Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10][11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting observation for nickel; range trading for tin; trading sideways for gold, silver, and lithium carbonate [1][14][16][17][19][20][22][23]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Bullish and sideways for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins; shorting on rallies for soda ash; buying on dips but not chasing highs for rubber; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][28][30][31][33][34]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish and sideways for cotton and cotton yarn; trading sideways for apples and jujubes [1][37][38][40]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Rolling short positions at high levels for 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish and sideways with a rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][42][43][44][46][47]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, economic data, and seasonal trends to analyze the price trends of different futures and gives corresponding investment strategies [1]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Although the market is under pressure due to geopolitical issues, it is bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term yields may turn to low - level sideways trading after the end of the quarter - end scale - chasing demand. The pricing logic of ultra - long - term bonds may return to the fundamentals, and they are expected to trade sideways [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The total inventory of coking coal is slightly accumulating, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [8][9]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is below the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and range trading is recommended [10]. - **Glass**: The cost speculation sentiment has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good. The price is expected to be weak in April, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by multiple factors such as inflation, a strong dollar, and high inventory, copper prices are under pressure, but domestic inventory reduction and the arrival of the consumption season will provide support. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies and pay attention to relevant factors [14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The price may be boosted by supply concerns, but the demand is also suppressed by high - price fluctuations. It is recommended to strengthen observation [16]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is tight, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to trade sideways, and observation is recommended [17][18]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is in rigid demand. It is expected to trade in a wide range, and range trading is recommended [19]. - **Silver and Gold**: The price rebounds due to geopolitical factors, and the medium - term price center moves up. They are expected to trade sideways, and observation and cautious trading are recommended [20][21][22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to trade in a range [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is expected to be bullish and sideways in the short term, and trading within the rising channel is recommended [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand from alumina production provides support, and the export is expected to increase. It is expected to be bullish and sideways in the short term, and chasing highs should be cautious [27]. - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to be bullish and sideways, and buying on dips but not chasing highs is recommended [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand, it is expected to be bullish and sideways [30]. - **Rubber**: There is a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It is expected to be bullish and sideways, and buying on dips but not chasing highs is recommended [31]. - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers is strong. It is expected to be bullish and sideways, and range trading is recommended [32][33]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are both at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be bullish and sideways, and range trading is recommended [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to be high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [34][35]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production is increasing, and the consumption is slightly decreasing. The domestic consumption is strong, and it is expected to be bullish and sideways [37]. - **Apples**: The market is in a polarized state, and the price is expected to trade sideways [38][39]. - **Jujubes**: The raw material acquisition is based on quality, and the price is expected to trade sideways [40]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to bottom sideways. For 05 and 07 contracts, shorting at high levels is recommended; for 09, 11, and 01 contracts, hedging should be cautious [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price is weak, and shorting on weak rebounds of near - month contracts is recommended [43]. - **Corn**: The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and hedging on weak rebounds of near - month contracts is recommended [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The 05 contract is expected to trade at a high level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 - 2950 [46]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by factors such as palm oil inventory reduction and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia, they are expected to be bullish and sideways, and a rolling long strategy is recommended [47][48][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and investors need to remain cautious and adopt a risk - averse strategy. The situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on various markets, including energy, commodities, and financial markets. In April, the end of Trump's suspension of attacks on Iranian energy facilities on April 6 and the A - share earnings report season are important observation points. The market may experience a decline in trading volume before the holiday, and the short - term rebound repair may be limited. It is recommended to control positions and wait for confirmation of volume indicators [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - US President Trump will visit China from May 14th to 15th, and China and the US are in communication about this [7]. - Trump postponed the attack on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6, 2026, at 8 pm Eastern Time. