当地时间16日，德国财政部长克林贝尔在柏林郊外会见了到访的法国经济与财政部长隆巴尔。在会见后 的联合记者会上，克林贝尔表示美国特朗普政府的关税政策只能导致两败俱伤，美国不应继续采取挑衅 或威胁的行动，而应与欧盟进行认真谈判，尽快结束关税争端。德国宏观经济政策研究所16日发布报告 说，美方关税措施一旦实施，将基本抑制德国2025年的经济增长，2026年的经济增长也将被限制在 1.2%左右。此前，该机构预测德国经济今年有望增长0.2%，明年增长1.5%。(央视新闻) ...

当地时间7月16日，美股三大指数上涨，纳斯达克指数收盘创历史新高。美国大型科技股涨跌不一，特 斯拉涨超3%，日内总市值增加350.77亿美元（折合人民币约为2518.5亿元）。大宗商品方面，国际黄金 上涨。 央视新闻消息，当地时间7月16日，美国总统特朗普在谈及美联储主席鲍威尔时表示，目前没有计划采 取任何行动。此外，美联储发布的经济状况"褐皮书"显示，从5月下旬到7月初，经济活动略有增加。不 确定性仍然很高，导致企业持续保持谨慎。 新华社消息，据美国地质调查局地震信息网消息，格林尼治时间16日20时37分（北京时间17日4时37 分），美国阿拉斯加州南部海域发生7.3级地震，震中位于阿拉斯加州桑德波因特以南87公里，震源深 度20.1公里。 纳斯达克指数收盘创历史新高 美股三大指数均小幅收涨。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数 分别上涨0.53%、0.25%、0.32%，其中，纳斯达克指数收盘创历史新高。 美国大型科技股涨跌不一。截至收盘，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.1%。成分股中，特斯拉涨超3%， 总市值增加350.77亿美元（折合人民币约为2518.5亿元）。 消息 ...

德国央行16日发布的最新月度报告显示，今年1至3月，由于企业预期美国关税而提前交货，且工业生产 激增，德国经济增长了0.4%。第二季度经济可能停滞不前。德国央行表示，这些预期效应现已消退， 并警告称美国关税政策将带来"更多阻力"。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly above market expectations and the highest increase since February [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, matching market expectations and higher than the 0.1% increase in May, marking the second-highest monthly increase in 2025 [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.1% in May, while the year-on-year core CPI growth was 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3% [1] Group 2 - The market is currently pricing in a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in July, indicating that the June inflation data has not significantly impacted short-term rate cut expectations [2] - There is a notable divergence in market expectations regarding a potential rate cut in September, with a 48% probability of maintaining rates and a 52% probability of a rate cut, reflecting growing concerns about possible inflation rebounds [2] - The article suggests that while June's CPI data shows some warming, the overall performance remains moderate, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on commodity prices is beginning to emerge, warranting further observation [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports from China, particularly in the electric tools, hand tools, and lawnmower sectors, as well as the broader implications for supply chains and market dynamics [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Tariff Increases**: In the first half of 2025, the average tariff on Chinese imports reached 54%, with electric tools facing a 35.8% tariff and lawnmowers experiencing a significant increase [1][4]. - **Decline in Market Share**: Since the trade war began in 2018, China's share of electric tool exports to the U.S. has dropped from 40%-45% to around 20%, indicating a trend of supply chain relocation [1][5]. - **Impact on Import Volumes**: The correlation between freight costs and import values suggests that while both increased in 2024, a sharp decline is expected post-March 2025 due to tariff impacts [1][6][7]. - **Hand Tools Performance**: Hand tools showed stable growth in early 2025, but a significant drop to -7% in May indicates the growing impact of tariffs on actual import volumes [1][8]. - **Lawnmower Market Share**: The market share of Chinese lawnmowers plummeted from 40%-45% at the end of 2023 to 13% by May 2025, highlighting the direct impact of high tariffs [1][10]. - **Overall Import Trends**: The overall import value has been suppressed by high tariffs, with monthly amounts decreasing by 10%-20%, yet consumer demand remains positive, suggesting potential for inventory replenishment if tariffs stabilize [3][13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Data Importance**: U.S. customs data is crucial for understanding actual market demand and supply, especially in the context of changing tariffs and supply chain dynamics [2][17]. - **Future Opportunities**: The current export chain opportunities are linked to stable tariff expectations and low inventory levels, which may lead to a replenishment cycle in the third quarter of 2025 [15]. - **Stock Selection**: Companies with strong overseas operations should be prioritized for investment, as they are less affected by the high tariffs imposed on Chinese goods [16]. - **Impact of U.S.-China Decoupling**: The increasing decoupling between the U.S. and China makes U.S. customs data more relevant for industry research, providing better insights into trade changes and their effects on the market [17].

