Core Viewpoint - Zhonghua International (600500) is expected to report a significant net loss for the fiscal year 2025, although the loss is projected to decrease compared to the previous year due to cost-cutting measures and improved capacity utilization [1][2]. Trading Information Summary - On January 15, the main funds experienced a net outflow of 16.67% of the total transaction amount, amounting to 16.62 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 15.64%, totaling 15.60 million yuan [1][2]. Company Announcement Summary - Zhonghua International forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between -241.14 million yuan and -192.91 million yuan, representing a year-on-year reduction in losses of 15% to 32% [1][2]. - The net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be between -229.60 million yuan and -183.68 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year reduction in losses of 38% to 51% [1]. - The primary reason for the losses is the decline in chemical product prices, although revenue from basic raw materials and intermediates has increased, while other segments such as high-performance materials and polymer additives have seen revenue declines [1].

化工日报 | 2026-01-15 负荷偏高，EG主港延续累库 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3867元/吨（较前一交易日变动+52元/吨，幅度+1.36%），EG华东市场现货价 3718元/吨（较前一交易日变动+36元/吨，幅度+0.98%），EG华东现货基差-144元/吨（环比+3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-76美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-901 元/吨（环比-50元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为80.2万吨（环比+7.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港实际到港总数16.6万吨，副 港到港量6.2万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数14.8万吨，副港到港量1.7万吨，整体略偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷7成以上高位继续提升，1~2月高 供应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月后进口压力将有所缓解 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Sinochem International (600500) is facing significant financial challenges, with a projected net loss for 2025 [1][3] - On January 14, 2026, Sinochem International's stock closed at 4.04 yuan, with a trading volume of 338,600 shares and a total transaction amount of 137 million yuan [1] - The company reported a net outflow of 11.68 million yuan from major funds and a net inflow of 12.25 million yuan from retail investors on January 14, 2026 [1][3] Group 2 - Sinochem International expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between -24,113.8 million yuan and -19,291.0 million yuan, representing a year-on-year reduction in losses of 15% to 32% [1][3] - The company anticipates a net loss of 18.37 billion to 22.96 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, with a year-on-year reduction in losses of 38% to 51% [1] - The primary reason for the expected losses is the decline in chemical product prices, although the company aims to mitigate losses through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-14甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：后期国内甲醇市场整体呈偏弱态势，区域走势分化明确。内地方面，当前内地甲醇开工处于绝对高位水平， 而冬季为传统下游需求淡季，叠加下游用户原料库存普遍处于高位，部分下游存在压车现象，尤其是港口部分烯烃装置 有停车计划，需求还将进一步弱化，对业者情绪压制明显。根据历年经验来看，春节前上游甲醇工厂继续维持低库存仍 有出货需求，缺乏利好驱动，后期内地甲醇不排除回落可能。港口方面，宏观面，资金和情绪撤退引发化工板块集体涨 后回调。基本面来看，海外发货和库存下降逻辑仍在，底部（前低）支撑仍在；但如果下游停车或降负陆续兑现， ...

Oil Market - Oil prices have experienced five consecutive increases, with WTI February contract closing up by $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel, a rise of 2.77% [2][16] - Brent March contract closed up by $1.60 to $65.47 per barrel, a rise of 2.51% [2][16] - Concerns over supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in Iran and issues with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium have heightened bullish sentiment in the market [2][16] - API data indicates a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 5.278 million barrels last week, compared to a decrease of 2.766 million barrels the previous week [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.53% to 2461 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 increased by 1.66% to 3066 yuan/ton [17][18] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, with moderate support for high-sulfur fuel oil due to recovering demand from the shipping sector [17][18] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.66% to 3140 yuan/ton [19] - The market is influenced by tightening raw material supply and declining refinery output, leading to a significant price increase [19] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 fell by 155 yuan/ton to 15975 yuan/ton, while NR and BR contracts also saw declines [20] - The export volume of natural rubber in November 2025 decreased by 14.7% year-on-year to 37,150 tons, with 50.8% exported to China [20] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5140 yuan/ton, down 0.04%, while EG2605 closed at 3815 yuan/ton, down 1.68% [21] - The polyester market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical risks affecting oil prices [21] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2257 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269 per ton [22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to declining port inventory pressure [22] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China range from 6370 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [23][24] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover as the Lunar New Year approaches [24] PVC - PVC prices in East China have been adjusted upwards, with various grades priced between 4660 and 4850 yuan/ton [25] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to high supply levels and slowing domestic demand [25] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 1774 yuan/ton [26] - The market is entering a phase of consolidation as demand remains supported by winter storage [26] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices fell by 1.3%, with the main contract closing at 1212 yuan/ton [27] - The market