智通财经1月30日讯（记者 吴雨其）过去几年，港股经历了从情绪主导的深度调整，到在政策支持与盈 利预期修复下逐步回到相对合理估值区间的过程。指数一轮反弹之后，"便宜"不再是对港股的唯一标 签，市场重新回到盈利、分红和产业结构本身的博弈：一端是高股息、强现金流的红利资产，另一端是 受全球流动性和主题情绪影响更大的成长与科技板块，冰火两重天的特征越来越鲜明。 与此同时，全球AI浪潮正在重塑资本流向与产业格局。从美国大型科技公司，到东北亚的半导体、内 存与高端制造，再到与中国内需、互联网和创新药相关的上市公司，围绕算力、算法与应用场景的竞争 持续升温。亚洲市场在这条产业链中的位置愈发关键，如何在估值不再极端低位的阶段，沿着AI产业 链与区域分工重新审视港股与亚洲资产的性价比，正在成为机构投资者的共同问题。 在这样的背景下，近日，智通财经记者采访了国海富兰克林基金QDII投资总监徐成，他对影响港股后 续表现的关键变量、港股下一阶段的主要机会，以及亚太AI产业链投资等话题进行了系统交流。从他 的回答中，既能看到他对港股估值与盈利的冷静拆解，也能看到他在韩国、中国台湾、日本、港股与A 股之间来回穿梭、顺着AI产业链逐层挖 ...

具体而言，铁路旅游化改造、邮轮游艇发展等将拓宽文旅消费场景，优质的旅游及演艺龙头公司有望受 益于市场扩容与产品创新;入境消费便利化，发展演出、体育赛事、情绪式体验式服务有望拉动酒店餐 饮等配套消费;演出审批优化、汽车后市场试点，为相关服务领域的规模化、专业化发展提供政策支 持。当前文旅促消费政策初见成效，如河南发放1.3亿元文旅住宿消费券，带动消费近5亿元。 看好休闲旅游需求释放，关注假期增多平滑(春秋假、最长春节、多地发文鼓励2.5天休假模式)及优质供 给升级的带动效应 1)春节预订景气及政策刺激延续，飞猪显示截至1/29春节假期旅游/酒店预订量同比增长30+%/71%，航 旅纵横显示截至1/21春节机票日均预订量同比+22%;文旅部开启消费月系列活动，文旅部预计将举办约3 万场次文旅消费活动，发放超3.6亿元消费券等消费补贴;2)入境游延续较快增速，据移民管理局，2025 年入境游/免签入境游8,200/3,008万人次(同比+26.4%/49.5%)，该行预计，配套设施的完善将推动增量沉 淀与供给提质。 中金主要观点如下： 行业近况 2026年1月29日，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, indicating a favorable policy environment for new consumption growth [4][5] - Structural policies are expected to enhance consumer capacity through fiscal subsidies, tax incentives, and social security improvements, particularly benefiting the elderly consumption sector [4] - The new consumption sectors, including service consumption, digital consumption, and green consumption, are set to receive significant policy support for development [4] Group 2 - Tax data shows strong growth momentum in new consumption areas, with retail sales of communication devices and home appliances increasing by 20.3% and 26.5% year-on-year, respectively [4] - The "event economy" and "silver economy" are gaining traction, with sports services and elderly care services seeing year-on-year growth of 29.7% and 33.6% [5] - Cultural tourism consumption is also thriving, with revenues from artistic performances and travel services growing by 15.6% and 10.8% year-on-year [6] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market offers a more balanced distribution of new consumption sectors, making it a focal point for investment in consumer stocks [7] - The newly revised CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index aims to enhance precision and representation by focusing on 50 consumer-related securities [9] - The index upgrade includes stricter liquidity requirements and weight limits for individual stocks, ensuring better representation of the new consumption sector [12][13]

Group 1 - The A-share market is seeing a strong performance in consumer stocks, particularly in retail, duty-free, leisure services, airport, tourism, food, and dairy sectors [1] - Notable stocks that have hit the daily limit include China Duty Free Group, Guoguang Chain, Dongbai Group, Yingxin Development, Jinjiang Hotel, Overseas Chinese Town A, Sanyuan Foods, Huifa Foods, and Barbie Foods [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics released positive inflation data for October, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking a shift from decline to growth [1] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing measures to boost consumption, including providing financial subsidies for personal consumption loans and loans to key industry operators [1]

Core Points - Shanghai is launching a new initiative to promote the "ticket root economy" starting from October 15, allowing consumers to receive discounts at various merchants by presenting event tickets [1][6] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance service consumption in Shanghai and support its development as an international consumption center [1][6] Group 1: Initiative Details - The "ticket root" consumption trial will run from October 18 to November 15, featuring a list of popular events including concerts and sports competitions [1][2] - The first batch of participating merchants includes 97 businesses located near event venues, offering discounts ranging from 60% to 95% [2][4] - Discounts are set by merchants voluntarily and can be adjusted in real-time through a platform, enhancing market-driven participation [4][6] Group 2: Operational Mechanism - Consumers will receive a "ticket root code" automatically via Alipay after purchasing tickets, which can be used for discounts at participating merchants [4][6] - The discount period is set for three days before and after the event, allowing flexibility for both local and visiting consumers [4][6] - The initiative aims to streamline the connection between events and local businesses, moving from a manual to a digital system for easier access [6][7] Group 3: Future Expansion Plans - The program is expected to expand its reach by integrating with major ticketing platforms and payment systems, covering 80%-90% of events in Shanghai [7][8] - The long-term vision includes attracting not only local consumers but also tourists from other provinces and countries, thereby boosting overall consumption [8] - The goal is to create a unified system that enhances consumer experience and drives economic growth through the "ticket root economy" [8]

