证券研究报告·有色金属年度策略·工业金属 2）全球精炼铜需求2024年中国占比58%，美国占比6% 。2016-2024年，全球精炼铜消费量呈现稳健上升态势，CAGR为2%，2024年中国/美国消费精炼铜 1557/162万吨，yoy+1.3%/+0.5%，贡献全球总消费量58%/6%。2025年1-8月需求量增量主要贡献国家为中国、日本、德国等，墨西哥、芬兰需求量有所减 少。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心观点 1）2025年1-8月全球供需持续维持紧平衡态势，铜价整体高位运行或抑制需求。供需角度，根据ICSG数据来看，2025年1-8月精铜持续维持紧平衡态势，除 了需求淡季外，上半年铜价高位、矿端扰动增强推动冶炼加速生产，精铜供给较为饱满，2025年1-8月月均供给过剩0.8万吨。 2025年铜价高位运行，1-11月 铜价均价为9704美元/吨，yoy+6%。 我们判断2025年上游矿端供给短缺主要在矿端扰动、现货冶炼端加工费过低体现，并非下游需求真实产生显著短缺缺口，情绪角度反应高于基本面角度，2026 年铜价走势我们预计仍需重点关注上游矿山情况。 3）2025年中国需求稳健增长，分品类来看，精 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to experience an overall upward trend in prices in 2025, with the highest price reaching 88,700 yuan/ton, influenced by multiple factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical issues, and supply-demand disturbances. Looking ahead to 2026, a widening supply-demand gap and price increases are anticipated due to sustained tight supply, optimized demand structure, and loose liquidity, highlighting the investment value of the copper industry [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - Global copper mine supply is under long-term pressure, with a growth rate of only 1.77% expected in 2024, the lowest in recent years, due to declining ore grades, insufficient new discoveries, and lengthy development cycles of up to 17 years [1]. - In 2025, supply disruptions increased significantly, with incidents such as the Grasberg mine disaster in Indonesia, power outages in Chile, and mechanical failures leading to a year-on-year decrease of 134,000 tons in global copper mine output [1][2]. - The concentration of global copper production is high, with the top ten copper mines accounting for 23.96% of total output, making the supply chain vulnerable to disruptions from single mine shutdowns [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - Demand characteristics show a stable traditional demand and a high growth in new demand, with China accounting for 58% of global copper demand, supported by manufacturing and grid investments. The re-industrialization in the U.S. and India's development further opens up demand space [2]. - New energy sectors, including electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power, are expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 7.83% from 2026 to 2030, significantly increasing copper consumption compared to traditional sectors [2]. - AI-related demand is surging, with AI servers using several times more copper than traditional servers, and the expected increase in copper demand from AI applications could reach 764,800 tons by 2030 [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will release liquidity, providing financial support for copper prices. Despite uncertainties in the rate cut path, copper is expected to perform well as a risk asset amid expectations of an economic soft landing [2]. - Improved Sino-U.S. relations are expected to reduce market uncertainties and lessen short-term pressure on copper prices [2]. Price Outlook - The global copper market is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap in 2026, with LME copper prices expected to reach $13,000/ton and Shanghai copper prices potentially exceeding 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear upward trend in copper prices in the long term [2]. Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper are expected to benefit significantly from the industry's favorable cycle due to their scale advantages and potential for capacity growth [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Buy" [1] Core Views - The copper mining output interference rate is increasing, leading to a long-term supply shortage due to insufficient exploration spending. The global copper supply is expected to decrease in the coming years, with significant reductions in output from major projects like Grasberg, Kakula, and Batu Hijau [2][4] - Demand for copper is structurally improving due to sustained investments in AI and renewable energy. Traditional demand remains stable, while new demand from AI and energy revolutions is expected to grow significantly, increasing its share of overall demand from 16% in 2023 to 22% by 2030 [2][37] - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive copper prices higher, with projections of LME copper prices reaching $13,000 per ton and Shanghai copper prices exceeding ¥100,000 per ton in 2026 [2][30] Supply and Demand Analysis - The global copper mining supply is expected to decline, with a projected output of 2.35 million tons in 2025, down 13.4 million tons from 2024. Recovery in production from major mines is anticipated in 2026-2027, contributing to a gradual increase in supply [23][36] - The copper supply is highly concentrated, with the top 16 copper producers accounting for 58.87% of global output. Any production