| | 1、据欧盟委员会，截至3月1日，欧盟2025/26大豆进口量为829万吨，而去年为925万吨。2、外媒 | | --- | --- | | | 报道，加拿大统计局将于3月5日北京时间21:30公布主要农作物2026年种植意向预估。受访的六位 | | 行业 | 交易商和分析师平均预期，2026年加拿大油菜籽种植面积料为2230万英亩，高于2025年统计局公 | | 信息 | 布的2150万英亩。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆粕震荡收跌，美国生物燃料政策近期预计将落地，将提振美豆压榨需求。同时近 | | | 期受到干旱天气影响巴西大豆单产预计受到不利影响，AgRural将25/26年度巴西大豆产量预估值 | | | 由此前的1.81亿吨下调至1.78亿吨；近期巴西大豆出口也有所偏慢，CONAB数据显示截至2月28日 | | | 巴西大豆收割率为41.7%，上周为31.9%，慢于去年同期的48.4%，使得近期美豆整体偏强震荡。国 | | | 内方面，受到成本端支撑连粕跟随外盘偏强。一季度国内大豆进口量环比下降，供应压力将有所 | | | 缓解，近月仍需关注美国和巴西大豆的装船节奏和节后进口大豆拍卖情况。远月来 ...

养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月28日星期六 棕榈油：节后首周棕榈油冲高回落，盘面再度跌至节前低点附近， 高频数据显示2月马棕出口环比显著下滑，产地库存高位，棕榈油 价格承压。3月印尼将提高出口关税，间接利多马棕出口，美伊军 事冲突也将带动原油及植物油拉涨，期价下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the US soybean market enters the resonance period of the old and new crop years. The export and crushing demand of the old crop year remain the focus of the market. The increase in Chinese purchases and the improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations may boost US soybean exports. The crushing demand is still strong, and the tight inventory situation may support the futures price. The CBOT soybean may fluctuate around 1150 cents per bushel and may rise to 1200 cents per bushel [32][94]. - The implementation of multiple biodiesel policies in the US soybean oil market in March is crucial. If the policies are favorable, the strong expectation may turn into strong reality, and soybean oil prices may continue to rise. Otherwise, it may face a decline [48][94]. - For the Malaysian palm oil market, high inventory restricts price increases. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate at a low level. When the inventory drops below 2.4 million tons, prices may rise. In March, production may recover significantly, and the reduction of inventory depends on the increase in Indian imports [65][95]. - In March, the domestic oil inventory may increase steadily but with limited recovery. The supply of domestic soybean oil may improve in March and increase significantly in April. Palm oil inventory may remain at a relatively high level, and rapeseed oil inventory may change little due to policy uncertainties. The increase in domestic oil inventory in March may mainly rely on soybean oil [3][92][97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Market Review - In February, CBOT soybean oil rose significantly due to positive biodiesel policy expectations, rising international crude oil prices, and active fund buying. The US Treasury's 45Z proposed rules and the EPA's submission of the 2026 biofuel mandate boosted market sentiment. In contrast, Malaysian palm oil was weak, with declining export data and high inventory [9]. - Domestic oils fluctuated within a range, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil rising slightly following international oils, but the increase was much lower than that of the external market. Palm oil's weak performance dragged down the domestic oil market [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Oils 3.2.1 US Soybean Inventory and Market Outlook - The USDA did not adjust US soybean exports in the February supply - demand report. Although the year - on - year export sales decreased, the sales progress was in line with expectations. However, the export shipment progress was slow, and future exports may change due to factors such as tariff policies and Chinese purchases [13][14]. - The NOPA's January soybean crushing volume was high, and the crushing demand is the main force of US soybean demand. The crushing profit has continued to recover, and the crushing demand will remain strong [20][23]. - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase, but there are differences in the market's expectations. If the weather is normal, the yield is expected to increase, and the inventory in the 26/27 year may increase slightly. In the short - term, the US soybean market may maintain a strong and volatile trend [24][29]. 3.2.2 US Biodiesel Policy and Soybean Oil Market - The US biodiesel policy has not been implemented, and the consumption of US soybean oil has not increased as expected. The USDA expects the industrial consumption of US soybean oil to increase significantly in the 25/26 year [33]. - The US Treasury issued the proposed rules for biofuel tax credits in February, and the EPA is expected to finalize the biofuel blending quota rules by the end of March, which may bring positive support to US soybean oil [41]. - Currently, the supply of US soybean oil has increased significantly, but the demand growth is not obvious, and the inventory has reached a four - year high. The implementation of biodiesel policies in March is the key to the future trend of soybean oil [46][48]. 