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal with four conditions [7]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating a "final blow" military option against Iran, including actions such as blockades and attacks on key facilities. Iran has organized over a million people for ground combat and warned of opening a new front [8]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand, suggesting that the international community encourage the US and Iran to return to the negotiation table [8]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Scherzma, and they exchanged views on Sino - Dutch semiconductor cooperation [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement, and 96 central departments publicly announced their 2026 budgets with a 7.2% year - on - year decrease in the "Three Public Expenses" [9]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On March 30, the sugar price closed down with a decrease in trading volume. The domestic supply is relatively abundant, but the international market provides support. If the price can stabilize above 5400 yuan/ton, a light - position long position can be considered, with a resistance level around 5500 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: On March 30, the corn price broke through the lower limit of the previous oscillation range. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a resistance level at 2350 - 2360 yuan and a support level at 2330 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: On March 30, the peanut price oscillated at a high level with a decrease in trading volume. The supply is tight, and the demand is divided. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, with a support level at 8000 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price was stable, showing a pattern of "rising in the north and falling in the south". The short - position should be reduced as the market shows signs of stabilization [13]. - **Egg**: The national egg price was stable. The futures price adjusted, and it is recommended to short in the short term [13]. - **Red Date**: The domestic red date market has weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to operate within the range [13]. - **Cotton**: On March 30, the cotton price oscillated within a narrow range. The supply is supported by production reduction expectations, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to go long at the lower limit of the oscillation range, with a resistance level at 15500 yuan/ton and a support level at 15300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased. Overseas supply is tightening, and domestic exports are expected to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to the risk of near - month contract correction [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke increased, and the downstream demand also increased. The first round of coke price increase is expected to be implemented on April 1. It is expected that the overall trend will be strong, with support levels at 1150 - 1200 yuan for coking coal and 1700 yuan for coke [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply pressure of double - offset paper is high, and the demand is weak. The price is restricted by supply and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range of 4000 - 4200 yuan [15]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price is stable. The supply and demand are in a balanced state. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate within the range of 1780 - 1950 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East and the Fed's monetary policy signal. The prices are oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to risks [15]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are affected by the situation in the Middle East. The copper - aluminum ratio may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to relevant economic data [15][17]. - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina supply is large, but there are concerns about the supply of bauxite from Guinea. It is recommended to go long at low prices, while being vigilant against macro risks [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot market of rebar and hot - rolled coil is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate and adjust slightly [17]. - **Ferroalloy**: The ferroalloy market is oscillating at a high level. The cost is supported, but attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate continued to be strong and broke through the previous high. The supply is disturbed, and the demand is slightly increasing. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy, while being vigilant against high - level oscillation risks [17][19]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: On March 30, the A - share market had mixed performance. The trading volume of the stock index futures decreased, and the implied volatility of options increased. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend [21]. - **Stock Index**: On March 30, the three major A - share indexes had mixed performance. The European and American stock markets also had mixed performance. The market is affected by the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate policy. It is recommended to control positions and wait for market stabilization [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The dovish stance of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the escalating Middle - East situation led to the fluctuating upward trend of gold and silver prices. The expected improvement in US - Iran peace talks and the cooling of interest - rate hike expectations made the prices of gold and silver fluctuate strongly [4][5]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the increasing expectation of interest - rate hikes caused gold prices to continue to give back gains in recent years. However, with the approaching mid - term elections, there was still macro - level support [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The dovish statement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the escalation of the Middle - East situation made the gold price fluctuate upward. The US three major stock indexes had mixed closing results, European three major stock indexes all rose, US bond yields fell across the board, the 10 - year US bond yield dropped 7.76 basis points to 4.350%, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 100.51, the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 6.9164, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.36% to $4540.40 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price also fluctuated upward. COMEX silver futures rose 0.55% to $70.18 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.6, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which was neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 106,644 kilograms, which was bearish. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish. The main net long position increased, which was bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 34, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which was neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,628 kilograms to 374,427 kilograms, which was bullish. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish. The main net long position decreased, which was bullish [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Multiple events were to be focused on, including French President Macron's visit to Japan, Japan's February unemployment rate and March Tokyo CPI, Australia's March monetary policy meeting minutes, China's March official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI, and many more speeches by central bank officials and economic data releases [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation was affected by factors such as the Federal Reserve's attitude, the Middle - East situation, and the US stock and bond markets. The basis, inventory, and technical indicators all had an impact on the gold price [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price was affected by multiple factors including the Federal Reserve's attitude, the Middle - East situation, and the US stock and bond markets. The basis, inventory, and technical indicators also influenced the silver price [5]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 1,974 to 147,144, a decrease of 1.32%. The short - position volume increased by 2,307 to 44,494, an increase of 5.47%. The net position decreased by 4,281 to 102,650, a decrease of 4.00% [38]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver increased by 238 to 240,033, an increase of 0.10%. The short - position volume increased by 1,561 to 214,706, an increase of 0.73%. The net position decreased by 1,323 to 25,327, a decrease of 4.96% [41].

Group 1: Report Information - Report type: Stock index daily review [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Group 2: Market Review - On March 30, the Wind All - A index rose slightly with increased trading volume, opening with a decline, then rebounding and moving sideways in the afternoon, closing up 0.05% with over 50% of stocks rising. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 closed down 0.24% and 0.14% respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 closed up 0.21% and 0.28% respectively. In the futures market, the IF, IH, and IM main contracts fell 0.30%, 0.07%, and 0.19% respectively, and the IC main contract rose 0.02% [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - The current major contradiction is the US - Iran conflict. High oil prices have led to concerns about re - inflation, suppressing risk assets. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have a reduced impact on the market. In China, economic data from January - February showed better - than - expected exports, retail sales, and industrial added value. The trading volume in the two markets has been stable at around 2 trillion, and the margin trading balance remains high. In the short term, due to geopolitical uncertainties, oil price - induced stagflation concerns, and cautious market sentiment during the earnings disclosure period, a rapid V - shaped reversal is unlikely, and the index will remain range - bound. In the long term, liquidity concerns are expected to improve after the conflict eases. China's supply - chain competitive advantage makes it more resilient. As the macro - economic fundamentals and corporate earnings turn around, the main driving force of A - shares may shift from liquidity to substantial performance improvement. Also, after the IC and IM main contracts switched to the far - month contracts, there was a deep discount again. Considering the long - term optimistic outlook for the index, the roll - down strategy can be tried to obtain excess returns [8][9] Group 4: Industry News - On March 12, at a regular press conference, in response to the US government's new trade investigations on 16 major trading partners including China, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China opposes all forms of unilateral tariff measures, and that the so - called "over - capacity" is a false proposition and opposes political manipulation under this pretext [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for oil prices is oscillating on the stronger side. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the export and price of new US soybeans. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up oil prices. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8810, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, but a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the export data in January shows an increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9660, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish. - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10304, with a basis of 413, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9700 - 11000 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high. - **Current Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the current overall situation remains weak and under pressure. Although the supply - side pressure has eased compared to last week, it is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The demand side is persistently weak, with increased cold - repairs in downstream float glass and slow recovery in real - estate completion data. The inventory, although slightly reduced, is still at a historical high above 1.8 million tons. In the short term, due to the impact of the ongoing geopolitical war, there is a moderate bullish sentiment, but in the long - term, there is significant downward price pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - The glass futures market is in a difficult - to - move up or down oscillating pattern. The upper price limit is due to high inventory and production restart expectations, while the lower limit is supported by cold - repair expectations and raw material price fluctuations. The cold - repair of production lines cannot fundamentally improve the supply situation, and inventory is still increasing, indicating a slow recovery in seasonal demand. In the short term, coal and natural gas price fluctuations have a significant impact on glass prices, and in the long - term, the upward price movement depends on raw material cost support and property sales data. Currently, the market is in a traditional off - season, and due to geopolitical influence, there is a short - term opportunity to go long, but the upside is limited [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash**: On March 30, the main soda ash futures contract SA605 continued to decline, closing at 1,207 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.71%, with an increase of 28,810 lots in positions. The fundamental situation shows a weak market. The supply - side pressure has eased but is still high, and the demand side is weak. The inventory is high, and the de - stocking process is blocked. In the short term, there is a bullish sentiment due to geopolitical factors, but in the long - term, shorting on rallies is recommended [7][8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price is in an oscillating pattern. The upper price limit is restricted by high inventory and production restart expectations, and the lower limit is supported by cold - repair expectations and raw material price fluctuations. The