食品饮料行业 超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/07/04-2025/07/17） 内部结构分化，关注中报业绩反馈 2025 年 7 月 18 日 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年7月4日-2025年7月17日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体上 涨0.92%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第二十二位，跑输同期沪深300指 数约0.75个百分点。细分板块中，所有细分板块均跑输沪深300指数。其 中，白酒板块上涨1.56%，板块涨幅最大；零食板块跌幅最大，为-3.25%。 ◼ 行业周观点：内部结构分化，关注中报业绩反馈。白酒板块：水井坊、 酒鬼酒发布2025年中期业绩预告，业绩同比均出现不同程度下滑，主要 系二季度政商务宴请等消费场景持续承压，白酒修复节奏放缓，预计二 季度白酒业绩面临压力测试。6月17日晚，人民网发布评论称"禁止违规 吃喝，不是吃喝都违规"；6月19日，新华社发文称"整治违规吃喝，不 是一阵风不能一刀切"，对5月18日以来的部分现象进行纠偏。此外，茅 台经销商亦通过限制向电商、批发市场、省外等部分渠道供货积极稳价。 纠偏后对于白酒预期或将边际缓和，可关注下半年白酒基数走低下的需 求恢复情况，中长期需要进一 ...

Group 1 - Fumiao Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement with New Hu Textile to advance technology development and market expansion in the textile dyeing industry [1] - Fumiao Technology's shareholder, Feixiang Chemical, transferred 6.1076 million shares at a price of 16.38 yuan per share, representing 5% of the company's total shares [1] - Huaitian Thermal Power was recommended as the owner of a 700,000 kW wind power project, aligning with local government policies for investment strategy [1][2] Group 2 - Beiyinmei's controlling shareholder applied for pre-restructuring due to liquidity issues, holding 1.33 billion shares, 98.85% of which are pledged or frozen [3] - *ST Songfa's subsidiary signed a contract for the construction of two LNG dual-fuel oil tankers, expected to positively impact future performance [4] - Hongming Technology terminated a major asset restructuring plan to acquire 83% of Shenzhen Chisu Automation Equipment due to failure to reach an agreement [18] Group 3 - Guoxiang Technology's controlling shareholder plans to transfer 4 million shares at a price of 44.14 yuan per share, representing 5% of the total shares [20] - Longpin Puzhi's controlling shareholder is set to change to Changjiang Guomao after transferring 72.239 million shares at 12.42 yuan per share, totaling 1.046 billion yuan [28] - Hanwujing adjusted its 2025 fundraising plan to raise up to 3.985 billion yuan for AI chip platform projects and working capital [31]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of 33.80 to 35.60 CNY per share, indicating a potential premium of 23% to 30% over the current stock price of 27.38 CNY [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading platform-based dairy enterprise, transitioning towards high-quality growth and dividend-focused investment strategies. It has shifted from prioritizing market share to focusing on profitability, with a commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 70% [1][13]. - The dairy industry is experiencing a stable recovery in demand, with a potential supply-demand inflection point expected by late 2025. The industry is projected to reach a scale of 611.7 billion CNY by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.61% from 2024 to 2028 [2][4]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage through its national brand and channel foundation, leading to cost efficiency and superior profitability compared to peers. It is actively expanding its product lines, including liquid milk, milk powder, and cheese, to sustain growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as the largest dairy producer in China, achieving over 100 billion CNY in revenue since 2021. It has transitioned its strategy to prioritize profit over market share, focusing on high-value products [1][24]. Market Trends - The dairy market is entering a mature phase, with a projected retail value of 560 billion CNY in 2024. The demand for liquid milk is expected to grow, while other segments like yogurt and dairy beverages face challenges [2][38]. Competitive Position - The company maintains a strong market position with significant brand recognition and distribution channels. It has consistently outperformed competitors in terms of profitability and market share, particularly in the liquid milk and milk powder segments [3][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 119.34 billion CNY, 122.50 billion CNY, and 125.44 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.31 billion CNY, 12.22 billion CNY, and 13.15 billion CNY [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [3] Core Views - The company is a leading organic raw milk producer in China, with a fundamental reversal expected [3] - The company has obtained dual certification for organic standards from China and the EU, making it a prominent player in the organic milk market [6] - The company operates across the entire dairy value chain, from pasture planting to raw milk production and high-end liquid milk processing [6] - The high-end organic milk market is anticipated to continue expanding due to rising consumer demand for healthy food options [6] - The company benefits from a unique geographical advantage in Inner Mongolia, recognized as a prime milk source region [6] - A rebound in milk and beef prices is expected to enhance the company's fundamental performance [6] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,383.63 