美国最新CPI数据显示，整体通胀持稳但呈现出复杂信号。7月美国CPI同比上涨2.7%，与6月持平，略 低于市场预期的2.8%。环比上涨0.2%，符合市场预期。 ·服务类通胀依然高企，尤其是在住宿、医疗保健和航空运输等领域。 ·能源价格下降：汽油价格7月下跌2.2%，同比下降9.5%。 ·食品通胀整体持平——杂货价格小幅下降，但餐饮价格上涨0.3%。年度食品通胀率为2.9%。 市场与政策影响 华尔街对此反应积极——标普500、纳斯达克和道琼斯等主要股指均录得上涨，因数据表明通胀仍在可 控范围内，或为美联储9月降息提供合理性。 利率掉期市场数据显示，投资者目前押注美联储在9月降息25个基点的概率超过90%，并预计2025年可 能累计降息多达三次（CME FedWatch数据）。 | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | MEETING DATE ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In July 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and below the market expectation of 2.8%[6] - Core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously and slightly above the expected 3.0%[6] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate decreased to 0.2%, while core CPI increased to 0.3%[9] Group 2: Inflation Components - Food CPI growth rate was flat at 0.0% month-on-month, with household food prices declining and non-household food price increases narrowing[9] - Energy CPI month-on-month growth significantly slowed to -1.1%, with both energy goods and services prices turning negative[9] - Core goods inflation pressure remains limited, with core goods CPI month-on-month growth steady at 0.2%[9] Group 3: Housing and Services Inflation - Housing inflation remained stable, contributing 0.07 percentage points to the overall CPI increase, with rent and equivalent rent showing slight increases[9] - Core services CPI month-on-month growth rose to 0.4%, driven by significant increases in transportation and healthcare services[9] - Overall, core services inflation shows upward pressure, particularly in healthcare due to potential tariff impacts[9] Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - The market's expectation for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve strengthened, with the probability rising from 85.9% to 92.2% following the CPI data release[9] - Short-term outlook suggests a high likelihood of a rate cut in September, with December also being a probable event due to ongoing economic conditions[9] - The "Great American Rescue Plan" may support the economy but will not alter the trend towards a soft landing, necessitating rate cuts for effective policy implementation[9]

Market Performance - On August 13, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continued their strong performance, with major indices rising simultaneously and trading activity significantly increasing [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% to 3686.34 points, marking a new high since December 2021; the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.81% [2] - The Hong Kong market also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index up by 1.88% to 25439.91 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 2.35% [2] Leading and Lagging Sectors - In the A-share market, sectors such as telecommunications, non-bank financials, and non-ferrous metals led the gains, with increases of 3.83%, 1.99%, and 1.79% respectively [3] - The telecommunications sector benefited from rapid AI hardware development, while non-bank financials were supported by a margin financing balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan and a 36.9% year-on-year increase in new account openings from January to July [3] - Conversely, traditional cyclical and consumer sectors lagged, with coal down by 0.64% and textiles down by 0.55% [3] Investment Recommendations - The current market is characterized by "incremental capital-driven, policy and industrial logic resonance," with continuous increases in trading volume and margin financing balances reaching new highs [5] - Short-term strategies should focus on sectors with significant capital movement and trend breakthroughs, such as AI hardware, brokerage firms, and consumer electronics, while avoiding traditional cyclical products under pressure [5] - Mid-term investment should target three main lines: the broad technology sector benefiting from global model iterations and domestic replacements, new consumption driven by policy incentives in automotive, elderly care, and medical sectors, and non-ferrous metals driven by industrial upgrades and new energy demand [5]