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: PB-ROE-50 **Model Construction Idea**: The model combines Price-to-Book ratio (PB) and Return on Equity (ROE) to construct a stock selection strategy[25] **Model Construction Process**: The PB-ROE-50 model selects stocks based on their PB and ROE metrics. Stocks with favorable PB and ROE values are included in the portfolio. The model uses a monthly rebalancing approach to optimize the portfolio[25][26] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates positive excess returns in most stock pools, indicating its effectiveness in capturing value and profitability factors[25][26] - **Model Name**: Institutional Research Tracking Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy leverages institutional research activities (public and private) to identify stocks with potential excess returns[27] **Model Construction Process**: The strategy tracks stocks that are frequently researched by public and private institutions. Stocks with higher research frequency are included in the portfolio. The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to reflect updated research trends[27][28] **Model Evaluation**: The strategy shows consistent positive excess returns, suggesting that institutional research activities can be a reliable indicator for stock selection[27][28] - **Model Name**: Block Trade Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy identifies stocks with high block trade activity and low volatility to construct a portfolio[31] **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on two criteria: high block trade transaction ratios and low 6-day transaction volatility. The portfolio is rebalanced monthly to maintain these characteristics[31][32] **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has mixed results, with negative excess returns in the recent 2-week period, but positive performance over the year[31][32] - **Model Name**: Directed Issuance Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy focuses on stocks involved in directed issuance events to capture potential investment opportunities[36] **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on the announcement date of directed issuance events. The strategy considers market capitalization, rebalancing frequency, and position control to construct the portfolio[36][37] **Model Evaluation**: The strategy shows negative excess returns in the recent 2-week period, raising questions about its effectiveness under current market conditions[36][37] Model Backtesting Results - **PB-ROE-50 Model**: - Excess return in CSI 500: -0.82% - Excess return in CSI 800: 1.45% - Excess return in the entire market: 0.75%[25][26] - **Institutional Research Tracking Strategy**: - Public research excess return: 1.03% - Private research excess return: 1.89%[27][28] - **Block Trade Strategy**: - Excess return relative to CSI All Index: -0.57%[31][32] - **Directed Issuance Strategy**: - Excess return relative to CSI All Index: -1.13%[36][37] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Liquidity Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the liquidity of stocks to identify those with higher trading activity[20] **Factor Construction Process**: The liquidity factor is calculated using metrics such as turnover rate and trading volume. Stocks with higher liquidity scores are assigned positive weights[20] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows positive returns in the recent 2-week period, indicating its effectiveness in capturing market liquidity trends[20] - **Factor Name**: Leverage Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the financial leverage of companies to identify those with higher risk-adjusted returns[20] **Factor Construction Process**: The leverage factor is derived from financial ratios such as debt-to-equity and interest coverage. Companies with optimal leverage levels are favored[20] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates positive returns, suggesting its utility in identifying financially stable companies[20] - **Factor Name**: Profitability Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the profitability of companies to identify those with strong earnings performance[20] **Factor Construction Process**: The profitability factor is calculated using metrics such as ROE, ROA, and net profit margin. Stocks with higher profitability metrics are given positive weights[20] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows positive returns, indicating its effectiveness in identifying profitable companies[20] - **Factor Name**: Valuation Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative valuation of stocks to identify undervalued opportunities[20] **Factor Construction Process**: The valuation factor is derived from metrics such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Book (P/B) ratios. Stocks with lower valuation scores are assigned positive weights[20] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates positive returns, supporting its use in identifying undervalued stocks[20] - **Factor Name**: Non-linear Market Capitalization Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the non-linear relationship between market capitalization and stock returns[20] **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is constructed using a non-linear transformation of market capitalization data. Stocks with optimal market capitalization are assigned positive weights[20] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows positive returns, indicating its ability to capture market capitalization trends effectively[20] - **Factor Name**: Beta Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market movements[20] **Factor Construction Process**: The beta factor is calculated using historical return data and market indices. Stocks with lower beta values are assigned positive weights[20] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows negative returns, suggesting its limited effectiveness in the current market environment[20] - **Factor Name**: Residual Volatility Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the idiosyncratic risk of stocks to identify those with stable performance[20] **Factor Construction Process**: The residual volatility factor is derived from the standard deviation of residuals in a regression model of stock returns against market returns[20] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows negative returns, indicating its limited utility in the recent market conditions[20] - **Factor Name**: Growth Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the growth potential of companies based on their financial performance[20] **Factor Construction Process**: The growth factor is calculated using metrics such as revenue growth and earnings growth. Stocks with higher growth rates are assigned positive weights[20] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows negative returns, suggesting its limited effectiveness in the current market environment[20] Factor Backtesting Results - **Liquidity Factor**: Return: 0.36%[20] - **Leverage Factor**: Return: 0.34%[20] - **Profitability Factor**: Return: 0.27%[20] - **Valuation Factor**: Return: 0.18%[20] - **Non-linear Market Capitalization Factor**: Return: 0.18%[20] - **Market Capitalization Factor**: Return: 0.11%[20] - **Beta Factor**: Return: -0.65%[20] - **Residual Volatility Factor**: Return: -0.55%[20] - **Growth Factor**: Return: -0.21%[20]

Core Insights - The concept of "slow living" and "light wellness" is gaining popularity among citizens and tourists in Chongqing, leading to a transformation in the leisure consumption market [1] - Diverse leisure business formats, from specialty massages to tea experiences, are enriching the consumer landscape in Chongqing [1] - The city is focusing on developing itself as an international consumption center, emphasizing night-time activities and experiences [5] Group 1: Leisure Consumption Trends - The rise of "slow living" is reflected in the increasing preference for leisurely activities such as visiting cafes and massage parlors [1] - Traditional areas like Luzumiao are becoming prime locations for leisure businesses, offering unique experiences that blend local culture with professional services [1] - A massage parlor in Luzumiao emphasizes the use of experienced therapists to provide authentic and tailored services to meet local demands [1] Group 2: Cultural and Culinary Experiences - A tea shop in the traditional style area of Shibanti provides a tranquil space for customers to enjoy tea and traditional dishes, promoting a "slow down" experience [3] - The tea shop offers unique dishes like tea rice, which combines local tea with rice and vegetables, appealing to health-conscious consumers and younger demographics [3] - The shop also serves as a cultural space, providing customers with insights into the history and preparation of traditional dishes [3] Group 3: Night-time Economy - Chongqing is actively cultivating its identity as an international consumption center by enhancing its night-time economy through various activities and experiences [5] - The focus on "five nights" lifestyle elements—night taste, night wellness, night appreciation, night entertainment, and night shopping—aims to create a vibrant night-time consumer culture [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the weekly data of green bonds from August 11 - August 15, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of the top 30 individual bonds [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - 10 new green bonds were issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of about 1.3131 billion yuan, an increase of 221.8 million yuan from the previous week [1]. - The issuance terms are mostly 3 years; issuers include local state - owned