Group 1 - Aluminum prices have shown limited pullback after breaking the 22,000 yuan/ton mark in mid-November, with a bullish outlook expected to continue [1] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, with current operational capacity at 44.434 million tons, indicating limited room for future capacity increases [2] - The low proportion of aluminum ingots in the current supply structure, with only 22.3% of production being ingots, tightens delivery supplies and supports low inventory levels [2] Group 2 - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is primarily driven by construction (30%), transportation (20%), and electricity (16%), with the real estate market currently in a recovery phase [3] - The automotive sector has shown robust performance, with October production and sales of vehicles increasing by 12.1% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively [3] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) have a significantly higher aluminum consumption per vehicle compared to traditional fuel vehicles, with NEV production and sales in October rising by 21.1% and 20.0% year-on-year [4] Group 3 - The photovoltaic industry continues to drive demand for electrolytic aluminum, with a 39.48% year-on-year increase in cumulative installed capacity as of October [4] - Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum stood at 612,000 tons as of November 24, showing a decrease from the previous week and remaining low compared to last year [5] - Overall, the stable supply and growing demand from emerging industries like NEVs and photovoltaics suggest a favorable outlook for aluminum prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [8] Core Viewpoints - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory has decreased, and the future consumption is expected to be optimistic. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. - The spot market price of alumina is basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The cost support needs to be tested, and the social inventory continues to increase. The procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. Summary by Category Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount has no change compared to the previous trading day, remaining at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,305 yuan/ton, closed at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of - 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,295 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 187,943 lots, and the position was 288,083 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 24, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 24, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,717 yuan/ton, closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 0.11%. The highest price reached 2,754 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,707 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 252,047 lots, and the position was 388,713 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 24, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The inventory absolute value is still low, which is difficult to have a negative impact on the price. The future consumption is expected to be optimistic, the interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang carried out a regular tender for 10,000 tons of alumina spot, with the arrival price of 3,120 - 3,130 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines are facing environmental protection pressure in the short term, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, so the sentiment towards the price has weakened. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, so the procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the bauxite price has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The company is considering the possibility of introducing Hangzhou Jinjiang Group as a strategic investor, given its status as a leading player in the national aluminum industry [1] Group 1 - Hangzhou Jinjiang Group is recognized as a leader in the aluminum industry in China [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract operating in the range of 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market will likely maintain high - level oscillations, with the SHFE main contract in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [2]. Tin - In the short term, although macro fluctuations are large, considering the limited supply recovery this year and the strong fundamentals, a bullish stance on tin price corrections is maintained. The focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [4]. Zinc - The zinc market is likely to oscillate. The price has limited downward space in the short term, but the fundamentals also provide limited impetus for continuous upward movement. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 22800 [6]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract reference range is 85000 - 87800, with attention on overseas interest - rate cut expectations and other macro drivers [8]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 113000 - 118000. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 12200 - 12600. The focus is on steel - mill production cuts and ferronickel prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market may first decline and then oscillate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton [15]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market is expected to have low - level oscillations, with the main price fluctuation range likely between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [17]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. For trading strategies, try to go long around 50,000 on the futures side; hold/sell put options on the options side, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 21380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The import loss was 1798 yuan/ton, and the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.63 [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a 2.39% increase; electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a 3.52% increase [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price dropped to 21350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 4.48% [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.50 million tons, a 2.42% decrease; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, a 1.06% increase [2]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price dropped to 291300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import loss was 16328.60 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, a 15.13% decrease. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16090 tons, a 53.09% increase [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The import loss was 4165 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a 2.85% increase; imports were 1.88 million tons, a 16.94% decrease [6]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82872 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The refined - scrap price difference was 2675 yuan/ton, a 12.75% decrease [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a 2.62% decrease; imports were 28.21 million tons, a 15.61% decrease [8]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 116700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped to 891 yuan/nickel point, a 0.39% decrease [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a 0.84% increase; imports were 38164 tons, a 124.36% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price dropped to 891 yuan/nickel point, a 0.39% decrease [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a 0.38% increase; exports were 35.81 million tons, a 14.43% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 92300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10%. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price dropped to 6807 dollars/ton, a 2.51% decrease [15]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a 5.73% increase; demand was 126961 tons, an 8.70% increase [15]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained at 9550 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 monthly spread increased by 200% [17]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, a 7.46% increase; exports were 4.51 million tons, a 35.82% decrease [17]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The N - type re - feedstock average price remained at 52300 yuan/ton. The main contract price rose to 53360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% [18]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production was 2.71 million tons, a 1.12% increase; monthly production was 13.40 million tons, a 3.08% increase [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - risk appetite in the aluminum market is under pressure, but in the medium - term, the growth potential of aluminum due to AI - related energy and storage demand is still worthy of attention. However, there are also negative factors such as Indonesia's over - expected electrolytic aluminum production and pessimistic photovoltaic demand. In the short - term, the end - of - year destocking of aluminum depends on photovoltaic production and imports [3]. - The fundamental pressure of alumina remains unresolved. The rigid production supply puts pressure on prices, and the price may continue to be under pressure in the short - term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Macro and Medium - term Outlook**: The macro risk appetite is under pressure, and the AI narrative bubble is deflating. In the medium - term, the demand for aluminum in the energy and storage sectors related to AI is expected, but there are negative factors like Indonesia's over - expected electrolytic aluminum production and pessimistic photovoltaic demand. In the short - term, the end - year destocking depends on photovoltaic production and imports [3]. - **Short - term Micro - supply and Demand**: The destocking at the end of the year depends on the year - on - year decline in photovoltaic production in late November and December and the reduction in aluminum ingot imports under processing trade. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons to 61.3 million tons this week [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is relatively resilient but not strong. The total weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil decreased, and the aluminum profile construction continued to decline slightly. The aluminum rod processing fee increased [3]. Alumina - **Fundamentals**: The fundamental pressure remains unresolved. The rigid production supply puts pressure on prices, and the price may continue to be under pressure in the short - term. The total inventory continued to increase this week [4]. - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is relatively stable, but if the futures price continues to fall, the spot price may follow. The current spot inventory of futures - cash traders is low, and they are waiting for the right time to sell [4]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum factory's alumina inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory decreasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory increasing slightly [43]. Transaction - related (Spread, Volume, and Open Interest) - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot premium/discount was differentiated, and the alumina spot premium strengthened. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium remained at 0 yuan/ton, while the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium increased from - 145 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month increased from - 43 yuan/ton to 41 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina increased from 42 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of SHFE aluminum fluctuated slightly [11]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased significantly, and the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, while the trading volume decreased slightly [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum decreased, and that of alumina continued to decline and is at a historical low [18]. Inventory (Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products) Bauxite - **Port Inventory**: As of November 21, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 49.87 million tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same [23]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of October, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises increased by 67 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in the alumina factory increased [28]. - **Port Shipment and Floating Inventory**: As of November 21, the weekly shipment volume from Guinea and Australia ports decreased, and the floating inventory in Guinea increased while that in Australia decreased [29]. - **Out - port and In - port Volume**: As of November 14, the out - port volume from Australian ports decreased, while that from Guinean ports increased. The in - port volume increased significantly [34]. Alumina - **Total Inventory**: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum factory's alumina inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory decreasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory increasing slightly [43]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Seasonal Pattern and Current Inventory**: According to the seasonal pattern, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches its peak in the fifth or sixth week after the holiday and then enters a destocking cycle. As of November 20, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.1 million tons to 61.3 million tons [51]. Processed Products - **Aluminum Rod**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods showed a differentiated trend this week [57]. - **Aluminum Profile and Plate, Strip, and Foil**: As of October, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly. For SMM aluminum plate, strip, and foil, the finished - product inventory ratio increased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio decreased slightly [60]. Production (Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate) Bauxite - **Domestic Supply**: The domestic bauxite supply is mainly stable. In October, the SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output decreased slightly. Imported bauxite is an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. By province, the bauxite output in Shanxi showed different trends in different calibers, and the output in Henan decreased while that in Guangxi increased [65]. Alumina - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina remained basically stable. As of November 21, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country was 96.6 billion tons, with a weekly increase of 0.6 billion tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.845 billion tons this week, an increase of 0.002 billion tons from last week, remaining at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply of alumina remains loose [70]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Operating Capacity and Output**: As of October, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate was high due to profit recovery. As of November 20, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 0.8547 billion tons, an increase of 0.0003 billion tons from last week, remaining at a six - year high. During the peak consumption season, the proportion of molten aluminum increased, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decrease [73]. Downstream Processing - **Output**: The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 500 tons this week. The output of aluminum rods increased by 0.31 million tons, and the output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil decreased by 0.14 million tons [76]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises remained unchanged. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip increased slightly, while that of aluminum foil decreased. The operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, and that of aluminum cables increased slightly. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys remained unchanged [77]. Profit Alumina - **Overall and Provincial Profits**: The profit of alumina decreased slightly this week. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 135.4 yuan/ton. By province, the profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better due to relatively firm cost [83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Profit Level and Uncertainties**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and affected market expectations [95]. Downstream Processing - **Aluminum Rod Processing Fee and Profit**: The aluminum rod processing fee increased by 170 yuan/ton this week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [96]. Consumption Import and Export Profit and Loss - **Import**: The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum narrowed [105]. - **Export**: In October 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 1.7 million tons month - on - month. The export demand for aluminum products is blocked by trade policy adjustments, and the export profit and loss of aluminum processed products is differentiated [107]. Apparent Demand - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area decreased, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Rainy - season shipping is gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production cut expectation is strengthening. Also, the overall non - ferrous sector is trending strongly, so the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 p.m. on November 21, the alumina index fell 3.76% to 2737 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 0.1 million lots to 57.3 million lots. The Fed's hawkish stance and the unsolved alumina supply - surplus situation led to a further decline in alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was 2775 yuan/ton, with a premium of 71 yuan/ton over the December 12 contract. The spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 107 yuan/ton, and the weak spot made the near - month contract relatively weaker [11][24]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 15 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and increased by 5 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices were still under pressure [11][21]. - **Inventory**: Alumina's total social inventory increased by 4.3 million tons to 488.3 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 3.2 million tons, decreased by 2 million tons, increased by 3.7 million tons, and decreased by 0.6 million tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.27 million tons to 25.09 million tons; the delivery warehouse inventory was 25.58 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons from last week. The supply of circulating spot became looser, and the warehouse receipt registration volume further increased this week [11][68][70]. - **Mineral End**: Recently, domestic bauxite production has declined due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south. Domestic ore prices remain firm, but alumina plants' willingness to lower prices has increased due to shrinking profits. For imported ores, the shipping volume is stable, port inventory is rising, and ore prices are under further pressure after the rainy season [12]. - **Supply Side**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 184.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.2 million tons from last week [12][43]. - **Import and Export**: As of November 21, the Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 41 yuan/ton. Overseas alumina prices have been fluctuating in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars recently, and the domestic spot price has been continuously declining, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss [12][50]. - **Demand Side**: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4456 million tons, the same as last month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [12][60]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed this week. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 15 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and increased by 5 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices were still under pressure [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 p.m. on November 21, the alumina index fell 3.76% to 2737 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 0.1 million lots to 57.3 million lots. The Fed's hawkish stance and the unsolved alumina supply - surplus situation led to a further decline in alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was 2775 yuan/ton, with a premium of 71 yuan/ton over the December 12 contract. The spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 107 yuan/ton, and the weak spot made the near - month contract relatively weaker [24]. - **Bauxite Price**: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ores, the Guinea CIF price decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton to 71.5 US dollars/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at 68 US dollars/ton. After the impact of the rainy season in Guinea subsided, the ore shipping volume increased. The shrinking profit led to an enhanced willingness of alumina enterprises to lower prices. Coupled with the high port inventory, ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 477 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total production was 5052 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental policies, domestic bauxite production has been decreasing month by month [31]. - **Bauxite Import**: In October 2025, China imported 1377 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total import was 17140 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11% [33]. - **Bauxite Import by Country**: In October 2025, China imported 900 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative import from Guinea was 12743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, it declined and is expected to gradually recover later. In October 2025, China imported 382 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative import from Australia was 3160 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [35][37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In October, China's bauxite inventory increased by 24 million tons, with the total inventory reaching 5250 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises' ore inventory was sufficient. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 28 million tons, and that in Henan decreased by 36 million tons in October. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In October 2025, alumina production was 796.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88% and a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative production was 7480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.03% [42]. - **Alumina Operating Capacity**: In October 2025, the alumina operating capacity was 9640 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.57% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. As of November 21, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 184.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.2 million tons from last week [43]. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The alumina spot price has declined, and alumina plant profits are under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on November 21, in Guangxi, with the relatively low price of local domestic ores, the current production profit can reach 155 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinea ores in Shandong are 0 yuan/ton and 70 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The cost of transporting port - imported ores for inland alumina plants is about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the use of overseas ores in Shanxi and Henan has slightly turned into losses [46]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In October 2025, the net alumina import was 1.36 million tons. The opening of the import window earlier drove the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 6 million tons last month to 18.93 million tons, and the export volume decreased from 24.64 million tons to 17.57 million tons. In the first ten months of 2025, the total net export was 143.75 million tons. As of November 21, the Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 41 yuan/ton. Overseas alumina prices have been fluctuating in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars recently, and the domestic spot price has been continuously declining, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss [48][50]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In October 2025, overseas alumina production was 541 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.84% and a month - on - month increase of 3.36%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative production was 5191 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.24% [52]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total production was 3687 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [57]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Rate**: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4456 million tons, the same as last month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [60]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (including estimated values for November and December), showing data on alumina supply, demand, import, export, and the supply - demand difference for each month [63]. 3.6 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: Alumina's total social inventory increased by 4.3 million tons to 488.3 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 3.2 million tons, decreased by 2 million tons, increased by 3.7 million tons, and decreased by 0.6 million tons respectively [68]. - **Futures Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.27 million tons to 25.09 million tons this week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 25.58 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons from last week. The supply of circulating spot became looser, and the warehouse receipt registration volume further increased this week [70].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 铝期货方面：2025-11-19日沪铝主力合约开于21485元/吨，收于21570元/吨，较上一交易日变化25元/吨，最 高价达21620元/吨，最低价达到21435元/吨。全天交易日成交202981手，全天交易日持仓347833手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.6万吨，较上一期变化2.5万吨，仓单库存69484 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存546075吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-19SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得321美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-19氧化铝主力合约开于2776元/吨，收于2740元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-53 元/吨，变化幅度-1.90%，最高价达到2794元/吨，最低价为2738元/吨。全天交易日成交302092手，全天交易日 持仓426124手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 关注铝价超预期回调后的机会 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21460元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21340元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-150元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21320元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-165元/ 吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-18SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得320美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-18氧化铝主力合约开于2817元/吨，收于2780元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨，变化幅度-0.71%，最高价达到2822元/吨，最低价为2775元/吨。全天交易日成交264359手，全天交易日 持仓405010手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-18保太民用生铝采购价格16700元/吨， ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Group 1: Aluminum Market - The logic of aluminum shortage is expected to gradually materialize, leading to an upward cycle in aluminum prices, with electrolytic aluminum profits continuing to expand [3] - Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.48% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin for electrolytic aluminum rose by 5.40% to 6,051 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory levels show an increase in London aluminum stock by 0.57% to 552,400 tons and Shanghai aluminum stock by 1.38% to 114,900 tons, while domestic spot inventory decreased by 0.16% to 619,000 tons [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to macroeconomic factors, with London copper, Shanghai copper, and US copper showing respective changes of +0.99%, +1.12%, and +1.86% [2] - Domestic copper inventory is decreasing, with London copper at 136,000 tons, New York copper at 381,000 short tons, and Shanghai copper at 109,000 tons, showing changes of -0.13%, +3.23%, and -4.89% respectively [2] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased by 4.91 percentage points to 66.88% [2] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium demand has exceeded expectations, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 5.91% to 85,200 yuan/ton and spodumene concentrate increasing by 8.52% to 1,006 USD/ton [4][5] - Lithium carbonate production reached 21,500 tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1%, while weekly inventory decreased by 2.8% to 120,500 tons [4][5] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as inventory continues to decline [5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The tight supply of cobalt raw materials remains unchanged, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising, as MB cobalt increased by 0.53% to 23.65 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices rose by 3.39% to 397,000 yuan/ton [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, transitioning to a quota system, but current export approvals are still pending, indicating a continued tight supply in the short term [5]