Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to reach a new high, and silver is aiming for 100. Copper prices are likely to be strong due to the decline of the US dollar. Zinc and tin are expected to trade in a high - level range. Lead prices are supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Aluminum is expected to perform strongly, with an increase in alumina maintenance. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and palladium is expected to rise slowly. The situation of nickel in Indonesia remains uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Stainless steel prices are supported by the rise of ferronickel due to concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, Comex gold 2602 rose 2.11% to 4938.40, while Shanghai gold 2602 fell 0.49% to 1083.56. For silver, Comex silver 2602 rose 3.51% to 96.215, and Shanghai silver 2602 rose 0.82% to 23370. Gold ETF holdings increased by 2 to 1079.66. Shanghai gold inventory increased by 2019 to 102009 kg, and Comex gold inventory (previous day) increased by 6979 to 36142880 troy ounces. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 11727 to 589052 kg, and Comex silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 4162840 to 422313658 troy ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump downplayed the risk of dollar depreciation, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate broke through 1.20. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to the lowest level since May 2014. The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East, causing oil prices to rise 3% and spot gold to rise over 2%. The US government shutdown is approaching [4][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [10]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai copper's main contract closed at 102600, up 0.71%, and the night - session price dropped 1.01% to 101560. London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13024, down 1.21%. Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 406 to 144908, and London copper inventory increased by 1825 to 172350 [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating TC/RC for 2026. A Chilean copper mine was fined, and a copper - gold mine in northern Chile stopped production. Road blockades at some mines in Chile were lifted [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [13]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai zinc's main contract closed at 24950, up 0.91%. London zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3351, up 2.51%. Shanghai zinc inventory decreased by 624 to 28312 tons, and London zinc inventory decreased by 775 to 110550 tons [14]. - **News**: The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East. The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in January, and there is uncertainty about future rate cuts [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai lead's main contract closed at 17000, down 0.41%. London lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2036, up 0.05%. LME lead inventory decreased by 2425 to 211175 tons [17]. - **News**: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai tin's main contract closed at 451160, up 6.07%, and the night - session price dropped 3.26% to 436450. London tin 3M electronic disk closed at 54865, up 0.68%. Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71 to 8553 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since 2014. The Japanese finance minister said that they will coordinate with the US to take appropriate actions on exchange - rate fluctuations if necessary [21][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 24305, up 90. LME aluminum 3M closed at 3213, up 17. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 79.60 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The average domestic alumina price was 2649, down 4 [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: UBS said that rising metal and memory prices will erode the profits of electric vehicle enterprises. The US government shutdown is approaching [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 1, alumina has a trend intensity of 0, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 1 [26]. Platinum and Palladium - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump said he is not worried about dollar depreciation. The "Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts, and the path of resuming rate cuts is unclear. Trump said the US has sent a large naval fleet towards Iran. The Hungarian central bank governor said Hungary may consider increasing the proportion of gold in central bank reserves [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai nickel's main contract closed at 146110, up 730. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14540, down 105 [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses. The Chinese government has implemented export license management for some steel products. The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production target and benchmark price formula. Some mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal land occupation [33][34][36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [38].