油脂油料产业日报 2025/11/21 【棕榈油】 国际市场：马来西亚BMD毛棕榈油期货受基本面利空打压而承压回落，SPPOMA数据显示1-20日产量增长10%以上，叠加出口持续疲软的潜在利空担忧，马棕应声 大幅睛跌并在盘中跌破4100令吉支撑。短线仍有惯性趋弱走低的压力，预期会向下测试4000令吉的支撑作用。在此有短暂止跌反弹走强的机会，如基本面上产量增 长的利空仍无法消除，则要提防后市逐步趋弱至3950-3960区间的可能，以回补此前跳空缺口。 国内市场：大连棕榈油期货市场表现疲软，期价在马棕趋弱走低的拖累下，短线跌破了8600元后继续趋弱并创下新低，短线预期会测试8500元的支撑作用，关注能 否在此获得支撑而逐步止跌企稳。受马棕有短暂跌破4000令吉的担忧和影响，不排除连棕油跌破8500元后进一步下探8200的可能和风险。这里也是250周均线的支 撑作用，关注后市能否在此获得支撑而有效地止跌企稳。 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不 ...

我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 油油油MPOB 油油油油油 油油油油 2 0 2 5 / 1 1 / 1 1 作者：聂波 从业资格证号：F03117695 交易咨询证号：Z0019358 研究联系方:niebo@zjtfqh.com 观点小结 周末美国环境保护署允许两份小型炼油厂100%豁免申请，但是有12份只获得50%的豁免申请，同时也拒绝了两份豁免申请， 美豆油主力跌破50美分/磅，但是并未持续较长时间，毕竟此前有消息称关于小型炼油厂豁免申请的批复被延迟到明年初， 虽然也没有豁免义务再分配的消息，但是市场更想等待2026年以以后的合规义务分配量，从EIA公布的8月数据，豆油在美 国生柴的投料比例回升至39%，但是废弃油脂以及动物脂肪的投料比例下跌明显，美豆油需求仍然旺盛，只是略低于去年同 期。 油脂 定性 解析 核心观 中性 10月马来西亚棕榈油产量环比增加11.02%至204万吨，高于市场预估的194-195万吨，分地区来看，马来半岛环比增加6.55%， 沙捞越州和沙巴州分别增15%和19%，进入10月产区旱季明显，多数地区降雨偏低，且10月假期少，当 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/11/18 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月17日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周一，豆油主力01合约偏强走势，午后收于8282（日变动2 6或0.31%）。豆粕大幅走弱后受油粕套利影响下豆油走势偏强。基 本面来看，国内豆油库存 ...

油脂油料周度行情 【国富棕榈油研究周报】MPOB 马棕 10 月继续累库，关注产地高 频数据 20251117 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月17日 07:20 上海 目录 | í | 行情回顾 1 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | | 二、产区天气 | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | ( | 国际供需 | | 1. | MPOB 10 月报告 | | 2. | 马棕 11月预测 | | 3. | 其他重要资讯 8 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | 1. 1 | 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 11 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 | 2公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、 行情回顾 1. BMD 马棕 外盘方面,截至11月14日收盘,BMD 马棕01 合约收于 4125 令吉/吨, 较上周上涨0.36%。本周马棕价格上涨,主要受国际相关竞品植物油价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to take a wait - and - see approach. Palm oil should be treated as range - bound with a downward bias, soybean oil's basis is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and rapeseed oil's basis is supported by the near - term tight supply situation [5] Report's Core View - Supply: Palm oil is bearish in the near - term, soybean oil is neutral, and rapeseed oil is bearish overall but bullish in the near - term. Reasons include high palm oil inventories in Malaysia, expected increase in China's palm oil imports in Q4, limited positive impact from the USDA report, and short - term raw material shortages for rapeseed oil [5] - Demand: A wait - and - see approach is recommended. Factors include the active promotion of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the undetermined US biodiesel RVO, stable domestic consumption and export support for soybean oil, and the upcoming peak consumption season for rapeseed oil in winter [5] - Inventory: A wait - and - see approach is advised. China's total oil inventory remains high, rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking due to raw material shortages, palm oil has inventory replenishment expectations, and the destination of imported US soybeans for soybean oil needs attention [5] - Macro and Policy: Bearish. The USDA report's export data was lower than expected, Indonesia's B50 implementation has uncertainties, the US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain, and Canada plans to increase biodiesel production capacity [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Impact Factors: Analyzes supply, demand, inventory, and macro - policy factors, and provides corresponding investment views and trading strategies [5] - Trading Strategies: Suggests shorting the palm oil 01 contract, buying call options for protection, and conducting an arbitrage strategy of going long on Y01 and shorting P01 [5] PART TWO: Market Review - Presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5 [7][11][12] PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [21][23][25] - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Displays data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, exports, and ending inventory [34][39] - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Presents data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, exports, and ending inventory [40][45] - India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference: Shows India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [46][50] - China's Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Displays data on China's palm oil imports, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit [52][54][56] - Weather and US Soybean Production: Shows the temperature and precipitation distribution in soybean - producing areas in the US, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress [63][66][72] - US and Brazil Export Situation: Presents data on US soybean exports and Brazil's soybean exports [76][80] - China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Displays data on China's soybean arrivals, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory [90] - Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, as well as Canada's soil moisture [91][100] - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival: Presents data on rapeseed exports from producing areas and China's rapeseed arrivals [102][104] - China's Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: Displays data on China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory [109][113]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The technology - growth sector remains the market's main line, and the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction [9]. - For various metals and commodities, the strategies vary according to supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For example, for copper, the supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for prices; for aluminum, supply disruptions and improved export expectations may push prices higher [13][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The chairman of the CSRC visited French and Brazilian financial