三类GEC价格指数整体下调 据悉，研究中心还公布了2024年和2025年生产的集中式项目、分布式项目与生物质发电三类国内绿证价 格。从表中可以看出，市场预期11月交易的2024年生产的集中式项目绿证价格为2.94元/个，价格指数为 59.39；分布式项目绿证价格为2.26元/个，价格指数为43.22；生物质发电绿证价格为1.31元/个，价格指 数为29.18。市场预期11月交易的2025年生产的集中式项目绿证价格为4.24元/个，价格指数为77.09；分 布式项目绿证价格为3.65元/个，价格指数为74.06；生物质发电绿证价格3.81元/个，价格指数为73.84。 对比2025年10月GEC价格指数，可以看出本月各项绿证价格均发生回落，其中生物质发电绿证价格跌幅 最大。2024年生产的三类绿证从高到低仍然维持了集中式项目、分布式项目、生物质发电的价格排列， 2025年生产的绿证则是集中式项目、生物质发电、分布式项目的排列，不同类型绿证之间的价差均有所 扩大。 10月29日，复旦大学可持续发展研究中心(以下简称"研究中心")公布了2025年11月复旦碳价指数结果。 此次公布了2025年11月全国碳排放配额(简 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 碳市场周报 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference highlighted the transformative changes in global economic governance, emphasizing the significant role of carbon markets and carbon finance, particularly in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Global Economic Governance - Global economic governance is at a critical "crossroads," necessitating a restructuring of the existing framework due to the misalignment between old systems and current developments [2]. - The share of developing economies in global GDP is projected to rise from 25% in 2000 to 45% by 2024, shifting governance discourse towards a more balanced North-South dynamic [2]. - The deepening of South-South cooperation among developing countries facilitates consensus in sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Carbon Market Development - The global carbon market has seen significant progress, with 38 carbon markets operational, covering 23% of global greenhouse gas emissions [4]. - China's carbon market, initiated in 2021, has expanded to include approximately 3,500 enterprises, with a total quota of 8 billion tons, representing 53.33% of the global carbon market quota [4]. - The release of China's first central-level document on carbon market construction and the announcement of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) goals provide a clear development roadmap for the carbon market [4]. Group 3: Future of Carbon Finance - The growth of the carbon market lays a solid foundation for carbon finance innovation, which still has significant untapped potential [5]. - Establishing differentiated internal motivation mechanisms for high-emission enterprises and linking carbon performance to financing costs for small and medium enterprises is essential [5]. - The integration of AI and big data in carbon finance can enhance efficiency and reduce costs, exemplified by innovative practices that significantly lower resource input for banks [5]. Group 4: Carbon Finance Ecosystem - A comprehensive carbon finance ecosystem requires support from third-party professional institutions, data technology companies, and green finance certification bodies [6]. - The establishment of standards and methods for evaluating green low-carbon performance is crucial for advancing the ecosystem [6]. Group 5: Interaction Between Carbon Finance and Green Innovation - Carbon finance must clarify its value orientation towards "zero carbon" to drive innovation and investment in low-carbon technologies [7]. - The interaction between carbon finance and green technology is vital for overcoming challenges faced by enterprises in pursuing environmental sustainability [8]. Group 6: Future Directions for Carbon Finance - The next decade will focus on the internationalization of carbon finance, with significant potential in developing countries [11]. - Key development priorities include creating a unified core carbon market, enhancing market vitality through financial innovation, and strengthening international cooperation [11]. - New financial tools, such as RWA (Real World Assets), can link carbon assets to the market, providing new financing avenues for low-carbon technologies [12].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report name: Carbon Market Weekly Report [2] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers for different areas such as crude oil and fuel (Li Jie, CFA), PTA/MEG (Ren Junchi), industrial silicon/polycrystalline silicon (Peng Haozhou), polyolefins (Peng Jinglin), and pulp (Liu Youran) [3] Group 3: Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In the third week of October, the national carbon market carbon quota price continued to decline. The weekly price was 53.99 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 7.23% [4] - The expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) in October 2025 is 55.39 yuan/ton, the selling price is 60.63 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 58.00 yuan/ton [4] - The expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) in December 2025 is 62.10 yuan/ton, the selling price is 70.45 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 66.28 yuan/ton [4] - The expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) in October 2025 is 69.00 yuan/ton, the selling price is 76.83 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 72.92 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Market News - On September 24, 2025, at the China Carbon Market Conference, Deputy Minister Li Gao of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "National Carbon Market Development Report (2025)", introducing the progress and achievements of the national carbon market since 2024. The Ministry will speed up the construction of a unified national carbon market, improve the system, expand