税税率。大约"10到12封"信函将于星期五发出，"未来几天"还会有其他信件函出。 关键阻力位：短期压力：3350-3360美元（非农前密集成交区上沿）；中期强阻力：3400 ...

摘要周五（7月4日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，最新黄金交投于3330美元关口附近，非农数据的意 外向好，美联储7月降息9月降息概率也下降，美元和美债收益率齐涨，美元走强对黄金市场形成了显著 压力，周四黄金日线探高回落，日线收盘小阴K线。 强劲的就业数据直接推高了美元和美债收益率。美元指数周四上涨0.34%，报97.12，而两年期美债收益 率攀升9.7个基点至3.789%，十年期美债收益率也上升至4.346%。美元走强使得黄金对海外买家的吸引 力下降，因为以美元计价的黄金变得更加昂贵。 市场对美联储7月降息的预期几乎归零，9月降息25个基点的概率也从92.5%降至67%。这一转变直接导 致了黄金价格的回落，投资者对黄金的避险需求暂时被压制。 【技术面分析】 黄金日线探高回落，日线收盘小阴K线，本周的节奏整体保持在高位拉锯震荡，并没有持续性的单边， 美元短期强弱不定，也限制了黄金的波动空间，反复探高回落，破高无力，回调又缺少下破力度，关键 的区间未打破，今日周线收官，从周线来看，黄金行情还是震荡收尾的节奏，月线仍在试探摸高上影 线。 日线图上，黄金从一个月低点触底反弹，刷新一周新高后涨势遇阻，保持震荡走势运行。 ...

当地时间7月3日，欧美股市全线上涨。受美国独立纪念日假期影响，美股提前收盘，美股三大指数均上 涨， 纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均创历史新高 。英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数 均小幅上涨。 美股大型科技股涨跌不一， 英伟达创历史新高 。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.40%，虎虎科技国际涨 逾25%，斗鱼、万国数据涨逾10%。 当地时间7月3日，美国劳工部统计局公布的数据显示，美国6月季调后非农就业增14.7万人，预期增11.0 万人，前值从增13.9万人修正为增14.4万人。 美国非农数据发布后，纽约现货黄金价格跌近1%，国际原油价格小幅下跌。 纳斯达克指数、标普500指数创历史新高 当地时间7月3日，美股三大指数高开高走，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨0.77%、纳斯达克指数上涨 1.02%、标普500指数上涨0.83%，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均创历史新高。 | L | w 全球 | | | --- | --- | --- | | A股 REITs 港股 | 美股 | 商品 外 三 | | 美洲市场 它 | | | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 44828.53 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an addition of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. However, the private sector job growth was only 74,000, marking the smallest increase since October 2024 [3][5] - The rise in the U.S. dollar and bond yields has diminished market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby reducing the attractiveness of gold [4] - The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains at 4.25%-4.5%. The strong non-farm data and potential inflationary pressures from the Trump administration's new policies increase the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a cautious stance [5][6] - The Trump administration's large tax cuts and spending bill, projected to add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, may exacerbate inflationary pressures, although the current strong dollar and rising bond yields are temporarily overshadowing this [6] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the gold market experienced a bullish trend at the beginning of the week, followed by a bearish reversal on Thursday, resulting in a doji candle that suggests indecision in the market [8] - Key support levels to watch include 3319, which aligns with the 60-day moving average, and 3311, the previous low. Resistance levels are identified at 3345 and 3350, corresponding to the 30-day and 20-day moving averages [9] - On the four-hour chart, after a drop to 3247, a strong upward movement was observed, but the price faced resistance at 3365/3366, entering an adjustment phase. Key support levels are at 3307/3306 and 3293/3292, while resistance levels are at 3345, 3354, and 3365/3366 [11]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll data in the U.S. showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 106,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - The strong employment data has diminished the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July, with the probability dropping from 25% to 4% [3][4] - Market reactions included a decline in U.S. Treasury prices, with the 2-year and 5-year yields rising nearly 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield jumping to 4.34% [3] Group 2 - The report indicated that 73,000 of the new jobs were in state and local government, primarily in the education sector, while federal government jobs decreased by 7,000, suggesting that private sector growth was not as strong as anticipated [3] - Despite the strong employment figures, uncertainties remain regarding trade negotiations, and there are concerns about potential price pressures indicated by the services PMI [4] - The increase in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar suggest that dollar-denominated assets may become more attractive, while gold and other safe-haven assets could face pressure [4]

相关链接 非农数据今夜来袭！黄金区间震荡是否能形成突破？日内关键位如何锚定？TTPS交易学长正在直播， 立即观看！ 黄金行情讲解中 ...