enterprises, central state - owned enterprises, central enterprise subsidiaries, and central financial enterprises [1]. - The issuer's main credit ratings are AAA and AA+; issuers are from Beijing, Guangdong, Guangxi, Henan, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia [1]. - The types of issued bonds include ultra - short - term financing bills, ABNs from the Dealer Association, commercial bank ordinary bonds, medium - term notes, private corporate bonds, and general corporate bonds [1]. Secondary Market Trading - The weekly trading volume of green bonds totaled 5.78 billion yuan, an increase of 1.04 billion yuan from the previous week [2]. - By bond type, the top three in trading volume are non - financial corporate credit bonds (2.61 billion yuan), financial institution bonds (2.13 billion yuan), and interest - rate bonds (630 million yuan) [2]. - By issuance term, green bonds with a term of less than 3 years had the highest trading volume, accounting for about 78.96%, indicating continuous market popularity [2]. - By issuer's industry, the top three industries in trading volume are finance (2.47 billion yuan), public utilities (1.2 billion yuan), and transportation equipment (180 million yuan) [2]. - By issuer's region, the top three regions in trading volume are Beijing (1.75 billion yuan), Guangdong (670 million yuan), and Hebei (510 million yuan) [2]. Valuation Deviation of the Top 30 Individual Bonds - The overall deviation of the weekly average trading price valuation of green bonds is not large, with the discount trading range smaller than the premium trading range, and the proportion of discount trading smaller than that of premium trading [3]. - Among the discount bonds, the top three discount rates are for 25 ShuiNeng G1 (- 0.7750%), 21 LinChuan Green Bond 02 (- 0.7466%), and 21 XinYi Green Bond (- 0.2536%), and the rest of the discount rates are within - 0.20%. The main industries of the issuers are finance, construction, and public utilities, and the implied ratings of ChinaBond are mainly AAA -, AA, and AA+ [3]. - Among the premium bonds, the top four premium rates are for 20 HuNan Bond 65 (0.9090%), 25 XiangYu JinXiang MTN003 (green) (0.7237%), 20 GuangDong Bond 05 (0.6806%), and 20 GuangDong Bond 16 (0.6433%), and the rest of the premium rates are within 0.60%. The main industries of the issuers are finance, public utilities, and transportation equipment, and the implied ratings of ChinaBond are mainly AA+, AA, and AAA - [3].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Leisure Index has shown significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of 16.34% and a recent monthly rise of 1.86% [2] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Leisure Index reported a value of 3001.95 points [1] - The index has increased by 8.25% over the past three months [2] - The index is based on a sample of companies from various sectors, including banking, transportation, resources, infrastructure, logistics, and leisure, reflecting the overall performance of different thematic stocks in the Hong Kong market [2] Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Kuaishou-W (11.02%), Tencent Holdings (10.37%), NetEase-S (9.58%), Baidu Group-SW (9.45%), Trip.com Group-S (9.27%), Yum China (8.7%), Meituan-W (7.73%), Galaxy Entertainment (5.88%), Bilibili-W (3.44%), and Sands China Ltd. (3.3%) [2] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [2] - The sector breakdown of the index holdings shows that leisure services account for 41.47%, digital media for 38.68%, cultural entertainment for 11.92%, alcohol for 6.84%, and marketing and advertising for 1.09% [2] Group 3: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [3] - Companies that are delisted or undergo mergers, acquisitions, or splits are handled according to specific calculation and maintenance guidelines [3]

Core Points - The China Securities Index Hong Kong 300 Leisure Index (H300 Leisure) reported a rise of 6.81% over the past month, 15.53% over the past three months, and 19.31% year-to-date [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in various themes such as banking, transportation, resources, infrastructure, logistics, and leisure, selected from the China Securities Index Hong Kong 300 [1] - The index's base date is December 31, 2004, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Index Holdings - The top ten weighted companies in the H300 Leisure Index are: Kuaishou-W (11.88%), Tencent Holdings (10.11%), NetEase-S (9.55%), Baidu Group-SW (9.36%), Trip.com Group-S (9.35%), Yum China (9.01%), Meituan-W (7.76%), Galaxy Entertainment (5.73%), Bilibili-W (3.46%), and Sands China Ltd. (3.11%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] Industry Composition - The industry composition of the H300 Leisure Index includes: Leisure Services (41.56%), Digital Media (39.23%), Cultural Entertainment (11.80%), Alcohol (6.30%), and Marketing & Advertising (1.11%) [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]