投资要点 证券研究报告/投资策略 ➢ 资讯要闻 四季度 A 股开门红，商务部加强稀土出口管制 1. 10月9日，A股在10月首个交易日迎来开门红行情，上证指数涨逾50点，突破3900点，创逾10年 新高。整个A股市场超3100只股票上涨，近100只股票涨停。市场成交放量，成交额超2.6万亿元。 2. 10月9日，商务部公布对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定，境外特定出口经营者在向中国以 外的其他国家和地区出口前，必须获得中国商务部颁发的两用物项出口许可证件；对向境外军事用户 的出口申请及向出口管制管控名单和关注名单所列的进口商和最终用户的出口申请，原则上不予许 可。 宏观策略周报 ➢ 市场概览 本周国内证券市场主要指数表现分化，其中上证指数涨幅最大为0.37%。申万一级行业中，有色金属 涨幅最大为4.44%。 本周市场方面，A 股在国庆中秋长假后迎来 "开门红"，上证指数时隔 10 年重回 3900 点关口之 上，深证成指、科创 50 指数也表现亮眼，有色金属板块因国际金价上涨火热，AI 板块相关个股受 追捧，市场交易活跃。同时，商务部宣布对含中国成分的部分境外稀土相关物项实施出口管制，旨在 维护国家安全和 ...

港股新消费板块持续走高，古茗涨超10%，布鲁可涨超7%，蜜雪集团涨超5%，沪上阿姨、安井食品跟 涨。 ...

2、周四，现货白银价格一度突破51美元/盎司大关，创下自1980年代亨特兄弟逼空事件以来的最高水 平。今年以来白银期货涨幅已超过70%，表现远超屡创新高的黄金。 3、近期，美联储"三把手"、纽约联储威廉姆斯明确表态，支持在今年内进一步下调利率，以应对劳动 力市场可能出现的急剧放缓风险。但美联储理事巴尔表示，通胀和就业情况的不确定性表明，对进一步 降息应采取谨慎态度。 【市场复盘】 10月9日，港股三大指数走势分化。截至收盘，恒生指数跌0.29%，报26752.59点；恒生科技指数跌 0.66%，报6471.34点；国企指数涨0.07%，报9530.13点。盘面上，医药股大幅回调，半导体产业链午后 显著回落，有色行业加速冲高。热点个股方面，阿里巴巴跌近2.5%，华虹半导体跌近6.5%，中芯国际 跌超6.5%，快手涨超3.5%，联想集团涨超7%。热点ETF方面，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）收平。 【南向资金】 10月9日，南向资金净买入港股30.43亿港元，快手获净买入10.86亿港元；截至10月9日，今年以来南向 资金累计净买入额达11705.58亿港元，大幅超过去年全年净买入额。 【隔夜美股】 隔夜美股 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the A-share market is currently in a bull market driven by abundant liquidity, referred to as the "water buffalo" phenomenon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 25% over six months [4][5] - The North Exchange (北交所) has also shown impressive performance this year, with the North 50 Index increasing by 47% year-to-date as of September 30 [5][12] - B-shares, previously quiet, have experienced several waves of trading activity, with the National B Index seeing a maximum increase of over 10% since mid-June [7][22] Group 2 - The trading activity in the North Exchange has significantly improved due to liquidity, with daily trading volumes often exceeding 20 billion, peaking at 52.8 billion, and an average turnover rate of 9.9% [10][13] - The North Exchange's liquidity issues have been alleviated, benefiting from the spillover effects of liquidity improvements in the main A-share markets [12][22] - The North Exchange's focus on small-cap stocks, which have higher price elasticity, and a more flexible trading system with a 30% price limit (excluding new stocks) have contributed to increased trading activity [12][19] Group 3 - The investment direction in the North Exchange has shown a clear trend of short-term theme-driven trading, with significant activity in AI-related and humanoid robot stocks [17][18] - Solid fundamentals in certain sectors, such as the automotive industry and new consumption, have attracted investor attention, with notable stock performances like a 300% increase for Yizhi Mogu and a 280% increase for Kaitex [19][21] - The North 50 Index's PE-TTM has recently exceeded 70 times, indicating a high valuation level that poses potential risks despite positive expectations for future performance [19][21] Group 4 - B-shares have benefited from the overall liquidity in the market, with recent trading activity driven by net inflows of funds [22] - Future opportunities for B-shares include improved transfer mechanisms and simplified account opening procedures, which may enhance market participation [22]

我们之前给大家说了消费未来较长一段时间没有 beta 行情，也一直在强 call 科技板块。不过行情分化至此，总有人想知道消费板块什么时候 可能来行情。今天我们就再来讨论这个问题，以帮助大家在适时的时候去更好把握高低切的机会。 与上证形成鲜明对比的是消费属性的老登股们新低，典型如贵州茅台，今天一度下跌了 1 个多点。 当前市场是牛市，这点是毫无疑问的，但这个牛市对老登们来说是分外难受的和迷茫的。 上证指数今天突破了 3900 ，与昔日上证突破需要借助大市值老登股不同，现在科技板块也涨出了许多巨头，它们也足以拉动指数。 01 国庆消费数据继续一般 国庆回来大家应该都是踌躇满志，结果老登们被挨了当头一棒。这个主要原因是国庆期间的消费相关数据很一般。 大家不要看出行人次，或者某某平台什么订单量爆增。大家数据看多了就知道，几乎每一个长假都有这样的数据，都是好得不得了，这个数据 在消费投资上没有太多参考意义。 中秋国庆是中国很重要的节假日，彼此送送礼维系一下关系。而这个中秋的礼赠场景呢？比如礼盒月饼，下滑了 45% 。另外还有个典型产 品，白酒，白酒表现怎么样呢？ 这个中秋国庆白酒的终端动销下滑了 20% ，中低价位的 ...

