| 铝产业链期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 | | | 周围观 | Z0015979 | | 价格及价差 现值 前值 涨跌 | | | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 21380 | 21570 | -190.0 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 0 | -10 | 10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 长江 铝A00 21380 | 21570 | -190.0 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 0 | -10 | 10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 2770 | 2770 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 2860 | 2860 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氢化铝(山西)-平均价 2835 | 2840 | -5.0 | -0.18% | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(广西)-平均价 2910 | 2910 | 0.0 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The research report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost - profit analysis [1][9][17] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Spot trading improved slightly, with different premiums in different regions [1] - **Important Information**: Weak ADP employment data in the US, potential end of government shutdown, and production changes in some copper mines [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose macro - environment, tight supply in the short - term, and demand supported by power grid tenders [2][4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for one - sided trading, long - term bullish; possible phased rebound in ratio for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [5][6][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina fell 5 yuan to 2,821 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [9] - **Related Information**: Procurement prices in different regions, government actions in Guinea, production capacity changes, and cost data [10][11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand surplus, expected reduction in production, but new investment pressure at the end of the year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebound, beware of selling pressure; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 190 yuan to 21,880 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [18] - **Related Information**: US economic data, government shutdown news, inventory changes, and production capacity changes [18][19][21] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight overseas supply, and domestic demand with certain resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a volatile and strong trend for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [23][24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of casting aluminum alloy rose 175 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton, and spot prices showed different trends [26] - **Related Information**: US economic data, cost - profit data, and changes in warehouse receipts [26][27] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight waste aluminum supply, and cost support [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong along with aluminum prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai zinc fell 0.18% to 22,680 yuan/ton, and spot trading was cold [33] - **Related Information**: Processing fee guidance price, inventory changes, and production reduction expectations in mines and smelters [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Tight supply at the mine end, reduced smelter profits, and limited upward space [35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for one - sided trading; hold SHFE - LME arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai lead rose 0.97% to 17,660 yuan/ton, and spot trading was okay [39] - **Related Information**: Inventory changes, profit conditions of recycling enterprises, and supply of recycled lead [40] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, demand is weakening, and prices are under pressure [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high levels for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 740 to 118,710 yuan/ton, and spot premiums changed [44][45] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's policy on nickel smelters [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose supply - demand, limited rebound, and expected weakening in the off - season [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 95 to 12,425 yuan/ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [52] - **Important Information**: Decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and export price cuts by Indonesian enterprises [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Weak trading atmosphere, abundant cold - rolled supply, and downward - trending costs [53][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage [56][57] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 292,440 yuan/ton, up 1.75%, and spot prices rose [59] - **Related Information**: US economic data and decline in Indonesian tin exports [60] - **Logic Analysis**: Potential end of US government shutdown, tight supply at the mine end, and slow demand recovery [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices may test previous highs; wait - and - see for options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy consumption and regulation [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced demand for polysilicon, increased power prices in some areas, and limited upward space [66] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation for one - sided trading; long Si2512 and short Si2601 for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: News about the potential establishment of a storage platform [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced supply and demand, marginal improvement in supply - demand, and short - term range - bound [70] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation and buy at low levels for one - sided trading; long PS2512 and short PS2601 for arbitrage; no suggestion for options [72][73][74] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate fell 180 to 86,580 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose [76] - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy, progress of a lithium salt project, and growth in global energy storage cell shipments [77] - **Logic Analysis**: Increased demand and supply - side disturbances support high - level prices [78] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level operation in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the money put options [79][80][82]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tin Company Limited has announced the progress of its share repurchase plan, having repurchased 370,000 shares at a total cost of 7.0053 million yuan, within the approved limits of the plan [1][3]. Group 1: Background of the Repurchase Plan - The company held a shareholder meeting on June 30, 2025, where it approved a share repurchase plan using its own funds, with a total repurchase amount set between 100 million yuan and 200 million yuan, and a maximum repurchase price of 21.19 yuan per share [2]. Group 2: Latest Repurchase Implementation Status - As of October 31, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 370,000 shares, representing 0.0225% of the total share capital, with a maximum transaction price of 19.96 yuan per share and a minimum of 17.74 yuan per share [3]. Group 3: Compliance of the Repurchase - The announcement confirms that the repurchase price, quantity, and trading methods comply with the company's repurchase plan and relevant legal regulations, adhering to the