Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,488 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton or 0.72% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 78 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 50 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 55.3 tons (up 3.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.6 tons (up 5.9 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 9.6 tons, with a small increase in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 14.1 tons, and a small increase in inventory is expected [1] - On the supply side, the domestic synthetic gas - based EG production load has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production plants are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq3 has shut down again, and a 750,000 - ton/year plant in Malaysia has restarted unsuccessfully, with the increase in EG imports lower than expected. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the end - user level in July, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. The balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up in August, with concentrated arrivals at the beginning of the month, but the increase in port inventory lacks sustainability [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,488 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton or 0.72% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 78 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 50 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The domestic synthetic gas - based EG production load has returned to a high level and can be further increased [2] International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - There was concentrated restocking at the end - user level in July, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 55.3 tons (up 3.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.6 tons (up 5.9 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 9.6 tons, with a small increase in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 14.1 tons, and a small increase in inventory is expected [1] - The balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up in August, with concentrated arrivals at the beginning of the month, but the increase in port inventory lacks sustainability [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an obvious oversupply pattern. With no growth expected in overall demand, it's necessary to track policy implementation and production load adjustments. Wait for a new short - selling opportunity. [1] - Glass has seen a weakening of the market sentiment and a significant decline in spot trading. The industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Hold short positions and be vigilant against macro - induced fluctuations. [1] Industrial Silicon - In August, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and it is expected to reach a tight balance. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider going long when the price drops to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton. [2] Polysilicon - In August, the supply of polysilicon increases more rapidly than demand, facing inventory accumulation pressure. If there is progress in capacity integration or clearance, it may rise; otherwise, it may fluctuate downward. The price may range from 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and buying put options to short at high prices. [3] Natural Rubber - In the short term, supply - side benefits are released, and inventory is decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to be strong. Monitor the raw material supply during the peak production season and consider short - selling if raw materials are abundant. [4] Logs - The log market is affected by reduced available supply and cost support. With stable demand and significant inventory reduction, the short - term futures market is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in various regions decreased, with South China having the largest decline of 2.33%. Soda ash prices in most regions remained stable, except for a 2.78% decline in the Northwest. [1] - The basis of glass 2505 and soda ash 2505 decreased by 28.70% and 19.05% respectively. [1] Supply - Soda ash production increased, with the weekly output rising by 6.42% to 74.47 million tons, and the operating rate increasing by 6.40% to 85.41%. [1] - The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. [1] Inventory - Glass inventory increased by 3.95%, soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.86%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 16.40%. [1] Industrial Silicon Prices and Spreads - The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased slightly, with the largest increase of 1.75% for Xinjiang 99 - silicon. The basis of some types decreased significantly. [2] Supply and Demand - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23% to 33.83 million tons, and the operating rate increased by 2.47% to 52.61%. [2] - The production of downstream products such as polysilicon and regenerated aluminum alloy also increased. [2] Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 1.30% to 54.70 million tons. [2] Polysilicon Prices and Spreads - The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, while the basis of N - type materials decreased by 57.92%. [3] Supply and Demand - Weekly and monthly polysilicon production increased by 10.94% and 5.10% respectively. The import volume decreased by 16.90%, and the export volume increased by 66.17%. [3] Inventory - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.75%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 29.83%. [3] Natural Rubber Prices and Spreads - The prices of some natural rubber products increased, such as Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increasing by 1.38%. The prices of some raw materials dropped to zero. [4] Supply and Demand - Thailand and India's rubber production increased in June, while Indonesia's decreased. Tire production and export showed mixed performance. [4] Inventory - The bonded - area inventory of natural rubber decreased by 1.35%, while the futures inventory in the factory warehouse increased by 6.34%. [4] Logs Prices and Spreads - Log futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the 2509 contract closing at 832.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of some benchmark delivery products increased. [5] Supply and Demand - Port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32%. The demand remained stable at 6.42 million cubic meters per day. [5] Inventory - The national log inventory decreased by 2.84% to 308 million cubic meters. [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 2、基差：现货4695，09合约基差-11，盘面贴水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.7天，环比减少0.12天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 MEG 每日观点 MEG： PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间震荡，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强，个别聚酯工厂递盘。