the coverage, enhance market vitality, enrich trading varieties, and strengthen international cooperation [6] - Minister Huang Runqiu reported on China's work on climate change response, carbon peaking, and carbon neutrality. Although significant achievements have been made, challenges remain in green and low - carbon transformation. Some localities are still blindly launching "two high" (high - energy - consuming and high - polluting) projects, which is contrary to the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The carbon market is a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting green transformation in China, with significant growth and participation observed in recent years [1][3]. Market Overview - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, covering over 60% of China's carbon dioxide emissions, with a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The number of key emission units that have opened trading accounts has reached 1,277 as of August 2025, indicating an increase in market participants [3]. Market Changes and Opportunities - The expansion of the carbon market to include steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials has diversified market participants, enhancing trading opportunities and market development [3][5]. - The trading volume in the carbon market has increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, with significant growth in transaction numbers and active participants [5]. Local Market Dynamics - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to play a supportive role in achieving local "dual carbon" goals while adapting to the national carbon market's expansion [6][7]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 regulated enterprises, contributing to its trading activity [7]. Future Plans and Mechanisms - The Shanghai Environmental Energy Exchange is focusing on expanding industry coverage, researching paid allocation mechanisms, and enhancing market participant diversity [10][11]. - The transition to a "paid allocation + total control" model is anticipated during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an emphasis on policy coordination to achieve national carbon reduction targets [12][13].

Core Insights - The construction of the carbon market is accelerating, with a maturing institutional framework [1][3] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - In two months, 13 new methodologies for the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market (CCER) have been released for public consultation, indicating a significant push in top-level design [2][3] - The rapid expansion of methodologies signifies that the core institutional system of the national voluntary carbon market is being improved, providing clearer policy expectations and a more stable trading environment [3] Group 2: Climate Governance Expansion - The newly released methodologies cover a wide range of areas, focusing on deep energy savings in public buildings, biomass cogeneration, and the recovery of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reflecting a shift from single-point to multi-point climate governance [4] - China's new round of national contributions aims for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, indicating a broader scope of climate governance beyond just carbon emissions [4] Group 3: Valuation of Ecological Products - The CCER methodologies have quantified carbon sink benefits into tradable products, with cumulative trading volume exceeding 3.19 million tons and total transaction value surpassing 267 million yuan [5] - The inclusion of coastal salt marshes and seagrass beds in the methodologies fundamentally establishes a pricing mechanism for previously "priceless" ecological resources, facilitating the transformation of ecological assets into economic value [5] Group 4: Economic Incentives for Transitioning Industries - CCER provides crucial economic incentives for projects with significant environmental benefits, helping them overcome initial investment barriers and improve cash flow during transitional phases [6] - For instance, the CCER revenue can significantly enhance the cash flow of biomass power generation projects, supporting the industry's green transition [6] Group 5: International Influence and Standards - China's active participation in the international voluntary carbon market can alter the current dominance of Western countries in rule-making and standard-setting [7] - The release of methodologies in areas like geothermal energy and sulfur hexafluoride recovery positions China as a leader, potentially influencing global standards and enhancing its voice in international climate governance [7]

