· 2026 年 3 月 6 日 星期五 国都港股操作导航 网址：www.guodu.com.hk 每日投资策略 港股止跌回稳 后市料可稳守 2 万 5 伊朗传欲间接向美国提出和谈，港股昨日跟随亚太区股 市普遍反弹，恒指一度升近 500 点，惟整体表现虎头蛇尾， 升幅在午市逐步蒸发并曾倒跌，全日最终收升 71 点完场，止 三连跌。港股短线止跌回稳，后市有望稳守 2 万 5。 恒指昨日高开 334 点后，曾最多升 487 点，高见 25736 点，回补大部分昨日下跌裂口，惟随即涌现后回吐压力，升 幅逐步收窄，午市呈好淡角力，大市一度倒跌最多 12 点，低 见 25236 点后回稳，尾段重拾升势，收市升 71 点或 0.28%， 报 25321 点。国指跌 32 点或 0.38%，报 8451 点；科指跌 33 点或 0.69%，报 4796 点。大市全日成交 3218.72 亿元。 海外市场重要指数 收市 幅度 道琼斯工业指数 47954.74 -1.61 标普 500 指数 6830.71 -0.56 纳斯达克综合指数 22748.99 -0.26 英国富时 100 指数 10413.94 -1.45 德国 ...

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Monetary Policy Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on February 27, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 269 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 269 billion yuan for the day [1] Market Liquidity - The interbank market liquidity remains stable and slightly easing, with the DR001 weighted average rate declining by 2 basis points to around 1.34%. Overnight quotes on the anonymous click system (X-repo) fell to 1.33%-1.34%, indicating ample supply [3] - Non-bank institutions needed to borrow funds for three days in advance due to a holiday, quoting around 1.55%-1.58% using credit bonds as collateral, reflecting a balanced supply and demand [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.58%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Government Bonds and Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.07%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts increased by 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.03% respectively [9] Local Government Bonds - As of February 25, the issuance of local government bonds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with several provinces planning to issue approximately 2.28 trillion yuan in bonds in the first two months of the year, representing a 22% increase compared to the same period last year [10][11] - Specific bond issuances include 449.76 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds from Fujian Province and 182.48 billion yuan in general bonds from Henan Province, with various maturities [11] Global Economic Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for early and significant interest rate cuts, suggesting a need for a 100 basis point reduction by 2026 to mitigate potential economic downturn risks [12] - A White House official indicated that executives from major tech companies will participate in a meeting to ensure that energy demands from new AI data centers do not increase electricity prices for ordinary Americans [12]

2月20日，港股迎来马年首个交易日，三大指数集体低开。马年春晚机器人亮相引发市场广泛关注，机 器人概念股逆势走强，成为今日最亮眼的主线。 Wind数据显示，截至午间收盘，恒生指数跌0.6%，恒生科技指数跌2.28%，恒生中国企业指数跌 0.59%。 来源：中国证券报 | < W | 智谱(2513) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02-20 11:59:58 | | | | | | 605.000 ® 18.4亿 | 股本 4.46亿 市容 | | -137 万得 | | | | | | 12 1 | | | 97.000 19.09% 换 1.42% | 市值 2697亿 市净 | -40 | | | | 分时 五日 HK | 周K | | 月K 中文 | | | 營加 | 均价:585.285 | | 盘口 成交 | | | 65.000 | | | 25.00% 卖10 609.500 200(2) | | | | | | 卖9 609.000 1800(9) | | | | | | 卖8 608.500 100(1) | | | | | | 美7 ...