million RMB - 2024: 3,126.18 million RMB - 2025E: 2,989.43 million RMB - 2026E: 3,207.90 million RMB - 2027E: 3,447.21 million RMB - The expected growth rates show a decline in 2024 and 2025, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is -47.31 million RMB, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 [4] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2026 is estimated at 5.51, significantly lower than the average P/E of comparable companies at 9.6 [6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Jiahe Foods (605300) has shown a positive stock performance with a closing price of 13.99 yuan as of July 11, 2025, reflecting a 1.45% increase from the previous week [1] Company Announcements - Jiahe Foods announced the use of 50 million yuan of idle raised funds to purchase structured deposits from China Merchants Bank, specifically a 92-day product with an expected annual yield of 1.00% to 1.80% [1] - The decision to manage idle funds was approved by the company's board and supervisory committee, as well as the annual general meeting of shareholders [1] - The total amount raised by the company was approximately 724.99 million yuan, with a net amount of about 711.09 million yuan after deducting issuance costs [1] - The company has implemented measures to ensure the safety of the funds, including compliance with laws, tracking product investments, and oversight by independent directors and the audit committee [1] - As of the announcement date, the balance of temporarily idle raised funds under cash management was 450 million yuan, which is within the authorized range by shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for consumer goods remains weak in Q2 2025, with limited improvement on a month-over-month basis. The raw material costs for consumer goods companies are mostly at the bottom or in a downward trend, but competition in the industry remains intense, leading to minimal improvement in profitability [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The consumer goods sector is experiencing increased competition, particularly in beverages, where promotional activities are intensifying [1] - There is a noticeable divergence in growth among snack companies, indicating varying performance within the sector [1] - The dairy and catering supply chain segments are facing pressure on both demand and pricing [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The snack sector, characterized by new consumption trends, is identified as having the most potential for investment [1] - Within the beverage sector, tea drinks and functional beverages are expected to maintain high levels of prosperity [1] - The dairy sector shows signs of clear improvement from a profitability bottom [1]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The beverage market in China is large and exhibits steady growth, with the coconut water market experiencing rapid expansion. The market size for coconut water in mainland China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% from 2025 to 2029 [4] - IFBH, as a leading company in the industry, holds the top market share and is positioned to benefit from the industry's growth. With the rapid growth of the coconut water market, IFBH's performance is expected to maintain a high growth rate [4] Summary by Sections Beverage and Soft Drink Market - The global ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to grow from $934.5 billion in 2019 to $1,131.7 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.9%. By 2029, it is expected to reach $1,519.4 billion, with a CAGR of 6.1% [1] - The Greater China ready-to-drink beverage market is expected to grow from $119.2 billion in 2019 to $138.4 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.0%, and is projected to reach $194.7 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.1% [1] Coconut Water Industry - The global coconut water beverage market is expected to grow from $251.67 million in 2019 to $498.92 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.7%. By 2029, it is projected to reach $845.69 million, with a CAGR of 11.1% [2] - In Greater China, the coconut water beverage market is expected to grow from $1.018 million in 2019 to $1.093 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 60.8%, and is projected to reach $2.651 million by 2029, with a CAGR of 19.4% [2] - The market in mainland China is expected to grow from $497,000 in 2019 to $1.018 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 82.9%, and is projected to reach $2.504 million by 2029, with a CAGR of 20.2% [2] IFBH Company Performance - IFBH successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 30, 2025, with a first-day stock price increase of 42.09% and a second-day increase of 20.38% [3] - For 2024, IFBH's revenue and net profit are projected to be $158 million and $33 million, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 80.29% and 98.85% [3] - The revenue breakdown for 2024 includes coconut water ($150.64 million), snacks ($4 million), coconut-related products ($3.09 million), and other beverages ($3.52 million), with coconut water accounting for 96% of total revenue [3]

