债 券 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 证 券 研 究 报 告 - 2025 年 12 月 18 日 30Y 国债的"前世今生"：供需结构、 定价权迁移与曲线重定价 ⚫ 30Y 国债定价权发生了三次迁移，30Y 国债"资产荒"和 30Y 国债流动性改善是驱动定 价权转移的逻辑主线。 ⚫ 前世：2022 年之前 30Y 国债关注度不高。 ◼ 2022 年之前，30Y 国债供给规模远低于 10Y 国债，流动性不强，主要买入力量为 保险公司。 ◼ 交易盘对 30Y 国债参与不多，当债市未形成一致性的向上或向下方向时，决定配置 盘对 30Y 国债买入力量的重要因素在于静 ...

Core Viewpoint - The breakthrough in AI technology starting in 2024 is expected to accelerate global CSP CAPEX, with significant growth projected for both North America and domestic markets in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: CSP CAPEX and Market Growth - North America's four major CSPs are projected to have a combined CAPEX of approximately $340 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 49% [2]. - The five major CSPs in China are expected to have a combined CAPEX of about 428 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 69% [2]. - The domestic diesel power generation market is estimated to reach 12.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53%, with a projected market size of 18.2 billion yuan by 2028 and a CAGR of 22% from 2024 to 2028 [1][2]. Group 2: Diesel Power Generation Market Dynamics - The diesel power generation market in China is currently dominated by foreign and joint venture companies, which account for 83% of the market, while domestic companies hold only 17% [3]. - There is significant potential for domestic companies to replace foreign products, as they have been accumulating technology through joint ventures and acquisitions [3]. - The current global demand for diesel power generation is surging, with foreign manufacturers facing tight delivery schedules, leading to rising prices for diesel power generation products [3]. Group 3: Key Companies and Segments - Key players in the engine segment include Weichai Power (000338.SZ) and Yuchai International (CYD.US) [4]. - In the generator set segment, notable companies are Weichai Heavy Machinery (000880.SZ), KOTAI Power (300153.SZ), and Taihao Technology (600590.SH) [4]. - Suppliers of engine components include Tianrun Industrial (002283.SZ) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant gains on August 25, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 2%, reaching its highest level since 2021, driven by positive external liquidity conditions and strong inflows from mainland investors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by over 2%, marking a new high since 2021 [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF gained 3.78%, with a year-to-date increase of 29% [1] - Year-to-date net inflows into Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 956.825 billion, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, setting a historical record [1] Group 2: Fund Flows - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (159742) saw a net inflow of HKD 574 million over the past 20 days, with a total year-to-date net inflow of HKD 1.28 billion, bringing its latest scale to HKD 2.909 billion [1] - Southbound capital has significantly increased, indicating a strong demand for Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 3: Key Factors - Three major factors influencing the Hong Kong stock market include breakthroughs in AI technology catalyzing tech growth, expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts attracting foreign capital, and substantial room for increased allocation from mainland investors [1] - The scarcity of assets in the Hong Kong market is expected to attract additional capital inflows, with a structural focus on the Hang Seng Tech Index [1]