2. 能源通胀负增收窄，核心商品对通胀贡献度继续提升。具体而言，6 月能源 项同比下降 0.8%，降幅较 5 月份收窄 2.7 个百分点；6 月份食品项同比上升 3.0%，较 5 月份上升 0.1 个百分点。核心 CPI 方面，6 月核心 CPI 同比上升 2.9%，环比上升 0.2%。同比增速、环比增速均边际走强。核心商品同比增速较 5 月上升 0.42 个百分点至 0.7%；核心服务同比上升 3.616%，较 5 月份上升约 0.06 个百分点，基本持平。 宏观经济点评 2025 年 07 月 16 日 美国通胀如期反弹，但对联储降息影响或较小 ——美国 6 月 CPI 点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 2025 年 6 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，环比上 升 0.3%，同比增速超市场预期；核心 CPI 同比上升 2.9%，环比上升 0.2%，环 比 ...

Core Insights - The June inflation data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly above market expectations of 2.6%, primarily driven by rising energy prices [3][4] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a continued trend of lower-than-expected inflation [3][5] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more pronounced, with economists warning that price increases related to tariffs may not be immediate but could lead to greater consumer cost pressures over time [5][6] Inflation Data - The consumer price index (CPI) for June increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest year-on-year increase since February [3] - Energy prices rose by 0.9% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, with gasoline and fuel prices also increasing [3][4] - Core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.2% and year-on-year increase of 2.9% reflects a slowdown in rent inflation and used car prices [3][5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, both the stock and bond markets faced pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 400 points and the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% [4][7] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have diminished, with the probability of maintaining rates in July rising to 97% [7][8] Tariff Impacts - Recent trade policies have led to increased tariffs on a wide range of goods, causing uncertainty in pricing for businesses and consumers [5][6] - The potential for rising prices on imported goods due to tariffs is expected to manifest in the coming months as companies deplete existing inventories [5][6] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is currently assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, with a divided outlook among policymakers regarding the timing of potential rate cuts [7][8] - The influence of tariffs on inflation is expected to be a gradual process, with significant effects possibly taking months to fully materialize [5][6][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by tariff policies and supply - demand changes. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, and the supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement and waiting - and - seeing [3][5]. - The alumina market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a structurally surplus situation in July, but the spot market still has some support, and the upper pressure on the price rebound is around 3200 yuan [12][16]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The short - term price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range increase or decrease in July [21][22]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a weak supply - demand relationship. The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to be mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25][27]. - The zinc market has a continuous increase in supply and enters the off - season of consumption. The price is under pressure and may decline [33][34]. - The lead market has limited supply growth and improved consumption. The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [39][40]. - The nickel market is affected by tariff concerns, with weak supply and demand in the off - season. The price is weak and oscillating with cost support [43][44]. - The stainless steel market has poor demand both at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [49][50]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a balanced supply - demand situation in July. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [55][56]. - The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and price transmission. The short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. - The lithium carbonate market has many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [65][66]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 77,980 yuan/ton, up 0.06%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 12,976 lots to 499,000 lots. In the spot market, the price trends in different regions vary [2]. Important Information - The US and Indonesia reached an agreement on July 15th. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates increased year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [3][4]. Logic Analysis - The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory is increasing, and the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Not provided Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3111 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 8379 lots to 422,200 lots. The spot price increased in different regions [9]. Important Information - There are many aspects of information, including China's central financial meeting, domestic spot transactions, warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [10][11][12]. Logic Analysis - The production capacity is stable, but the output is increasing. The supply - demand pattern is expected to change, and the spot market still has support [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions continue to hold; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract increased by 85 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot price increased slightly in different regions [20]. Important Information - It includes inventory changes, US inflation data, Sino - US trade information, and housing completion data [21]. Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - factors and fundamentals, the price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range change [22]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under short - term pressure and fluctuates; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [23] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 19,820 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 93 lots to 10,075 lots. The spot price remained stable [25]. Important Information - It includes production, cost, profit, and inventory data [25][26]. Logic Analysis - The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [27]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure at a high level and maintains a bearish view; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is more than 400 yuan; Option: Wait and see [30] Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.27% to 22,030 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index decreased by 3486 lots to 231,600 lots. The spot market trading is mainly among traders [32]. Important Information - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, the consumption is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions when the price is high; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Option: Wait and see [35] Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.65% to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3823 lots to 96,600 lots. The spot market trading is not good [37]. Important Information - Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [39]. Logic Analysis - The supply growth is limited, the consumption is improving, and the short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out in the range; Arbitrage and Option: Not provided [41] Nickel Market Review - The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 increased by 1120 yuan to 120,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,098 lots. The spot premium changed [42]. Important Information - GKEML completed the LME warehouse receipts of three metals, and the US adjusted the tariff on Indonesian goods [43]. Logic Analysis - Affected by tariff concerns, the supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is weak and oscillating [44]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Option: Wait and see [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2508 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 12,670 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 5886 lots. The spot price is in a certain range [48]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of the BIS stainless - steel certification rule, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless - steel products [49]. Logic Analysis - The demand is poor at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [51] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated weakly and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The spot price of some grades increased [52][54]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [55]. Logic Analysis - The supply - demand situation in July may be balanced. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [56]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price oscillates weakly and can be bullish after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [53] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose first and then fell, closing at 42,945 yuan/ton, up 1.50%. The spot price remained unchanged [57][58]. Important Information - China and the EU held an energy dialogue and agreed to continue cooperation in multiple fields [59]. Logic Analysis - Affected by rumors and price transmission, the short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range; Arbitrage: Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon strategy; Option: Wait and see [63] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract increased by 260 yuan to 66,420 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 3318 lots. The spot price increased [64]. Important Information - China adjusted the technology export catalog, and Chilean indigenous groups applied to suspend a lithium - mining cooperation procedure [65]. Logic Analysis - There are many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [66]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait for the right - side short - selling opportunity; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [67][68][70]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy amidst ongoing uncertainties due to tariff policies, highlighting a slowdown in economic growth and mixed signals from various economic indicators [1][4]. Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for 2025 has been revised down from 2.2% to 1.6% by OECD, and from 1.8% to 1.5% by IMF for 2026 [1]. - Current expectations suggest a decline in U.S. economic growth to around 1.4% this year, primarily due to the waning effects of fiscal stimulus and the impact of high interest rates [1][5]. - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1% in June, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, surpassing expectations [5][6]. Labor Market Dynamics - Despite a robust unemployment rate, signs of weakness in the labor market are emerging, particularly in the slowdown of job growth in the private sector compared to the public sector [6]. - The labor market is influenced by the overall economic slowdown and structural adjustments within industries, indicating a gradual weakening trend [6]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest since February, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is mitigated by falling global energy prices and the limited scope of tariff implementation [1][8]. - The decline in oil prices from around $80 to approximately $65 per barrel has significantly contributed to controlling inflation [8]. - The actual impact of tariffs is less than initially expected due to delays in implementation and lower-than-anticipated tariff rates [9][10]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, as inflation indicators are trending downward and economic growth is slowing [11][12]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the federal funds rate may eventually decrease to around 2% or lower, although this will be a gradual process [11]. Currency and Trade Dynamics - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index is attributed to expectations of Fed rate cuts and a slowdown in global trade growth, which reduces