Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index improved significantly this week, returning to the expansion zone, indicating ongoing recovery in the Chinese economy[1] - The consumption sentiment index has been in contraction for several weeks, but the decline has narrowed, suggesting a gradual recovery in consumer spending[1] - The production sentiment index rebounded to the expansion zone after two weeks of contraction, showing resilience in supply-side recovery[1] - The investment sentiment index remained robust, staying in the expansion zone, continuing to support stable growth[1] - The export sentiment index is near the expansion threshold, demonstrating structural resilience despite weak global demand[1] Financial Sector Developments - Direct financing's share increased to 31.6%, reflecting improvements in multi-level capital markets[2] - The annual growth rate of financing in technology, green, and inclusive sectors is high, indicating effective financial service to the real economy[2] - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing steadily, with foreign holdings of domestic assets expanding[2] Global Economic Trends - Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, indicating contraction, while the services sector showed some expansion with a composite PMI of 51.2[6] - The US manufacturing PMI was reported at 52, and the services PMI at 53.9, both indicating continued expansion but with signs of slowing demand[6] - The US second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, driven by stronger consumer spending[7]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up before the market opens, with Dow futures rising by 0.17%, S&P 500 futures by 0.23%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.34% [1] - The S&P 500 index has not experienced a single-day drop of at least 2% for 107 consecutive trading days, marking the longest period of stability since July 2024, with a cumulative increase of 34% during this time [4] European Market Performance - The German DAX index is down by 0.31%, the UK FTSE 100 index by 0.21%, the French CAC40 index by 0.57%, and the European Stoxx 50 index by 0.31% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil has increased by 1.10%, reaching $64.11 per barrel, while Brent crude oil has risen by 1.08% to $68.36 per barrel [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - Three Federal Reserve officials support the idea of setting an inflation target range instead of maintaining the current fixed target of 2%, indicating potential structural reforms under new leadership [5] - Traders are reducing their expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with current bets indicating only a 25 basis point cut in 2025, contrasting with previous expectations of a 50 basis point cut by year-end [6] Company Developments - OpenAI plans to invest approximately $400 billion in developing five new data center sites in the US, part of a larger commitment to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure [7] - Alibaba's stock price has surged, prompting Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management to re-enter positions in the company after four years, with investments totaling around $16.3 million [8] - Micron Technology has provided an optimistic outlook for Q1, expecting revenues of approximately $12.5 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [9] - Boeing is collaborating with Palantir to integrate AI into its defense and aerospace manufacturing processes, focusing on data analysis and insights for military projects [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rates remain restrictive, and the future rate - cut path needs to balance employment and inflation. The market expects the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 to decrease from 3 to 2, which may lead to short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Gold Market - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 855.44, with a change of 8.94 compared to the previous day and 20.36 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 230,847, and the open interest was 260,256. The inventory was 59,013 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The closing price was 830.25 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 53,156 and an open interest of 214,762. The spread (near - month to far - month) was - 3.52, and the basis (spot - to - futures) was - 4.83 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 10,317, with a trading volume of 789,654 and an open interest of 336,864. The inventory was 39,682,786.18 (in troy ounces) [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,783.80 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holding was 23.77, and the iShare Gold ETF holding was 464.57 [1] Silver Market - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 10,317, with a trading volume of 789,654 and an open interest of 336,864. The inventory was 1,221,428 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: The closing price was 10,275 yuan/ten - gram, with a trading volume of 606,548 and an open interest of 5,348. The spread (near - month to far - month) was - 43, and the basis (spot - to - futures) was - 74 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 44.27 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 75,969 and an open interest of 134,910. The inventory was 526,748,211.09 (in troy ounces) [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 44.33 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holding was 15,469.12, and the PSLV Silver ETF holding was 6,132.75 [1] Other Markets - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was - 9.90 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 67.17 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 62.34 dollars/barrel [1] - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 79,920 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,993.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,155 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 802.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: The SHIBOR was 1.43 and 1.67. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was - 0.03, and the TIPS yield was 1.78 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.2351, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1013, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.3877 [1] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,821.8327, the S&P 500 was 6,656.92, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,223.32, the French CAC40 was 7,872.02, the German DAX was 23,611.33, the Nikkei 225 was 45,493.66, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3,407.31 [1] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to take partial profits on high - cost long positions at high prices and wait for price pull - backs to establish long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 880 - 930. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Various commodities in the futures market show different trends, including continued highs, oscillations, declines, and rebounds [2][5]. - Macroeconomic factors such as Fed policies, international political situations, and natural disasters impact commodity prices [8][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs, with a trend strength of 0. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 843.00, up 1.87% [2][6][7]. - **Silver**: Undergoes oscillatory adjustments, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces, with prices oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [2][12][14]. - **Zinc**: Experiences a slight decline, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][20]. - **Tin**: Ranges within an oscillatory band, with a trend strength of 0 [2][22][26]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillates within a range, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina oscillates weakly, with a trend strength of -1. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices oscillate at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures warehouse receipts increase, and market sentiment fluctuations should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0. Polysilicon's price declines on the disk, and there is a preference for short - term non - standard product shipments, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41][43]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations fluctuate, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][44]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Demand is weak, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][47][50]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Prices oscillate widely due to the game of capital sentiment, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations fluctuate, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][54][56]. - **Log**: Prices oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60]. - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: Short - term rebound, but medium - term weakness. MEG conducts a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][61]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Crude oil rebounds, providing support for international oils and fats [5][63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Argentina cancels the export tax on beans, and US soybeans oscillate weakly [5][63]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound from oversold conditions [5][65]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The sentiment in the soybean market recovers, and prices rebound and oscillate [5][65]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new grain [5][67]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the impact of "Hurricane Hagarsha" on sugarcane areas [5][69]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the transaction price of seed cotton [5][70]. - **Egg**: The peak season is not prosperous [5][72]. - **Live Pig**: It is in the stage of concentrated release of contradictions before the festival [5][73]. - **Peanut**: Prices oscillate [5][74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a sideways adjustment. Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate. Zinc will see a slight decline. The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price. Tin and aluminum will trade within a range. Alumina will trend weakly sideways, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost factors [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all increased, with daily increases of 1.87%, 1.69%, and 1.66% respectively. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2510 also rose, with daily increases of 3.50%, 3.09%, and 2.19% respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 23,071 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,974 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products changed. For example, the inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 0 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 10,819 kg [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold is 0, and that of silver is 1 [8]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,920 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.30%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.08%. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,994 US dollars, with a daily decrease of 0.08% [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 201 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,668 [10]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 2,166 tons, and the LME Copper inventory decreased by 400 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Copper was 8.19%, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the previous day [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.11%. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,900 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 0.05% [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 15,195 compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,947. The trading volume of LME Zinc increased by 938, and the open interest increased by 493 [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [14]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17,085 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.47%. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 1,999.5 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.17% [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 13,989 compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 3,336. The trading volume of LME Lead decreased by 146, and the open interest increased by 953 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 2,747 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1,700 tons [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [17]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 269,880 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.97%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.31%. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 34,270 US dollars, with a daily increase of 0.73% [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 12,188 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,060. The trading volume of LME Tin decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 182 tons, and the LME Tin inventory decreased by 5 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous day [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0 [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,685 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,877 yuan, a decrease of 57 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,280 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous day [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 4,581, and the open interest decreased by 10,619 [24]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 63.70 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 51.39 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons compared to the previous day [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, that of alumina is - 1, and that of aluminum alloy is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,730 yuan, a decrease of 670 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,890 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 13,200 compared to the previous day, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract increased by 402 [27]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved 2025 RKAB nickel ore production in Indonesia is 364 million tons. A nickel - iron smelting industrial park in Indonesia has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons per month [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [33].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - Zinc prices showed a slight decline, with the closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract down 1.11% to 21,845 yuan/ton, while the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was up 0.05% to 2,900 dollars/ton [1]. - Multiple Fed officials support shifting the inflation target from 2% to a range - based system, and with Powell's term ending next May, the market anticipates a structural change in the Fed under new leadership [2]. - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Prices**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract price decreased, while LME Zinc 3M electronic trading price slightly increased. The prices of related zinc products such as hot - dipped galvanized coils, zinc alloys, and zinc oxide also declined [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 15,195 lots to 125,331 lots, and its open interest increased by 9,947 lots to 140,372 lots. The trading volume of LME Zinc increased by 938 lots to 10,805 lots, and its open interest increased by 493 lots to 216,077 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premiums of Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin 0 zinc showed different changes, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased by 9.01 dollars/ton to 45.99 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory increased by 1,559 tons to 56,613 tons, while LME Zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons. The LME zinc注销仓单 decreased by 500 tons to 14,950 tons, and the LME off - warrant (T + 3) increased by 591 tons to 13,727 tons [1]. [News] - Multiple Fed officials including理事米兰, 鲍曼, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic support using an inflation target range instead of the current 2% precise target. The issue is still under discussion within the Fed despite the exclusion in the August five - year policy framework assessment [2].

