【6月17日尿素盘面反弹，后续行情受多因素影响】6月17日，尿素盘面继续反弹近4%，上游工厂价格 不同幅度上调。市场情绪被连日反弹的期货价格提涨，下游成交气氛转好。本周上涨受伊以冲突影响， 国际尿素供应扰动预期刺激国内价格上涨。 基本面看，供给端日产维持在20万吨以上，中长期窄幅波 动，压制行情上方空间。需求端，农需备肥好转，东北玉米追肥将展开，华北农需预计下月启动；复合 肥工厂开工负荷下降，成品库存去化受阻，对原料尿素需求承接力弱。上周厂内库存增加，出口订单企 业主动累库，月底出口货物释放后库存压力将缓解。 综合而言，尿素基本面宽松，本次反弹因价格低 位贸易商拿货增加及伊以冲突刺激能化板块走强，多为市场情绪主导，基本面未明显好转，盘面反弹难 形成持续看涨行情，但后续农需启动、出口缓解供应压力，上下空间有限。 期货方面，尿素主力2509 合约1730元/吨高开高走，收于1774元/吨，涨3.99%，持仓量285825手。前二十名主力持仓席位中，多 头+6383手，空头-8785手。国泰君安净多单增加4697手、中泰期货净多单减少5624手；方正中期净空单 减少7504手，海通期货净空单减少2377手。 202 ...

Report Overview - The report mainly focuses on the shipping industry, providing data on EC futures contracts, spot freight rate indices, and other related information, as well as analyzing the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on the shipping market [2][3] 1. EC Futures Contracts 1.1 Contract Price and Trading Volume - EC2506 had a closing price of 1901.8, a decline of 1.68% with a trading volume of 256 and a position change of -536 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 2038.0, an increase of 0.39% with a trading volume of 56247 and a position change of 843 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 206.7, an increase of 0.10% with a trading volume of 28998 and a position change of -240 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1611.0, a decline of 0.01% with a trading volume of 6225 and a position change of -107 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1431.5, a decline of 1.52% with a trading volume of 2901 and a position change of -230 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1240.4, a decline of 2.61% with a trading volume of 382.4 and a position change of 823 [2] 1.2 Month - to - Month Spread - The spread between EC2506 - 2508 was -136.2, with previous spreads of -95.7, -130.1, and -40.5 for the previous day, two days ago, and three days ago respectively, and a week - on - week change of -60.7 [2] - The spread between EC2508 - 2510 was 6.6, with previous spreads of 621.9, 615.3, and 622.4, and a week - on - week change of -8.5 [2] - The spread between EC2506 - 2510 was 485.7, with previous spreads of 5196, -33.9, and -69.2, and a week - on - week change of 492.3 [2] - The spread between EC2510 - 2512 was 1.6, with previous spreads of -11.1, -194.9, and -196.5, and a week - on - week change of -188.3 [2] - The spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 21.9, with previous spreads of 27.0, 179.5, and 157.6, and a week - on - week change of 161.1 [2] 2. Spot Freight Rate Indices 2.1 European Line Spot Freight Rate Indices - SCEIS was 1247.05 on June 9, 2025, with a change of 29.53% compared to the previous period, and the previous value was 1622.81 with a change of 0.46% [2] - SCFI was 1587 on June 13, 2025, with an increase of 10.62% compared to the previous period, and the previous value was 1667 with an increase of 5.04% [2] - CCFI was 1488.87 on June 13, 2025, with an increase of 1.56% compared to the previous period, and the previous value was 1397.02 [2] - NCFI was 1307.92 on June 13, 2025, with an increase of 16.40% compared to the previous period, and the previous value was 1123.64 with an increase of 5.25% [2] - TCI was 852.18 on June 17, 2025, with no change compared to the previous period, and the previous value was 869.91 with an increase of 2.08% [2] 2.2 Other Routes' Spot Freight Rate Indices - The report also provides seasonal trend charts for various routes' TCI indices, including the Mediterranean West, Mediterranean East, US East, US West, South America West, Southeast Asia Ho Chi Minh, Persian Gulf, East Africa, India - Pakistan, South Africa, and West Africa [17][19] 3. Shipping Market News - On June 18, Iran launched hypersonic missiles at Israel, and the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was decreasing due to the Israel - Iran conflict [3] - The Baltic and International Maritime Council stated that the large - scale conflict between Israel and Iran made the entire shipping industry uneasy, and some ships were avoiding the Strait of Hormuz [3] - S&P Global Market Intelligence also indicated that the threat of the conflict was "sufficient to disrupt the shipping industry", and it was expected that shipping costs through the Strait of Hormuz would rise [3] 4. Shipping Capacity Arrangement - In June and July 2025, the average weekly shipping capacity was 297,000 TEU and 293,000 TEU respectively [2] - Shipping capacity was neutral from the second half of June to the first half of July, and was relatively high in the second half of July [2] 5. Recent European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the second half of June (week 24 - 25), with the lowest price of MSK at $2700 - 2800, and other companies' prices mostly reduced to $2900 - 3150, with an average of $2950, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [3] - CMA announced a price increase to $4100 for the European line in July, while ONE and HPL quoted $4043 and $4335 respectively, and MSK opened bookings at $3400 [3]