格隆汇2月20日｜中东局势再趋紧张，避险情绪升温，美股隔晚下跌，港股在马年首个交易日弱势震 荡。截至半日收盘，恒生科技指数跌2.28%，恒指跌0.61%报26544.12点，国企指数跌0.59%。科技股集 体下跌，AI应用、机器人、存储、石油股逆势上涨。恒生指数成分股中，中石油涨超5%，恒基地产、 中海油涨超3%，李宁、信达生物涨超2%；恒生科技指数成分股中，百度、金蝶国际、哔哩哔哩、京东 健康跌超5%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

美国或将再次修改非农数据，特朗普的经济顾问给出了暗示。然而，美国的修改数据举动，影响的不仅 是纸面上的东西，甚至整个世界的"经济"价值都可能被改变，为什么这么说？ 当地时间2月11日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）还未发布1月的非农数据报告，就有市场预测认为，BLS会 再次下修非农数据，而且幅度会是"百万级"。而且，特朗普的首席经济顾问、白宫国家经济委员会主任 凯文·哈塞特已经表示，鉴于美国人口增长速度在下滑，那么美国未来的就业人数也会减少，这显然是 暗示将会下修非农数据。然而，美国在2024年和2025年都进行了这个举动，若这次再这么做，将是连续 三年下修。事实上，美国在过去25年内，进行了多达300次的就业数据修正。恐怕，美国经济的"皇帝新 装"，已经维持不下去了。 而对美国可能再次下修非农数据的举动，有分析指出，有三方面的情况值得重点关注。 第一，美国多次下修非农数据，不仅是"失信于全球"，还可能造成整个世界对"经济"理解的重铸。 实际上，经济数据存在偏差是无法避免的情况，无论采取多么精确的统计方法，都不能确保数据的真实 性、及时性和准确性。然而，美国政府的修正幅度如此之大，使得公布的数据已经脱离了"可控误差 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.43% to 27,299.62 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.1% to 5,510.82 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.41% to 9,280.92 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly saw gains, with Alibaba up by 0.81%, JD.com up by 0.64%, Xiaomi up by 4.72%, and NetEase up by 1.04%, while Tencent fell by 0.54% [1] Company Earnings - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a significant increase in performance, with projected sales revenue of $9.327 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a net profit of $685 million, up by 39.1% [2] - SMIC's average capacity utilization rate reached 93.5% for the year, with Q4 utilization hitting 95.7% [2] - PCCW reported a 7% increase in revenue to HKD 40.252 billion, with a 16% reduction in losses [2] Corporate Developments - Minth Group plans to establish a joint venture with Aisin and Toyota to produce aluminum vehicle body frames, strengthening its supply chain in North America [3] - Singlomics completed a placement raising HKD 835 million, with 90% allocated for global Phase III clinical trials of its obesity drug ASC30 [5] - Huatai Securities completed a zero-coupon convertible bond issuance of HKD 10 billion [6] Market Insights - CICC noted that the recent pullback in the Hong Kong market is due to three pressures: hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, doubts about AI capital expenditure returns, and lower-than-expected PMI [7] - The market is expected to have limited upward space in the medium term, with a target range for the Hang Seng Index between 28,000 and 29,000 points [7] - Analysts suggest focusing on essential retail and technology hardware sectors for potential growth [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy in early 2026 shows a complex situation. The GDP growth rate slows down, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs fluctuate. The consumer price index and producer price index have different trends, and the investment and consumption data also show certain changes. In the commodity market, there are adjustments in futures contract rules and price fluctuations in various commodities. The financial market has changes in monetary policy, bond market, and exchange rate market, and the stock market shows different trends in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][38][39]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1]. - In December 2025, social financing scale was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month, and PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, up from - 2.3% in the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin levels of various futures contracts from February 12, 2026 [2]. - Bank of China adjusted the margin ratios of gold and silver deferred contracts from February 11 [2]. - On February 10, 41 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis [3]. - The China Futures Association drafted a management rule for stress testing of futures companies' trading and settlement systems and solicited public opinions [3]. - Heraeus Limited was approved as an overseas standard gold ingot provider by the Shanghai Gold Exchange and can trade and deliver since February 5, 2026 [4]. - Fed officials Logan and Hamark said the Fed's policy stance was close to neutral and there might be no need for further rate cuts if inflation fell and the labor market remained stable [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - On February 11, spot gold reached $5050, up 0.53% for the day, and spot silver reached $81 per ounce, up 0.81% for the day [5]. - Chow Tai Fook may adjust the price of gold products in mid - March, with an expected increase of 15% - 30% for fixed - price products [5]. - The price of indium has reached a more than ten - year high, up more than 55% since last September [5]. - In December, Codelco's copper production increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 181,400 tons, while the copper production of Collahuasi Mine decreased by 12.1% year - on - year to 36,200 tons [6]. - As of February 10, 2026, the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.34 tons to 1079.32 tons [6]. - On February 9, tin and copper inventories reached new highs, while aluminum, zinc, and lead inventories decreased [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The White House will hold a coal - related event on Wednesday [8]. - The US Trade Representative is conducting negotiations on key minerals, including with Mexico and India, and expects to finalize an agreement with Indonesia in the next few weeks. Japan and the US will discuss a project supported by a $550 - billion investment tool [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Zhoushan was approved