Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

能源化工日报 2026-01-09 2026/01/09 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 8.60 元/桶，跌幅 2.02%，报 416.20 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 1.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.04%，报 2458.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 33.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.14%，报 2929.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 3.83 百万桶至 419.06 百万桶，环比去库 0.91%；SPR 补库 0.25 百万桶至 413.46 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存累库 7.70 百万桶 至 242.04 百万桶，环比累库 3.29%；柴油库存累库 5.59 百万桶至 129.27 百万桶，环比累库 4.52%；燃料油库存去库 0.06 百万桶至 22.98 百万桶，环比去库 0.27%；航空煤油库存累库 0.05 百万桶至 44.03 百万桶，环比累库 0.11%。 徐绍祖 聚烯 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 橡胶： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周三油价重心继续回落，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌1.14美元至55.99美元/桶，跌幅2.00%。布伦特3月合 约收盘下跌0.74美元至59.96美元/桶，跌幅1.22%。SC2602以415.5元/桶收盘，下跌9.3元/桶，跌幅为 2.19%。美国已达成一项进口价值最高20亿美元委内瑞拉原油的协议，此举预计将增加全球最大石油消 费国的原油供应量，受此消息影响，国际油价于周三下跌。美国与委内瑞拉政府达成的这项协议，初期 或要求原本运往中国的原油船货改变航线。自去年12月中旬以来，因特朗普政府实施出口封锁，委内瑞 拉数百万桶已装载至油轮及储存在油罐中的原油一直无法运出。当前来看，从委内瑞拉原油的量及运输 流向上来看，矛盾在于量未来只增不减，而贸易流向则是西升东降，国内需要关注的是折价油种的替 代，以及能源的溢出效应，传导到电力端。海上航运当前也面临冲击，美国欧洲司令部在社交媒体上发 布消息称，在北大西洋扣押了一艘俄罗斯油轮。随后，美国南方司令部也在社交媒 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.10 美元至 58.32 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.74%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 1.01 美元至 61.76 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.66%。SC2602 以 428.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.3 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.30%。自元旦期间委内瑞拉局势升级后，油价表现超 | | | | 出市场预期，日内多波动，截至收盘上涨。欧佩克发表声明说， | | | | 欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的 8 个主要产油国决定，维持 2025 年 | | | | 11 月初制定的产量计划，在 2026 年 2 月和 3 月继续暂停增产。 | | | | 为维护石油市场稳定，8 国将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏。 | | | 原油 | 作为欧佩克创始成员国，委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明原油储 | 震荡 | | | 量，达 303 亿桶，约占全球总量的 17%。不过 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：短期存在大幅上涨可能性 观点 前期燃料油市场价格小幅反弹，波动仍然较为有限。高硫方面，仅从基本面看，中东稳定的高硫出口和船燃淡季将对价格形成利空影响，但由 于假日期间美国与委内瑞拉的地缘冲突瞬间升级，鉴于委内瑞拉是全球 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价震荡回落，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘下跌 0.13 美元至 57.95 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.22%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘下跌 0.02 美元至 61.92 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.03%。SC2602 合约夜盘收盘在 437 元/桶，下跌 | | | | 1.6 元/桶，跌幅为 0.36%。受新年假期影响，美国能源服务公司贝 | | | | 克休斯本周提前三天发布能源企业活跃钻机数据。数据显示，截 | | | | 至 12 月 30 日当周，作为未来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 | | | | 1 座，至 546 座，为 12 月 12 日以来最高，但仍较上年同期减少 | | | | 43 座，降幅为 7.3%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻机数增加 3 | | | 原油 | 座，至 412 座，为 12 月 12 日以来最高；天然气钻井数减少 2 座 | 震荡 | | | 至 125 座，为 1 ...

燃料油： 周二，上期所燃料油主力合约FU2603收平，报2473元/吨；低硫燃料油主力合约LU2603收跌0.23%，报 2977元/吨。我国2026年第一批低硫燃料油出口退税配额下发，数量为800万吨，与去年同期持平。从基 本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平，高硫燃料油市场则仍有支撑。新加坡预计在未来几周迎 来稳定的低硫燃料油调油组分到货，将持续增加当地现有的库存。亚洲低硫市场预计在1-2月都将保持 供应充足。高硫供应也相对充足，不过受安装脱硫塔的船舶数量增加的推动，下游船用油销售持续走 强，亚洲高硫燃料油市场继续获得一些支撑。短期FU和LU绝对价格或跟随油价波动，上周FU仓单再度 增加，或对盘面产生额外压力。 沥青： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 周二油价震荡回落，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌0.13美元至57.95美元/桶，跌幅0.22%。布伦特2月合约收 盘下跌0.02美元至61.92美元/桶，跌幅0.03%。SC2602合约夜盘收盘在437元/桶，下跌1.6元/桶，跌幅为 0.36%。受新年假期影响，美国能源服务公司贝克休斯本周提前三天发布能源企业活 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | | 周一，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2603 收跌 1.76%，报 2459 元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2603 收跌 1.62%，报 2974 元/吨。从 基本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平，高硫燃料油市 | | | | 场则仍有支撑。新加坡预计在未来几周迎来稳定的低硫燃料油调 | | | 燃料油 | 油组分到货，将持续增加当地现有的库存。亚洲低硫市场预计在 | 震荡 | | | 1-2 月都将保持供应充足。高硫供应也相对充足，不过受安装脱 | | | | 硫塔的船舶数量增加的推动，下游船用油销售持续走强，亚洲高 | | | | 硫燃料油市场继续获得一些支撑。短期 FU 和 LU 绝对价格或跟 | | | | 随油价波动，上周 FU 仓单再度增加，或对盘面产生额外压力。 | | | 沥青 | 周一，上期所沥青主力合约 BU2602 收涨 0.23%，报 3008 元/吨。 | 震荡 | | | 近期稀释沥青港口到货情况短期维持稳定局面，主要 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：盘面反弹，关注供应端变化 | | 本周燃料油市场价格小幅反弹，波动仍然较为有限。高硫方面，中东出口量维持高位，同时，一月份船燃市场将逐步转入传统淡季，高硫价格 | | --- | --- | | | 预计难有持续性 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四 WTI 与布伦特原油期货因圣诞节假期休市，SC2602 以 444.7 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.7 元/桶，涨幅为 0.38%。俄罗斯今年的石油和 凝析油产量与 2024 年大致持平，约为 5.16 亿吨，即约 1032 万桶 | | | | /日。诺瓦克称，俄罗斯将继续以 OPEC+形式开展工作。全球石 | | | | 油市场保持平衡，OPEC+机制在双向调节产量方面成效显著。荷 | | | 原油 | 兰银行 ING 认为，2026 年石油盈余将对油价产生影响。在 OPEC+ | 震荡 | | | 决定以快于预期的速度逐步取消供应削减措施后，石油市场的盈 | | | | 余量在 2026 年内势必会有所增加。尽管今年价格表现疲软，但非 | | | | OPEC 国家的供应预计也将以稳健的速度增长。根据该银行的平 | | | | 衡表，预计到 2026 年将出现超过每日 200 万桶的过剩。进入假 | | | | 期，油价预计延续震 ...