化工日报 | 2025-06-18 伊朗EG装置停车增多，EG价格上行 核心观点 市场分析 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-40美元/吨（环比-3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为117元/吨（环比+11 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨（环比-1.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为56.4万吨（环比-3.4万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.0万吨，中性，港口库存预计平稳，关注伊朗装置停车下到港节奏变化。 整体基本面供需逻辑： 供应端，6月国内供应端陆续恢复，整体负荷不高，全月供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但 是仓单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，关注地缘冲突下伊朗装置停车后到港节 奏变化；需求端，瓶片工厂新增检修计划，需求预期偏弱。后续关注原料大幅反弹后聚酯的减产动作以及乙二醇 大装置重启进度。 策略 单边：短期偏多，关注中东地缘冲突进一步演变 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期 期现货方面：昨日EG主 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-18 上游原料价格短期仍坚挺 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13870元/吨，较前一日变动-40元/吨。NR主力合约12140元/吨，较前一日变动-20 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13850元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13750元/吨， 较前一日变动-20元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1710美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1650美元/吨，较前一日变动-45美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex据中国海关总署6月9日公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合 计60.7万吨，较2024年同期的48.5万吨增加25.2%。2025年1-5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计347.6万吨， 较2024年同期的281.4万吨增加23.5%。 据隆众资讯了解，目前国内全钢胎企业开工稳定为主，前期个别检修企业装置运行恢复至常规水平，整体 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-18 情绪向好，尿素延续上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-17，尿素主力收盘1774元/吨（+51）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1790 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1810元/吨（+50）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1830元/吨（+50）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（-50），山东基差： 36元/吨（-1）；河南基差：16元/吨（-11）；江苏基差：56元/吨（-1）；尿素生产利润280元/吨（+85），出口利润569 元/吨（-50）。 供应端：截至2025-06-17，企业产能利用率87.80%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.71 万吨（+14.17），港口样 本库存量为24.50 万吨（+4.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-17，复合肥产能利用率33.81%（-3.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.77%（-0.54%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.71日（+0.24）。 尿素盘面市场走势延续，情绪向好，价格持续上涨。以色列继续袭击伊朗并导致军事冲突升级。当前正值传统农 需旺季，全国大部分地区水稻、玉米等作物的追肥旺季，多数企业新单成交尚可，尿素企业 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 仓单持续流出，工业硅盘面暂时企稳 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-18，工业硅期货价格震荡为主，主力合约2509开于7360元/吨，最后收于7360元/吨，较前一日结算变化（80） 元/吨，变化（1.10）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓318893手，2025-06-17仓单总数为56068手，较前一日变化 -755手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港地区硅价个 别走低。天津地区553#硅价格小幅上升，3303#硅价格走低。新疆、四川、上海、西北地区硅价暂稳。97硅价格同 样暂稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10400-10900（-100）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅单体企业开工持续增多， 西南、华东地区单体装置检修结束，华北地区检修装置也即将恢复，行业有机硅单体开工率预计将逼近7成。有机 硅开工情况较好，但消费表现一般，价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refined nickel market shows a pattern of supply surplus with a weak and volatile futures market but rising spot premiums, and it is recommended to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [2][3] - The stainless - steel market is also in a weak and volatile state, with the weakening cost support of nickel - iron raw materials. It is also recommended to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 17, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 119,740 yuan/ton and closed at 118,570 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.92% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 100,455 lots and an open interest of 83,823 lots [1] - The main contract 2507 continued to fluctuate narrowly, with the daily line closing in a negative line. The trading volume and open interest increased slightly. The green column area of the daily - line MACD began to expand slowly, and it may enter a weak and volatile stage in the short term. There was a top - divergence phenomenon around 123,000 on the 60 - minute line on June 6. The short - term resistance level is 122,000 - 123,000, and the support level of 119,000 has been broken, showing a bottom - divergence structure [2] - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was lowered by 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands decreased. The spot trading of refined nickel was okay overall, and the premiums increased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,241 (- 109.