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Paper Industry - The current paper prices, particularly cultural paper, have reached historical lows, while white card paper and box board paper have shown some recovery since the second half of 2025, although they remain in a bottom range. Demand has been under pressure in the past [1][2] - The paper industry is expected to experience a cyclical turning point in 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the Renminbi. Pulp prices are anticipated to enter an upward channel, supported by a marginal contraction in supply growth and a mild recovery in demand [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - The paper sector currently possesses both safety margins and elastic space, suggesting that investors should actively consider investment opportunities in a cyclical context [2] - For the pulp and paper segment, the increase in overseas commodity pulp supply is limited in 2026, with only the APP OKI Phase II expansion and some permanent closures or transitions of needle and broadleaf pulp mills. A global demand recovery during the interest rate cut cycle may lead to a balanced supply-demand situation, resulting in a moderate increase in pulp prices [2] - Import pulp prices have seen slight increases, with Arauco's needle pulp rising by $10 per ton and broadleaf pulp by $20 per ton in January. A mid-term contraction in global wood chip supply may support a rise in pulp price levels [2] - Cost factors are likely to support an upward trend in paper prices, with major cultural paper manufacturers announcing price increases of 200 yuan per ton starting in January, and leading white card manufacturers planning similar increases between late February and early March. This may accelerate pre-holiday shipping and, combined with periodic maintenance shutdowns, could positively influence post-holiday paper price trends [2] - The supply-demand landscape indicates a significant slowdown in new capacity for white paper from 2026 to 2027, with the capacity investment cycle approaching a turning point. This, along with the consumption of previously invested capacity and rising cost levels, may lead to a phase of profitability improvement for paper manufacturers, particularly for those with stronger cost control and self-sufficient pulp capabilities [2] Additional Important Insights - The increase in paper prices in the second half of 2025 was primarily driven by rising waste paper costs, while the industry demand remains in a weak recovery state. Optimizing underlying costs and product structures is crucial for improving profitability among leading companies [3] - The expansion of leading box board manufacturers is nearing completion, with only Sun Paper's Nanning facility expected to release new capacity in 2026. Demand is projected to continue growing moderately, with a CAGR of over 5% from 2015 to 2024. The mid-term supply-demand gap is expected to narrow, leading to potential upward fluctuations in paper prices and profitability [3] Recommended Stocks in the Paper Industry - **Sun Paper**: Leading value growth - **Nine Dragons Paper**: Improvement in integrated pulp and paper profitability - **Bohui Paper**: Anticipation of asset integration by major shareholders - **Chenming Paper**: Release of recovery and price increase elasticity - **Huawang Technology**: Demand improvement and high dividends - **Xianhe Co., Ltd.**: Deepening of forest-pulp-paper layout [3]

记者丨李益文 黎雨桐 编辑丨金珊 编辑丨金珊 | W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 113.125 | | 昨结 | 111.908 | 总量 | | 0 | | +1.217 | +1.09% 开盘 | | 111.862 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 114.381 | 持 仓 | 0 | ット 물 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 110.606 | 报 1 色 | 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | 关时 | モ日 | 日K | 周K | 月K | 电子 | (0) | | 暨加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 114.381 | | | | | 2.21% 卖一 113.183 | | | | | | | | 买一 113.125 | | | | | | | | 9:17 113.115 | 0 | | | | | | | 9:17 113.132 | 0 | | 111 08 | | | | 0.00% | 9 ...

昨夜今晨，贵金属市场上演"过山车"行情。北京时间1月28日，现货黄金、白银开盘下挫，其中伦敦金现相继跌破5180美 元/盎司、5170美元/盎司、5160美元/盎司关口；伦敦银现则向下逼近110美元/盎司。而就在前一交易日，伦敦金现刚刚升 破5190美元/盎司，创历史新高，伦敦银现则是单日大涨逾7%。 昨夜今晨，贵金属市场上演"过山车"行情。北京时间1月28日，现货黄金、白银开盘下挫，其中伦敦金现相继跌破5180美 元/盎司、5170美元/盎司、5160美元/盎司关口；伦敦银现则向下逼近110美元/盎司。而就在前一交易日，伦敦金现刚刚升 破5190美元/盎司，创历史新高，伦敦银现则是单日大涨逾7%。 | | 伦敦金现 < W | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 昨结 5181.748 5172.147 | 总量 | | 0 | | | -0.19% 开盘 5179.233 -9.601 | 现手 | | 0 | | | 色 最高价 5185.010 持 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | | 最低价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of Rick Riedel, BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer, potentially succeeding Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair is increasing, leading traders in futures and options markets to bet on a shift towards a dovish monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Since last Friday, Riedel has surged to become the top candidate for the next Fed Chair in betting markets, prompting significant inflows into interest rate futures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate [1]. - The recent data shows a growing interest in new trades, particularly in the federal funds futures and SOFR futures, with record volumes in the July-August one-month federal funds futures spread and the June-December six-month SOFR spread [1]. Group 2: Riedel's Position and Views - Riedel's lack of prior experience at the Federal Reserve is seen as an advantage, allowing him