regulatory authorities; in October, M2, M1, and M0 had different year - on - year growth rates; the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 8.5%; SMIC's Q3 net profit increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors have been rotating rapidly. The technology - growth sector is still the main line, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes; in October, financial data such as M2, M1, and M0 had different performances; the US failed to release the October CPI report; the central bank conducted 1900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices rose; COMEX gold and silver prices were reported; the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported; Fed officials' overall stance was hawkish, but the monetary policy was expected to be further relaxed; after the retirement of the Atlanta Fed chairman, the Fed may show a "dovish tendency" [8][9]. - **Strategy**: In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market strengthened, and the US October CPI data was not released as scheduled. Copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and other inventory data changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference is under pressure, but the supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating range for Shanghai copper futures is provided [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose first and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply concerns caused by overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts, low domestic inventory, and expected easing of global trade tensions and Fed monetary policy may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum futures are provided [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc 3S also rose. Domestic and LME zinc inventory data and other market indicators were reported [16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, zinc smelting profit was under pressure, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation slowed down. Shanghai zinc is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead 3S rose. Domestic and LME lead inventory data and other market indicators were reported [17]. - **Strategy**: The profit of primary and secondary lead smelting is good, but raw material shortages limit lead ingot output. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded, and LME lead has been continuously destocking. Shanghai lead is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot market premiums were stable, and nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices accelerated their decline [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough or risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME nickel futures are provided [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures prices rose. The supply of tin was affected by the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand in emerging fields provided support [19][20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin futures are provided [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also rose. Domestic production increased slightly, and inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The rise of lithium - battery stocks on Thursday had a strong impact on the futures market sentiment. The supply growth rate slowed down this week, and the inventory days continued to hit a new low. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the change in the equity market atmosphere. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is provided [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the unilateral trading volume decreased. The basis, overseas prices, and futures inventory data were reported [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are gradually recovering after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is provided [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory decreased, and the supply was still under pressure [26]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak and oscillating trend, mainly affected by over - supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, and the weighted contract position decreased. The inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand is relatively average. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had different changes, and the spot prices were stable. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [30]. - **Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed up slightly yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. In the short term, prices are expected to continue the weak and oscillating trend, but demand may improve in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. The Ximangduo iron ore project was officially put into operation, but the output increase is expected to be limited this year [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased, and the demand increased marginally. The high inventory still suppresses prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillating range [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price rose, and the inventory increased slightly. The soda - ash futures price rose, and the inventory decreased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy**: The glass market has limited positive factors, and prices are expected to decline. The soda - ash industry has high supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon futures price rose slightly. The prices are in an oscillating range [38]. - **Strategy**: In November, the pricing of the black sector has returned to fundamentals. The iron - water output has continued to decline, and steel demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on rebounds. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is relatively low [39][40][41]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell, and the polysilicon futures price rose. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [42][44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to the authenticity of relevant news and risk control [43][46]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The start - up rate of tire factories was neutral, and inventory data were reported [48][49]. - **Strategy**: Currently, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and quick entry and exit. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [51]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price fell, and the prices of related refined - oil futures also fell. Singapore's oil - product inventory data were reported [52]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price was stable, and the basis and spread data were reported [54]. - **Strategy**: High port inventory continues to suppress prices. The supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price had different changes, and the basis and spread data were reported [55]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to positive news. The domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. The price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [56]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene had different changes, and the supply - demand and inventory data were reported [57]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the port inventory is being destocked. The price of styrene may stop falling periodically [58]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [59]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [60]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [61]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA rising driven by PXN in the medium term [64]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [65][66]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly in November. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [67]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [68]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The supply is limited, and the demand may improve seasonally [69]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand has rebounded seasonally. The price is expected to be supported after the supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [71][72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall, and the demand was weak, but farmers' resistance to low - price sales was increasing [74]. - **Strategy**: In the future, the supply of live pigs is expected to be excessive, and the main strategy is to short on rallies. Currently, an inverse spread strategy is recommended, followed by shorting after rallies [75]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline, and the supply was sufficient while the demand was average [76]. - **Strategy**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [77]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean inventory was at a high level. The soybean meal sales and pick - up were good [78]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybean meal is expected to oscillate. In the short term, soybean meal prices may follow the import cost, and in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [80]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The import of Indian palm oil and other oils decreased. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend [81]. - **Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to oscillate. If there are signals of production decline, a long - position strategy can be adopted [82]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease [83][85]. - **Strategy**: The import control of syrup and premixed powder has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [86]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate, and the spot price fell. The downstream demand was weak, and the开机率 of spinning mills decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate due to weak demand and high supply [88].

Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: November 11, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: After oscillating around 4,100 ringgit, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures started a rebound following the release of the MPOB supply - demand report. It is expected to rise to the 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit range. However, due to slow exports and high production in November, it may face downward pressure at this range and seek support at 4,000 ringgit. With future declines in production and inventory, it may rebound [3]. - **Domestic Market**: Dalian palm oil futures are in a rebound trend. Driven by the Malaysian palm oil, it may reach the annual resistance line around 8,900 yuan, with strong resistance at 8,950 - 9,000 yuan. After filling the gap around 8,950 yuan, it may face downward pressure and potentially test the 8,500 - yuan support [3]. Soybean Oil - The Dalian soybean oil futures are rising, following the BMD palm oil and supported by the decrease in domestic oil inventory. The BMD palm oil had a nearly 12% decline in about a month and has a technical rebound demand. Last weekend, the factory soybean oil inventory decreased by over 90,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils decreased by over 150,000 tons. However, the news of Cofco's 3 - million - ton soybean rotation storage by Sinograin restricts its increase. In the short term, it may still rise slightly, with resistance at 8,300 - 8,330 yuan for the January contract. If CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil rise, it may break through; otherwise, it will enter a volatile adjustment [4]. Soybean Meal - The Dalian soybean meal 01 contract is oscillating. Cost support and poor crushing margins underpin the price, while weak spot prices limit the upside. With the news of Sinograin's 3 - million - ton soybean rotation storage to Cofco, the short - term support range for the main contract may be 3,000 - 3,020 yuan. Spot prices are mostly stable, and the inventory has decreased to 969,000 tons as of the end of the 45th week, a 19.74% week - on - week decrease. However, the near - term basis remains weak [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts increased by 0.92%, 0.71%, and 0.44% respectively. The BMD palm oil main contract rose 1.19% to 4,161 