Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Short - term interval operation [6] 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by supply and demand changes and potential industry measures. The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies, with large short - term fluctuations and suitable for mid - to long - term bottom - up long positions [2][6] 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 8345 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 181,168 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,806 lots, an increase of 494 lots from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The spot price of industrial silicon declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 (-200) yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9500 - 9900 (-200) yuan/ton [1] - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 12100 - 12700 yuan/ton. The supply of silicone gradually recovered, but the demand was limited due to sufficient raw material inventory of downstream enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 48615 yuan/ton and closing at 50330 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous day. The position of the main contract reached 127,587 lots, and the trading volume was 433,130 lots [3] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [3] - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 5.76% month - on - month to 22.90, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 18.15GW. Polysilicon weekly production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [3] Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers remained unchanged. The production plan of silicon wafer enterprises was inconsistent, and the production of leading professional silicon wafer enterprises might increase [5] - **Battery**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained stable. The global production schedule of Chinese enterprises in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month to 57 - 58GW [5] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction prices of various types of components remained unchanged [5] 4. Strategy Industrial Silicon - The industrial fundamentals have little change. The supply has a certain increase, the consumption increases month - on - month in August, and the inventory decreases slightly, but the overall inventory pressure is still large. It is expected that the short - term disk will fluctuate widely [2] Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk is mainly affected by policies. In the short term, it is recommended to operate within the interval. In the mid - to long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [6]

Group 1 - The establishment of Zhejiang Xin'an Yushi Silicon Technology Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 15 million yuan, focusing on synthetic materials and rubber products sales [4] - The company has a complete industrial chain in the silicon-based new materials sector, covering upstream silicon mining, organic silicon monomer synthesis, and downstream product manufacturing, with an organic silicon monomer capacity of 500,000 tons [5] - The company has the highest self-use terminal conversion rate in the domestic market, exceeding 40%, and offers over 3,000 types of downstream terminal products [5] Group 2 - The company has developed an integrated model for crop protection, covering intermediates, active ingredients, formulations, and agricultural services, providing comprehensive solutions for food security and increased production [7] - The company is a global leader in herbicide varieties, with a production capacity of 80,000 tons for glyphosate and an annual sales capacity of 100,000 tons for active ingredients, achieving a conversion rate of over 70% for active ingredient formulations [7] - The company is expanding its global presence with over 4,500 overseas registration certificates for crop protection products, establishing a marketing network in over 130 countries and regions by 2024 [8]

Group 1 - As of August 4, 2025, the stock price of Xingfa Group is 24.67 yuan, down 0.10 yuan or 0.40% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 146,800 hands, with a transaction amount of 361 million yuan [1] - The company’s main business includes phosphate chemicals, organic silicon, and fertilizers, and it has phosphate mineral resources while also expanding into new energy materials [1] Group 2 - As of July 31, the number of shareholders is 54,300, a decrease of 5,538 or 9.26% from July 20, marking the seventh consecutive decline in shareholder numbers [1] - The company has established a joint venture with Wanhua Chemical to form a silicon materials company, expanding its new materials business [1] - In investor interactions, the company indicated it possesses technical reserves for producing glyphosate using the IDA method, although this process is not currently in use [1] Group 3 - On August 4, the net outflow of main funds was 21.18 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 241 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a complete industrial chain in the silicon-based new materials sector, covering upstream silicon mining, organic silicon monomer synthesis, and downstream product manufacturing, making it the most comprehensive player in the domestic organic silicon industry [2]. - The company has established a fully integrated development model in crop protection, offering a complete range of herbicides and other agricultural products, and is a leader in global herbicide varieties [3]. - The company is accelerating its globalization efforts, establishing multiple overseas production bases and expanding its marketing network to over 130 countries and regions [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a registered capital of 15 million yuan for its new subsidiary, Zhejiang Xin'an Yushi Silicon Technology Co., Ltd., which focuses on synthetic materials and high-quality synthetic rubber sales [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 283 million yuan (down 29.7%), 472 million yuan (down 12.6%), and 684 million yuan, respectively [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 14.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.59 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.5% [5]. Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 12.5% in 2023 to 13.4% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 96 in 2023 to 20 in 2027, reflecting an anticipated recovery in earnings [13]. Market Position - The company is the only domestic player with full coverage of downstream terminal products, offering over 3,000 types of products across various applications [2]. - It has established partnerships with several Fortune 500 companies, enhancing its market presence and credibility [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market has seen a recent rebound in both futures and spot prices, but considering the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the market, the market is expected to adjust. However, bullish sentiment may still fluctuate, so caution is needed in operations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by silicon enterprises [1]. - The polysilicon market has also seen a continuous upward trend in the futures market since the end of June. Although the recent sentiment has faded, it still fluctuates. The market is volatile, and caution is required in operations. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 10,150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 2.97% to 8,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, as silicon prices continue to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, with the arrival of the wet season, power costs have decreased, and enterprise operations have steadily increased. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, so supply is expected to increase steadily. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, which will bring some demand increments. For the silicone industry, a major factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. With the support of silicon prices on the cost side, silicone prices have continued to rise. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material increased 1.10% to 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material rose 1.08% to 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material increased 1.12% to 45 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.14% to 49,200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, production is expected to increase slightly, with July's production approaching 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, with inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials rising. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit. Enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved, but the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]. Other Information - The component procurement of the 1350MW solar photovoltaic power station project of Dongying Huiyang Clean Energy Co., Ltd.'s fourth - phase fishery - photovoltaic complementary project has been terminated due to policy adjustments. Another project in Dongying City, Lijin County, with an installed capacity of 975MWp, is planned to be invested about 741 million yuan [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the 2025 special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry, requiring local industrial and information technology departments to complete the supervision and submit results by September 30, 2025 [1].

