瑞达期货研究院 「2025.5.16」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体上涨，近月合约EC2506、2508收涨33.31%、47.42%，远月合约收涨5-9%不等， 贸易战局势好转带动欧线近月合约大幅上涨。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为1302.62，较上周回落76.45点，环比下 行5.5%。美国调整对华加征关税，于美东时间5月14日凌晨撤销对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，调整实施34%的对 等关税措施，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。但近期特朗普对于进口药物的声明预示后续关税的 不确定性仍存，结合《声明》中的90天时限，8月后远月合约始终面临着贸易战再度升级的可能性。我国外交部发言 人林剑表示，美方以芬太尼为借口对中国无理加征两轮关税，中方均第一时间采取包括关税和非关税措施在内的反制 举措，坚定维护自身正当权益。这些反 ...

【文/观察者网 齐倩】近日，中国制造的两艘新型汽车运输船同日开启首航，满载着中国汽车驶向欧 洲，其中一艘为9500车位，创下全球最大汽车运输船记录。 香港《南华早报》5月16日报道称，这彰显出中国汽车出口的雄心壮志。 据报道，5月15日晚，中国自主制造、9500车位的超大型汽车滚装船"安吉安盛"轮开启首航，装载7000 辆中国制造汽车从上海出发前往欧洲。 公开资料显示，"安吉安盛"轮由上汽集团安吉物流投资建造，从设计到施工全方位融合全球最新前沿技 术。该船型总长228米、型宽37.8米，是目前全球最大装载量的低碳智能超大型汽车滚装船，打破了4月 底由比亚迪公司运输船创造的9200车位的运力记录。 清华大学公共管理学院副院长高宇宁认为，中国运输船不到一个月连创纪录，不仅展现中高端制造业蓬 勃发展，也折射了中国外贸在复杂的国际环境下的强劲韧性与活力。"超级巨轮满载中国制造汽车驶向 远洋，未来也将装载着跨国车企的进口汽车来到中国，见证中国汽车工业与世界汽车工业的'双向奔 赴'。" 据悉，上汽旗下安吉物流已建成全球领先的整车物流运输自营船队。预计在明年，安吉物流远洋船队规 模将达22艘，航线资源将覆盖西欧、墨西哥、东 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of China's agricultural strategies in response to U.S. trade policies, particularly focusing on the historical context of the "soybean war" and the current shift towards securing food supply chains in South America. Group 1: Historical Context - The entry of China into the WTO in 2001 was marked by the requirement to open its agricultural market, which led to the influx of major U.S. grain companies [3] - The "soybean war" in 2003 saw U.S. soybean prices spike from $2,000 to $4,400 per ton due to a fabricated supply crisis, resulting in significant losses for Chinese oil manufacturers and farmers [3][4] - The introduction of genetically modified soybeans by the U.S. further marginalized Chinese soybean production, with 90% of seeds used in Northeast China being from Monsanto [4] Group 2: Current Strategies - China has invested in infrastructure in South America, such as ports and railways, to secure its food supply and reduce dependency on U.S. imports [6][8] - The quality and price of South American soybeans and corn are now competitive with U.S. products, leading to a shift in consumer preferences among Chinese citizens [6] - The strategy of "infrastructure for food" allows China to control the supply chain, making it cheaper to import from South America than from the U.S. [8] Group 3: Future Implications - The article suggests that the U.S. trade policies have inadvertently strengthened China's position in the global food market, making it a key player in food security [6][10] - China's investments in South America are seen as a long-term strategy to ensure food sovereignty and reduce vulnerability to external pressures [10] - The ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S. reflect a shift in power dynamics, with China leveraging its agricultural resources as a bargaining chip [10]

