交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：市场等待美联储会议，欧央行官员放鹰，金价小幅回落；美国三大股指 小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率 涨2.92个基点报4.164%；美元指数涨0.12%报99.10，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 7.0719；COMEX黄金期货跌0.54%报4219.90美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货958.7，现货953.25，基差-5.45，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91299千克，增加429千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous increase in China's gold reserves reflects the central bank's long-term preference for gold as a stable reserve asset amid global economic uncertainties, with a notable increase in foreign exchange reserves reaching $33,464 billion, the highest since December 2015 [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank's Gold Accumulation - The central bank has increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, with a total of 7,412 million ounces as of November, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on a single currency [1][5]. - The recent increase in gold reserves is part of a broader trend among central banks globally to enhance financial stability and currency credibility, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and the depreciation of the US dollar [5][6]. Group 2: Market Implications - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has led to a short-term rise in gold prices, supported by a weaker dollar and favorable market conditions, although gold prices have not yet surpassed the highs of October [4]. - The central bank's steady accumulation of gold is expected to provide a solid foundation for long-term price increases, reinforcing gold's status as a core asset in foreign exchange reserves [4][6]. Group 3: Macro Financial Strategy - The continuous increase in gold reserves serves not only as a reserve management strategy but also as a macro-financial layout to mitigate risks associated with the depreciation of the US dollar and rising geopolitical risks [8]. - The trend of increasing gold reserves is likely to continue, particularly in an environment of uncertain interest rates and geopolitical volatility, highlighting gold's growing importance as a core asset in foreign exchange reserves [6][8].

镍与不锈钢日评20251209:修复后区间震荡 | 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-01 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-08 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 117450.00 | 117460.00 | 280.00 | 117730.00 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 118030.00 | 117790.00 | 240.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 117850.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 118200.00 | 117950.00 | 118060.00 | 250.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 190.00 | 收盘价 | 118390.00 | 118200.00 | 118240.00 | 118030.00 | 240.00 | 收盘价 | 117790.00 | 117850.00 | | | | | | m | 上海期镍 | 成 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, causing a rise in Japanese bond yields and concerns over the reversal of carry trades, leading to adjustments in global markets [1][5] - The U.S. "small non-farm" payrolls report showed a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs in November, far below the expected increase of 10,000, which heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][5] - As of December 6, the market is pricing in an 86.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][5] Group 2 - In China, the manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded in November but remained below the expansion threshold, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.2% (up 0.2 percentage points month-on-month) and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.5% (down 0.6 percentage points month-on-month) [1][6] - The production index and new orders index for November were 50.0% (up 0.3 percentage points month-on-month) and 49.2% (up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month), respectively, indicating improvements in both production and demand [6] - The high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing PMIs showed varying degrees of decline, while the PMI for high-energy-consuming industries rebounded from low levels [6] Group 3 - Despite a cautious market sentiment ahead of significant macroeconomic events in mid-December, the A-share market experienced a slight increase, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and adjustments in insurance company risk factors [2][6] - Global commodity markets continued to rise, with non-ferrous metals leading the gains [2][6] - The overall news sentiment was positive, with potential measures to expand broker capital and adjust insurance company investment risk factors expected to bring considerable incremental funds to the market [2][6] Group 4 - From a mid-term perspective, the upward trend of the index remains intact, with the possibility of an early spring rally starting in January or February due to the short interval between the Lunar New Year and the National People's Congress [2][6] - Investment recommendations include focusing on three areas: high-dividend assets such as banks and coal, growth sectors like computing and electricity with mid-term fundamentals, and flexible opportunities in themes like commercial aerospace and robotics [2][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise due to increased investment demand, particularly through gold ETFs, amid a backdrop of low inventory and expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - As of December 8, 2025, the gold ETF (159834) has seen a net inflow of 36.24 million yuan over the last 10 trading days, with a total transaction amount of 8.36 million yuan on December 9, 2025 [1]. - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 7.412 million ounces (approximately 2305.39 tons) as of the end of November 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) for the 13th consecutive month [1]. Group 2 - The World Gold Council's report indicates that gold has performed exceptionally well in 2025, with expectations for prices to rise by 15% to 30% in 2026 based on current levels [1]. - Global gold ETFs have attracted $77 billion in inflows this year, with an increase of over 700 tons in gold holdings [1]. - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, alongside a restructured monetary credit landscape following the passage of significant fiscal legislation in the U.S. [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all strong. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view because of the macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price oscillated and weakened. New York gold approached the $4200 mark, and Shanghai gold approached the 950 - yuan mark [3]. - **Driving Force**: Since late November, the upward momentum of the gold price has mainly come from the continuous rise in the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut and the decline of the US dollar index from a high level. The short - term market has fully priced in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the recovery of market risk appetite has put pressure on the gold price. As the Fed's December interest - rate meeting approaches, the short - term market has become more cautious, and gold price fluctuations have decreased, waiting for the meeting results [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price first rose and then fell. The main futures price once reached the 93,000 - yuan mark. At night, the positions of Shanghai copper slightly decreased, and the willingness of long - position holders to take profits increased [4]. - **Driving Force**: Since late November, the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has risen, creating a macro - economic easing trading atmosphere and strengthening the financial attribute of copper. Copper is in an industrial background of supply contraction. The resonance of macro - economic and industrial positive factors has pushed the copper price to break through the 90,000 - yuan mark. In terms of funds, both the positions of Shanghai copper in China and London copper overseas have increased significantly, and the attention of funds has risen rapidly. In the short and medium terms, the macro - economic factors drive the copper price up, and the attention of funds is high, with strong upward momentum. However, due to the large short - term increase in the copper price and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the number of long - position holders taking profits may increase [4].