3.2.3 Malaysian Palm Oil Market - February and March are the transition months from the production - reduction to the production - increase cycle for Southeast Asian palm oil. In March, Malaysian palm oil production may increase significantly. In February, production and exports both decreased, and the inventory decline may be less than expected. In March, production and exports may both increase [51][56]. - High inventory restricts the rise of Malaysian palm oil prices. When the inventory drops below 2.4 million tons, prices may rise. The increase in Indian imports is crucial for inventory reduction [65][69]. - The production of Indonesian palm oil may decline, and the implementation of the B40 biodiesel plan has led to a continuous decline in inventory. The change of Indonesian policies may bring opportunities to the market [63]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oil Market - As of February 21, the domestic inventory of the three major vegetable oils decreased compared with the previous month. In March, the domestic oil supply is expected to increase, and it will be more abundant in April [71]. - The domestic soybean oil inventory has declined, and the demand may increase steadily in March. The supply may improve in March and increase significantly in April, and the inventory may remain stable with limited increase [76][77]. - The domestic palm oil inventory has remained at a relatively high level. Due to high prices and import losses, the market mainly makes rigid purchases, and the inventory may remain stable [79][83]. - The domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased. In March, the supply may recover, but the inventory repair is limited. The market is waiting for the relaxation of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations to increase supply [86][90]. 3.3 Fourth Part: Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In the international market, the US soybean and soybean oil markets are affected by policies and demand. The Malaysian palm oil market is restricted by inventory. In the domestic market, the inventory may increase steadily, mainly relying on soybean oil [94][97]. - Operationally, adopt a strategy of buying on dips for oils, as there are opportunities for phased price increases. Or use a double - selling options strategy based on the wide - range oscillation idea [97].

| | 1、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至2月8日，巴西大豆播种率为99.7%，上周为 | | --- | --- | | | 99.6%，去年同期为99.5%，五年均值为99.5%；巴西大豆收割率为17.4%，上周为11.2%，去年同 | | 行业 | 期为14.8%，五年均值为18.7%。2、布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所（BAGE）称，截至2月4日，阿根廷 | | 信息 | 2025/2026年度大豆播种工作全部结束3、截至2月6日当周，国内主要油厂大豆压榨量248万吨，为 | | | 历史次高水平，周环比上升19万吨 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收跌，根据CONAB数据截至1月31日，巴西大豆收割率为11.4%，上周为 | | | 6.6%，去年同期为8%，五年均值为11.8%。美方称中国对美豆的采购计划可能从已完成的1200万吨 | | | 提升至2000万吨，大幅提振美豆出口前景。但考虑到巴西收割工作现阶段持续进行，且巴西产量 | | | 预估继续上调，收割压力逐步加大使得美豆期价仍面临一定压力。国内方面，节后进口大豆拍卖 | | | 预计恢复，叠加国内豆粕的高库存以及远月供应 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 临近长假，油脂观望为主 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-02-09 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：临近长假，油脂观望为主 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）马来棕榈油持续减产，印尼3月提高关税或限制出口；（2）虽然此前预期2-3月有大豆青黄不接的可能，但在增购美豆800万吨以及拍卖储备大豆 | | | | 的预期下，短期大豆偏紧的预期可能落空；（3）大豆油厂春节期间普遍停机半个月左右；（4）上周菜籽有小部分开机，但压榨量很小，仍然缺籽。 | | 需求 | 国内篇空；产 | （1）印度和中国节前备货节奏进入尾声，后续预计有需求的回落；（2）美国生柴整体配额预计维持此前草案的水平或更低，但取消了对进口投料的惩 | | | 地有利多 | 罚，更利好加拿大菜系产品需求，关 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - From January 22 - 29, US soybean export sales net increase was 43.74 million tons, in line with expectations; export shipments were 138.77 million tons, up 9% from the previous week and 4% from the four - week average; new sales for the current market year were 44.46 million tons, and 0.04 million tons for the next market year [1] - From January 22 - 29, US soybean meal export sales net increase was 38.03 million tons, in line with expectations; export shipments were 30.78 million tons, down 7% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average; new sales for the current market year were 42.35 million tons, and 0 for the next market year [1] - Anec forecasts Brazil's soybean exports in February to be 11.42 billion tons, a significant increase from 