Core Viewpoint - Three Federal Reserve officials support the idea of setting an inflation target range instead of maintaining the current fixed target of 2% [1][4][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Stephen Milan, Michelle Bowman, and Raphael Bostic have discussed the potential shift towards an inflation target range following the Federal Reserve's policy framework review in August [1][4] - Milan, a temporary member of the Federal Reserve, expressed that a "very clear" inflation target could lead to excessive micro-management and suggested that the Fed should remain open to other options [4] - Bowman, also a Trump appointee, noted that other countries use target ranges, which could alleviate anxiety over specific inflation numbers [4] Group 2: Current Inflation Context - The inflation rate has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for four and a half years, influenced by economic disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and recent tariffs imposed by Trump on global trade partners [4] - Prior to 2020, the Federal Reserve was primarily concerned with inflation rates being persistently below the target, which raised concerns about the ability to normalize interest rates [4] Group 3: Bostic's View on Inflation Range - Bostic indicated that the public often misunderstands the precision with which the Federal Reserve controls inflation and expressed a preference for discussing inflation in terms of a range [5] - He suggested a desired inflation range of approximately 1.75% to 2.25% to prevent upward inflationary pressures [5]

【市场点评】 隔夜，鲍威尔在一场商会活动上发表演讲，其重申了上周利率决议后记者会上所强调的重点：在上周的 会议上，美联储将基准利率下调至4%–4.25%区间，这是2025年的首次降息。鲍威尔当时称，这一举措 是"风险管理式降息"，旨在应对劳动力市场日益明显的预警信号。 另外他还指出，近期通胀风险偏上行，就业风险则偏下行——这是一种有挑战的局面。双向风险意味着 没有毫无风险的路径。如果货币政策的放松力度过大，我们可能无法有效控制通胀，并可能需要未来为 实现2%的通胀目标而调整政策。如果货币政策收紧的时间过长，劳动力市场可能会不必要地疲软。在 这种目标存在矛盾的情况下，政策框架要求我们在实现双重使命时保持平衡。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：要闻君） 美东时间周二(9月23日)，受美联储主席鲍威尔讲话影响，美股终结连涨势头，三大股指集体收跌暂离 高位，纳指跌近1%，科技巨头普遍回调，英伟达跌近3%。鲍威尔认为，相对于历史水平，某些资产价 格偏高，从许多指标看，股市(美股)估值相当高。 截至收盘，标普500指数跌0.55%，报6656.92点；道琼斯指数跌0.19%，报46292.78点；纳斯达克指数跌 0.95%，报2 ...

随着主席鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束，特朗普将有机会任命新的人选，这引发了市场对于美联储在 新领导层下可能发生结构性变化的猜测。 特朗普盟友率先发声 本周，三位官员从不同角度阐述了通胀目标区间的合理性。 周一，特朗普盟友、于9月16日临时加入美联储的理事米兰在纽约经济俱乐部表示： 一个过于精确的通胀目标可能导致过度的微观管理。 三位美联储官员相继表态支持采用通胀目标区间，而非目前2%的固定目标，暗示央行政策框架可能面 临调整。 本周，美联储理事米兰和鲍曼，以及亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在不同场合分别发表讲话，均认为用一 个通胀目标范围取代精确的2%目标存在优势。 美联储去年8月完成的五年一度政策框架评估中，通胀目标调整被排除在外，但官员们的最新言论显示 内部对此仍有讨论。 这些讨论浮现于一个微妙的政治背景之下。美国总统特朗普今年以来持续向美联储施压，要求其降低利 率。 他指出，"衡量通胀极其困难"，并认为回归2012年以前追求"低而稳定物价"而不设具体数值的做法，也 是"一种有趣的方式"。 不过，米兰强调，在做出任何改变前，官员们必须首先让通胀回到2%。 鲍威尔潜在接班人呼应 周二，由特朗普任命、并被视为鲍威尔 ...