Group 1 - Kangji Medical (09997) resumed trading with a nearly 1% increase, announcing a privatization agreement with Knight Bidco Limited, which will make Kangji a wholly-owned subsidiary and delist from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after completion [1] - Tencent Music (01698) opened high with over a 15% increase, reporting a 30% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q2 ending June 30, 2025, driven by high-quality growth in its online music business [1] - Mingyuan Cloud (00909) opened over 2% higher, announcing a cash acquisition of 100% equity in ASIOT Co., Ltd. for 700 million yen by its subsidiary MytePro Japan [1] Group 2 - Yuedu Group (00772) surged over 15%, reporting a 68.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year, with strong performance in IP for premium films and animations, and significant growth in the emerging short drama sector [2] - Minmetals Resources (01208) rose over 9%, with net profit increasing 15 times year-on-year, attributed to higher copper production and rising prices of copper, gold, silver, and zinc [2] - Beihai Kangcheng-B (01228) increased over 31%, announcing a strategic cooperation agreement with Baiyang Pharmaceutical for exclusive commercial services in promoting several products in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau [2] Group 3 - Zhonghui Biotech-B (02627) surged over 25%, as its vaccine product was included in the preliminary review list of the national commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog [2] - Gilead Sciences-B (01672) rose over 5%, announcing promising efficacy results for its candidate drug ASC47 in combination with teriparatide for obesity treatment in diet-induced obesity mouse studies [3] - Dongying Travel (06882) fell over 9%, issuing a profit warning with expected net profit of approximately 6 million HKD for the first half of 2025, down about 82% from 34 million HKD in the same period last year [3] Group 4 - Kodak (KODK.US) dropped 19.91% after reporting a shift from profit to loss in Q2, raising concerns about its ability to execute critical financing measures [4] - Niu Technologies (NIU.US) rose 11.69%, reporting a turnaround to profitability in Q2 and projecting Q3 revenue between 1.433 billion to 1.638 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60% [4] - Huya (HUYA.US) increased by 4.53%, preparing to release its financial report, with a strong growth trajectory in gaming-related services [4] Group 5 - ON Running (ONON.US) rose 8.95%, reporting a 32% year-on-year increase in Q2 sales and projecting annual net sales of at least 2.91 billion Swiss francs, exceeding previous expectations [6] - Micron Technology (MU.US) increased by 3.26%, significantly raising its Q4 fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance to between 11.1 billion to 11.3 billion USD, with gross margin guidance improved to 44% to 45% [6]

数据来源：国家统计局 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国共享经济行业市场研究分析及投资前景预测报告》 数据来源：国家统计局 2025第2季度，全国居民人均医疗保健支出累计为1314元，累计增长3.4%；城镇居民人均医疗保健支出 累计为1499元，累计增长2.1%；农村居民人均医疗保健支出累计为1053元，累计增长5.7%。 ...

Core Insights - The core inflation level in the U.S. accelerated in July to its highest level since the beginning of the year, driven by a rebound in service prices, raising concerns about the impact of tariff policies [1][4] - The July core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1][4] - Overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and remained steady year-on-year at 2.7%, slightly below economists' expectations [1][4] Service Costs - Service prices, excluding energy, rose by 0.4% month-on-month, the largest increase this year, with significant jumps in airfare, healthcare, and entertainment services [4] - Housing costs, as the largest component of the service sector, saw residential prices increase by 0.2% for the second consecutive month, while hotel accommodation prices continued to decline [5] Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve is facing new challenges as rising service prices may complicate efforts to control inflation, with ongoing debates about the long-term inflationary pressures from tariffs [4][6] - The average hourly wage, adjusted for inflation, increased by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating a potential impact on consumer spending expectations [6] Data Collection Concerns - There are growing concerns about the quality of economic data, particularly CPI data collection, due to budget cuts and staffing reductions, leading to a temporary decrease in data collection in several states [7] - The proportion of "cross-unit estimates" in CPI data has risen significantly, indicating potential volatility in the reported figures, although economists believe this will not lead to bias in CPI data [7][8]