一连多日，从金融市场到跨境商家，都沉浸在中美关税冲突缓解的喜悦和兴奋中，印证了中国商务部国 际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢5月11日在瑞士日内瓦，被美媒记者问及中美何时就经贸高层会谈发布 联合声明时所说："中国有句话'好饭不怕晚'，我想无论什么时候发布，世界的反应都是积极的。" 外界普遍用"高于预期"来形容此次中美两国官员在美国总统特朗普发动关税战后的首次面对面会晤。根 据5月12日发布的中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，中美各取消91%的关税、暂停实施24%的"对等关 税"90天，相互调整后的关税于5月14日正式实施。中方表示，中美迈出了通过平等对话协商解决分歧的 重要一步。 中国国际问题研究院研究员、美国问题专家刘飞涛在接受中青报·中青网记者采访时表示，此次会谈内 容主要聚焦近期新增的关税事项，不包括今年2月和3月美国以所谓芬太尼问题为由，对中国输美产品两 度加征的共计20%关税。这意味着，中国对自美国进口商品的关税从125%降至10%，美国对中国商品的 关税由145%降至30%，仍处于较高水平。美国单边强征关税的做法，还需要进一步纠正。 90天关税暂停期的谈判重点 为推动制造业回归美国并为今年到期的美国国债寻找 ...

Macro and Strategy - April financial data indicates a weaker than expected performance, with new social financing at 1.16 trillion yuan, below the expected 1.26 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 764 billion yuan [6][7] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 7.5%, reflecting a shift towards government financing dominance while private sector credit remains weak [6][7] - The report highlights a significant decline in new loans, with April's new credit at 280 billion yuan, a drop of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [7] Industry and Company Analysis Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ) - The company is a leading oilfield equipment manufacturer and service provider, with projected revenues of 9.44 billion yuan in 2010 and 133.55 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 20.83% [12] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 26.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.03% [12] - The company has a strong competitive position in high-end equipment, maintaining a leading market share in domestic and international markets [13] XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 916.60 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 1.28%, while net profit increased by 12.20% to 59.76 billion yuan [14] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to an optimized product structure and increased overseas revenue [15] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the construction machinery sector, with domestic excavator sales projected to grow [16] Hangcha Group (603298.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 164.86 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 1.15%, with net profit increasing by 17.86% [17] - The rise in profitability is driven by higher margins from overseas business and a reduction in raw material costs [18] - The company is expanding its international presence, with significant growth in its smart logistics segment [18] TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 978.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 41.3 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline due to losses in the polysilicon segment [19] - The company is focusing on expanding its transmission and transformation business, with a notable increase in overseas market contracts [19] - The polysilicon business is under pressure due to price declines, prompting the company to reduce production [20] First Solar (FSLR.O) - The company achieved a revenue of 42.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 56% [22] - The company has a strong order backlog, with 66.1 GW of orders as of Q1 2025, indicating robust future demand [23] - Despite uncertainties in U.S. policy, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand for solar energy [24] JD Group (09618.HK) - The company reported a revenue of 301.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 16% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in retail and logistics [25] - The non-GAAP net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [26] - The company is leveraging AI technology across its retail and supply chain operations to enhance efficiency [27] Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 367.26 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 116.68 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [28] - The in-vitro diagnostics segment has become the largest business unit, with significant growth in international markets [29] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in the medical device sector, with a focus on innovation and market expansion [30]

澳洲贸易部长Don Farrell罕见地对华盛顿做出坚定表态，称澳洲拒绝特朗普政府 在贸易上对北京施压的 企图，因为中国是澳洲出口的重要买家。 据《澳洲金融评论报》报道，总理Anthony Albanese则支持印尼加入跨太平洋自由 贸易协定 （CPTPP），以帮助对抗特朗普贸易战造成的全球混乱。 澳洲政府明确表示，不急于向白宫寻求减免美国施加的关税。 特朗普政府试图通过 关税重新平衡全球贸易，并寻求盟友和贸易伙伴的支持，包括提供进入美国市场 的 机会作为奖励。 然而，Farrell强调，澳洲政府并不愿意削减与中国的贸易往来，因为澳洲对中国 的 出口额远远高于对美国的出口额。 在2023-2024年度，澳洲对中国的出口额为 2120亿澳元，而对美国仅为370亿澳元。 Albanese将于下个月与特朗普进行首次面对面会谈，预计贸易将成为重要议题。 作 为特朗普全球关税措施的一部分，澳洲对美出口被施加了10%的基线税率，钢铁和 铝甚至被课以 25%的关税。 尽管澳洲已与美方沟通以取消商品关税，但Farrell表示，澳洲只会在符合国家利 益的前提 下达成协议。 在国际范围内，美国与中国间的贸易战暂时达成休战，美国和 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月15日16时44分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属大幅回落，沪金主力收跌3.20%，沪银主力收跌2.34%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现，贸易协议分批 达成；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，美国和中国宣布达成降低关 税的临时协议，避险情绪降温。特朗普会见叙利亚总统，敦促与以色列建立关系，地缘异动短期缓和。③货币属性方面，美国4月 消费者物价温和上涨，创四年来最小年涨幅。美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，预计关税将导致经济放缓，通胀前景不明朗。目前市场预 期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数反弹遇阻，美债收益率震荡上行；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数震荡反弹，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金强银弱，中期偏弱震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主 ...