to carry out the mixed - export business of marine bio - fuel oil [9]. - The US Energy Information Administration predicted that US natural gas production would reach a record high in 2026, while demand would remain stable. It also provided forecasts for oil demand and prices [9][10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Beef prices showed a slight upward trend as the Spring Festival approached. Egg prices declined due to sufficient supply and weakening demand [11]. - The US Department of Agriculture's February forecast for US soybean production, ending stocks, and yield in the 2025/2026 season remained unchanged from January [12]. - Bangladesh will purchase soybeans, wheat, cotton, and corn. Brazil's February exports of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to increase [13]. - The India Cotton Association expects the cotton supply in the 2025 - 26 season to be 42.8 million bales [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 10, the central bank conducted 311.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 205.9 billion yuan [15]. - On February 10, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted a 150 - billion - yuan central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit auction, with an interest rate of 1.73% [15]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use policy tools flexibly, and normalize treasury bond trading operations [16]. - The 21st session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from February 25 - 26, with multiple draft laws to be reviewed [17]. - The market regulatory authority approved a batch of important national standards in various fields [17]. - Five ministries jointly issued a guide for the construction of the science and technology service industry standard system [18]. - In January 2026, investment in digital economy - related fields was active, and consumption increased [18]. - Fiscal expenditure is shifting from infrastructure to "new - quality productivity" [19]. - The focus of the real estate market in 2026 is to stabilize the market, reduce inventory, strengthen housing security, and promote urban renewal [20]. - In 2025, the national social logistics volume increased by 5.1% year - on - year, with significant growth in the logistics volume of industrial robots and new - energy vehicles [20]. - Local debt resolution is in a critical stage, and some areas have completed debt - clearing tasks [20]. - Some real - estate enterprises have new financing activities, but the financing environment has only "point - like improvement" [21]. - Banks have issued a large number of large - denomination certificates of deposit, with a short - term trend and differentiated product strategies [21]. - The wealth management scale of large - scale wealth management companies declined in January 2026, but there are positive expectations for the future [22][23]. - Small and medium - sized banks have raised deposit interest rates at the beginning of the year [23]. - Tianjin's first batch of ESG - standardized bonds for financial leasing were issued [23]. - Alphabet issued a 750 - million - pound 100 - year bond, with over 7 - fold over - subscription [24]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March is 21.6%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 78.4% [24]. - Japan's national debt reached a record high at the end of 2025 [25]. - Ray Dalio warned that the US is in the "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle and recommended holding 5% - 15% of gold in the investment portfolio [26]. - There were various bond - related events, including credit rating adjustments and disciplinary actions [27]. - Overseas credit rating agencies adjusted the credit ratings of some Chinese real - estate enterprises [28]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with government bonds performing better than policy - financial bonds. The money market interest rates mostly increased [29][31]. - The exchange - traded bond market had active trading, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible bond index declined [29][30]. - The yields of European and US government bonds declined [33]. 3.3.4 Exchange Rate Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 155 points to 6.9129 at the close on February 11. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 65 points [34]. - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non - US currencies fell [34]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the liquidity of urban investment bonds will continue to differentiate, and 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds have high cost - performance [35]. - CITIC Securities points out that the consumption during the Spring Festival and the policy from local two sessions are the focuses in Q1, and the industrial destocking speed after March and the implementation of new industrial policies are crucial for the annual economic recovery [35]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income suggests that investors focus on the coupon strategy for Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds in 2026 and pay attention to the yields of offshore urban investment dim - sum bonds and bonds of banks and financial services sectors [36]. - Yangtze River Fixed - Income believes that the spread changes of local bonds are affected by market trading and policies, and there are differences in liquidity and trading preferences among different provinces [36]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On February 11, 280 bonds were listed, 74 bonds were issued, 75 bonds were due for payment, and 89 bonds were due for principal and interest repayment [37]. 