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,936 (1,986) tons [2] Strategy - The recent spot trading of refined nickel is relatively sluggish, and the supply surplus pattern still exists. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 118,000 - 119,000. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks, and maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices in the medium and long term [3] - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 17, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,540 yuan/ton and closed at 12,480 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 105,310 lots and an open interest of 186,878 lots [3] - The main contract continued to fluctuate narrowly, with the daily line closing in a negative line. The trading volume of the 08 contract was basically flat compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The green column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand further, and the short - term support level may be around 12,400. The resistance level is around 13,100 [4] - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market reduced their prices by 100 yuan/ton for shipment compared with the previous trading day, and the market trading volume was average, with no sign of confidence recovery. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically flat compared with the previous trading day, and the seller's quotation was mostly 940 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will run weakly in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was also 12,850 yuan/ton, with the 304/2B premium ranging from 370 to 670 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 927.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Due to the decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is around 12,400 - 12,500. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks, and maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices in the medium and long term [5] - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-18 区域流通有限，现货价格推涨 市场分析 1、6月17日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3644元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌1元/吨，跌幅 0.03%；持仓279759手，环比下跌6817手，成交297949手，环比上涨1983手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3930—4086元/吨；山东，3650—4000元/吨；华南，3600—3650元/吨； 华东，3680—3770元/吨。 昨日华北以及华南地区沥青现货价格延续涨势，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主。由于原油以及沥青期货整体 维持高位波动，现货市场挺价意愿偏强。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。整体 来看，目前沥青自身基本面驱动不足，当前盘面价格波动主要受到原油端影响，考虑到中东局势仍不明朗，市场 或面临反复扰动。 策略 单边：震荡偏强，关注伊以冲突局势发展 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-18 市场情绪一般，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场情绪一般，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2981元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3093元/吨。现货方面，昨日全国建材成交一般偏弱， 全国建材成交9.25万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，随着建材进入消费淡季，建材产销存持续回落，由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季弱需 求将持续压制钢材价格；热卷方面，目前板材利润优于建材，产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退 坡后影响板材消费，虽然出口略有下滑，但是短期仍保持高位。整体来看，钢材目前供需矛盾不大，后期关注中 美关税谈判和内需刺激政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：消费进入淡季，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交99.6万吨，环 比上涨2.36%；远期现货累计成交147.0万吨，环比上涨 ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-18 原油带动EB成本摆动，关注伊朗地缘冲突进展 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存15.30万吨（+0.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费157美元/吨（-5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费139美元/吨（-7美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差44.7美元/吨（-12.1美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-50元/吨（-5元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差331元/吨（+0元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润153元/吨（-46元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存66300吨（-13700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存45000吨（-13100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率73.8%（+1.5%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润323元/吨（+114元/吨），PS生产利润-227元/吨（+64元/吨），ABS生产利润265元/吨（+98 元/吨）。EPS开工率55.47%（+9.05%），PS开工率58.30%（-0.90%），ABS开工率64.08%（+0.06%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 目前主要芳烃系品种主要驱动在最上游的原油端，关注地缘 ...