Group 1 - Walmart reported Q1 revenue of $165.6 billion, a 2.5% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [1] - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.61, also better than market forecasts [1] - U.S. same-store sales grew by 4.5%, indicating success in market share acquisition through pricing strategies [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates price increases due to tariffs and economic instability, with CFO John David Rainey stating that price hikes will become evident in May [1][3] - Walmart has chosen not to provide revenue guidance for the current quarter due to uncertainty in ongoing trade negotiations [1][3] - The retail environment is challenging, with rising prices and significant fluctuations in sales volume [3] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs is expected to worsen, with Rainey noting that the retail sector is facing unprecedented price increases [3] - Walmart's global supply chain and scale provide it with a competitive advantage in negotiating better deals with suppliers [3] - The company has seen a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards lower-margin grocery items, affecting overall profitability [5] Group 4 - Walmart's online business recently achieved quarterly profitability for the first time, providing a buffer for investments in pricing and other areas [4] - Advertising and new departments have higher profit margins than core store operations, supporting the company's pricing strategy [4] Group 5 - Despite the challenges, Walmart views the tariff environment as an opportunity to gain market share while maintaining low prices [5] - The stock has shown resilience, with a 0.7% pre-market increase and a 7.7% rise year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 index [5]

黄金方面： 美国总统特朗普的关税政策进入谈判阶段，近期消息人士表示，美国与日本、韩国、印度的贸易关税协议接近达成；此外全球最大的两个经济体此前也在关 税方面达成默契，愿意进一步沟通。近期美国更是释放出信号，在关税谈判中不寻求美元贬值，这意味着黄金价格短期仍将面临重大压力。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情冲高回落且收小阴线，显示本轮反弹有可能见顶，警惕行情回落风险。指标上看，行情重新回落至62日均线下方，短期 偏弱势，日内关注上方63.65美元一线压力，下方关注60美元一线支撑。 日经225方面： 日线上，连续两个交易日行情在高位收阴线，投资者需要警惕短期行情回调风险。指标上看，行情处于20日均线上方运行，行情更加倾向于回调而非反转。 日内关注行情回调测试37311一线支撑情况。 铜方面： 日线上，行情处于20日均线下方运行，显示短期行情偏弱势。4小时线上看，行情近期偏震荡，布林线缩口明显，短期延续调整的可能性较大。日内关注 4.49美元一线支撑情况。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇提醒投资者，一方面美联储短期对降息的态度仍然比较谨慎；另一方面贸易战的焦虑明显得到缓解，这就意味着美元的 信用缺失这个逻辑短期 ...

Group 1 - The core sentiment among stock options traders has shifted from fear to greed, with a significant increase in bullish positions betting on a continued rebound in the U.S. stock market [1] - The volume ratio of call options to put options in U.S. exchanges is at its highest level since February 18, coinciding with the previous all-time high of the S&P 500 index [1] - Susquehanna International Group indicates growing confidence that the S&P 500 index will reach a new high of 6150 points in September [1] Group 2 - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has dropped from 40 to below 20 in just 21 trading days, marking the fastest decline in history [3] - Historical data shows that in the past four instances where VIX fell below 20 within 100 trading days, the S&P 500 experienced gains over the following 1, 3, 6, and 12 months [3] - Despite the current optimism, there are concerns about the sustainability of this sentiment due to ongoing trade negotiations and low corporate earnings guidance [3] Group 3 - Systematic hedge fund buying is expected to support the stock market in the coming weeks, as these funds have been waiting for buy signals [4] - The decrease in panic levels over the past month is likely to encourage investors to re-enter the market [4]