瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11. 28」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 ◆ 行情回顾：美联储降息预期大幅抬升，贵金属市场本周偏强运行。宏观数据方面，美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心 PPI环比上涨0.1%，较前值有所抬升，但主要由食品能源价格上涨驱动，核心商品PPI增速有所放缓；ADP就业报告显 示，截至2025年11月8日四周内，美国私营企业雇主平均每周削减13,500个岗位，较前值每周减少2,500人的幅度显著 扩大，美国就业市场延续降温态势。联储内部表态整体呈鸽派基调，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示在劳动力走软背景下 存在降息空间，旧金山联储主席戴利支持下次会议降息，理事米兰重申应在通胀尚高时实施更大幅度降息，美联储12 月降息25个基点的概率由上周五的40%大幅抬升至86.9%，降息预期提振市场乐观交易情绪。地缘方面，美乌完成一份 ...

11月28日，受降息预期升温、地缘政治风险再现双重催化，金价强势突破4220美元关口。截至A股收 盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨0.65%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨1.06%，有色金属ETF基金（516650） 涨1.39%。 每日经济新闻 有市场分析指出，周五美国没有重要的经济数据公布，因此黄金将主要受美联储降息预期和整体风险情 绪的影响。而12 月降息已成为市场主流预期，大幅削弱了美元的中期强势基础。与此同时，未来的政 策制定层面大概率继续支持低利率环境，这进一步强化了黄金的中期吸引力。 消息面上，本周多位美联储官员释放鸽派言论，12月再次降息的可能性依然存在。根据预测平台数据， 鸽派候选人凯文·哈塞特已成为下一任美联储主席的热门人选，外界普遍预期他将落实特朗普大幅降息 的呼吁。 ...

Group 1: Solana ETF and Market Dynamics - The Solana ETF experienced its first net outflow, with a total of $8.1 million withdrawn, including $34 million from the 21Shares Solana ETF [1][5] - The outflow indicates a significant shift in institutional investment strategies towards Solana, contrasting with the inflow seen in other ETFs like XRP [5] - The SOL price has dropped below the $140 mark, triggering stop-loss orders among leveraged long positions, exacerbating selling pressure [5][6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 86.9%, with a 13.1% chance of maintaining the current rate [3] - This shift in monetary policy expectations is reshaping global capital market liquidity, leading to a mixed performance in Asian and global stock markets [3] - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by hedge funds shorting it, poses a risk to cryptocurrencies, including Solana, as the negative correlation between the dollar and crypto assets has intensified [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of SOL - Technical indicators show a bearish trend for SOL, with MACD signaling a strong downward momentum and KDJ indicating overbought conditions [6][7] - Key price levels for SOL include support at $133 and resistance at $145, with significant trading activity noted between $128.86 and $143.99 [6] - If the support level at $133 is breached, the potential for further liquidation of long positions increases, with the next target being the stop-loss area at $128.22 [6][10] Group 4: Geopolitical and Macro Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia and the US, are contributing to market volatility and risk re-evaluation across various asset classes [9] - The current environment is characterized by a mix of macroeconomic risks, technical pressures, and expectations of monetary easing, leading to a conservative and short-term focus among investors [9][10] - The ongoing geopolitical developments will likely influence market behavior, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector, where volatility is expected to persist [10]

基本面： ---趋势判断---- 周五（11月28日）白银亚盘震荡上涨，关注回落支撑位多单布局。白银现货价格53.76附近。亚市早盘先跌后涨，亚盘尾盘左右快速拉升至日内高点53.9附 近，随后逐步回落并在53.2-53.3区间进入横盘震荡。受降息预期升温、工业需求激增以及中国市场供应紧张对多头形成支撑等多重因素影响，白银价格涨势 持续延续。交易商正密切关注12月市场是否会出现大幅波动。感恩节当周，现货白银依旧保持强劲走势，此次涨势传递出明确信号：买家交易活跃度居高不 下，而美联储的政策动向堪称此次涨势的核心推手。本周三，现货白银价格触及53.39美元，当日涨幅超3.5%；过去一个月累计涨幅已接近13.5%，同比涨幅 更是超75%。这一涨幅看似惊人，却符合市场规律：在贵金属市场真正迎来牛市行情时，白银往往会迎来暴涨，而非仅因避险需求出现小幅波动。 美联储政策立场支撑多头主导市场本周初，白银价格维持在50美元附近，交易商普遍强烈预期美联储将于12月实施降息。疲软的劳动力数据，加之纽约联邦 储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯释放的宽松信号，使得今年美联储第三次降息的概率从约40%飙升至80%以上。而这种市场环境正是白银所青 ...