Group 1 - The organic silicon industry is experiencing an upward trend, benefiting from tightened upstream silicon supply, which is expected to further enhance industry prosperity. Companies such as Silane Technology and Huami New Materials are recommended for attention [3][10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on August 1, 2025, regarding energy conservation inspections in the polysilicon industry, which aims to eliminate backward production capacity and reduce the burden on enterprises [3][10]. - The organic silicon sector is a crucial part of the silicon industry chain, with applications in construction materials, electronics, aerospace, and automotive industries due to its unique properties [12][10]. Group 2 - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange experienced a decline of 1.80% in the week from July 28 to August 1, 2025, with all sub-sectors showing negative performance [4][26]. - The North Exchange 50 index closed at 1419.61 points, reflecting a weekly decline of 2.70%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.75% [22][25]. - Notable individual stock performances in the chemical new materials sector included Gebijia (+12.44%), Huitong New Materials (+11.69%), and Patel (+7.95%) [28][31]. Group 3 - Silane Technology focuses on the research, production, and sales of hydrogen silicon materials, with applications in photovoltaic, LCD panels, semiconductors, and hydrogen energy vehicles. However, the company has faced a decline in performance due to domestic capacity expansion and reduced downstream demand [14][16]. - Huami New Materials specializes in the research, production, and sales of rubber and plastic materials, with its high-end organic silicon project currently in trial production, primarily for aerospace applications [17][20].

格隆汇7月31日丨兴发集团(600141.SH)在互动平台表示，公司DMC实际产能约30万吨/年,DMC价格上涨 对公司有机硅业务板块存在积极影响，但具体增厚利润的数额需要综合考虑公司的产能、成本结构、市 场销售策略以及行业竞争等多种因素。若仅考虑产能因素，有机硅价格每上涨1000元/吨，预计能为公 司增加约3亿元/年利润。公司会密切关注市场动态，持续优化生产与销售策略，努力提升经营质效，为 股东创造更多价值。 ...

格隆汇7月31日丨兴发集团(600141.SH)在互动平台表示，公司DMC实际产能约30万吨/年,DMC价格上涨 对公司有机硅业务板块存在积极影响，但具体增厚利润的数额需要综合考虑公司的产能、成本结构、市 场销售策略以及行业竞争等多种因素。若仅考虑产能因素，有机硅价格每上涨1000元/吨，预计能为公 司增加约3亿元/年利润。公司会密切关注市场动态，持续优化生产与销售策略，努力提升经营质效，为 股东创造更多价值。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the recent "anti-involution" policies are beneficial in curbing low-level repetitive construction in the chemical industry and are actively promoting a shift from homogeneous price wars to high-quality development [1][3] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in its prosperity, with a focus on the revival of terminal product demand, increasing industry concentration, and investment opportunities in segments with industrial moats and potential cyclical rebounds, such as refining, ethylene, polyester filament, PVC, organic silicon, battery materials, glyphosate, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry has faced significant pressure since 2022 due to demand contraction and supply shocks, with the CCPI continuing to decline by 5.57% from early 2025 to July 24, 2025 [2] - From January to May 2025, the revenue of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry grew by 2.10% year-on-year, while total profits decreased by 4.70% [2] - The industry's capacity utilization rate was 71.90% in the second quarter of 2025, down by 1.60 percentage points from the first quarter [2] - The capital expenditure in the large chemical sector has significantly declined, with the capital expenditure growth rate for the oil and petrochemical/basic chemical sectors turning negative at -6.6% and -15.0%, respectively [2] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to reshape the petrochemical industry landscape, addressing the pressures of overcapacity and homogeneous competition [3] - Refining is experiencing a decline in operating rates due to demand downturn and electrification, with potential policy measures to reduce inefficient capacity and encourage integrated development [3] - The ethylene sector faces oversupply and competition, but controlling production and improving quality could alleviate supply-demand imbalances [3] Group 4 - In the battery materials sector, rapid capacity expansion amid growing demand has led to significant supply pressure, but "anti-involution" policies may guide healthier industry development [4] - The organic silicon industry is nearing the end of its capacity expansion phase, with recent supply disruptions and sustained demand growth expected to ease short-term supply pressures [4] - The "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve the supply landscape in the soda ash sector by accelerating the exit of outdated processes and capacities [4]

天风证券研报表示，亏损程度高、行业集中度高、老旧产能占比高、开工率高的细分化工行业，或将会 更容易作为化工行业"反内卷"的突破口，以最短的路径实现目标。根据上述化工领域多维度数据筛选， 纯碱、氨纶、染料（活性染料、分散染料）、煤化工（DMF、己内酰胺、辛醇、尿素、醋酸酯等）、 聚氨酯（TDI、MDI）、钛白粉、有机硅等行业大类，同时满足至少2条以上筛选标准，建议高度关 注。 ...