Market Performance - The A-share market has seen significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly 10-year high on August 18, 2023 [2] - The major stock index futures also experienced substantial increases, with the CSI 1000 index futures rising by 24% year-to-date [2][6] Policy Impact - Recent policy measures, including the new "National Nine Articles" and capital market reforms, have contributed to market stability and attracted long-term capital [3][4] - The People's Bank of China has signaled a potential reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, enhancing market risk appetite [2][5] Capital Inflows - There has been a notable increase in new A-share accounts, with 1.9636 million new accounts opened in July, reflecting a 19% month-over-month increase and a 71% year-over-year increase [6] - Institutional investors, particularly insurance funds, have been actively increasing their holdings in high-dividend assets, contributing to a stable market environment [3][4] Sector Performance - The CSI 1000 index has outperformed other indices, driven by strong performance in sectors such as technology and healthcare, which are benefiting from government support and favorable economic conditions [7][8] - Economic data for July showed positive trends, including a 6.7% year-over-year increase in total goods imports and exports, indicating resilience in foreign trade [8] Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly focusing on strategies involving index futures, with a preference for the CSI 1000 index futures due to its structural advantages and growth potential [9][12] - Different strategies are being employed by institutional and individual investors, with institutions focusing on hedging existing gains while individuals leverage futures for potential high returns [11][12]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.64% [1] - Over 2,200 stocks in the two markets experienced gains [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (3.29%), Steel (2.59%), and Pharmaceutical & Biological (2.06%) [2] - The sectors with the largest declines were Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, Banking, Beauty and Personal Care, Light Industry Manufacturing, and Environmental Protection [2] Key Factors - The Communication sector saw strong performance due to overseas companies reaching historical highs and the potential benefits for domestic computing power supply chains [3] - The Steel sector benefited from "anti-involution" policies that optimized supply-demand dynamics, alongside increased demand from infrastructure and manufacturing [3] - The Pharmaceutical & Biological sector was boosted by agreements with foreign companies for exclusive rights and licenses, creating potential value [3] - The Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector faced challenges from declining pig prices and rising feed costs [3] - The Banking sector was pressured by rapid convergence of futures spreads, reflecting risk-hedging strategies that involved selling bank stocks [3] - The Beauty and Personal Care sector declined due to tightening regulations and a shift in investment from consumer sectors to high-tech sectors [3] Future Outlook - The A-share market is expected to see a combination of policy and industrial upgrades driving continuous style rotation [4] - The cyclical sectors may experience valuation recovery due to "anti-involution" policies and increased infrastructure investment [4] - The technology sector could benefit from breakthroughs in AI technology, changes in the semiconductor industry cycle, and catalysts from mid-year performance reports [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a barbell strategy focusing on dividends and micro-cap stocks, which is expected to continue outperforming in a macro environment characterized by low interest rates and ample liquidity. The long-term strategic allocation center for dividends and micro-cap stocks is around 70:30, effectively reducing drawdowns and enhancing returns [2][6][49]. - In the first half of 2025, the report identifies strong trend sectors that have not yet overheated, suggesting attention towards city commercial banks in the dividend sector, retail pharmacy and chemical pharmaceuticals in the healthcare sector, and other agricultural processing, express delivery, and specialized retail markets in the consumer sector [7][54]. Group 2 - The report notes that the broad market indices, such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500, have been in a prolonged sideways movement with low volatility, while thematic rotations have accelerated. Key themes include AI technology breakthroughs, gold price fluctuations due to tariff disturbances, and the performance of new consumption leaders driven by globalization [4][20]. - The report highlights that active equity funds have outperformed passive index funds, with active equity funds yielding approximately 5.5% compared to 2.6% for passive index funds as of June 18, 2025. The report also notes significant inflows into money market funds and mixed bond funds, reflecting a shift towards lower-risk investments in a declining interest rate environment [5][24][29].

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry performed well this week, particularly in the innovative drug sector, with a successful policy tilt towards innovative drugs and a success rate of over 90% in the 2024 medical insurance negotiations [1] - The global sales of ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) drugs have surpassed $10.4 billion, indicating significant market growth driven by technological advancements [1] - The CXO (Contract Research Organization) sector is experiencing continuous growth in overseas orders, with a domestic turning point expected soon, driven by demand for ADC and peptide drugs [1] Group 2 - The traditional Chinese medicine sector remains stable, with market attention on the progress of companies in cross-border innovative drug development and the impact of centralized procurement policies [1] - The medical device sector is seeing valuation recovery among quality companies, with recommendations to focus on high growth opportunities in Q3 [1] - The industry is accelerating its development through three driving forces: technological breakthroughs, accelerated internationalization, and policy support [1]