Group 1: Market Sentiment - The cryptocurrency market in China is experiencing a surge in interest despite ongoing government bans, with both retail investors and institutions showing significant engagement [1][4][10] - Retail investors, referred to as "大爷大妈," are actively discussing major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating a grassroots enthusiasm for digital assets [3][4] - The emergence of a unique narrative around cryptocurrencies among retail investors suggests a growing understanding of their value propositions, such as Bitcoin as "digital gold" and Ethereum as a foundational technology for Web3 [3][4] Group 2: Institutional Engagement - Major companies like JD.com are strategically hiring for roles focused on decentralized finance (DeFi), indicating a shift from merely investing in cryptocurrencies to integrating DeFi technologies into their core business operations [7][10] - Huajian Medical has announced a strategic initiative to convert part of its balance sheet into Ethereum, aiming to become a leading holder of the asset among Hong Kong-listed companies, which signals institutional confidence in Ethereum's long-term potential [9][10] - The actions of these institutions reflect a broader trend of integrating cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies into traditional business models, highlighting a significant evolution in the financial landscape [7][9] Group 3: Dual Forces in the Market - The relationship between grassroots enthusiasm and institutional strategies creates a complex dynamic in China's cryptocurrency landscape, where retail and institutional interests are converging [10] - Despite strict regulatory measures, the market forces driven by both retail investors seeking wealth and institutions looking for growth opportunities are creating a powerful undercurrent in the cryptocurrency space [10] - This dual engagement from both retail and institutional players is expected to reshape the global cryptocurrency landscape, with China playing a pivotal role in the upcoming market cycles [10]

| 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3665.92 | 11351.63 | 1449.63 | | +18.37 +0.50% +60.21 +0.53% -9.09 -0.62% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1069.81 | 2409.40 | 5743.06 | | +20.08 +1.91% +29.58 +1.24% +19.48 +0.34% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 中证A500 | | | 4143.83 6418.16 4907.80 | | | | +21.31 +0.52% +26.40 +0.41% +20.96 +0.43% | | | | 中证1000 中证2000 | | 中证红利 | | 6963.61 | 2993.32 | 5623.04 | | +19.67 +0.28% +1.72 +0.06% +31.35 +0.56% | | | | 行业板块 它 | | | | 涨幅榜 | 资金净流入 | 5日涨幅榜 | | 摩托车 | 电脑硬件 | 未曾体 | | +3. ...

Core Viewpoint - The frequency of bank wealth management subsidiaries conducting research on listed companies has significantly increased in 2023, indicating a growing interest in equity investments and the development of their investment research capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Research Activity - As of March 22, 2023, 15 bank wealth management subsidiaries conducted research on listed companies 374 times, compared to over 350 times in the first half of the previous year [1]. - Notable participants in the research include Zhuhai Wealth Management with 100 research instances covering 86 companies, followed by Xingyin Wealth Management with 93 instances [1]. - Other subsidiaries such as Huizhou Wealth Management, Hangzhou Wealth Management, and Ningbo Wealth Management also showed significant research activity, each exceeding 10 instances [1]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - The sectors attracting attention from bank wealth management subsidiaries include electronics, biotechnology, industrial machinery, healthcare, food, and regional banks, reflecting a broader interest in various industries [1][2]. - The preference for these sectors is attributed to their status as market hotspots or sectors with improved fundamentals, thus presenting high allocation value [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has emphasized increasing the issuance of equity asset management products, supporting wealth management companies in enhancing their equity product ratios [2][3]. - Over the past two years, regulatory encouragement has led to a gradual maturation of bank wealth management subsidiaries in equity investments, although the number of equity products remains limited [2]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - In a declining interest rate environment, high-quality debt assets are becoming scarce, prompting bank wealth management subsidiaries to increase their allocation to equity assets to enhance product yield [3]. - The need for these subsidiaries to strengthen their compliance and risk management systems is highlighted, as they navigate the shift towards more equity-focused products while considering their clients' lower risk appetites [3].

| 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hill | 恒生指数 | Star | 24863.09 | -43.72 | -0.18% | | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | News | 5428.60 | -31.42 | -0.58% | | HSCEI | 恒生中国企业指数 V | | 8874.28 | -13.80 | -0.16% | 8月12日，A股早盘震荡上涨，三大股指小幅走高，脑机接口概念活跃，算力硬件股走强，光模块（CPO）等涨幅居前，稀 土永磁板块调整。港股早盘走低，恒指、恒科指双双下跌，科网股调整，苹果概念股再度活跃。债市方面，国债期货延续 跌势。商品方面，国内商品期货多数走高，碳酸锂期货涨近5%，集运指数跌超2%。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | MW | 3659.05 | 11.51 | 0.32% | | 39 ...