halts at these major mines could significantly impact supply [14][30] - The interference rate in copper mining supply is high, with multiple incidents in 2025 leading to production downgrades. This trend is expected to continue, affecting the recovery of production in the coming years [16][22] Price Trends - Copper prices have shown an overall upward trend since 2025, influenced by various factors including supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. The highest price reached was ¥88,700 per ton in Q4 2025 [8][24] - The TC price for copper concentrate has been declining, reaching a historical low of $42.21 per ton by mid-November 2025, which has put pressure on the smelting sector [26][30] New Demand Drivers - The demand for copper is being driven by the growth of AI, electric vehicles, and renewable energy sectors. The copper consumption in electric vehicles is 2-3 times higher than in traditional vehicles, and significant copper is required for solar and wind energy installations [44][45] - AI data centers are expected to significantly increase copper demand due to their high power requirements and the need for extensive wiring and cooling systems [49][53] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are a key focus, with potential rate cuts expected to influence copper prices positively. The market is currently assessing the timing and impact of these cuts on economic conditions [56][62] - Liquidity tightening has been affecting copper prices, but there are expectations for relief in December 2025 as the Fed may halt its balance sheet reduction [62][63]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 供给：9月全球铜精矿产量环比-0.3% （1）铜矿：2025年7月中国铜精矿产量为13.8 万吨，环比-6.3%，同比-1.6%；9月全球铜精矿产量为191.4 万吨，环比-0.3%。（2）废铜：截至2025年11月21日，精废价差为2675 元/吨，环比11月14日-813 元/吨。 冶炼：10月电解铜进口量同比-21.5%，出口量同比+542% 1）产量：2025年10月SMM中国电解铜产量109.16万吨，环比-2.6%，同比+9.6%。（2）TC：截至2025年 11月21日，TC现货价为-41.82 美元/吨，环比11月14日+0.0 美元/吨，处2007年9月以来低位。（3）进出 口：10月电解铜进口量同比-21.5%，出口 ...

Core Insights - The prices of precious metals, particularly copper, have surged significantly, attracting global attention, with LME three-month copper and Shanghai copper contracts reaching historical highs [1] - The rising costs of copper raw materials have led to substantial pressure on downstream industries, with a reported 18% reduction in production among small and medium enterprises in the copper supply chain [2] - The copper industry is experiencing a shift in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by factors such as geopolitical events and currency fluctuations, alongside traditional demand stagnation [5][6] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, reaching historical highs, with significant volatility impacting different segments of the industry [3] - The supply side is under pressure, with global copper mine supply growth at only 1.6%, while smelting capacity is expanding rapidly, leading to a potential supply shortage [6] - The demand for copper is being driven by new applications in AI and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to offset declines in traditional demand from construction and manufacturing [5][7] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Many copper smelting plants are facing operational challenges due to depleting raw material inventories and declining by-product prices, leading to increased production cuts [2][4] - The high volatility in copper prices is causing significant operational risks for midstream companies, with many opting to reduce inventory levels and even halt production temporarily [4] - The transition towards aluminum as a substitute for copper in various applications is accelerating due to rising copper costs, which may impact long-term copper demand [2][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish on copper prices in the medium to long term, driven by structural supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging technologies [7][8] - The copper market is expected to experience a short-term balance but may face a structural shortage by 2026, with prices potentially exceeding 90,000 yuan per ton [7] - The copper industry is transitioning towards higher quality production and efficiency, moving away from previous expansion strategies, which may lead to increased competitiveness and innovation [8]

