2025年12月25日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.61%，收于 22330 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-270 元/吨， LME 价格 2965.5 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境偏暖和海外供应扰动为价格提供支撑，但下游开工率维持低位，现货跟涨乏力，预计铝 | | | 价维持震荡整理。 | | | 风险提示：海外供应扰动。 | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.35%，收于 2554 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 78 元/吨。 | | 氧 | 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂运行产能保持稳定。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产。 | | 化 | 交易策略：氧化铝运行产能维持高位，库存持续攀升，叠加铝土矿、煤炭价格持续下行，成本支撑力度有限， | | 铝 | 预计价格维持震荡偏弱。 | | | 风险提示：几内亚矿端扰动，大规模集中减 ...

受消费者和企业支出强韧等因素的推动，美国经济在第三季度创出两年来最快增速。美国经济分析局当地时间周二发布的报告显示，第三季度经通胀调整后 的国内生产总值折合年率增长4.3%。此前第二季度增长3.8%，同样受到居民支出带动。数据公布后不久，下届美联储主席热门候选人哈西特表示，美国降 息节奏仍不够快。财政部长贝森特更是称，2%通胀目标并非铁律，建议美联储引入"区间制"。 创两年来增速最快 受消费者支出、出口和政府支出共同推动，美国经济在第三季度以两年来的最快速度扩张，表现远超市场预期。 美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）周二公布的数据显示，经通胀调整后的美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值录得4.3%，较第二季度的3.8%进一步提升。该 报告因政府停摆而延期发布，而分析师此前预测三季度增长率为3.3%。 然而，通胀水平仍高于美联储的预期目标。美联储青睐的通胀指标——个人消费支出指数（PCE）在上季度按年率计算上涨2.8%，高于第二季度的2.1%。剔 除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心PCE通胀率为2.9%，高于第二季度的2.6%。 作为美国经济最大引擎、约占经济活动70%的消费者支出，在第三季度的年化增速达到3.5%， ...

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 这位财政部长表示，"我们理解美国民众正在承受痛苦。"物价水平"已经变得非常高"，他将此 归咎于拜登政府。他认为，通胀现在"开始回落"，部分原因在于租金的下降——而他认为，租 金的上涨是由无证移民的激增所驱动的。 尽管一些经济学家指出，最近的CPI报告可能因联邦政府在10月和11月初停摆期间让员工休假 而存在测量问题，但贝森特表示，他认为"这是一个相当准确的数字"。他说，尽管包括能源在 内的一些分项指数出现上涨，但可观测的实时数据显示它们正在下降。 来源 | 金十财经 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）支持这样一种观点： 一旦美国可持续地将物 价涨幅控制回2%的水平，就应重新考虑美联储的2%通胀目标。 "一旦我们回到2%——我认为这一目标已近在眼前——我们就可以展开讨论： 设定一个目标 区间是否更为明智？ "贝森特在《All-In Podcast》的访谈中表示，"待我们重新'锚定'该目标 后，便可讨论是否采用区间制。" 贝森特在12月22日发布的这次访谈中建议， 相关讨论或 ...

上周，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于9月的3%，经济 学家先前预计涨幅应为3.1%。 12月24日，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）表示，当美国通胀率能持续降至2%水平，美联 储就应该重新评估2%的通胀目标。 贝森特在接受采访时说道："一旦我们回到2%——我认为这一点已经在视野之内——我们就可以讨论一 个问题：改为设定一个通胀区间是否更为明智？" 贝森特在采访中建议，讨论的焦点可能围绕将通胀目标调整为1.5%至2.5%的区间，或1%至3%的区间展 开，"这将是一场非常充分、非常深入的讨论。" 2012年，美联储正式地、公开地确立了2%的通胀目标，这也被全球许多中央银行所采用。 贝森特表示，追求"精确到小数点后一位的确定性本身就很荒谬"。他补充道，如果在通胀高于目标的情 况下调整目标，可能会给外界留下"只要通胀高于某个水平，政策就总能向上调整"的印象。 贝森特说道："在达到目标并维持公信力之前，要重新锚定通胀预期是非常困难的。"他承认美国家庭正 面临可负担性方面的压力，这种不满情绪在11月举行的选举中有所体现，导致共和党失利。 "我们理解美 ...