个别主流供应商出货。8月主 港货在09-10～15有成交，8月底个别宁波货在09平水附近商谈，价格商谈区间在4680~4715附近。9月中上主港在09+0~5有成交。 今日主流现货基差在09-12。中 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced increased volatility, with lithium carbonate main contract closing at 81,000 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit [1] - The mining activities in the Jiangxi Yichun area have been fully suspended, which accounts for approximately 12.5% of the domestic lithium carbonate monthly output [1] - The main contract for polysilicon closed at 52,985 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.34%, driven by sustained demand in the new energy sector [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial silicon, linked to the new energy supply chain, saw a price increase to 9,000 yuan/ton, up by 4.83%, influenced by rising prices of related products and expectations of supply constraints due to environmental policies [1] - The short-term outlook for the soda ash industry indicates a clear downward trend in spot prices due to overcapacity and slow demand transformation [4] - The polyester industry chain is facing profit imbalances, with PX maintaining high profits while PTA and terminal polyester profits are at low points [5] Group 3: External Influences - The crude oil market is under pressure, with the main contract falling to 489.4 yuan/barrel, down by 1.41%, due to OPEC+ production increases and expectations of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Russia regarding Ukraine [1] - The short-term market trends will be influenced by sudden disruptions in resource supply and long-term policy framework adjustments, alongside weather changes and trade policy adjustments affecting agricultural products [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current ethylene glycol market is in a game between weak reality and strong cost. The rapid increase in port inventories and the lack of improvement in downstream demand continue to suppress the upside price space, while the widespread deep losses in production processes increase the resistance to further price declines. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the marginal impact of device maintenance dynamics caused by low valuations and the polyester peak - season expectations on market sentiment. If port destocking continues to fall short of expectations, there is a possibility of the price breaking through the cost support downward [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract dropped slightly for two consecutive days, reaching 4,422 yuan/ton on the 8th, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day. The East China spot price also weakened, reaching 4,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 10 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 8 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot market has relatively stronger support for futures, but the absolute price is still under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread further widened to - 45 yuan/ton, suggesting a pessimistic medium - to - short - term supply - demand outlook [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract significantly shrank. On the 8th, the trading volume decreased by 36,000 lots to 80,700 lots, a decline of 30.99%, and the open interest decreased by 11,500 lots to 205,300 lots, indicating obvious signs of capital withdrawal and a shift in market trading sentiment towards caution [2]. - **Supply**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 62.3%, with the operating loads of oil - based (66.15%), coal - based (56.45%), and methanol - based (62.43%) plants remaining unchanged. All production processes continued to operate at a loss, with coal - based profits remaining at - 234 yuan/ton, and losses of 88.51 US dollars/ton, 703.99 yuan/ton, and 1,165.23 yuan/ton for naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based processes respectively. Cost pressure limited supply elasticity [3]. - **Demand**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. There was no increase in terminal textile demand, and combined with the seasonal weakening of foreign trade orders, downstream procurement willingness for ethylene glycol was mainly rigid, making it difficult to drive inventory digestion [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port climbed to 485,700 tons, a significant weekly increase of 59,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 40.6% (52,000 tons), highlighting the port inventory accumulation pressure. Although the arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons compared to the previous period, the slowdown in port shipments led to an unexpected inventory accumulation speed, and the supply - demand contradiction continued to accumulate [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main ethylene glycol futures contract price decreased from 4,430 yuan/ton on the 7th to 4,422 yuan/ton on the 8th, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The East China spot price decreased from 4,465 yuan/ton to 4,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.22% [2][5]. - **Spreads**: The basis widened by 8 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread further widened to - 45 yuan/ton [2][5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates all remained unchanged [3][5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons, a weekly increase of 13.69%. The Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, an increase of 40.62%. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a decrease of 39.72% [3][5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 8, the focus of the East China US dollar market remained stagnant, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 522 - 525 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were reported [6]. - On August 8, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable, with the market average price around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [6]. - On August 8, the mainstream market adjusted downward, the quotes of holders in the South China market were lowered, and the market trading atmosphere was cold, with the current price around 4,500 yuan/ton for delivery [6]. - On August 8, the meeting between the US and Russia made progress, international oil prices continued to decline, ethylene glycol supply gradually returned, market sentiment turned bearish, and the market price adjusted downward, with the current East China price negotiated around 4,455 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory statistics at the East China main port (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11][14][16][18].