to approach decisions with a market-centric perspective [2]. - He has advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut compared to the Fed's preferred 25 basis points and has expressed opposition to the Fed's forward guidance through the "dot plot" [2]. - Riedel suggested that the Fed's benchmark rate should be lowered from the current range of 3.5%-3.75% to 3%, indicating that more rate cuts than previously anticipated may occur this year [2]. Group 3: Economic Predictions - Economists, including Krishna Guha from Evercore ISI, predict that Riedel will adopt a dovish stance and may push for three rate cuts this year based on his insights into productivity, inflation dynamics, and labor market pressures [3]. - In the interest rate swap market, expectations for rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 remain slightly below 50 basis points, while the SOFR options market has seen a surge in positions benefiting from multiple rate cuts, with extreme targets suggesting a drop in the federal funds rate to 1.5% by year-end [3]. Group 4: Candidate Comparisons - Investors perceive Riedel as more dovish compared to the previous frontrunner, former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, whose probability of becoming Fed Chair is currently at 28% [4]. - Following a positive meeting with President Trump, Riedel's chances of being nominated for the Fed Chair position have risen to approximately 47% [4]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Jefferies' European Chief Strategist, Mohit Kumar, noted that Riedel may be slightly more dovish than other candidates, although he is unlikely to fully adopt Trump's views, potentially bringing credibility to the Fed Chair position and alleviating some market concerns [6].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump is expected to focus on significant interest rate cuts, but the new decision-making committee may resist such actions due to ongoing inflation concerns [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve's decision-making committee will see a rotation of four regional Fed presidents this year, including Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Harmack, who have expressed concerns about inflation remaining above the 2% target for five consecutive years [1]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in its upcoming decision, with predictions indicating only one rate cut by 2026 [1]. Group 2: Hawkish vs. Dovish Perspectives - "Hawkish" officials, like Harmack, prioritize strong measures against inflation and are less likely to support rate cuts, especially given the potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [2]. - Logan, also viewed as "hawkish," indicated she would have voted against the Fed's decision to cut rates in December, advocating for a stable rate to better assess the economic impact of previous cuts [3]. - "Dovish" officials, such as Paulson, show more openness to rate cuts, suggesting that inflation may approach the Fed's target by the end of the year, while still acknowledging the need for caution [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Context and Challenges - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve faces challenges from persistent inflation risks and potential spikes in unemployment, as highlighted by Kashkari's neutral stance [6]. - Trump's economic agenda complicates the balance between stabilizing prices and promoting full employment, making it difficult to justify multiple rate cuts this year [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts during its upcoming meeting on January 29, 2025, amid a resilient U.S. economy and ongoing inflation pressures [2][3]. Economic Context - The U.S. economy showed resilience with a revised GDP growth rate of 4.4% for Q3 2025, slightly above the initial estimate of 4.3% and the previous quarter's 3.8% [3]. - The job market's growth has slowed but stabilized, reducing the urgency for the Fed to cut rates to support economic recovery [3]. - Inflation remains moderate, with the overall PCE price index rising 2.8% year-on-year in November 2025, aligning with market expectations [3]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed is likely to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, focusing on assessing the effects of previous rate cuts and avoiding excessive easing that could trigger inflation [3][4]. - The key focus for investors will be the Fed's forward guidance regarding inflation and employment outlook, as well as its assessment of current reserve levels [4]. Political Dynamics - External political pressures on the Fed are increasing, with ongoing legal issues involving Fed officials and speculation about the next Fed chair [5][6]. - The potential nomination of Rick Riedel as the next Fed chair has gained traction, with a 50% probability of selection, reflecting alignment with the White House's reform agenda [5][6]. - Riedel's proposals for monetary policy, including a call to lower the benchmark interest rate to around 3%, suggest a more dovish stance that could influence future Fed decisions [6]. Market Implications - Any subtle hints regarding the timing or thresholds for rate cuts during the upcoming meeting could lead to market re-evaluations [4]. - The Fed's policy direction will depend on economic data trends in inflation and employment throughout the year [7].