cold - repair of production lines cannot improve the supply situation, and inventory is increasing, indicating slow demand recovery. In the short term, raw material price fluctuations have a significant impact, and in the long - term, the upward movement depends on raw material cost support and property sales data. Short - term long - positions can be considered, but the upside is limited [9][10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [12][13][17]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. The nickel ore price is firm, and the Indonesian RKAB policy is still having an impact. Nickel - iron prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is firm. Stainless - steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. New - energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bullish. Conclusion: The Shanghai nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is firm, Indonesian demand is strong, nickel - iron prices are weakly stable, and the cost line has strong support. Stainless - steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. The basis is bullish, inventory is neutral, and the disk is bullish. Conclusion: The stainless - steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 - **期货价格**: On March 30, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 137,120 yuan, up 20 yuan from March 27; the London nickel price was 17,325, up 110; the stainless - steel main contract was 14,370 yuan, down 20 yuan. The nickel index was 135,900 yuan, up 650 yuan, and the cold - rolled index was 13,834 yuan, up 6 yuan [9]. - **Spot price**: On March 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 137,700 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 140,250 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 135,150 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; nickel beans were 137,950 yuan, down 1,150 yuan. Cold - rolled 304*2B prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [9]. 镍仓单、库存 - **上期所镍库存**: As of March 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 64,479 tons, with the futures inventory at 57,069 tons, an increase of 818 tons and 379 tons respectively. On March 30, the LME nickel inventory was 281,574 tons (unchanged), the nickel (warehouse receipt) was 57,173 tons, an increase of 104 tons, and the total inventory was 338,747 tons, an increase of 104 tons [11][12]. 不锈钢仓单、库存 - **Physical inventory**: On March 27, the Wuxi inventory was 601,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 390,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,157,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,100 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons. - **Futures inventory**: On March 30, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt was 45,676 tons, unchanged from March 27 [16][17]. 镍矿、镍铁价格 - **Nickel ore**: On March 30, the CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 79 US dollars per wet ton, down 0.5 US dollars; Ni0.9% was 35 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [21]. - **Nickel - iron**: The price of high - nickel wet tons (8 - 12) was 1,085.28 yuan per nickel point, down 0.45 yuan; the price of low - nickel wet tons (below 2) was 3,650 yuan per ton, unchanged [21]. 不锈钢生产成本 - The traditional cost was 14,196 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,081 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 17,888 yuan [23]. 镍进口成本测算 The converted import price was 135,923 yuan per ton [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with Trump threatening to destroy Iranian energy facilities and Iran planning to charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar index, and higher US Treasury yields, which initially dampened global risk appetite but later recovered after Fed Chairman Powell's dovish signals. Domestically, the economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is mainly focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the domestic stock index market is oscillating weakly in the short term [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are oscillating weakly in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Global situation**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, oil prices are increasing, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strengthening, initially suppressing global risk appetite. After Powell's dovish signals, the US Treasury sell - off eased, yields declined, and risk appetite recovered [2]. - **Domestic situation**: In January - February 2026, the economy and inflation exceeded expectations, with strong exports and rising inflation. The policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The stock index market is oscillating weakly due to concerns about the Middle East situation [2][3]. - **Asset trends**: Stocks are oscillating weakly and volatile in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market rebounded due to the performance of precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural products. The economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the stock index market is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Monday night. With rising oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, spot gold was under pressure. It first reached the $4580 mark and then fell back, with a final increase of 0.35% to $4510.97 per ounce. Spot silver also rose and then fell, closing up 0.48% at $70.047 per ounce. Precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. Due to the Middle East conflict, inflation concerns increased. The real - world demand improved marginally, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and inventory decline accelerating. Supply decreased slightly, and iron - water production increased slightly. The steel market will follow cost trends in the short term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday. Rising oil prices supported the iron ore price. Iron - water production increased to over 230 tons, and the proportion of profitable steel mills was around 43%, indicating strong demand. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 6.71 million tons week - on - week, while arrivals increased by 2.113 million tons. The price increase space is limited, and there is a risk of adjustment if energy prices weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. Rising energy prices supported the alloy prices. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 6220 - 6320 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 6300 - 6350 yuan/ton. Rising costs led some factories to reduce production. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is at a low level, and the production cost is supported. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be oscillating strongly [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, leading to a large decrease in social inventory. However, the inventory reduction may slow down after the replenishment. The copper market supply is abundant, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts inventory reduction. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, with a tight but not extremely short supply [8]. - **Aluminum**: An attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. However, the company plans to resume operations soon. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is high, and the reduction is slow due to high supply [8]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically stable, at 21.4 million tons, slightly lower than in 2022. The zinc ore processing fee in the south has rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the production is at a relatively high level. The demand is not optimistic [9][10]. - **Lead**: The domestic lead ingot inventory increased from 57,600 tons to 60,100 tons, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead is increasing seasonally. The demand peak has passed, and the import volume in the first two months increased significantly [10]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy on nickel is uncertain. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and MHP supply may decline. Nickel prices have support at the bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [11]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diverse. The demand is mixed, with semiconductor sales growing but other industries performing poorly. Tin prices rebounded due to increased risk appetite and inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the volatile market sentiment [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 4.53% on Monday. The supply and demand are both strong, the social inventory is low, and the smelting plant inventory is continuously low. With low inventory and supply disruptions, the upward potential is large. It is recommended to buy at low prices or hold long positions cautiously [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell 2.01% on Monday. The supply and demand are weak, the capacity is surplus, and the inventory is high. It is priced close to cost and follows the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to operate within a range [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose 3.45% on Monday. The price is at the full - cost range, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or take partial profits [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US threat to Iran led to the US oil price reaching over $100 for the first time after the war. The conflict is unlikely to end soon, and the short - term oil price will continue to be strong [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded with the rising oil price. The supply problem persists, and the seasonal demand will increase, leading to inventory reduction. The short - term price will follow the oil price, and attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [15]. - **PX**: The PX price is strong due to the reduction of Japanese and Korean device operations and increased domestic maintenance plans. However, the price increase may be limited by the increased PTA maintenance plans [16]. - **PTA**: The terminal production and sales are low, but PTA prices rose with the decline of the reforming device. The negative feedback from the downstream restricts the price increase, but the overall trend is still upward [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease due to raw material problems. The price is rising, but attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price is oscillating strongly, following the PTA and other varieties. The raw material price is high, but the recovery is restricted by the downstream production reduction [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The domestic and port methanol markets are strong. International supply has tightened due to device shutdowns, and the port inventory is decreasing. The price is rising but with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and downstream negative feedback [18]. - **PP**: The PP market price has increased due to supply reduction and demand increase. The key variable is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price is adjusting. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, leading to inventory reduction. The price is expected to be strong, but there is pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are important [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The policy and demand are in a game, and the price will oscillate narrowly in the short term [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and attention should be paid to the planting intention report and quarterly grain inventory report. Analysts expect the 2026 sowing area to increase [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased seasonally, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal decreased. The basis is high, and the short - term supply is tight, but the future supply is expected to be loose. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and it will oscillate with soybean meal [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT soybean oil price rose. The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, and the oil price is affected by the rising crude oil price. The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory increased [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD palm oil price rose. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy boosted the market. The Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in March, and the export increased significantly. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased [23]. - **Corn**: The corn price shows regional differentiation. The inventory in the northern ports increased, and the price in the northeast is weak. The downstream demand is affected by alternative sources, and the price may be restricted by the possible rice auction [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig weight is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The short - term profit is in deficit, and the policy encourages production reduction. The short - term spot price may weaken, while the long - term outlook is improving. There is risk in the short - term futures market [24].