ringgit/ton. The Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil price increased by 140 yuan to 8,740 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 50 yuan to - 90 yuan/ton [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts had a - 0.29%, 0.25%, and 0.31% change respectively. The CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 1.81% to 50.53 cents/pound. The Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot price increased by 50 yuan to 8,400 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 40 yuan to 162 yuan/ton [11]. - **Oil Spreads**: Various oil month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads are provided, such as the P 1 - 5 spread at - 102 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the Y - P 01 spread at - 462 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [5]. Oilseed Futures Price - **Futures Price**: The closing prices and changes of bean meal 01, 05, 09, and rapeseed meal 01, 05, 09 contracts are presented. For example, the bean meal 01 contract closed at 3,054 yuan, down 9 yuan or - 0.29% [16]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contracts of bean meal and rapeseed meal are given, like the M01 - 05 spread at 218 yuan, down 16 yuan; the RM01 - 05 spread at 79 yuan, down 20 yuan [17]. Oil and Oilseed Pressing Profit - **International Soybean**: The international soybean pressing profit, including the US Gulf CNF and Brazilian CNF, is shown. The profit has fluctuated over time, with values ranging from - 500 to 1,000 yuan/ton [30]. - **Imported Rapeseed**: The pressing profit of imported Canadian rapeseed also shows fluctuations, with values from - 1,000 to 1,000 yuan/ton [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term short - selling recommendation for the oil and fat industry [5] 2. Core View of the Report - With the expectation of a looser supply of oils and fats both at the production areas and in the domestic market, the fundamental situation of the oil and fat market is bearish. Attention should be paid to whether there are differences between the expected data in this week's two reports [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil and soybean oil are neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Malaysian palm oil production areas have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter are increasing. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but the amount for commercial crushing is uncertain. There are expectations of peace talks between China and Canada, and there are good harvests in Canada, Australia and other production areas this year [5] - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Indonesian biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, with an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5] - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic oil and fat inventory is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of replenishing inventory due to a large number of purchases by traders. For soybean oil, attention should be paid to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5] - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles. Some of the US biodiesel exemption petitions have been approved, and there is still uncertainty about RVO. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5] - **Investment View**: Short - term short - selling. In the context of the expected looser supply of oils and fats at the production areas and in the domestic market, the oil and fat fundamentals are bearish. Attention should be paid to whether there are differences between the expected data in this week's two reports [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short palm oil and rapeseed oil; Arbitrage: Long Y01 and short P01; Options: Buy call options for protection. Risk concerns include MPOB and USDA reports, unexpected production cuts, and policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][11][14] 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature anomaly forecasts in Southeast Asia in the past and future periods [21][23][25] - **Indonesian and Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand**: It includes the production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia from 2021 to 2025 [33][38][39] - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Differences**: It shows the import quantities of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price differences between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [45][49] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It includes the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of domestic palm oil from 2021 to 2025 [51][53][55] - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It shows the temperature and precipitation distributions in the soybean - producing areas of Argentina and Brazil in the next 15 days, as well as the good - to - excellent rate and harvesting progress of US soybeans [62][65][71] - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It includes the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and monthly export volume of US and Brazilian soybeans, as well as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026 [75][79] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly arrival volume of Chinese soybeans, the weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, the daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and the weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [89] - **Rapeseed Situation**: It includes the precipitation and temperature forecasts in the rapeseed - producing areas of Canada and Europe in the next 15 days, the soil moisture in Canada, the FOB prices of rapeseed in Ukraine, Australia, and Canada, the weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, the import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, the expected arrival volume of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, the weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and the weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the domestic market from 2021 to 2026 [90][99][101]