特朗普最新发声，事关降息。 周二（1月27日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.83%，标普500指数涨0.41%，纳指涨0.91%。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.48%，虎牙涨超19%，金山云涨超8%。 黄金、白银盘中震荡加剧，特别是白银，截至发稿，现货白银再度大幅直线拉升，截至发稿涨逾 0.7%，此前一度跌约1%，现货黄金跌超0.2%。 责编：彭勃 | ( W | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 112.559 | 昨结 | 111.908 | | 总量 | | | 0 | | +0.651 | +0.58% 开盘 | 111.862 | | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 112.848 博 仓 | 0 | dr | 물 | | | 0 | | 最低价 | 搜 合 110.606 | 0 | 内 | 월 | | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 日K | 周K | 月K | | | 重义 | | | 證加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates that despite President Trump's pressure for significant interest rate cuts, respondents expect the Federal Reserve to only lower rates twice in the next two years, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Respondents anticipate two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, leading to a target federal funds rate of 3% to 3.25% until 2027 [1]. - The survey reflects a consensus that the next Federal Reserve chair will not fully comply with Trump's wishes for aggressive rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Economic Growth Outlook - The survey projects U.S. GDP growth at 2.4% for this year and 2.2% for next year, both above the Fed's potential growth estimate [3]. - Unemployment is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% by year-end but is projected to decline next year [3]. Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Price Index - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to reach 2.7% by year-end and drop to 2.5% by 2027, indicating that inflation is nearing the Fed's target [4]. - The anticipated inflation increase due to tariffs is about 0.3 percentage points this year [5]. Group 4: Tariff Impact and Economic Sentiment - 58% of respondents believe that most tariff impacts have already been absorbed by the economy, although tariffs are still expected to hinder economic growth and increase inflation [5]. - The probability of a U.S. recession in the next year has decreased from 30% to 23%, reflecting improved economic sentiment [4]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - There is a divergence between survey respondents and prediction markets regarding the next Federal Reserve chair, with 50% believing Trump will choose former Fed governor Kevin Walsh [6]. - Regardless of the new chair's stance, it is believed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain checks and balances [6].

美联储官员们将在今年前几个月密切关注通胀数据，留意企业在新年重新定价时是否出现异常幅度的涨 价。一个关键问题是：零售商是否已消化完在更高关税生效前购入的库存，并开始将更高成本转嫁给消 费者。如果年度调价幅度温和，可能会消除降息的一大障碍。 Timiraos表示，美联储预计将在周三的政策声明中仅作小幅调整，并将基准利率维持在3.5%–3.75%区 间。如果美联储官员们继续保留有关"进一步调整利率"的措辞，这将表明他们尚未准备好释放出长期暂 停的信号。 Timiraos指出，更棘手的问题在于：需要出现什么情况，美联储才会再次启动降息？Timiraos认为，答 案取决于哪一种风险先行显现：是就业市场出现明显恶化，还是通胀率重新、且令人信服地朝2%的目 标水平回落。 自美联储官员们去年12月上次会议以来，这两种情况都尚未发生。就业增长明显放缓，但失业率已趋于 稳定。通胀率仍徘徊在2.8%左右，高于美联储2%的目标；不过，一些官员认为，若剔除关税影响，潜 在通胀趋势其实已更接近目标水平。 因此，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）目前处于观望状态，即便白宫正对美联储施加前所未有的政治压 力。大多数美联储官员仍认为今年晚些时候 ...