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index improved significantly this week, returning to the expansion zone, indicating ongoing recovery in the Chinese economy[1] - The consumption sentiment index has been in contraction for several weeks, but the decline has narrowed, suggesting a gradual recovery in consumer spending[1] - The production sentiment index rebounded to the expansion zone after two weeks of contraction, showing resilience in supply-side recovery[1] - The investment sentiment index remained robust, staying in the expansion zone, continuing to support stable growth[1] - The export sentiment index is near the expansion threshold, demonstrating structural resilience despite weak global demand[1] Financial Sector Developments - Direct financing's share increased to 31.6%, reflecting improvements in multi-level capital markets[2] - The annual growth rate of financing in technology, green, and inclusive sectors is high, indicating effective financial service to the real economy[2] - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing steadily, with foreign holdings of domestic assets expanding[2] Global Economic Trends - Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, indicating contraction, while the services sector showed some expansion with a composite PMI of 51.2[6] - The US manufacturing PMI was reported at 52, and the services PMI at 53.9, both indicating continued expansion but with signs of slowing demand[6] - The US second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, driven by stronger consumer spending[7]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up before the market opens, with Dow futures rising by 0.17%, S&P 500 futures by 0.23%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.34% [1] - The S&P 500 index has not experienced a single-day drop of at least 2% for 107 consecutive trading days, marking the longest period of stability since July 2024, with a cumulative increase of 34% during this time [4] European Market Performance - The German DAX index is down by 0.31%, the UK FTSE 100 index by 0.21%, the French CAC40 index by 0.57%, and the European Stoxx 50 index by 0.31% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil has increased by 1.10%, reaching $64.11 per barrel, while Brent crude oil has risen by 1.08% to $68.36 per barrel [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - Three Federal Reserve officials support the idea of setting an inflation target range instead of maintaining the current fixed target of 2%, indicating potential structural reforms under new leadership [5] - Traders are reducing their expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with current bets indicating only a 25 basis point cut in 2025, contrasting with previous expectations of a 50 basis point cut by year-end [6] Company Developments - OpenAI plans to invest approximately $400 billion in developing five new data center sites in the US, part of a larger commitment to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure [7] - Alibaba's stock price has surged, prompting Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management to re-enter positions in the company after four years, with investments totaling around $16.3 million [8] - Micron Technology has provided an optimistic outlook for Q1, expecting revenues of approximately $12.5 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [9] - Boeing is collaborating with Palantir to integrate AI into its defense and aerospace manufacturing processes, focusing on data analysis and insights for military projects [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rates remain restrictive, and the future rate - cut path needs to balance employment and inflation. The market expects the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 to decrease from 3 to 2, which may lead to short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Gold Market - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 855.44, with a change of 8.94 compared to the previous day and 20.36 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 230,847, and the open interest was 260,256. The inventory was 59,013 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The closing price was 830.25 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 53,156 and an open interest of 214,762. The spread (near - month to far - month) was - 3.52, and the basis (spot - to - futures) was - 4.83 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 10,317, with a trading volume of 789,654 and an open interest of 336,864. The inventory was 39,682,786.18 (in troy ounces) [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,783.80 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holding was 23.77, and the iShare Gold ETF holding was 464.57 [1] Silver Market - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 10,317, with a trading volume of 789,654 and an open interest of 336,864. The inventory was 1,221,428 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: The closing price was 10,275 yuan/ten - gram, with a trading volume of 606,548 and an open interest of 5,348. The spread (near - month to far - month) was - 43, and the basis (spot - to - futures) was - 74 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 44.27 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 75,969 and an open interest of 134,910. The inventory was 526,748,211.09 (in troy ounces) [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 44.33 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holding was 15,469.12, and the PSLV Silver ETF holding was 6,132.75 [1] Other Markets - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was - 9.90 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 67.17 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 62.34 dollars/barrel [1] - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 79,920 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,993.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,155 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 802.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: The SHIBOR was 1.43 and 1.67. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was - 0.03, and the TIPS yield was 1.78 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.2351, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1013, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.3877 [1] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,821.8327, the S&P 500 was 6,656.92, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,223.32, the French CAC40 was 7,872.02, the German DAX was 23,611.33, the Nikkei 225 was 45,493.66, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3,407.31 [1] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to take partial profits on high - cost long positions at high prices and wait for price pull - backs to establish long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 880 - 930. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Various commodities in the futures market show different trends, including continued highs, oscillations, declines, and rebounds [2][5]. - Macroeconomic factors such as Fed policies, international political situations, and natural disasters impact commodity prices [8][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs, with a trend strength of 0. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 843.00, up 1.87% [2][6][7]. - **Silver**: Undergoes oscillatory adjustments, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces, with prices oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [2][12][14]. - **Zinc**: Experiences a slight decline, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][20]. - **Tin**: Ranges within an oscillatory band, with a trend strength of 0 [2][22][26]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillates within a range, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina oscillates weakly, with a trend strength of -1. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices oscillate at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures warehouse receipts increase, and market sentiment fluctuations should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0. Polysilicon's price declines on the disk, and there is a preference for short - term non - standard product shipments, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41][43]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations fluctuate, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][44]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Demand is weak, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][47][50]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Prices oscillate widely due to the game of capital sentiment, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations fluctuate, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][54][56]. - **Log**: Prices oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60]. - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: Short - term rebound, but medium - term weakness. MEG conducts a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][61]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Crude oil rebounds, providing support for international oils and fats [5][63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Argentina cancels the export tax on beans, and US soybeans oscillate weakly [5][63]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound from oversold conditions [5][65]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The sentiment in the soybean market recovers, and prices rebound and oscillate [5][65]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new grain [5][67]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the impact of "Hurricane Hagarsha" on sugarcane areas [5][69]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the transaction price of seed cotton [5][70]. - **Egg**: The peak season is not prosperous [5][72]. - **Live Pig**: It is in the stage of concentrated release of contradictions before the festival [5][73]. - **Peanut**: Prices oscillate [5][74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a sideways adjustment. Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate. Zinc will see a slight decline. The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price. Tin and aluminum will trade within a range. Alumina will trend weakly sideways, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost factors [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all increased, with daily increases of 1.87%, 1.69%, and 1.66% respectively. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2510 also rose, with daily increases of 3.50%, 3.09%, and 2.19% respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 23,071 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,974 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products changed. For example, the inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 0 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 10,819 kg [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold is 0, and that of silver is 1 [8]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,920 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.30%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.08%. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,994 US dollars, with a daily decrease of 0.08% [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 201 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,668 [10]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 2,166 tons, and the LME Copper inventory decreased by 400 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Copper was 8.19%, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the previous day [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.11%. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,900 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 0.05% [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 15,195 compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,947. The trading volume of LME Zinc increased by 938, and the open interest increased by 493 [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [14]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17,085 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.47%. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 1,999.5 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.17% [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 13,989 compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 3,336. The trading volume of LME Lead decreased by 146, and the open interest increased by 953 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 2,747 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1,700 tons [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [17]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 269,880 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.97%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.31%. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 34,270 US dollars, with a daily increase of 0.73% [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 12,188 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,060. The trading volume of LME Tin decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 182 tons, and the LME Tin inventory decreased by 5 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous day [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0 [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,685 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,877 yuan, a decrease of 57 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,280 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous day [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 4,581, and the open interest decreased by 10,619 [24]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 63.70 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 51.39 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons compared to the previous day [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, that of alumina is - 1, and that of aluminum alloy is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,730 yuan, a decrease of 670 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,890 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 13,200 compared to the previous day, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract increased by 402 [27]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved 2025 RKAB nickel ore production in Indonesia is 364 million tons. A nickel - iron smelting industrial park in Indonesia has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons per month [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [33].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - Zinc prices showed a slight decline, with the closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract down 1.11% to 21,845 yuan/ton, while the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was up 0.05% to 2,900 dollars/ton [1]. - Multiple Fed officials support shifting the inflation target from 2% to a range - based system, and with Powell's term ending next May, the market anticipates a structural change in the Fed under new leadership [2]. - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Prices**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract price decreased, while LME Zinc 3M electronic trading price slightly increased. The prices of related zinc products such as hot - dipped galvanized coils, zinc alloys, and zinc oxide also declined [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 15,195 lots to 125,331 lots, and its open interest increased by 9,947 lots to 140,372 lots. The trading volume of LME Zinc increased by 938 lots to 10,805 lots, and its open interest increased by 493 lots to 216,077 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premiums of Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin 0 zinc showed different changes, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased by 9.01 dollars/ton to 45.99 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory increased by 1,559 tons to 56,613 tons, while LME Zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons. The LME zinc注销仓单 decreased by 500 tons to 14,950 tons, and the LME off - warrant (T + 3) increased by 591 tons to 13,727 tons [1]. [News] - Multiple Fed officials including理事米兰, 鲍曼, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic support using an inflation target range instead of the current 2% precise target. The issue is still under discussion within the Fed despite the exclusion in the August five - year policy framework assessment [2].