M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤制 利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2025/08/04 820 522 4455 4470 4455 481 -587 68.6 75.7 51.6 65 2025/08/05 820 523 4463 4478 4463 489 -578 68.6 75.7 51.6 65 2025/08/06 820 527 4491 4506 4489 517 -552 68.6 75.7 51.6 65 2025/08/07 820 525 4486 4500 4482 512 -554 68.6 75.7 51.6 65 2025/08/08 820 522 4465 4480 4465 429 -577 68.6 75.7 51.6 65 变化 0 -3 -21 -20 -17.00 -82.60 -23 0 0 0 0 MEG现货成交 基差对09（+77）附近。 MEG装置变化 内蒙通辽30万吨重启；山西沃能30万吨检修。 周度观点 近 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound driven by trading funds, with a notable increase in volatility expectations and a return to a "dumbbell" style focusing on dividends and small-cap stocks [1][2] - The margin trading balance reached a nearly 10-year high of 2 trillion yuan, indicating significant liquidity support for the market [2][3] - The number of public fund reports has shown signs of recovery, suggesting a potential shift of household savings into equity funds [2][3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is beginning to show results, with July's PPI year-on-year expected to rebound from its low point, although the extent of recovery will depend on policy effectiveness [3][4] - The macroeconomic indicators, such as improved profit margins for industrial enterprises and reduced accounts receivable turnover days, reflect positive impacts from the "anti-involution" measures [3][4] - Certain sectors, including wind power, automotive, logistics, and aquaculture, are experiencing a recovery in sentiment, indicating a broader improvement in economic conditions [3][4] Group 3 - External risks remain, particularly regarding tariff policies and Federal Reserve monetary policy, which could affect market sentiment and investment strategies [4][5] - The market is approaching a period of concentrated interim report disclosures, which may lead to increased volatility, but the downside risk is considered limited [5][6] - Tactical investment strategies are recommended to focus on sectors with improving sentiment and potential for rebound, such as storage, software, and certain chemical products [5][6]

1. PVC and Caustic Soda Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable with a weakening trend. There is an expected increase in supply in August, but potential supply reduction in late August may support prices. The overall expectation is neutral to weak [2]. - PVC prices are expected to continue to face pressure, with increasing inventory and limited improvement in demand. New capacity releases will add pressure to the supply side, and the downstream shows no sign of improvement [2]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 2.4%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 0.8%. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, and the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. Futures prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.7%, and the PVC industry's operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 12.3%, while the profit of northwest integrated production decreased by 2.2% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda downstream alumina industry decreased by 4.1%, and the operating rate of PVC downstream products showed mixed trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC increased by 7.3% [2]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda's factory and warehouse inventories decreased, while PVC's total social inventory increased by 4.9% [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, and its price is slightly strong, but the rebound space is limited. The supply - demand of styrene is still weak, but short - term price support comes from the improvement of the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 1.2%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1%, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.6%. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed trends [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, with limited upward and downward space. PTA's short - term price has some support, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. Ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, and short - term prices are boosted by the commodity market. Short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and bottle - chip's processing fee has limited upward space [8]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. Most polyester product prices showed a downward trend [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX's supply is stable, and PTA's supply and demand are expected to improve in the short term but weaken in the medium term. Ethylene glycol's supply is increasing, and short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Bottle - chip's demand is not strong [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain showed different degrees of decline [8]. 4. Polyolefins Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. However, as the season turns to the peak season, there are potential restocking conditions. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [11]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed a downward trend, and the spot prices of some products also decreased slightly [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PP and PE is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak, but there is potential for restocking [11]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP are increasing [11]. 5. Methanol Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The inland methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory has increased significantly this week. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The 01 contract may benefit from the seasonal peak season and potential production cuts in Iran [14]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of methanol decreased slightly, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 9.5%, and the port inventory increased by 14.48% [14]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream operating rate increased by 2.28%, and the operating rates of some downstream products showed different trends [14]. 6. Crude Oil Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Recently, oil prices have been weak due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, the overall situation still puts pressure on the market. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [17]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil dropped by 0.69%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.06%. The prices of refined oil products also showed a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but the decline in US EIA crude oil inventory and refinery processing increases show some demand support [17]. 7. Urea Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market gave back its gains due to lower - than - expected volume. The supply remains high, and the demand from the agricultural sector weakens. The export has limited support for the market, and the price returns to the oscillation range [22]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of urea showed a downward trend, and the spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises also increased. The domestic urea inventory showed different trends [21][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end oil market will shift from strong to weak in the second half of the year, unless the US increases sanctions on Russia. PX supply is expected to increase, and the balance sheet will change from de - stocking to balance. PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The polyester load is currently firm, but the terminal demand has not improved significantly and awaits the arrival of the seasonal peak season [2][3] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, pay attention to the cost - end crude oil and macro - sentiment changes. Consider shorting the PTA processing fee at high levels and going long on the PR processing fee at low levels. Also, conduct reverse arbitrage on PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 20 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +1 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 137 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +35 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 375 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN was 263 US dollars/ton (with a month - on - month change of +7.50 US dollars/ton) the day before last. The PTA spot processing fee is 137 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +35 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 375 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton) [2] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Not elaborated in the text Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The domestic PX load will gradually