outlook remains weak due to low demand and inventory pressures as the Lunar New Year approaches [27] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a decline, with the main contract closing at 1096 yuan/ton, down 3.09% [28] - The market is supported by high transaction volumes in the spot market, but seasonal demand is expected to decrease as the holiday approaches [28]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mixed during the night session, with energy products leading the gains, particularly fuel which rose by 5.25% [1] - Most chemical products saw an increase, with methanol rising by 1.64% [1] - The black series mostly increased, with iron ore up by 0.43% [1] Group 2 - Non-metallic building materials experienced significant declines, with glass dropping by 2.50% [1] - All oilseeds and oils fell, with soybean oil down by 1.25% [1] - Most agricultural products declined, with corn starch decreasing by 0.66% [1]

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced fluctuations with WTI February contract closing at $59.50 per barrel, up $0.38, a 0.64% increase, while Brent March contract closed at $63.87 per barrel, up $0.53, a 0.84% increase [2][16] - Concerns over Iran potentially reducing exports amid significant anti-government protests countered expectations of increased supply from Venezuela, another sanctioned OPEC member [2][16] - The U.S. President Trump indicated that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff, contributing to ongoing geopolitical risk pricing in the market [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (FU2603) fell by 1.32% to 2461 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) rose by 0.93% to 3026 yuan/ton [3][17] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market remains stable, while the high-sulfur market shows slight support due to recovering demand for marine fuel oil [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract (BU2602) decreased by 0.25% to 3157 yuan/ton, with market dynamics influenced by tightening raw material supply and declining refinery output [5][18] - The asphalt market is expected to navigate between weak demand realities and strong cost expectations, with a focus on future raw material supply [5][18] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures (RU2605) rose by 100 yuan/ton to 16130 yuan/ton, with various rubber grades showing price increases [6][19] - The export volume of natural rubber from Côte d'Ivoire is projected to reach 1.98 million tons in 2025, a 13.4% increase from 2024 [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5142 yuan/ton, up 0.67%, while EG2605 closed at 3880 yuan/ton, up 0.36% [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7308 yuan/ton, up 0.97%, with the market facing geopolitical risks that may elevate oil price premiums [7][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2260 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269 per ton [8][22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend, but tensions in Iran may increase volatility [8][22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6350 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][23] - Supply is expected to see slight reductions due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover slightly before the Lunar New Year [9][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed slight adjustments, with the market remaining under pressure from high supply and slowing domestic demand [10][24] - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with expectations of price stabilization at lower levels [10][24] Urea - Urea futures prices remained stable, with the main contract closing at 1783 yuan/ton, while spot prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly [11][25] - The market is experiencing cautious demand, with production rates showing significant regional disparities [11][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 1.31%, with stable pricing from manufacturers [12][27] - The market faces a balance between basic supply and external factors, with expectations of pressure as the Lunar New Year approaches [12][27] Glass - Glass futures prices fluctuated, with the main contract closing at 1143 yuan/ton, while spot prices increased to an average of 1096 yuan/ton [13][28] - The market is supported by low supply and high transaction volumes, although demand may decline as the holiday approaches [13][28]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed trend on January 12, 2026, with some commodities rising significantly and others declining [5]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations, and factors such as macro - economy, policy, and geopolitics affect their prices, with different price trends expected for each commodity. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Metals - **沪铜**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The supply side may face production cuts, the demand side has strong terminal demand but weak copper product demand, showing a structure of strong expectation and weak reality, with a medium - to - long - term upward trend after a phased correction [8]. - **碳酸锂**: Affected by the export tax - rebate adjustment, the market has a strong expectation of rush - export, driving the futures price to rise sharply. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be strong under the stimulation of rush - export, but the potential negative impact of CATL's resumption of production needs to be noted [10]. - **焦煤**: The spot price of coking coal is relatively stable, the supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has a recovery in demand from coking enterprises and steel mills. The price is expected to be volatile and strong, but chasing high prices has risks [21][22]. Energy - **原油**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, the demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation affect the price, which is expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **沥青**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand in the north is affected by the end of construction, and the demand in the south is average. Geopolitical events in Venezuela affect the raw material supply, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly, with the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil showing a strong and volatile trend [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is low, the supply has new capacity and a decrease in maintenance, the demand is in the off - season. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **塑料**: The开工率 is at a medium level, the downstream demand of agricultural film is in the off - season, the supply has new capacity, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][19]. - **PVC**: The supply side has an increase in开工率, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and there may be a rush - export phenomenon before the cancellation of export tax - rebates. The 3 - 5 contracts are expected to be strong and volatile [20]. - **尿素**: After a continuous rise, it enters a correction stage. The supply side has an increase in daily output, the demand side has weak support, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [23]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with the CSI 1000 rising the most at 3.75% [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had different degrees of increase or remained flat, with the 30 - year rising the most at 0.30% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a general increase on January 12, with significant gains in metals and energy sectors driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Metal Sector - The lead in the commodity market was taken by silver, which surged by 14.42%, while lithium carbonate and tin both hit the daily limit with increases of 9.00% and 8.00% respectively [1][3]. - Other metals such as copper, palladium, platinum, and nickel also saw gains exceeding 3% to 5%, with gold rising by 2.57% and reaching a historical high above 1030 yuan per gram [3]. - The strong demand from AI and new energy sectors, coupled with supply constraints and geopolitical disturbances, continues to drive investment in metals, particularly silver, which has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years [3]. Group 2: Energy Sector - The energy and chemical sectors also benefited from geopolitical concerns, with WTI crude oil opening strong above $59 per barrel due to fears of U.S. intervention in Iran and other geopolitical tensions [4]. - Despite the rebound in oil prices, analysts caution that the fundamental oversupply situation in the oil market remains unchanged, which could lead to a return to weaker prices if geopolitical premiums diminish [4]. - The chemical market saw broad increases, with styrene rising over 3% and other products like polypropylene and PX also gaining more than 1% [5]. Group 3: Silicon Sector - The polysilicon market faced downward pressure, closing down 2.89% due to regulatory concerns and the cancellation of export tax rebates, shifting market sentiment from strong expectations to a weaker reality [6]. - The regulatory environment is expected to change the dynamics of polysilicon production, moving towards market competition driven by technological advancements rather than prior industry coordination [6]. Group 4: High Sulfur Fuel Oil - Despite the overall strength in oil prices, high sulfur fuel oil saw a decline of 1.32% due to supply-side pressures, although demand for marine fuel oil is gradually recovering [7]. - The entry of Venezuelan heavy crude oil into the global market is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the price differentials for heavy sulfur crude and high sulfur cracking margins [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Short - term supply - demand of pure benzene is weak with limited drive, and prices will continue to fluctuate within the range of 5300 - 5600. For benzene - ethylene, short - term price support is strong, but the rebound space and sustainability are limited. Suggest to wait and see on the long side and focus on short - selling opportunities for EB03 [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - In Q1, the supply - demand of PX and PTA is expected to weaken. PX prices will fluctuate between 7000 - 7500 in the short - term and can be considered for long positions in the medium - term. PTA will fluctuate between 5000 - 5300 in the short - term and can also be considered for long positions in the medium - term [2]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE, the marginal supply of the standard product is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. For PP, supply and demand are both weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and it is short - term strong [3]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices maintain a range - bound trend. Geopolitical premiums support price rebounds, but the increase is limited under the weak supply - demand expectation. Pay attention to the pressure around 65 dollars per barrel for Brent [5]. LPG Industry No clear core view provided in the given content. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak - based shock pattern. Glass has good short - term shipments and inventory reduction, but there are still supply - demand pressures [10]. Methanol Industry - Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by the low profit of methanol - to - olefins and potential MTO device maintenance [13]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to continue to be stable and weak. PVC supply - demand remains weak, and short - term pessimism may drag down the price [16]. Urea Industry - Urea prices are suppressed by weak supply - demand. Without new stimuli, they may fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to device restart and downstream demand [17]. Natural Rubber Industry - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate between 15500 - 16500, supported by raw material prices below and suppressed by weak demand above [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.8% to 551 dollars per ton. Pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.3% [1]. - **Benzene - Ethylene Related Prices and Spreads**: Benzene - ethylene spot price in East China rose 1.6% to 7000 yuan per ton, and EB cash flow (non - integrated) increased 42.1% [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Aniline cash flow increased 18.6%, while EPS cash flow decreased 183.3% [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased 6.0%, and benzene - ethylene inventory decreased 4.7% [1]. - **开工率变化**: Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased 1.3%, and domestic benzene - ethylene operating rate increased 0.6% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.8% to 551 dollars per ton [2]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot price in East China decreased 0.7% to 5035 yuan per ton, and PTA spot processing fee decreased 16.6% [2]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot price in East China decreased 0.5% to 3697 yuan per ton, and MEG import profit decreased 17.4% [2]. - **Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: MEG port inventory decreased 0.7% to 72.5 million tons, and MEG arrival forecast increased 66.4% to 17.8 million tons [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX operating rate increased 0.4%, and PTA operating rate increased 0.1% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: L2605 closed at 6674 yuan per ton, up 0.69%, and PP2605 closed at 6514 yuan per ton, up 0.46% [3]. - **现货价格**: East China PP spot price rose 0.32% to 6300 yuan per ton, and North China LLDPE spot price rose 0.62% to 6520 yuan per ton [3]. - **库存**: PE enterprise inventory increased 6.66% to 39.54 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased 4.69% to 46.77 million tons [3]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased 0.52% to 83.67%, and PP device operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.47% [3]. Crude Oil Industry - **原油价格及价差**: Brent rose 2.18% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and WTI rose 2.35% to 59.12 dollars per barrel [5]. - **成品油价格及价差**: NYM RBOB rose 1.15% to 178.06 cents per gallon, and ICE Gasoil rose 3.69% to 631.75 dollars per ton [5]. - **成品油裂解价差**: US gasoline cracking spread decreased 3.14%, and European gasoline cracking spread increased 8.70% [5]. LPG Industry - **LPG价格及价差**: PG2602 rose 0.52% to 4221 yuan per ton, and PG02 - 03 spread decreased 11.46% [8]. - **LPG外盘价格**: FEI swap M1 contract rose 2.09% to 513.50 dollars per ton, and CP swap M1 contract rose 1.06% to 522.50 dollars per ton [8]. - **库存**: LPG refinery storage ratio decreased 1.94% to 23.8%, and LPG port inventory decreased 0.41% to 213 million tons [8]. - **开工率**: Upstream - main refinery operating rate increased 2.49% to 76.98%, and downstream - PDH operating rate increased 0.68% to 75.6% [8]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **玻璃相关价格及价差**: North China glass quote remained unchanged at 1020 yuan per ton, and glass 2601 decreased 0.30% to 1010 yuan per ton [10]. - **纯碱相关价格及价差**: Northwest soda ash quote rose 2.33% to 880 yuan per ton, and soda ash 2601 decreased 1.30% to 1141 yuan per ton [10]. - **供应**: Soda ash operating rate rose 5.93% to 84.70%, and float glass daily melting volume decreased 0.92% to 15.01 million tons [10]. - **库存**: Glass factory inventory decreased 5.69% to 5551.80 million weight boxes, and soda ash factory inventory increased 4.25% to 157.25 million tons [10]. Methanol Industry - **甲醇价格及价差**: MA2605 closed at 2273 yuan per ton, up 1.88%, and MA59 spread increased 150.00% to 2 [11]. - **库存**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased 5.94% to 44.768 million tons, and methanol port inventory increased 4.05% to 153.7 million tons [12]. - **开工率**: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate increased 0.54% to 78.09%, and downstream - MTO device operating rate decreased 0.59% to 78.88% [13]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC、烧碱现货&期货**: Shandong 32% caustic soda price remained unchanged at 2150 yuan per ton, and East China PVC market price decreased 0.6% to 4620 yuan per ton [16]. - **烧碱海外报价&出口利润**: FOB East China port price decreased 1.4% to 350 dollars per ton, and export profit increased 23.6% to 216.5 yuan per ton [16]. - **PVC海外报价&出口利润**: CFR Southeast Asia price rose 1.7% to 610 dollars per ton, and export profit decreased 12.3% to - 8.8 yuan per ton [16]. - **供给**: Caustic soda operating rate increased 0.4% to 88.9%, and PVC total operating rate increased 2.0% to 78.9% [16]. - **需求**: Alumina industry operating rate increased 0.1% to 80.5%, and PVC downstream product operating rate showed mixed trends [16]. - **库存**: Caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased 1.8% to 23.4 million tons, and PVC total social inventory increased 4.0% to 54.6 million tons [16]. Urea Industry - **期货价格**: Urea 01 contract closed at 1690 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **现货价格**: Shandong small - particle urea price decreased 0.57% to 1750 yuan per ton [17]. - **供需面概览**: Domestic urea daily production rose 0.55% to 20.06 million tons, and domestic urea plant inventory increased 0.29% to 102.22 million tons [17]. Natural Rubber Industry - **现货价格及基差**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber price in Shanghai decreased 0.95% to 15700 yuan per ton, and the whole - latex basis decreased 22.22% to - 330 yuan per ton [18]. - **月间价差**: 9 - 1 spread increased 100.00% to 0 [18]. - **生产及开工率**: November Thai rubber production decreased 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons, and automobile tire semi - steel tire operating rate decreased 2.36% to 65.89% [18]. - **库存变化**: Bonded area inventory increased 4.48% to 548344 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE remained unchanged [18].