碳市场建设正全面提速，制度框架趋于成熟。 8月15日，生态环境部就《温室气体自愿减排项目方法学 纯农林生物质并网发电、热电联产》等4项方 法学公开征求意见。 两个月时间，13项CCER方法学"大爆发"的背后，实质上是顶层设计下的有序推进。根据《中共中央办 公厅 国务院办公厅关于推进绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意见》设定的目标，到2027年，全国 温室气体自愿减排交易市场实现重点领域全覆盖。此次发布的方法学，正是对这一战略蓝图的有力落 实，传递出多重深刻信号。 信号一：碳市场建设正全面提速，制度框架趋于成熟 方法学作为碳市场交易的"规则书"，其密集出台绝非偶然。这标志着全国自愿碳市场核心制度体系正在 加快完善，为CCER市场提供了更明确的政策预期和更稳定的交易环境。 随着方法学体系的不断丰富，越来越多的减排项目将被纳入市场体系，这将显著增强市场流动性，吸引 更多社会资本和多元主体参与。从国际成熟碳市场的发展经验看，健全的方法学体系是市场健康运行的 基石。此次方法学的快速扩容，预示着我国碳市场建设已进入快车道，正朝着2027年实现重点领域全覆 盖的目标稳步迈进。 信号二：气候治理已超越碳排放治理，从单点突破到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant transformation in global climate governance, highlighting the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting green low-carbon transitions as a universal consensus. China's commitment to achieving its "dual carbon" goals showcases its responsibility as a major power, with the carbon market playing a crucial role in ecological civilization construction [1]. Summary by Sections Development of China's Carbon Market - China's carbon market has evolved from local pilot programs to a national unified market, covering 60% of carbon emissions and becoming the largest carbon market globally. The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a new phase of comprehensive deepening in carbon market development [1][2]. Market Achievements and Trends - As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 680 million tons, with a total transaction value exceeding 47.41 billion yuan. The market has shown stability, with a nearly 100% compliance rate for allowance submissions in 2024. The market is set to expand in 2025 to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, which together account for approximately 2.5 billion tons of CO2 emissions [3][4]. Policy Innovations and Institutional Breakthroughs - The "Opinions" provide a systematic framework for the national carbon market, outlining medium- and long-term development goals. By 2027, the market aims to cover major industrial sectors, and by 2030, it will establish a mixed allocation system combining free and paid distribution of allowances [6][7]. Market Mechanisms and Financial Innovations - The carbon market is transitioning from intensity-based allocation to total control, with a phased approach to implement total control by 2030. The introduction of a "mandatory + voluntary" dual-track market system aims to enhance flexibility and inclusivity, encouraging broader participation in emission reduction efforts [8][9]. Challenges and Opportunities - Despite significant progress, challenges remain, including the predominance of free allocation methods and the need for improved market stability mechanisms. However, the potential for financial innovation, such as carbon pledges and repurchase policies, presents opportunities for enhancing market vitality and developing new carbon financial products [10][13]. Future Directions - The article suggests that future efforts should focus on establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework, enhancing market mechanisms, and fostering international cooperation to strengthen China's position in global carbon governance. This includes developing carbon financial products and improving data governance to support market efficiency [14][15][16].

许正宇又指，与国际对接向来为香港强项，将以此作为定位，积极助力内地CCER标准"输出国际"。当 局首要工作，是联同内地监管及相关机构，研究应如何参与国际碳市场，包括制定自愿碳信用的标准和 方法等，并推动整套体系在国际上获得认可， 他又提到，未来亦会争取中资机构的海外减排项目，到港交所的自愿碳市场挂牌交易，长远会与大湾区 碳市场合作，试验跨境交易结算路径，以及碳市场互联互通，但强调碳市场的本质与股市不同，并非投 资或投机，而是用来满足减排需要，以达至碳中和的工具。 他表示，内地的自愿碳市场CCER，目前尚在转型阶段，并只允许国内公司参与，外资无法进场，香港 可以用"国际对接"的定位，助力内地CCER标准"输出国际"。 智通财经APP获悉，香港财经事务及库务局局长许正宇表示，香港具备独特优势，可担当内地与国际对 接的关键桥梁，短期将先参与内地商讨制定自愿碳信用的标准及方法，随后可争取中资在海外的减排项 目来港上架交易，长远则致力探索碳市场的互联互通。 ...

Core Insights - China has announced a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to peak levels, with non-fossil energy consumption reaching over 30% of total energy consumption [6][7] - The country has established the world's largest carbon market, covering over 60% of carbon dioxide emissions after including steel, cement, and aluminum industries [6][8] Regulatory Voices - The Minister of Ecology and Environment, Huang Runqiu, stated that nearly 20 million high-emission vehicles will be eliminated during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - The Deputy Minister of Ecology and Environment, Li Gao, emphasized the acceleration of building a unified national carbon market and expanding its coverage [4] - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Lu Lei, highlighted the importance of financial institutions in carbon accounting and sustainable information disclosure [4] Policy Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has initiated revisions to the pricing methods for electricity transmission and distribution to adapt to the new requirements of a modern power system [6] - The NDRC and the National Energy Administration released implementation opinions to promote the integration of artificial intelligence in the energy sector [6] Industry Insights - The China Alcohol Industry ESG Rating Platform 2.0 has been updated to cover all categories of alcoholic beverages, expanding from three to over ten categories [8] - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has launched a platform to support renewable energy projects, including a target of adding 10 million kilowatts of photovoltaic and wind power capacity [8] - A recent document from the Central Government emphasizes the urgency for companies to disclose ESG information, with 2,523 A-share listed companies having released their 2024 ESG reports, achieving a disclosure rate of 46.49% [8] Event Highlights - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair showcased advancements in hydrogen energy applications and zero-carbon park developments, indicating a significant shift towards green transformation in China's economic development [10][11] - The fair also featured discussions on how technology, including AI and remote sensing, can drive the green transformation of industries and support climate governance [10]