Group 1: Hot News - Trump said Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15-point ceasefire plan", and the US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power plants, oil wells, etc. if no agreement is reached soon. The White House press secretary said Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran by April 6 and calls on Arab countries to bear the cost of US military operations against Iran [2] - Iran stated that if its power facilities are attacked, it will cause a power outage in the entire region. Iran's president said ending the war should be based on safeguarding national dignity, interests, and security. The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said Iran has not had direct negotiations with the US, and the so - called "15 - point ceasefire plan" is "excessive and unreasonable" [2] - China is accelerating the promotion of a new tax - local surtax. The Ministry of Finance first proposed to formulate and revise relevant laws such as the Local Surtax Law in its 2026 work plan [2] - Indonesia's president said during a visit to Japan that Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy plan this year [3] - Silicon - manganese plants are reducing production as planned, with most starting to cut production by about 30% on April 1. The total monthly spontaneous emission reduction of national manganese - alloy enterprises is expected to be 221,000 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 32.01%, a decrease of 4.08% from last week, and the daily output is 27,380 tons, a decrease of 650 tons [3] Group 2: Key Focus and Night - Market Performance - Key focus: Urea, coking coal, polysilicon, PVC, plastic [4] - Night - market performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.58%, precious metals rose 25.19%, oilseeds and oils rose 8.82%, soft commodities rose 2.54%, coal - coking - steel - minerals rose 9.90%, energy rose 7.95%, chemicals rose 15.88%, grains rose 1.04%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.90% [4] - Color metals rose 23.20% [5] Group 3: Commodity Futures Plate Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures plates in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal - coking - steel - minerals, Wind color metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year - to - date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.24 | - 5.76 | - 1.15 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.14 | - 6.79 | - 6.53 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.24 | - 4.64 | - 2.98 | | | CSI 500 | 0.21 | - 10.45 | 3.86 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.39 | - 7.78 | - 7.33 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.81 | - 7.06 | - 3.43 | | | German DAX | 1.18 | - 10.76 | - 7.87 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 2.79 | - 11.83 | 3.07 | | | UK FTSE 100 | 1.61 | - 7.17 | 1.98 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.49 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.31 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.09 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.65 | 18.75 | 24.27 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 5.56 | 56.45 | 82.92 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.45 | - 14.49 | 4.52 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 8.28 | - 2.41 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.87 | - 18.62 | - 1.17 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.33 | 2.93 | 2.28 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | - 1.42 | 54.13 | 104.75 | [7] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, gold - oil ratio, copper - gold ratio, risk premium of stocks, and futures prices of CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices in early April did not meet the announced increase, mainly remaining the same or slightly declining. The Houthi attacks on Israel may expand the conflict to the Red Sea, but the impact on the actual operation routes of European lines is limited. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. After Iran established a safety corridor, the passage through the strait has rebounded slightly recently, and the geopolitical premium may be partially reversed. - The outlook is weak and volatile. The online freight rates of Jiyu are expected to be weak and volatile. The SCFIS European line is expected to reach a recent high next week and then decline. The establishment of Iran's passage mechanism may lead to a partial reversal of the geopolitical premium [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Logic - According to the latest special report, the spot prices in early April did not meet the announced increase, mainly remaining the same or slightly declining. The Houthi attacks on Israel may expand the conflict to the Red Sea, with limited impact on European lines. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. After Iran established a safety corridor, the passage through the strait has rebounded slightly recently, and the geopolitical premium may be partially reversed [1][6]. 3.2 Spot Market Freight Rates - MSK's online freight rate for the AE1 route in the second week of April was $2350/FEU, up $50 from the opening. HPL SPOT's low - end price for the AE2/NE1 route in early April was adjusted down to $2147/FEU, a decrease of $200 from the previous week. Other voyages remained at $3035/FEU, and the online price in the second half of April was also adjusted down to $3035/FEU. The price in May remained at $3535/FEU. - OOCL's price in the first week of April remained at $2781 - 2881/FEU, up $50 - $100 from the end of March. In the second week of April, the high - end online price decreased, and the freight rates above $3000/FEU dropped to $2787 - 2880/FEU. EMC's freight rate remained unchanged, with a special - offer voyage CES on April 1 at $2650/FEU and other voyages in April at $3060/FEU. CMA CGM's online freight rate in early April was $2725/FEU. - MSC's online freight rate in early April remained at $2852/FEU. ONE's online freight rate at the beginning of April dropped to $2561/FEU, basically the same as at the end of March, and was at $3061/FEU from the second half of April to May [2]. 3.3 Passage Through the Strait - On March 29, there were 8 passages through the strait, including 1 dry - bulk carrier operated by Jia Xiang Da Shipping Co Ltd, a shipping company from Hong Kong, China. - On March 27, the VLCC freight rate from the Middle East to China was updated to $10.78/barrel, a 2% decrease from the previous period, and the VLCC freight rate from West Africa to China was updated to $8.26/barrel, a 1.4% decrease. - Iranian officials plan to implement an access and toll system for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, establishing a new strait management system similar to Turkey's management of the Bosphorus Strait and Egypt's management of the Suez Canal [3][6]. 3.4 Futures Contract Data | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Settlement Price (Points) | Price Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Long Position (Lots) | Short Position (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2604 | 1719.7 | 1757.1 | 1.0408 | 8177 | 7029 | 4577 | 5171 | | EC2605 | 2005.6 | 2049 | - 0.3478 | 1460 | 2027 | | | | EC2606 | 2532.3 | 2567.2 | 7.7886 | 26147 | 17711 | | | | EC2607 | 2625 | 2670 | 4.3198 | 635 | 1231 | | | | EC2608 | 2539 | 2545.6 | 6.958 | 1308 | 2808 | | | | EC2609 | 1753.7 | 1778.9 | 3.1467 | 111 | 541 | | | | EC2610 | 1834.2 | 1656.5 | 4.3399 | 3462 | 7135 | | | | EC2612 | 1834.2 | 1840.7 | 5.1648 | 214 | 471 | | | [9] 3.5 Spot Freight Rate Data | | SCFI | SCFIS | | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index (Points) | 1826.8 | | | Northern European Route ($/TEU) | 1703 | 1752.54 (+3.5%) | | Mediterranean Route ($/TEU) | 2764 | | | US West Route ($/FEU) | 2352 | 1263.40(+23.4%) | | US East Route ($/FEU) | 3264 | | [10]