Group 1 - Shengde Xintai won a bid for a thermal power steel pipe project worth approximately 217 million yuan, accounting for 8.15% of its audited revenue for 2024 [1] - High-speed Electric's subsidiary won a project for the Shanghai-Nanjing-Hefei high-speed railway, with a bid amount of 71.76 million yuan [1] - Cangge Mining's subsidiary received a construction permit for a lithium-boron mining project, with a construction area of 106,900 square meters [2] Group 2 - China Electric Power Construction signed a mining transportation project contract in Guinea worth approximately 5.063 billion yuan, with a total duration of about 72 months [3] - Guobang Pharmaceutical's subsidiary completed the registration of an equity investment fund focusing on strategic emerging industries [4] - Deshi Co. obtained two invention patents related to oil and gas field development [5][26] Group 3 - Xue Tian Salt Industry expects a significant decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a decline of 76.34% to 80.29% [6] - Rundu Co. received a drug registration certificate for moxifloxacin hydrochloride tablets, used for treating various bacterial infections [7] - China Nuclear Power reported a 15.65% increase in power generation in the first half of the year, with nuclear power generation up by 12.01% [8] Group 4 - Suqian Liansheng obtained two invention patents related to wastewater treatment methods [9] - Boshi Co. signed a 109 million yuan operation and maintenance service contract for solid product packaging [11] - *ST Sailong's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for torasemide injection, used for various medical conditions [13] Group 5 - North Bay Port reported a 10.95% increase in cargo throughput for the first half of 2025, with container throughput also showing growth [14] - Kaiwei Te expects a revenue increase of 56.17% to 90.87% for the first half of 2025 [15] - Wankai New Materials plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance on 60,000 tons of PET capacity, affecting overall performance [16] Group 6 - Haiwang Bio's HW130 injection successfully completed Phase I clinical trials, showing good safety and tolerability [19] - Zhenai Meijia received a total of 22.8 million yuan in compensation for land acquisition, which will significantly impact its 2025 performance [20] - Changyuan Electric reported a 23.58% decrease in power generation in June, with a notable decline in thermal power generation [21] Group 7 - Shouxiangu's subsidiary completed the registration of two health food products [22] - Kailun Co. announced the resignation of its deputy general manager and board secretary [23] - Xibu Muye reported a 2.15% year-on-year increase in fresh milk production in June [24] Group 8 - Deshi Co. obtained two invention patents related to oil and gas field development [26] - Jingwei Huikai plans to acquire a 12.44% stake in Nuo Si Micro for 149 million yuan [27] - Electric Alloy completed the registration of its subsidiary in Mexico [29] Group 9 - Meinuohua expects a net profit increase of 142.84% to 174.52% for the first half of 2025 [30] - Guizhou Moutai repurchased approximately 3.38 million shares, accounting for 0.2692% of its total share capital [31][32] - Warner Pharmaceutical received approval for the listing application of a raw material drug for treating respiratory diseases [34] Group 10 - Yuan Dong Bio's independent director is under investigation for serious violations [35] - Dash Intelligent signed a contract for a smart project worth 11.88 million yuan [36] - Dayou Energy plans to transfer 586,500 tons of coal production capacity replacement indicators [37] Group 11 - Foton Motor reported a 150.96% increase in new energy vehicle sales in the first half of 2025 [39] - Renfu Pharmaceutical's shareholder plans to increase its stake by 1% to 2% [40] - Zongshen Power expects a net profit increase of 70% to 100% for the first half of 2025 [42] Group 12 - Yingboer plans to sell its wholly-owned subsidiary for 239 million yuan [44] - Changan Automobile reported a 1.59% increase in total vehicle sales in the first half of 2025 [46] - Fulian Precision signed a cooperation framework agreement with Sichuan Development Longmang [48] Group 13 - Nengte Technology plans to repurchase shares worth 300 million to 500 million yuan [50] - Longsoft Technology's controlling shareholder donated 3.43% of the company's shares [51] - Data Port's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2% [52]

