文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 事 项 8月份，CPI同比下降0.4%，预期降0.2%，前值0%；核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，前值上涨0.8%。PPI同比下降 2.9%，预期下降2.9%，前值下降3.6%。 报 告 摘 要 8月物价数据点评：促消费和反内卷影响下，部分价格呈现积极变化 1、整体读数来看，PPI同比降幅明显收窄 ，我们在《 PPI同比或开启第二轮回升周期 》中提出，PPI同比 大概率将从8月份开启第二轮回升周期，目前已初步印证。 CPI同比回落幅度较大，低于市场预期 ，主要 受：1）去年高温多雨天气带来的食品价格高基数；2）供给偏多影响下，本月食品价格涨幅弱于季节性； 3）油价下跌。CPI基本符合我们预期《 外需依然偏强——8月经济数据前瞻 》。 值得注意的是，在促消费 带来的耐用品价格改善影响下，我们估算的核心商品同比从年初以来的0%回升至1.5%，创2021年以来的 新高 （图4）。 光伏行业价格对PPI的影响有多大？ 自7月初以来，在反内卷政策的影响下，光伏行业价格明显反弹，光伏行业综 ...

Meanwhile, getting a news alert out of Washington today. Let's get to Megan Cassella. Hey, Megan.Carl, good morning. This is the Labor Department's Office of Inspector General is now informing the BLS that is initiating a review of the challenges that the BLS faces in collecting some of its most closely watched data. So, in a letter written uh to the acting commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the inspector general says they're focusing on two things here.on the challenges and related mitigating ...

报告导读： 反内卷政策效果在 PPI 中初步显现，大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游行业的价 格修复，传导效果较为明显。猪周期拖累 CPI 再次转负，但服务价格韧性，消费价格仍处 于稳步回升的通道。 8 月 CPI 同比增速 -0.4% ，环比 0.0% ； PPI 同比增速 -2.9% ，环比回升至 0.0% 。 8 月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪周期影响下，食品价格对 CPI 形成 主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心 CPI 同比大幅回升。反内卷政策效果在 8 月 PPI 数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌 回稳的迹象，同时大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI ：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 PPI ：反内卷政策效果初步显现 反内卷政策效果将持续释放。 与 2015 年供给侧改革不同，本轮反内卷政策行动聚焦中下游行业"羊群投资"和盲目扩张造成的产能过剩，政策更加注重指引 企业通过规范竞争淘汰产能，并强化监督地方政府的投资推广行为，而非简单通过行政干预快速达到去产能的目的。这使得本轮价格回升的动能或稍显迟缓， 但基础却更加牢固。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、 ...

Kevin Hanks is with me, co-host of Fast Market, live at the CBOE and of course inflation is front and center and we begin with the PPI takeaways. Good morning to you Kevin. Good morning Nicole.Big positive numbers in terms of the fight against inflation. Big drops from a month ago in terms of the numbers we got and the revisions. Here they come.Nicole headline month overmonth PPI down a tenth of a percent. Remember last month it was up.9%. That got revised to only up.7.The consensus were for up 3% comes in ...

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: How to View Price Signals in the Bond Market Correction? - Commentary on August Price Data [1] - Report Type: Commentary Report [6] - Chief Analyst: Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Main Viewpoints Data Observation: Characteristics of August Inflation Data - CPI: In August, the CPI year-on-year was -0.4%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month, falling back into the negative range and lower than the market expectation (-0.2%). The CPI month-on-month was 0%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month. The food item dragged down the CPI significantly, while the core CPI continued to rise, significantly pulled by the gold price [2]. - PPI: The PPI year-on-year was -2.9%, with the decline narrowing compared to July but still lower than the market expectation (-2.88%). The PPI month-on-month was 0%, ending the five - month negative trend. The upstream price regulation continued to show its influence, but the price transmission from the production end to the demand end was still not smooth [2][3][4]. In - depth Perspective: Implications of August Price Data - From the perspective of residents' income, the year - on - year decline of the rent level has remained at -0.1% for six consecutive months since March, indicating that the income improvement trend may have stagnated [5]. - In terms of core indicators, the pork price in August dropped year - on - year to -16.1% and month - on - month to -0.5%. The high inventory of breeding sows led to an oversupply of pork, and the decline in pork price also reflected the contraction of demand, which may continue to drag down the CPI [5][7]. - High - frequency data showed that the prices of various commodities declined, and the upward force on the PPI might weaken [7]. Future Outlook: Trends Seen from August Inflation Data - CPI: This month, the CPI declined more than expected, and the support for the core CPI was still weak. The decline in pork price and international oil price may continue to drag down the CPI. Attention should be paid to the boosting effect of policies on the demand side [8]. - PPI: The PPI trend was still dominated by supply - side price regulation, but the upward momentum weakened. Whether the PPI can maintain the current level in the next month depends on the demand - side's ability to absorb [9]. - Bond Market: The CPI and PPI year - on - year were still in the negative range, and the bond market's continuous correction did not match the fundamentals. In the future, the market may return to the fundamentals, and there are still funds waiting to enter the bond market [9][10][12]

