投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-26 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘溢价回落，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于上周末美国公布的 9 月非农就业数据显著差于预期，导致宏观情绪转弱。近期 OPEC 最新季度报告把三季度全球油市从"供不应求"直接翻转为"日过剩 50 万桶"，供应宽松预期放大。 目前油市偏弱的供 ...

品种晨会纪要 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-24 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前煤制甲醇装置亏损程度持续扩大，供应端收缩预期增强。同时临近冬季取暖需求旺 季，西南天然气制甲醇面临限气预期。当下国内港口库存依然高企，外部进口维持高 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol futures are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of being weak, a medium - term view of being volatile, and an intraday view of being strong. The overall reference view is a strong operation. After the previous sharp decline, the methanol futures have gradually digested the negative impact of the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The future downward space of domestic methanol futures may be limited, and the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Wednesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - For methanol 2601, the short - term is weak, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is strong, with a reference view of strong operation. The night - session decline of the 2601 contract on Tuesday slowed down, and the price slightly rose [1][5]. Driving Logic - After the previous sharp decline, the methanol futures have digested the negative impact of the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The loss of coal - to - methanol plants is increasing, and the supply - side contraction expectation is strengthening. There is an expectation of gas restrictions for southwest natural - gas - to - methanol plants due to the approaching winter heating season. However, domestic port inventories are still high, imports remain at a high level, and demand continues to be weak. With the loosening of supply - side expectations, the downward space of domestic methanol futures may be limited [5].

Group 1: Asset Overview - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have reversed, leading to volatile movements in gold and silver prices during the week of November 10-14, with the Nasdaq experiencing significant sell-offs [1] - The Brazilian IBOVESPA index has seen a monthly increase of 10% [1] Group 2: Investment Highlights - As of the week ending November 14, commodities have outperformed equities and bonds, with COMEX silver and Shanghai gold leading in gains. Oil prices have also risen, while global stock market performance has shown significant divergence [6][19] - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong, US, and Indian stocks has marginally decreased, indicating a weakening relationship [6][7] - The risk premium of A-shares relative to 10-year government bonds has increased, while the risk premium of US stocks relative to 10-year US Treasuries has decreased [9][12] Group 3: Equity Market Performance - Hong Kong and Brazilian stocks continue to rise, with the IBOVESPA up 10% over the past month. The global stock market overall increased by 0.4% as of November 14, with developed markets showing slight rebounds [19][24] - In emerging markets, A-share indices generally declined, with the ChiNext 50 and the ChiNext index experiencing the most significant pullbacks of -3.8% and -3.0%, respectively [19][24] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The Chinese bond market is characterized by a "bull steep" yield curve, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening. The 10-year yield remains stable at 1.81% [37][39] - In contrast, the US bond market exhibits a "bear flat" yield curve, with the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropping to 44.4% from 66.9% [37][39] Group 5: Commodity and Currency Trends - Silver and copper have led commodity gains, with the CRB commodity index rising by 0.5%. The dollar index has decreased by 0.3%, while major currencies like the euro and pound have appreciated against the dollar [6][12] - The gold-to-oil ratio has increased, while the gold-to-silver and gold-to-copper ratios have decreased, indicating changing dynamics in the precious metals market [12][18]

11月18日，国内商品期货市场整体表现弱势承压，多数商品收盘下挫。截至下午收盘时，中证商品期货价格指数收报1469.27点，较前一交易日下跌8.85点， 跌幅0.60%；中证商品期货指数收报2031.42点，较前一交易日下跌11.01点，跌幅0.54%。 分品种来看，日内活跃商品板块多数走弱，其中焦煤焦炭分别跌近4%和3%，领跌商品市场；集运欧线低开低走，收盘下跌2.88%。贵金属延续回调，金银 分别跌超1%和2%，而化工仍是表现最弱的板块，包括纯苯、燃料油、丙烯、PVC等在内的多个化工品收盘跌超1%。相比之下，铁矿石意外强势，终盘以超 1%的涨幅逆势收高。 铁矿石震荡走高延续反弹走势 红枣尾盘冲高一度涨超2% 其他品种方面，18日国内商品市场主要品种多数下跌，其中贵金属延续调整，沪银再跌超2%。化工板块延续弱势，丙烯、纯苯、PVC等均跌超1%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 图为中证商品价格指数日内走势（来源：新华财经专业终端） 双焦大幅回落 集运欧线跳空下挫 与铁矿石的逆势走高形成鲜明对比的是，焦煤焦炭18日大幅回落。截至收盘时，焦煤以3.86%的跌幅高居跌幅排行之首，焦炭则以2.86%的跌幅居第三位。 盘中， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including base metals, precious metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies vary by commodity, with some markets expected to be volatile and others to trend up or down based on supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and policy changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market performance showed prices oscillating strongly. Fundamentals include a pending US House vote on a government - shutdown bill and a Fed official's retirement, with a continued tight supply of copper ore. The trading strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.99% from the previous day. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand (weekly aluminum product start - up rate) is slightly decreasing. With a falling dollar index and overseas supply disruptions, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and inventory changes should be monitored [3]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract rose 0.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand comes from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. The market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on industry production cuts [3]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract rose 0.09% from the previous day. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, while overseas supply is increasing. Consumption is in the off - season, but LME inventory decline provides support. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3][5]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract rose 1.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand from battery enterprises is slightly improving. Domestic inventory is low. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [3][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 15 yuan/ton. Supply is shrinking as furnace - opening numbers decrease in the southwest, and demand is supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to buy on dips [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract rose 0.05%. Supply is expected to be tight in November, with demand from materials like lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increasing. It's recommended to buy on dips cautiously and avoid chasing highs, or consider selling put options [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 1530 yuan/ton. Supply is decreasing, and downstream product prices are stable. November's production is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. With the slow progress of the storage platform, it's recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - **Tin**: Prices oscillated strongly. The US House vote and a Fed official's retirement are factors, and tin ore supply is tight. The short - term strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset and watch the 300,000 - yuan resistance level [3][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Overnight prices rose significantly, with domestic silver hitting a record high and driving up gold prices. Fed personnel changes, inventory changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are the main factors. It's recommended to buy gold on dips and gradually reduce silver long positions [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract closed at 3030 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous night. Building material demand and production are both decreasing. The recommended strategy is to wait and see and consider shorting the 2601 contract [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract closed at 768 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night. Supply and demand are deteriorating marginally, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract closed at 1208.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous night. Iron - water production is decreasing, and the market is in a long - term premium structure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and South American production is expected to increase. Demand from crushing and exports is improving. It's advisable to focus on the USDA report on Friday, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short - term [8]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose. Corn inventory is low, and demand from deep - processing is strong. New - crop production is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended [8]. - **Fats and Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell. Supply in Malaysia is increasing, and demand is also rising. It's expected to continue inventory accumulation in the near - term and enter a seasonal production - reduction period later. The P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [8]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5473 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The global sugar supply is expected to be excessive, and the domestic market may follow the downward trend after a short - term rebound. It's recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. Indian cotton production decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic cotton prices oscillated downwards. It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices both fell. Supply pressure is decreasing as production inventory drops, but demand is weakening after Double Eleven. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. Pig prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace due to new device production and import window closure. Demand is weakening as the agricultural film season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4583, down 0.2%. Supply is increasing, demand is slightly improving, and inventory is high. It's recommended to short or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. Polyester factory load is high, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It's recommended to take profit on long positions and short processing fees on far - month contracts [10][11]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract rose 0.56%. Raw material prices are supportive, and inventory is increasing. It's recommended to maintain an oscillating trading strategy and watch for raw material supply in the main production areas [11]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1049, down 1.2%. Supply is excessive, inventory is high, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing as new devices are put into operation, and demand is weakening as the peak season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [11]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 3981 yuan/ton, and inventory is accumulating. It's recommended to short at high prices on the 01 contract [11]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell sharply due to the OPEC monthly report. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak. If Russian oil production decline is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it's advisable to short at high prices [11][12]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to improve marginally in the short - term but weaken in the long - term as new devices are put into operation. Demand is weakening. It's recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads in the long - term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1215, down 0.9%. Supply is stable, inventory is balanced, and demand from photovoltaic glass is normal. It's recommended to wait and see [12].