Group 1: IPO Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange welcomed three IPOs on June 10: Rongda Technology, New Qian'an, and MetaLight, with the IPO profit effect still ongoing [1][11] - MetaLight experienced a significant drop of over 30% on its first trading day, while Rongda Technology and New Qian'an saw increases of over 40% and 20%, respectively [1][11] - The subscription ratios for institutional investors were relatively low, with MetaLight at 2.49 times, and Rongda Technology and New Qian'an below 1 time [9][10] Group 2: Company Profiles - **Rongda Technology**: A global supplier of automatic identification and data collection (AIDC) devices, with projected revenues of approximately 348.7 million and 350.1 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively [4][6] - **New Qian'an**: A leading manufacturer of food-grade glycine and sucralose, with a global market share of approximately 5.1% in sales volume and 3.1% in sales revenue for food-grade glycine in 2023 [5][6] - **MetaLight**: Operates a mobile app "Che Lai Le," providing real-time bus arrival information, with revenues projected to grow from 135.4 million in 2022 to 206.1 million in 2024 [8][9] Group 3: Market Trends - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a significant increase in fundraising, with total IPO proceeds exceeding 77.6 billion HKD in 2023, a more than sevenfold increase compared to the previous year [12][15] - The "new share" profit effect is evident, with 31 new stocks listed this year, of which only 9 experienced a decline on their first day [13][15] - The overall sentiment in the market has improved due to advancements in AI technology, leading to increased participation from both institutional and individual investors [15][16]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a significant increase in activity, with total fundraising exceeding 760 billion HKD this year, a more than sevenfold increase compared to the same period last year [1][2] - Notable companies such as CATL and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical have completed their listings in May, contributing to a record high in fundraising since March 2021 [2] - As of May 31, 2023, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange welcomed 28 new listings, raising a total of 773.6 billion HKD, surpassing the total fundraising amount for the entire previous year [2] Group 2 - Three core factors driving the recovery of the Hong Kong IPO market include advancements in AI technology, improved liquidity due to foreign capital inflows, and a more pronounced profit-making effect from IPOs attracting both institutional and retail investors [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has implemented reforms to attract more quality companies, such as lowering the market capitalization threshold for specialized technology companies and optimizing the IPO pricing process [4] - There is a rich pipeline of IPO projects, with 156 companies having submitted applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, including over 40 A-share companies [4] Group 3 - Investment firms are actively recommending their portfolio companies to pursue listings in Hong Kong, anticipating a sustained trend in IPO activity for at least the next 12 months [5][6] - The current market environment provides a relatively quick liquidity exit for companies, although there may be significant variations in expected returns depending on the sector and company performance [6]

Group 1: IPO Market Overview - The number of companies applying for IPOs in Hong Kong is increasing, with 130 applications currently under review as of April 30, and 19 companies already listed [1][2] - In May alone, 8 companies have submitted applications, with 4 companies applying on May 9 [2][3] Group 2: Featured Companies - Tongshifu, a new consumption company, ranks first in China's copper cultural products market with a market share of 35% and an average online transaction value exceeding RMB 750 [3][4] - Zhejing Electronics, a hard technology company, has seen a 3-fold increase in solution delivery from FY2022 to FY2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 64.3% [4][5] - Zhongding Intelligent, a provider of smart logistics solutions, ranks fourth in the overall market and first in the lithium-ion battery sector in China [5] - Fuyou Payment, a digital payment technology platform, ranks eighth in China's comprehensive digital payment service providers with a market share of 0.8% [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a resurgence, with 17 companies listed in Q1 2024, raising a total of HKD 18.7 billion, nearly four times the amount from Q1 2023 [7][8] - The upcoming IPO of CATL is expected to raise approximately HKD 30.7 billion, potentially surpassing the previous record set by Midea Group [7][8] - Factors driving the recovery of the IPO market include advancements in AI technology, improved liquidity due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and a noticeable profit-making effect from new listings [8]