trading rules set by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [4]. Group 4: Future Arrangements - The company plans to continue the repurchase based on market conditions within the designated period and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations as per regulations [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Market Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 88,370 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with an increase of 29,581 lots in the Shanghai Copper Index to 613,100 lots. The spot copper price soared, weakening downstream procurement sentiment, and the spot discount widened [1] - **Important Information**: The slowdown of the US core CPI in September increased the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. SMM estimated that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons [1][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, and the supply of copper ore was tight, while consumption was weak with some resilience. The market was expected to have an increase in supply and weak demand this week [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and consider cross - period positive spreads after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,441 lots to 488,900 lots. The spot price showed a narrow decline [7] - **Related Information**: Xinjiang and Shandong had alumina spot transactions. The national alumina inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 4.061 million tons as of October 23. The Australian alumina price decreased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus of alumina increased after the downstream stocking was completed. The price was expected to bottom out in the short term, and a rebound might occur if production cuts expanded [11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November for single - side trading, with a short - term narrow rebound. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [11][12] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract rose 130 yuan to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 28,105 lots to 635,200 lots. The spot price increased [14] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. Some overseas aluminum smelters had production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased slightly [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment was positive. Overseas supply was tight, and domestic consumption had some resilience [18] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the external market for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [19] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 35 yuan to 20,715 yuan/ton. The spot price remained stable [21] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data showed certain changes [21][22][24] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors were positive. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and demand had some support [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the aluminum price for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 rose 0.34% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 94 lots to 213,500 lots. The spot trading was not improved [29] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Shengda Resources' subsidiary was approved to resume work [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply was abundant, and the external market was strong. The export profit widened, and the Shanghai Zinc price was likely to rise [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for single - side trading. Consider a buy - SHFE and sell - LME strategy based on export conditions. Sell out - of - the - money put options [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2512 fell 0.06% to 17,520 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 6,702 lots to 129,200 lots. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [36] - **Related Information**: A large lead - battery enterprise in East China planned to cut production. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term lead price was driven up by funds, but the medium - long - term fundamentals were under pressure [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on rallies for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [39] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 rose 420 to 122,400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,478 lots. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [41] - **Important Information**: Indonesia promoted a cooperation project with Huayou Cobalt. A new nickel brand applied for LME certification. Norilsk Nickel maintained its 2025 production forecast [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, but the LME nickel inventory limited the upward space of the nickel price. The price was expected to fluctuate within a range [42] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract for options [43][44][45] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 10 to 12,815 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 27,223 lots. The spot price was stable [47] - **Important Information**: The export of Indonesian stainless steel to Taiwan increased, and a high - end stainless - steel project in Jiangsu was progressing [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand was not optimistic at the end of the peak season, and the cost support was not strong. The price was boosted by the reduction of warehouse receipts and general commodity price increases [49] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention to the upper resistance. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 3,260 yuan/ton or 1.15%, and the position increased by 6,739 lots to 75,935 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the trading was not active [53] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The US CPI growth was lower than expected. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic policies were positive for the tin price, but the terminal demand recovery was slow. The supply of tin ore was tight [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive domestic macro expectations and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The industrial silicon export volume in September was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The import volume in January - September decreased by 64% year - on - year [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The production in the northwest was at a high level, and the southwest would reduce production in November. The demand was stable, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [62] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65][66] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to September was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49% [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The polysilicon production in the southwest would decrease in November. The demand for silicon wafers was average, and there was a possibility of inventory accumulation. The price was expected to strengthen after capacity integration [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads on far - month contracts for arbitrage, and hold long call options [70][71][72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 2,020 to 81,900 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,361 lots. The spot price increased [74] - **Important Information**: The performance of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., EVE Energy, and Shengxin Lithium Energy was announced. Whengsheng Technology achieved large - scale supply of battery materials [75][77] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand was driven by the growth of power and energy storage, and the supply of lithium ore was tight. The inventory and warehouse receipts decreased. The market was bullish [77] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78] Group 3: Data Tables and Graphs - The report also provides daily data tables for each metal, including price, spread, inventory, and other information, as well as graphs showing the trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [80][91]