3.4 Stock Market News - On February 11, the A - share market showed narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.37%. AI application stocks and some concept stocks were active, while photovoltaic and consumer stocks were weak [38]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.58%, and AI application stocks and innovative drug concept stocks rose. Southbound funds had a small net purchase, and Tencent Holdings was sold [39]. - Foreign institutions are optimistic about Chinese assets, believing that China has a complete industrial chain, strong innovation ability, and attractive valuations [39].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 27,027.16 points, up 1.76% or 467.21 points, and a total trading volume of 255.14 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.34% to 5,417.6 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.52% to 9,168.33 points [1] - Analysts from Galaxy Securities noted a significant "Spring Festival effect" in the market, driven by optimistic sentiment and early capital allocation [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Innovent Biologics (01801) led the blue-chip stocks, surging 7.42% to 85.4 HKD, contributing 15.57 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - The company announced a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to advance global R&D in oncology and immunology, receiving an upfront payment of 350 million USD and potential milestone payments up to 8.5 billion USD [2] - Other notable blue-chip movements included Pop Mart (09992) up 5.76%, Zijin Mining (02899) up 5.58%, while China Telecom (00728) and China Mobile (00941) saw declines of 2.96% and 2.12%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks showed positive performance, with Baidu rising over 3%, Tencent up over 2%, and Alibaba increasing by 1.87% [3] - AI application stocks were particularly strong, with Zhipu AI soaring over 36% to a new high [3] - The gold sector rebounded significantly, with spot gold returning to 5,000 USD per ounce, leading to gains in gold stocks [3][6] AI and Technology Developments - Recent financial reports from Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft indicated a potential capital expenditure of 660 billion USD in AI infrastructure this year [4] - Zhipu AI's stock rose 36.22% to 276.8 HKD, reflecting strong market interest in AI applications [4] - The Chinese government is focusing on building a national computing power interconnection node system, which may further stimulate the AI sector [4] New Market Entrants - Lanqi Technology (06809) debuted with a remarkable 63.72% increase, closing at 175 HKD, following its IPO pricing at 106.89 HKD per share [9] - The company specializes in integrated circuit design for cloud computing and AI infrastructure [9] - Additionally,兆易创新 (03986) saw an 11.43% rise to 314 HKD, supported by its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program and positive earnings forecasts [10]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced volatility on February 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.25% at 4065.58 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.73% [1] - The overall market turnover decreased to 2.16 trillion yuan, marking a continuous six-day decline in trading volume [1] Sector Performance - The chemical and new energy sectors led the market, while the pharmaceutical sector showed relative resilience. Consumer goods experienced a pullback, and technology continued to be sluggish [1] - The chemical ETF (516020) saw a significant inflow of 199 billion yuan, with a daily gain of 2.37% after reaching a peak increase of 3.45% during the day [2][5][6][8] Chemical Sector Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward cycle, driven by increased demand for lithium batteries and key chemical materials [9][10] - Major stocks in the chemical sector, such as Enjie Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Longsheng, saw significant gains, with some stocks rising over 6% [6][9] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector demonstrated resilience, with the non-ferrous ETF (159876) reversing early losses to close slightly up by 0.18% despite fluctuations in international gold prices [3][11] - Over 100 billion yuan of main funds flowed into the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating strong investor interest [11] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market experienced a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both closing down over 1% [3] - Despite the overall decline, there was significant buying activity from southbound funds, with purchases reaching 133.7 billion HKD, 249.8 billion HKD, and 148.6 billion HKD over three days [4] Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector showed signs of recovery, with the innovative drug ETF (520880) rising by 2% during the day, driven by strong earnings forecasts from key companies [15][16] - Notable performers included Innovent Biologics, which projected a revenue increase of approximately 134% by 2025, and several other companies expecting significant profit growth [16][18] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the chemical sector remains a promising investment opportunity, particularly in leading companies and price recovery products [10][22] - For investors looking to capitalize on the pharmaceutical sector, the innovative drug ETF (520880) and the medical ETF (159137) are recommended for their strong growth potential and coverage of key industry players [21][22]