几位美联储官员最近表示愿意采取短期宽松政策，这加强了市场对美联储可能在12月会议上再次降息25个基点的预期。 这一前景继续对美元构成结构性压力，有助于限制白银的大幅回调。 与此同时，在对美联储宽松政策信心增强的推动下，全球股市人气改善，在一定程度上减少了对避险资产的需求。然 而，这种影响被持续存在的地缘政治风险部分抵消。这令投资者保持适度谨慎，间接支撑了白银。 美元指数近期下跌后趋于稳定，略高于本周低点。最近美国公布的经济数据，包括喜忧参半的制造业数据、劳动力市场 走软的迹象和消费势头减弱，强化了对美国经济放缓的预期。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.9%，维持利率不变的概率为13.1%。美联储到明年1月累计 降息25个基点的概率为67.3%，维持利率不变的概率为9.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为23.1%。 今日周五(11月28日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于53.81一线上方，今日开盘于53.35美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报54.01美元/盎司，上涨1.07%，最高触及54.22美元/盎司，最低下探53.30美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向震荡走势。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations influencing prices. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors, and the overall market lacks a unified trend [2][4][21] - For financial products such as stocks and bonds, geopolitical and macro - economic factors also play important roles, and short - term caution is recommended [48][49] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Night - time international oil prices rose slightly. Market expectations for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict are still wavering. OPEC may maintain its production policy, and the increasing expectation of a December Fed rate cut boosts oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market showed a differentiated performance overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly with the cost of crude oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil was weak. In the future, the overall contradiction is limited, with high - sulfur fuel oil affected by geopolitical risks and low - sulfur fuel oil having sufficient supply [22] - **Asphalt**: The commercial inventory of asphalt is decreasing faster. The December production plan is lower year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally, and the market is expected to be loose at the end of the year, putting pressure on prices [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals showed a volatile performance. The uncertainty of interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects led to high - level oscillations. On the first day of the listing of platinum futures, the price fluctuated sharply, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The average copper price this year was strong. Next year, the growth rate gap between supply and demand may narrow, and the price increase will be supported by factors such as liquidity and demand for green carbon and intelligent computing. Short - term, a small amount of chasing up can be attempted [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price will mainly oscillate [5] - **Zinc**: Overseas funds have a strong influence. The domestic ore supply is tightening, and the bottom support is strong, but the consumption outlook is under pressure. The short - term price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the decline of the external market has slowed down. The domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price will oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the market sentiment was cold. The cost support of stainless steel continued to decline, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rebounds [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin turned down. Shanghai tin broke through 300,000 yuan and then adjusted. Pay attention to the inventory changes this week. It is recommended to short on rallies and hedge risks with call options [11] - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The production is at a relatively high level, the inventory is slowly increasing, and the bottom support is expected to move down [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The demand has resilience, the supply is at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to rise, and the spot market rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to continue [24] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term can consider unilateral long or positive spread trading, but the high inventory in ports may suppress the price increase [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The US gasoline crack spread has weakened. The domestic device load has been slightly adjusted down, and the price will oscillate [26] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The supply - demand structure has been slightly improved, the profit has been repaired, and the price will continue to oscillate [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene in Shandong is slightly tight, and the price has risen, but the cost pressure on downstream products may limit the increase. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating. The export situation may improve, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. Caustic soda is also oscillating, with high inventory and weak demand [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term supply - demand of PX is weakening, but the medium - term is expected to be strong. PTA is driven by cost, and the processing margin is expected to be repaired [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output has decreased, and the supply has improved marginally, but the medium - term is still weak [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - grade chip demand is weakening, and the cost is the main driving factor [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. Pay attention to the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The overseas supply - demand of palm oil is weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. Soybean oil is affected by the price of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the customs clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The external market has a short - term boost to rapeseed meal, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [38] - **Corn**: The north port corn price is firm, and the supply and transportation of northeast corn are a concern. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the northeast [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Hogs**: The number of fertile sows has decreased, and the industry is reducing production capacity. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term may form a double - bottom pattern [41] - **Eggs**: The market is trading on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The long - term supply pressure is expected to ease, and the fundamentals are expected to improve [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: US cotton has rebounded. The domestic cotton cost provides support, and the sales progress is fast. The cotton yarn market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient. The expected sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is relatively good, and attention should be paid to the production situation [44] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but the long - term may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [45] - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory provides support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price has continued to fall. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) shows a differentiated trend. The far - month contract is under pressure from the resumption of navigation expectations, and the near - month contract is dragged down by the weak spot market. Consider the reverse spread strategy for near - month contracts [21] - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: The stock market closed down, and the futures index also fell. Geopolitical and macro - economic factors have an impact. A wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is trading lightly. The price will oscillate weakly in the range, and cautious operation is recommended [49]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations with a strong upward bias, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties [2][4][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts: The CME FedWatch tool indicates over 85% probability for a rate cut in December, with continued expectations for cuts through 2026 due to slowing U.S. economic growth and the potential successor to the Fed chair advocating for easing [2]. - Economic uncertainty and mixed consumer and investment demand: Online sales during Thanksgiving increased by 6% year-on-year, but overall holiday season sales growth slowed to 2.1%, reflecting a blend of weak consumer sentiment and economic resilience. This low growth environment may suppress inflation, creating conditions for rate cuts. Additionally, India's gold imports surged by 200% in October, indicating strong investment demand, supported by ongoing central bank purchases globally [2]. - Geopolitical risks add complexity: Progress in Ukraine peace talks faces core disagreements, and the intertwining of geopolitical uncertainty with expectations of over 90 basis points of Fed rate cuts in the next year and a half enhances gold's appeal as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - Daily level: Gold showed a consolidating trend with a small bearish candle. The price broke out of a previous triangular consolidation pattern, with key support at the 5-day moving average around 4140-4145. If this support is breached, attention will shift to the 10-day moving average near 4105, while resistance is focused on the critical level of 4245 [4]. - Four-hour level: The overall trend remains unchanged, with a focus on the potential end of the fifth wave of the C-2-c structure. Recent price action has shown high-level fluctuations, with a trendline breakout. Short-term resistance is at 4173/4174, and if surpassed, the next focus will be on 4192/4193. Key support is identified at 4109, which, if broken, may indicate the completion of the C-2 wave and a potential shift to a C-3 downward phase [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gold market is influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases, which support the rise in precious metals prices [4]. - As of November 27, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 941.00 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 6.16 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 947.16 yuan per gram [3]. - The international gold price increased by 0.79%, closing at 4162.35 USD per ounce, with a peak of 4173 USD [5]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that economic activity has remained stable, with some regions reporting slight declines and others slight growth, suggesting a risk of economic slowdown in the coming months [3]. - The U.S. job market shows improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April, which is below the expected 225,000 [3]. - The medium to long-term bullish trend in gold prices is expected to continue, with potential to rise above 4200 USD after breaking previous resistance levels [6].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has led to a significant price increase, with the market showing a strong upward trend despite potential risks from geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, palladium futures opened significantly higher, reaching a peak of 409.85 yuan and a low of 368.05 yuan, with a price increase of 2.97% [1]. - The current palladium futures market is characterized by a strong upward trend, indicating robust market performance [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Short-term palladium supply remains tight, with inventories at multi-year lows, and geopolitical risks, particularly from Russia, which accounts for over 40% of global supply, continue to pose challenges [1]. - The demand for palladium is influenced by the automotive sector's shift towards electrification, which may impact palladium's demand compared to platinum [2]. - Despite a general slowdown in demand due to high palladium prices, favorable factors such as low inventory and potential investment inflows are expected to support prices in the short term [2]. Group 3: Price Forecasts - The price of palladium is projected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the performance of other precious metals like gold and silver, which have seen significant price increases this year [2]. - However, the long-term outlook for high palladium prices may be challenged by declining industrial demand and the overall trend of reduced demand for gasoline vehicles [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, which may support precious metal prices. Global central banks are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks remain unresolved, all of which are factors that could support precious metal prices [1]. - The supply - demand outlook for platinum from 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate upwards [1]. - The global palladium supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Gold and Silver - **Price and Volume Data**: For Shanghai gold futures, the closing price on 2025 - 11 - 26 was 946.72, with a change of 14.16 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 341,225. For spot Shanghai gold T + D, the closing price was 941.17, and the trading volume was 57,208. For international gold, the closing price of COMEX futures active contract was 4126.30, and the closing price of London gold spot was 4072.50. Similar data is provided for silver [1]. - **Important Information**: The Fed's Beige Book shows little economic change during the government - shutdown period, with tariff pressure squeezing corporate profits and AI suppressing some recruitment demand. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan, and the official budget watchdog leaked the budget [1]. - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: The negative ADP private - sector weekly new employment in the US and some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut have increased the expectation of a December rate cut. Japan's economic stimulus plan may increase its debt burden, and the UK's fiscal situation has changed, all of which may support precious metal prices [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Investors should mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 870 - 890 and the resistance level around 960 - 1000. Similar levels are provided for silver [1]. Platinum - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: High mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affect platinum production, while demand from industries such as hydrogen production and glass fiber is expected to be positive. The supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and combined with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate upwards [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term, or pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on platinum and short on palladium". For London platinum prices, pay attention to the support level around 1260 - 1460 and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000. For domestic platinum prices, pay attention to the support level around 325 - 377 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1]. Palladium - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: Supply is affected by mining and other issues, but the supply of recycled palladium is expected to increase. Demand from the automotive sector is expected to decline, while demand from industrial and medical fields has low elasticity. The global palladium supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term. For London palladium prices, pay attention to the support level around 1080 - 1280 and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800. For domestic palladium prices, pay attention to the support level around 320 - 350 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1].