| 铝产业链期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 | | | 周围观 | Z0015979 | | 价格及价差 现值 前值 涨跌 | | | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 21380 | 21570 | -190.0 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 0 | -10 | 10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 长江 铝A00 21380 | 21570 | -190.0 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 0 | -10 | 10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 2770 | 2770 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 2860 | 2860 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氢化铝(山西)-平均价 2835 | 2840 | -5.0 | -0.18% | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(广西)-平均价 2910 | 2910 | 0.0 | ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Group 1: Aluminum Market - The logic of aluminum shortage is expected to gradually materialize, leading to an upward cycle in aluminum prices, with electrolytic aluminum profits continuing to expand [3] - Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.48% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin for electrolytic aluminum rose by 5.40% to 6,051 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory levels show an increase in London aluminum stock by 0.57% to 552,400 tons and Shanghai aluminum stock by 1.38% to 114,900 tons, while domestic spot inventory decreased by 0.16% to 619,000 tons [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to macroeconomic factors, with London copper, Shanghai copper, and US copper showing respective changes of +0.99%, +1.12%, and +1.86% [2] - Domestic copper inventory is decreasing, with London copper at 136,000 tons, New York copper at 381,000 short tons, and Shanghai copper at 109,000 tons, showing changes of -0.13%, +3.23%, and -4.89% respectively [2] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased by 4.91 percentage points to 66.88% [2] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium demand has exceeded expectations, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 5.91% to 85,200 yuan/ton and spodumene concentrate increasing by 8.52% to 1,006 USD/ton [4][5] - Lithium carbonate production reached 21,500 tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1%, while weekly inventory decreased by 2.8% to 120,500 tons [4][5] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as inventory continues to decline [5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The tight supply of cobalt raw materials remains unchanged, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising, as MB cobalt increased by 0.53% to 23.65 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices rose by 3.39% to 397,000 yuan/ton [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, transitioning to a quota system, but current export approvals are still pending, indicating a continued tight supply in the short term [5]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 供给：本周精废价差环比+500元/吨 （1）铜矿：2025年7月中国铜精矿产量为13.8 万吨，环比-6.3%，同比-1.6%；8月全球铜精矿产量为193.7万 吨，环比-0.3%。（2）废铜：截至2025年11月14日，精废价差为3488 元/吨，环比11月7日+500 元/吨。 冶炼：本周TC现货价环比-0.5美元/吨 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：短期铜价震荡，需求修复后仍看好铜价上行 截至2025年11月14日，SHFE铜收盘价86900 元/吨，环比11月7日+1.12%；LME铜收盘价10846 美元/吨，环比 11月7日+1.41%。（1）宏观：短期宏观扰动减弱。（2）供需：自由港削减2025-2026年铜产量，供给后续仍维 持紧张 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, but there is optimism for an upward trend due to demand recovery. As of November 14, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 86,900 CNY/ton, up 1.12% from November 7, and LME copper closed at 10,846 USD/ton, up 1.41% [1]. - Supply remains tight as Freeport has reduced copper production for 2025-2026, while cable companies are seeing a recovery in operating rates amid rising copper prices. The demand-supply balance is expected to remain tight, supporting further price increases [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 1.1%, while LME copper inventory fell by 0.4%. As of November 14, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 648,000 tons, up 2.9% from the previous week [2][26]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 621,000 tons as of November 10, 2025, up 2.5% from November 3. LME copper global inventory was 136,000 tons, down 0.4% [2][26]. Supply - The price difference between refined and scrap copper increased by 500 CNY/ton this week, reaching 3,488 CNY/ton as of November 14, 2025 [2][55]. - China's copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [2][47]. Smelting - The TC spot price decreased by 0.5 USD/ton this week, with the current TC spot price at -41.82 USD/ton, the lowest since September 2007 [3][62]. - China's electrolytic copper production in October 2025 was 1.0916 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 9.6% year-on-year [3][67]. Demand - Cable companies' operating rates increased by 0.9 percentage points this week, reaching 64.36% as of November 13, 2025 [3][76]. - Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 23.7% in November, 12.8% in December, but improve by 16.1% in January 2026 [3][94]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 6% this week, with a total position of 192,000 lots as of November 14, 2025 [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to continue rising. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, with a focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4][5].