recover, and with the commissioning of MX, the supply is abundant. The PTA load situation in China, South Korea, and Taiwan is presented in relevant figures, but specific data are not described in the text [2][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts will lead to abundant liquid supply [2] Downstream Polyester Load - As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland region is around 88.8%. The polyester start - up rate is 88.1% (with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%). The terminal weaving concentrated on raw - material replenishment in late July, and the filament inventory pressure decreased significantly. The filament and staple - fiber loads rebounded slightly, and the polyester load remains firm in the short term [1][3] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 91 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month increase of 12 yuan/ton). The PF demand - side orders are weak, the inventory remains high, and the willingness to hold positions is low under the drag of downstream production cuts [3] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 410 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 32 yuan/ton). After the implementation of the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers, it is expected that the load will remain stable in the short term, and the bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation after repair [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report did not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the mid - term outlook for each variety, most are rated as "oscillating", indicating that the industry is expected to have price fluctuations within a certain range in the future 2 - 12 weeks [276]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry as a whole continues to show an oscillating and consolidating pattern, with an unclear trend. The prices of most varieties are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For example, the expectation of Russia - US negotiations has alleviated geopolitical premiums, and the supply and demand of various products have different impacts on prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the risk of Russian oil. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of Russia - US negotiations has led to a moderation of geopolitical premiums. Although the high operation of Chinese and American refineries currently supports demand, the pressure on refined oil inventories is expected to reappear, and OPEC + supply is in an accelerated release period. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, focusing on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is testing the support level, and asphalt futures prices are waiting for a direction. - **Main Logic**: The increase in OPEC + production and other factors have put pressure on crude oil, and asphalt futures prices are affected by crude oil. The spot market shows a pattern of stronger in the north and weaker in the south, and the sales pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating. - **Main Logic**: The increase in OPEC + production and the weakening of geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in heavy - oil supply. Domestic import tariffs have been raised, and downstream demand is weak. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will oscillate weakly [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the trend of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the increase in diesel cracking spreads, it also faces multiple negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and other factors, with limited demand space, it will follow the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The support from olefins is limited, and methanol oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has a short - term driving effect, and the port inventory has increased. The downstream olefin prices are under pressure, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [22]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Export information has been finalized, market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price may decline. - **Main Logic**: The export information did not meet market expectations, and combined with weak downstream demand, the futures price is under pressure. - **Outlook**: The futures price may decline in the short term, and attention should be paid to the further implementation of export information [23]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Coal - based plants are restarting, and delayed imported goods have led to port inventory accumulation. With weak supply - demand drivers, the price will remain low. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [17]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: Lack of drivers and guidance, maintaining oscillating consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The futures price oscillates, the cost end lacks guidance, and the supply - demand pattern has limited marginal changes. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [11]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Limited drivers, low - level consolidation for observation. - **Main Logic**: Multiple plants have short - term shutdowns and restarts, and the inventory has decreased. However, due to sufficient spot liquidity, the profit repair is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, focusing on the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [12]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand increase, with a slight reduction in inventory. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream raw materials, the factory load increases slightly, and downstream demand leads to a slight reduction in inventory. - **Outlook**: The processing fee is weakly stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The price is passively following, maintaining low - level consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream polyester raw materials, with weak supply - demand drivers and a decline in processing fees. - **Outlook**: The processing fee has support at the bottom, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [20]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The impacts of oil and coal are differentiated, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has a short - term boosting effect, while the oil price oscillates weakly. The supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [28]. 3.1.13 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: The PP - PL spread around 600 is relatively reasonable, and PL oscillates in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Propylene enterprise inventories are controllable, and the price follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [29]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance support is general, and plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates weakly, the macro - end has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Lack of drivers, pure benzene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment has declined, the price of crude oil has fluctuated, and the concentrated production of upstream and downstream plants has affected the supply - demand relationship. - **Outlook**: In August, the supply increases, but there is new downstream production, and the balance sheet is expected to have a slight reduction in inventory [14]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The downstream restocking is not sustainable, the supply has increased, and the market is worried about the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: The price may oscillate slightly weakly [16]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectation but weak reality, PVC mainly oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment is optimistic, but the fundamentals are under pressure, with an expected increase in production and stable downstream demand. - **Outlook**: The futures price oscillates [31]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is accelerating its decline, and the futures price is running weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment is optimistic, but the fundamentals show an increase in supply and a slow increase in demand, with inventory accumulation pressure. - **Outlook**: The spot price is accelerating its decline, and short - positions can take profits at low levels [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent M1 - M2 with a latest value of 0.61 and a change of - 0.01 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 232 with a change of 11, and the warehouse receipt is 76650 [35]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are different cross - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread with a latest value of - 385 and a change of 4 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.