Group 1 - Fengcai Technology is conducting an H-share issuance with a maximum price of 120.50 HKD per share, aiming to raise funds for its specialized chip business [1] - The global offering consists of 16.3 million shares, with 1.63 million shares available for public offering in Hong Kong [1] - Zijin Mining plans to acquire the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan for 1.2 billion USD, enhancing its resource portfolio [1][2] Group 2 - Mindray Medical's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 5 million shares, approximately 0.41% of the total share capital, due to personal funding needs [3] - Degute is planning to acquire control of Haowei Technology through a combination of cash and share issuance, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [4] - New Dairy's controlling shareholder intends to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the total share capital, also for funding purposes [5] Group 3 - Yueyang Xinchang has resumed production after completing maintenance on its main production facilities, positively impacting its operations [6] - Chengdu Xian Dao has terminated its major asset restructuring plan due to failure to reach agreement on key terms [7] - Maglev Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the total share capital for personal financial arrangements [9] Group 4 - Zhongyan Dadi announced a cash dividend of 2.82 CNY per 10 shares and a capital increase of 3.99 shares per 10 shares [10] - Yunda Co. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.6 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 47.22 million CNY [12] - Victory Co. intends to distribute a cash dividend of 0.42 CNY per 10 shares, amounting to around 36.06 million CNY [13] Group 5 - Shagang Group has invested 2.67 billion CNY in financial products while planning to use up to 8 billion CNY of idle funds for further investments [14] - Jiuyuan Yinhai's subsidiary won an 8.43 million CNY project contract, constituting a related party transaction [15] - China Railway Signal & Communication has announced the resignation of a board member due to personal reasons [16] Group 6 - China Rare Earth clarified that recent management changes have not affected its operations, ensuring stability in production [17] - Qixiang Tengda plans to conduct routine maintenance on its 60,000-ton acetone plant for 60 days to enhance operational safety [19] - ST King Kong's subsidiary signed a 399 million CNY contract for computing power services, indicating growth in its service offerings [20] Group 7 - Ziguang Guowei repurchased 775,500 shares for approximately 49.62 million CNY, reflecting confidence in its market position [22] - Qin Port's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2% of the total share capital for development needs [22] - Longqi Technology has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, expanding its market presence [24]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The focus is on the A-share market and its potential for significant growth in the third quarter of 2025, particularly regarding the Shanghai Composite Index and various sectors within the market [1][5][21]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The A-share market is expected to experience a breakthrough rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,450 points, indicating a potential new high since October 2022 [1][4]. 2. **Free Cash Flow Improvement**: There is a notable improvement in free cash flow among listed companies, driven by enhanced operating cash flow and a systematic decline in capital expenditures. This trend is expected to be confirmed in the upcoming half-year reports [1][6]. 3. **External Factors**: The reduction of external headwinds, such as geopolitical conflicts and the U.S.-China tariff war, is anticipated to alleviate market uncertainties, thereby supporting market growth [1][7]. 4. **Sector Performance**: Key sectors expected to perform well include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), midstream manufacturing, and consumer services, with specific mentions of semiconductors, automotive, and food processing [19][27]. 5. **Profitability Trends**: Industrial enterprises are showing signs of profitability improvement, with revenue growth in various sectors, although profit margins remain under pressure due to price declines [13][14]. 6. **Investment Recommendations**: Recommended sectors for July 2025 include computers, electronics, machinery, biopharmaceuticals, defense, and non-ferrous metals, based on quantitative scoring and performance forecasts [21][22][23][24][25][26][27]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Data from January to May 2025 indicates a slowdown in production growth, particularly in midstream manufacturing, while consumer sectors like home appliances and communication equipment are performing well [9][10]. 2. **Inventory and Contract Liabilities**: High contract liability growth in sectors such as defense, basic chemicals, and electronics suggests potential for continued performance improvement [17][18]. 3. **Market Correlation**: There is a strong correlation between market performance and industry fundamentals, with high-performing sectors aligning with positive financial indicators [19]. 4. **Geopolitical Context**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding defense spending and military trade, is influencing market dynamics and sector recommendations [27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the expected market trends, sector performance, and underlying economic indicators that could influence investment decisions in the A-share market.