宏 观 研 究 物价数据 2025 年 09 月 10 日 为何大宗涨价拉不起 PPI？ ——通胀数据点评（25.08） 事件：9 月 10 日，国家统计局公布 8 月通胀数据，CPI 同比-0.4%、前值 0%、预期-0.2%、 环比 0%；PPI 同比-2.9%、前值-3.6%、预期-2.9%、环比 0%。 核心服务 CPI 同比在暑期出行、医疗服务改革等支撑下延续上涨，而房租 CPI 因青年就业 问题持续弱于季节性。8 月，服务 CPI 同比较前月小幅上行 0.1pct 至 0.6%。结构上，核 心服务 CPI 环比 0%、符合季节性（0%），一方面受暑期出行支撑；统计在食品中的在外 餐饮 CPI 同比上行 0.8pct 至 1.9%。另外医疗服务改革持续拉动医疗服务价格上涨，同比 +0.5pct 至 1.6%。而房租 CPI 受青年失业率较高的拖累，8 月环比 0%、不及季节性。 ⚫ 核心观点：上游涨价对 PPI 环比贡献转正，但中下游产能利用率偏低对 PPI 拖累仍较大。 统计因素的扰动消退后，8 月 PPI 边际改善，主要表现为大宗商品价格对 PPI 环比拉动明 显回升。PPI 为每月 5 日、2 ...

投资要点： [Table_Summary] 8 月 CPI 同比增速-0.4%，环比 0.0%；PPI 同比增速-2.9%，环比回 升至 0.0%。8 月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪周期影响下，食品价格对 CPI 形成主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心 CPI 同比大幅 回升。反内卷政策效果在 8 月 PPI 数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格 动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌回稳的迹象，同时大宗商品涨价也 带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 PPI：反内卷政策效果初步显现 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.10 | | 021-38038433 | | --- | --- | | | hanchaohui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523110001 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghu ...

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and a continuous decline in food prices [1][10] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) ended an eight-month downward trend, remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to July [4][5] Group 2: Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [3][11] - Industrial prices showed positive changes, with certain sectors like coal processing and black metal smelting experiencing a narrowing of year-on-year price declines, contributing to the overall stabilization of PPI [7][8] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improvements in the supply-demand relationship, positively affecting industrial product prices and reducing disorderly competition in various sectors [3][9] - The implementation of more proactive macro policies is expected to support a gradual recovery in prices, with forecasts indicating a potential narrowing of PPI year-on-year declines in the coming months [8][12]

事件： 9月10日，国家统计局公布8月通胀数据，CPI同比-0.4%、前值0%、预期-0.2%、环比0%；PPI同 比-2.9%、前值-3.6%、预期-2.9%、环比0%。 核心观点：上游涨价对PPI环比贡献转正，但中下游产能利用率偏低对PPI拖累仍较大。 统计因素的扰动消退后，8月PPI边际改善，主要表现为大宗商品价格对PPI环比拉动明显回升。 PPI为每 月5日、20日调查单价的简单平均值，而反内卷带动的涨价集中于7月下旬，因此统计上涨价现象在8月 PPI集中体现。数据上8月煤、钢价格延续回升，而煤炭采选（2.8%）黑色采选（2.1%）、黑色压延 （1.9%）环比转正。而国际油价下行拖累国内油价、铜价对本月PPI贡献也为负， 测算大宗商品价格拉 动PPI环比0.3%。 但整体PPI环比为0%，主因中下游产能利用率偏低导致中下游价格无法充分反映上游涨价传导，测算该 因素拖累PPI环比-0.3%。 与2016年上游涨价向下游传导不同的是，本轮供给过剩更多在中下游，导致上 游涨价向下游传导受阻。目前下游主动降价现象突出，如石化链下游PPI跌幅大于上游价格理论传导幅 度；机械设备、消费下游亦类似， 测算8月中下游 ...

Core CPI and Consumer Demand - In August, China's CPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in its year-on-year increase [1] - The continuous improvement in core CPI indicates a moderate recovery in consumer demand, driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [1][5] - Prices of durable goods such as household appliances, vehicles, and communication tools showed a month-on-month increase above historical averages, reflecting the positive impact of consumption policies [1] Industrial Product Prices - In August, the year-on-year price of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, increased by 1.5%, with a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month [2] - Jewelry prices, including gold and platinum, rose significantly, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the CPI increase [2] - Service prices also saw a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with transportation and tourism costs rising by 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively [2] Food Prices and CPI Impact - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month but decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in pork, eggs, and fresh fruit prices [3] - The year-on-year decline in food prices had a greater negative impact on CPI than the overall CPI decline, with a downwards influence of approximately 0.51 percentage points [3] - The weakening of food prices is attributed to high comparison bases from the previous year and lower seasonal price increases this month [2][3] PPI Trends - The PPI ended an eight-month decline, remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [3][4] - Improvements in PPI are linked to effective supply-demand adjustments and policy impacts, particularly in key industries such as coal, metals, and new energy vehicles [4] - Emerging industries and high-tech sectors are experiencing rapid growth, contributing positively to PPI data [5] Future Outlook - The overall price trend in August indicates a recovery, with expectations for a moderate rebound in prices as domestic demand policies take effect [5][6] - The CPI structure may reflect a decline in food and energy prices while core CPI continues to rise, suggesting a potential recovery phase for PPI [5][6]