Core Viewpoint - Xiyang Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising market prices of its main products and cost reductions from refined management practices [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating income of 34.417 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.81% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.745 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.99% [1] Market Factors - The primary drivers for the financial performance were the increase in market prices of the company's main products and improvements in cost management [1]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic revaluation of key metals, particularly focusing on rare earths and cobalt [24] - Nickel prices are expected to be supported due to tightened supply expectations following Indonesia's new regulation reducing the approval cycle for mining plans from three years to one year [26][27] - Cobalt prices have continued to rise, with expectations of increasing supply tightness further driving prices up [30][33] - Antimony supply is expected to remain tight, providing a bottom support for antimony prices [34] - Lithium carbonate prices are projected to remain strong due to ongoing demand and inventory depletion [16] - China's dominance in rare earth supply is reinforced by stricter export controls, which are expected to support rare earth prices [18] - Tin supply remains uncertain due to ongoing challenges in overseas supply, which is expected to support tin prices [19] - Tungsten prices are supported by a tightening supply situation, with production rates slowing down [20] - Uranium supply tightness is anticipated to continue, supporting uranium prices [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's new regulation on mining approvals is expected to tighten future ore supply, supporting nickel prices [26] - As of October 24, LME nickel price was $15,085 per ton, up 1.04% from October 17 [26] - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, with electrolytic cobalt reaching 408,500 CNY per ton, a 6.94% increase [30] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices have decreased, but long-term supply tightness is expected to support prices [34] - China's antimony production is projected to dominate global supply, accounting for 60% of the total [34] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a market average of 73,700 CNY per ton as of October 24 [16] - Demand from the battery sector continues to drive price support [16] Rare Earth Industry Update - China's strict export controls on rare earths are expected to tighten supply and support prices [18] - The report highlights the importance of China's role in the global rare earth supply chain [18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply uncertainties, particularly from Myanmar and Indonesia [19] - As of October 24, LME tin price was $35,925 per ton, up 2.42% from October 17 [19] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten supply situation is tightening, with production rates slowing down [20] - Prices for tungsten concentrate have increased, reflecting supply constraints [20] Uranium Industry Update - The report indicates a continued tight supply situation for uranium, supporting price stability [21] - Recent production guidance reductions from major suppliers are expected to impact future supply [21]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]

Core Views - The multi-metal strategic attributes continue to strengthen, driving value reassessment in the non-ferrous metal industry [1] - The investment rating remains "outperform" [2] Tin Market Analysis - Global exchange visible inventory has significantly decreased, with a peak of 22,763 tons in May 2024, followed by a reduction to below 9,000 tons by the end of 2022 [5][73] - The price of tin is expected to rise due to the limited number of new global tin mining projects, with most expected to come online after 2027 [51] Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with expectations for further increases in gold prices through 2025 [5] Energy Metals - The implementation of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to lead to a long-term bull market for cobalt prices [6] - Lithium prices are rebounding, supported by strong demand in the global energy storage market, with supply disruptions still present [6] Minor Metals - The strategic attributes of minor metals are strengthening, with rare earth export controls tightening and significant price increases observed [6] - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to increased demand and supply constraints [8] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to large copper mine production cuts, with a focus on monitoring inventory changes [7][9] - Aluminum production in China is nearing its peak, with a fragile balance in the market that could shift to shortages if demand increases [7][32] Recommended Investment Targets - The report recommends a diversified portfolio including companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Northern Rare Earth [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global market turmoil was triggered by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China on October 10, 2025, leading to sharp drops in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies [11]. - The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting, and economic data release affected [12]. - China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, showing continued improvement in the manufacturing sector, while the central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month [15][16]. - Metal prices were generally affected by macro - events. Copper prices are expected to adjust in the short - term but remain optimistic in the long - run; aluminum prices may face short - term pressure; zinc prices are likely to remain weakly volatile; lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range; nickel prices are subject to supply uncertainties; tin prices are supported by supply tightness and demand recovery; industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are in a wait - and - see state; and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Global Market Flash Crash**: On the night of October 10, Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China led to a global market sell - off. US stocks, crude oil, metal futures, and cryptocurrencies all tumbled. The US will raise the tariff on Chinese goods to 130% and implement key software export controls on November 1 [11]. - **US Government "Shutdown"**: The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting. The Department of Labor's data release was affected, and high - frequency economic data was difficult to obtain [12]. - **China's Economic Data**: China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6%. The