demand for the dollar [13]. - Despite some supportive factors for the dollar, such as stable capital inflows, the prevailing negative factors are expected to dominate in the short term, leading to a continued weak and volatile dollar index [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The higher-than-expected US CPI in June weakens the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but Powell's stance is neutral. The easing of Sino-US negotiations and the optimistic trade sentiment in some countries reduce the safe-haven demand, but there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in September. Wall Street institutions are bullish on gold, which is supported by geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases in the long term. The US dollar trend and subsequent economic data are the key disturbances [3]. - Copper: Trump's move to impose tariffs on copper has both explicit and implicit reasons. In the short term, copper prices may still be mainly volatile [15]. - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The tariffs imposed by Trump may suppress metals. The upside space of Shanghai aluminum is limited in the short term, and it is recommended to be bearish in the medium and long term. Alumina has an expected supply surplus, and there is still a short - term risk of a squeeze, but the upward momentum is weakening. The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strongly supported, but the demand is weak [34][35]. - Zinc: The supply side is gradually transitioning from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak in the traditional off - season. In the short term, focus on macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [62]. - Nickel: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, nickel iron prices are falling due to weak demand, stainless steel has limited upward drive, and nickel sulfate maintains a production - based - on - sales trend. Pay attention to tariff policies and fundamental improvements [75]. - Tin: Tin prices are still in a volatile trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market of the lithium industry has an active transaction at the mine and lithium salt ends, but the downstream demand is dull. The futures show a pattern of reducing positions and rising, and the short - term market may be driven by sentiment [108]. - Silicon Industry Chain: The demand for industrial silicon has some support, but high inventory suppresses price increases. The prices of downstream products of polysilicon do not move in tandem. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and strong pattern, and beware of the risk of chasing up [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Market Analysis**: The US 6 - month CPI weakens the interest - rate - cut expectation this month, but Powell's stance is neutral. The safe - haven demand is reduced, but there is still an expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Wall Street institutions are bullish on gold, and the US dollar trend and economic data are key factors [3]. - **Data**: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, ratios, and spreads are presented, such as SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [4][10][12]. Copper - **Price and Market Analysis**: Trump's tariff on copper is based on the 232 clause of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act and aims to support the return of the US manufacturing industry. Copper prices may be volatile in the short term [15]. - **Data**: Copper futures and spot data are provided, including the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures, as well as spot prices, premiums, import profits and losses, and warehouse receipts [16][23][27]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Analysis**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is expected to accumulate. Trump's tariffs may suppress metals. Alumina has a supply surplus expectation, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34][35]. - **Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot data are presented, including prices, spreads, basis, and inventory data [36][43][46]. Zinc - **Price and Market Analysis**: The supply side is transitioning from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak in the off - season. Focus on macro data and supply - side disturbances in the short term [62]. - **Data**: Zinc futures and spot data are provided, including prices, spreads, basis, and inventory data [63][68][71]. Nickel - **Price and Market Analysis**: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, nickel iron prices are falling due to weak demand, stainless steel has limited upward drive, and nickel sulfate maintains a production - based - on - sales trend. Pay attention to tariff policies and fundamental improvements [75]. - **Data**: Nickel futures and related data are presented, including prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts, as well as data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86]. Tin - **Price and Market Analysis**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - **Data**: Tin futures and spot data are provided, including prices, spreads, and inventory data [93][98][101]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Analysis**: The spot market of the lithium industry has an active transaction at the mine and lithium salt ends, but the downstream demand is dull. The futures show a pattern of reducing positions and rising, and the short - term market may be driven by sentiment [108]. - **Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot data are presented, including prices, spreads, and inventory data [109][112][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Market Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon has some support, but high inventory suppresses price increases. The prices of downstream products of polysilicon do not move in tandem. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and strong pattern, and beware of the risk of chasing up [117]. - **Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related data are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, and inventory data [118][120][141].