Group 1: Hang Seng Bank - Hang Seng Bank's stock price surged over 40% in a short period, reaching a peak of 168 HKD per share before closing at 150.3 HKD, marking a 26.3% increase [2][3] - HSBC Holdings and Hang Seng Bank announced a proposal for privatization, with HSBC Asia requesting the board to present a plan to shareholders for the buyout of remaining shares at 155 HKD per share, representing a 30% premium over the previous closing price [4][5] - The proposed valuation of Hang Seng Bank is approximately 290 billion HKD, equating to 1.8 times its book value for the first half of 2025, with a total cash payout of about 106.16 billion HKD required for the buyout [4][5] Group 2: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw a rebound, with sectors such as materials, telecommunications, information technology, and semiconductors leading the gains, while biomedicine lagged [2] - Other notable stock performances included Shanghai Electric rising over 15%, ZTE Corporation increasing by over 12%, and Mixue Group gaining over 10% [2][7] Group 3: Mixue Group - Mixue Group's stock price increased by over 10%, reaching 415 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization exceeding 150 billion HKD [9] - The company announced an investment agreement to inject 285.6 million RMB into a subsidiary, acquiring a 51% stake, which will expand its product line into fresh beer [10] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Hua Hong Semiconductor's stock reached a new high of 99.5 HKD per share, closing at 97.2 HKD, reflecting a 6.75% increase [12] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing upward trends, driven by AI demand and recovery in consumer electronics, with firms like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC positioned as leading foundries in China [15][16]

每经AI快讯，10月9日，港股新消费概念股震荡走强，蜜雪集团涨超9%，名创优品、古茗、锅圈涨超 3%。 ...

2024年四季度以来，A股市场走出了一轮结构性回暖行情，市场情绪逐步修复，投资机会在多条主线中 交替演绎。根据同花顺最新统计，截至9月24日的过去一年间，沪深300指数累计上涨36.22%，而同期 主动偏股型基金指数(932055)涨幅高达53.71%，显著跑赢大盘。这一数据不仅反映出主动管理型基金整 体业绩的强劲反弹，也凸显出基金经理在震荡市中的选股能力与策略执行力。 在对过去一年全市场主动权益类基金(包括股票型与混合型基金，剔除偏债混合、股债平衡、指数及指 数增强产品)的全面梳理中，我们发现：在全市场超4300只产品中，仅有58只基金实现了超过150%的收 益率，堪称"头部中的头部"。而其中，基金经理赵强所管理的三只产品悉数入选，成为本轮行情中极少 数能够实现"全系领先"的投资代表，展现出卓越的策略一致性与业绩爆发力。 实力验证：老将执舵，以持续业绩见证价值 赵强先生，一位拥有22年从业经验的资深战将，自2003年踏入基金行业，先后在华安基金、国金基金、 英大基金、中欧基金等机构担任投研要职，积累了完整的牛熊周期经验与多策略管理能力。他自2014年 起管理公募基金，2015年兼任专户投资，兼具公募的体系化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, with a notable recovery in September driven by technology stocks, despite underperforming A-shares in the first three quarters [1][2] Valuation Comparison - Current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are at historical medians, making them attractive compared to A-shares, particularly in the technology sector which shows significant undervaluation [1][2] - As of September 30, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Hang Seng Index is 12.1 times, which is at the 63rd percentile since data collection began, while the P/E ratio for the Hang Seng Technology Index is 24.6 times, at the 37th percentile [1] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see the Hong Kong stock market reach new highs, with the Hang Seng Technology Index being the most prominent sector [2] - Factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, stabilization of US-China trade relations, and continued inflow of southbound capital are anticipated to support this upward trend [2] Sector Focus - The technology sector remains the main focus of the market, driven by AI advancements and favorable policies promoting dividends and low interest rates [2] - New consumption and innovative pharmaceutical assets in Hong Kong are also highlighted as areas of interest, given their relative scarcity compared to A-shares [2]

浙商国际发布研报称，回顾9月港股市场走势，市场振荡向上加速上涨，连续5个月收涨。整体来看，港 股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境进一步改善，政策面巩固经济稳增长，情绪面短期做多情绪浓重。当 下港股市场周月线级别趋势已进入右侧区间，对于后续走势，即使短期行情有波折，仍不建议悲观。对 于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。板块配置方面，看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的汽 车、新消费、创新药、科技等。 从各个角度简要总结当下市场环境。基本面：8月经济数据整体表现进一步走弱，国内经济仍处于筑底 期；政策面：政策基调强调更加积极有为，以巩固经济稳增长的基础；资金面：内部南向资金加速流 入，外部资金环境进一步改善，更多资金开始介入港股；情绪面：市场强势表现驱动看多情绪，但市场 对于基本面的担忧仍在。 2025年10月港股市场展望及配置策略 港股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境进一步改善，政策面巩固经济稳增长，情绪面短期做多情绪浓重。 当下港股市场周月线级别趋势已进入右侧区间，对于后续走势，即使短期行情有波折，仍不建议悲观。 对于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。板块配置方面，看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的 汽车、新消 ...