central bank increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in September, the 11th consecutive monthly increase [15][16]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic data in September was generally weak. The ADP employment number decreased by 32,000; the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month; and the ISM services PMI was 50, significantly lower than expected [19][20][21] 3.2 Metal Market Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. After Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia in late September, prices rose significantly but were limited by weak demand. On October 10, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, copper prices dropped sharply [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly volatile and may adjust further. However, in the long - run, the supply - demand balance remains tight, and prices are likely to stabilize after the short - term adjustment. It is recommended to reduce long - position holdings to avoid short - term risks [2] Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices fell from high levels. The price of Guinea's bauxite decreased, and the alumina market was under pressure. Trump's tariff signal led to short - term pressure on aluminum prices [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Although short - term prices may continue to decline, the demand peak season remains unchanged, and downstream开工 rates are expected to rise. It is recommended that long - position holders pay attention to risk avoidance and monitor the development of events [2] Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices rose and then fell. The weak US employment data increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in zinc prices. However, the overall terminal consumption was weak [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic refined zinc output is expected to remain high, but demand is weak. It is expected that zinc prices will remain weakly volatile, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based short - biased trading [2] Lead - **Price Trend**: Lead prices oscillated horizontally. The domestic lead supply showed a downward trend, and the price recovered after a sharp drop. However, due to the new round of Sino - US trade confrontation, there is a risk of sharp fluctuations [2]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that lead prices will oscillate within the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based trading [2] Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices oscillated within a range. The new RKAB approval policy in Indonesia has brought uncertainties to the nickel ore market. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside potential [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see or moderately hold short positions at high prices. The main contract of nickel is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, range - based trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3] Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices oscillated within an upward channel. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are showing signs of recovery. However, the short - term tariff increase expectation has a negative impact on prices [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to conduct range - based trading, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 11 contract being 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3] Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon prices fluctuated widely, and polycrystalline silicon prices oscillated at high levels. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon showed different trends, and the photovoltaic industry's anti - involution policy has not been implemented [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Given the current supply - demand expectations for October, it is recommended to wait and see until the policy becomes clear [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Lithium carbonate prices oscillated horizontally. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good. However, there are risks related to mining permits [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.05% to $10,374.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 3.37% to ¥85,900 per ton [1][13] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 166,300 tons, mainly due to increased domestic supply and weak downstream consumption [1][13] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 53.04%, with expectations of further increase to 58.13% next week [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 1.63% to $2,746.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.45% to ¥21,000 per ton [2][14] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory reached 649,000 tons, up by 57,000 tons from September 29 [2][14] - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 58.0%, affected by weak demand and unclear orders [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 1.28% to $4,035.50 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 3.99 tons to 1,017.16 tons [3][15] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated a consensus to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% [3][15] - The U.S. government shutdown impacted economic data release and public services, affecting market sentiment [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 0.89%, while the strategic importance of rare earths has increased due to enhanced control measures [4][31] - The sector is expected to experience a "short-term bearish, long-term bullish" trend, with potential price increases as supply reforms take effect [4][31] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][31] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.12%, but demand for photovoltaic glass is recovering [4][32] - The implementation of stricter fire-resistant standards may provide a demand boost for antimony [4][32] - Global antimony prices are expected to trend upward due to resource scarcity and recovering demand [4][32] Group 6: Tin - Tin price increased by 5.16%, supported by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining [4][33] - The current inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a strong support for tin prices [4][33] - The long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to demand from AI and photovoltaic sectors [4][33] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate remained stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.19% to ¥78,500 per ton [5][59] - Lithium production increased to 20,600 tons, with expectations of further supply growth [5][59] - Downstream demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage remains strong, supporting price stability [5][59] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt price surged by 17.8% to ¥349,500 per ton, driven by supply concerns and rising demand [5][61] - The market is experiencing a "price without market" situation due to tight supply and high demand [5][61] - Future price increases are anticipated due to ongoing supply constraints from Congo [5][61] Group 9: Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.3% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price increased by 1.4% to ¥122,000 per ton [5][62] - Nickel inventory increased by 5,700 tons to 237,400 tons, raising concerns about supply stability [5][62] - The market is expected to remain volatile due to conflicting supply and demand signals [5][62]