9.73 billion tons in the same period last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.63 billion tons, compared to 1.5 billion tons last year [1] - Secex data shows Brazil exported 1,876,531.75 tons of soybeans in January, a 75.51% increase year - on - year [1] - MPOA data indicates Malaysia's crude palm oil production in January decreased 14.03% month - on - month to 1.57 billion tons [1] - Analysts estimate Canada's rapeseed inventory as of December 31, 2025, to be 15.758 billion tons, up from 13.223 billion tons at the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 30 to February 5, 2026, are presented in a table [2] Group 3: Others - There are mentions of protein meal basis, grease basis, and grease and oil futures price spreads, but no specific data is provided [2][5][9]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw a majority decline in night trading on February 5, with non-metal building materials leading the drop, specifically PVC down by 1.90% [1] - The black series commodities all experienced declines, with coking coal falling by 1.78% [1] - Most chemical products also decreased, with soda ash down by 1.32% [1] Group 2 - Energy products showed gains, with fuel oil increasing by 0.64% [1] - Agricultural products mostly rose, with corn starch up by 0.44% [1] - Oilseeds and oils also saw increases, with soybean meal rising by 0.18% [1]

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2026/2/5 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8140 | 9138 | 9243 | 2723 | 2349 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 54 | 44 | 28 | -4 | -13 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.67% | 0.48% | -3.15% | -0.15% | -0.55% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US Treasury issued proposed rules for biofuel producers to obtain tax credits, which was welcomed by the biofuel trade organization but some issues remain unanswered [1] - Malaysian palm oil export data from different institutions showed different trends in January 2026, with production also showing a decline [1] - India's palm oil imports in January reached a four - month high, with a significant increase, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports decreased [1] Summary by Related Content Biofuel Policy - The US Treasury released proposed rules on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can get a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon transportation fuels, including aviation fuel. The "45Z" plan under the Inflation Reduction Act was revised in the Great America Act last year, allowing the use of Canadian and Mexican raw materials and adjusting the calculation method of land - use intensity. The plan was welcomed by the biofuel trade organization, but some questions remained unanswered [1] Malaysian Palm Oil - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January 2026 were 944,885 tons, a 5.58% decrease from December 2025. AmSpec data showed an increase of 14.89% to 1,375,718 tons. SPPOMA data indicated a 13.08% decline in production, a 13.78% drop in fresh fruit bunch yield, and a 0.16% increase in oil extraction rate [1] Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - Indian palm oil imports in January soared 51% to 766,000 tons, a four - month high, while soybean oil imports plunged 45% to 280,000 tons (the lowest since June 2024) and sunflower oil imports dropped 23% to 269,000 tons. Total edible vegetable oil imports decreased 3.5% to 1.32 million tons. It is expected that palm oil imports in February will further increase [1] Price and Basis Data - Spot prices of various oilseeds and oils from January 28 - February 3, 2026, in different regions were provided, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2] - Multiple basis charts were presented, including soybean meal (January, September, May basis in Jiangsu), rapeseed meal (January, May, September basis in Guangdong), soybean oil (January, September, May basis in Zhangjiagang), palm oil (January, May, September basis in Guangzhou), and rapeseed oil (January, May, September basis in East China) [3][4][5] Price Spread Data - Various seasonal price spread charts were provided, including spreads between different contracts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, as well as spreads between different types of oilseeds and oils such as soybean - rapeseed meal, soybean - palm oil, and rapeseed - soybean oil [4]

化工品涨幅居前，丁二烯橡胶涨2.57%；非金属建材涨跌参半，玻璃涨2.14%；能源品全部上涨，燃油 涨2.01%；黑色系多数上涨，焦煤涨0.43%；油脂油料跌幅居前，菜粕跌0.71%；农副产品多数下跌，棉 花跌0.10%。 ...