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds experienced a decline on Monday, with strong demand for the 3-year bond auction leading to a narrowing of losses later in the day. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next year weakened, causing yields to rise to their highest levels in at least two weeks, and even three months for some maturities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The yields on US Treasury bonds rose by 2-4 basis points during the day, with the 5-year bond leading the decline, resulting in a 2.5 basis point increase in the 2s5s10s butterfly spread, reaching its highest level since late October [1][3]. - By the end of the day, the market was pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut of approximately 77 basis points by the end of next year, down from 80 basis points at the previous Friday's close [4]. Group 2: Auction Results - The 3-year bond auction totaled $58 billion, with the awarded yield 0.8 basis points lower than the pre-auction trading level. The allocation to primary dealers was 9%, below the average of 13.1% from the previous six auctions. Indirect bidders received 72%, above the average of 62.5%, while direct bidders received 19%, compared to an average of 24.5% in the previous six auctions [1][3]. Group 3: Yield Rates - As of the close, the yield rates were as follows: 2-year at 3.5771%, 5-year at 3.7481%, 10-year at 4.1663%, and 30-year at 4.809%. The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year bonds was 58.712 basis points, while the spread between the 5-year and 30-year bonds was 105.916 basis points [2][5][6].

周一（12月8日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨3.32个基点，报4.1682%，日内交投区间为 4.1273%-4.1897%，北京时间22:30美股开盘后出现一波短线拉升行情，逼近9月25日盘中最高位4.1989% 和9月4日顶部4.2226%。两年期美债收益率涨1.68个基点，报3.5771%，美股早盘也一度从3.5770%一线 拉升，刷新日高至3.6082%；30年期美债收益率涨1.82个基点，报4.81%，一度从4.79%下方反弹至 4.83%上方。2/10年期美债收益率利差涨1.627个基点，刷新日高至+58.908个基点，逼近9月5日顶部 +60.774个基点、9月3日顶部+63.867个基点。10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率涨3.57个基点，至 1.8803%；两年期TIPS收益率涨4.17个基点，至1.0940%，逼近8月21日报价1.1426%；30年期TIPS收益 率涨2.04个基点，至2.5895%。7:45 2024/12/17 ++Revised 3:32 2025/10/24 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, highlighting a temporary cooling of investor expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by 3.32 basis points to 4.1682%, with an intraday trading range of 4.1273% to 4.1897% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.68 basis points to 3.5771%, reaching a daily high of 3.6082% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield saw a rise of 1.82 basis points to 4.81%, rebounding from below 4.79% to above 4.83% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread and Inflation-Protected Securities - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields increased by 1.627 basis points, reaching a daily high of +58.908 basis points, approaching previous highs of +60.774 and +63.867 basis points [1] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rose by 3.57 basis points to 1.8803% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield increased by 4.17 basis points to 1.0940%, nearing the August 21 quote of 1.1426% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield rose by 2.04 basis points to 2.5895% [1]

你肯定发现了，最近这黄金市场，简直像在演一出让人看不懂的"双面戏"。我朋友在北京某金店看上一款首饰，挂牌价一克将近 1300元。他顺手把照片分享到群里，结果一位在深圳做珠宝批发的朋友默默甩出一张报价单：工厂批发价，一克1100元出头。 再去看看银行，建行投资金条报价大概966元一克，浦发银行的报价则是1016元。同样是100克的金条，在不同银行买，差价能跑 到5000块钱以上。更让人迷糊的是，明明这几天国际金价在往下走，可你家门口金店那些明晃晃的标签，就是纹丝不动，稳如泰 山。 这到底是怎么回事？国际跌，国内不跟；同一个国家，差价还能这么大。这市场是不是"病"了？ 价格迷雾：一克黄金，220元的价差从哪里来？ 我们把镜头拉到2025年12月8日这一天，看看市场的真实报价。作为全球定价锚的国际伦敦金现，报价在4196美元/盎司附近震 荡，换算成人民币大约是948元一克。 国内的基础金价，以上海黄金交易所的Au9999为准，报954.99元一克。它们之间的差价只有7块钱，这说明国内外黄金市场的联动 非常紧密。 真正的价差，出现在接下来的环节。全国最大的黄金珠宝批发集散地，深圳水贝市场，足金999的批发价是1104 ...