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed a general decline on November 4, with most active commodities closing lower. The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1461.19 points, down 12.44 points or 0.84% from the previous trading day [1] - The chemical sector experienced widespread weakness, with multiple products such as coking coal, coke, and ethylene glycol dropping over 2%. Other products like methanol, soda ash, liquefied petroleum gas, and rubber fell more than 1% [1][6] Group 2: Specific Commodity Performance - Red dates and lithium carbonate were the weakest performers of the day, with red dates dropping over 5% and lithium carbonate declining over 4%, ranking first and second in terms of decline [1] - The shipping index for Europe saw a contrary increase, closing with a nearly 4% gain, leading the commodity market [2] Group 3: Shipping and Soybean Meal - The shipping index for Europe experienced a significant rise, with a 3.82% increase, driven by strong market sentiment and expectations for price increases during the shipping peak season [2] - Soybean meal continued its upward trend, recording a 1.55% increase, attributed to concerns over supply shortages as domestic imported rapeseed stocks were depleted [3] Group 4: Fresh Fruits and Lithium Carbonate - Fresh fruit futures, particularly red dates, saw a sharp decline of 5.55%, attributed to a supply-demand imbalance following the holiday season, with red dates falling below 10,000 yuan per ton [4] - Lithium carbonate prices fell over 4%, reversing gains from the previous weeks, influenced by high production levels and renewed supply pressures from the resumption of mining operations in Jiangxi [5]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with the shipping index (European line) rising over 3% and lithium carbonate dropping over 4% [1] - The China convertible bond index closed down 0.67%, with notable gainers including Zhongneng Convertible Bond and Zhenhua Convertible Bond, which rose 13.15% and 9.57% respectively [1] - The ETF market had varied performances, with the Asia-Pacific Selected ETF leading gains at 2.35%, while the Nikkei 225 ETF fell by 5.76% [1] Group 2 - UBS Securities expressed a positive mid-term outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that growth style remains the main investment theme, with the ChiNext board showing a favorable risk-reward ratio [2] - In the context of AI investments, Invesco's Chief Global Market Strategist noted that the potential of AI is undeniable, but the ultimate winners in the sector will take time to identify, recommending a diversified investment approach [2] - CICC highlighted that the market's upward trend is likely to continue, with structural highlights in sectors such as AI computing power, machinery, automotive, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] Group 3 - The Chief Economist of AVIC Securities indicated that external risks are easing, leading to improved market risk appetite, and suggested a balanced investment approach focusing on themes like smart technology and aerospace [3] - The recent announcement regarding gold tax policies aims to encourage on-site gold trading by clarifying distinctions between investment and non-investment uses [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and show a sideways trend in the medium - term. For soybean meal, factors such as Sino - US trade relations, high near - month inventory and far - month gap expectations in the domestic market are influencing its price. For palm oil, international oil price pressure, policy uncertainties, and demand substitution are the main factors [5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Medium - term View**: Sideways - **Reference View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations continue to disrupt the market. The combination of tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, along with the contradiction of high near - month inventory and far - month gap expectations in the domestic market, leads to a divergence in soybean futures prices and a weakening of capital support. As a result, soybean meal futures prices fluctuate weakly in the short - term [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Medium - term View**: Sideways - **Reference View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Core Logic**: The spill - over effect of the pressure on international oil prices on the oil market persists. Additionally, policy uncertainties in various countries increase, demand substitution in the oil market emerges, and market instability rises. Affected by macro - sentiment, market funds are cautious, and bulls leave the market. Before market sentiment recovers, palm oil futures prices will fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.3 Other Factors Affecting Related Varieties - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Affected by Sino - US relations, US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Impacted by its bio - diesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with bearish factors dominating [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Methanol Futures Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly rose 0.17% to 2300 yuan/ton on Thursday night. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Friday [5] Core Logic of the Trend - After the market digested the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakened [5] - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at a relatively high level, and the external import pressure continues to increase, with the annual import peak having arrived, resulting in high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China before the festival [5] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5]