1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - For copper, the current demand is seasonally weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained on Shanghai copper, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to May, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand. Inventory may continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, as well as far - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - For stainless steel, supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. - For lead, the price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. - For tin, the price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased from 180 to 110, and the warehouse receipt increased by 251. The spot import profit increased by 216.25, and the three - month import profit increased by 203.83 [1]. - **Analysis**: The demand is currently weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 40, and the domestic alumina price increased by 1. The social inventory showed a small change, and the exchange inventory remained the same [1]. - **Analysis**: Supply increased slightly from January to May, August is a seasonal off - season for demand, and inventory may continue to accumulate slightly. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the zinc price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,350. The import profit of Shanghai zinc increased [5]. - **Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 900. The import profit of spot nickel decreased by 660.34 [6]. - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Analysis**: Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of lead increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,700. The import profit of spot lead increased by 71.14 [8]. - **Analysis**: The price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. Tin - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot import profit of tin decreased by 2,016.08, and the LME inventory increased by 35. The LME C - 3M increased by 31 [12]. - **Analysis**: The price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the 421 Yunnan basis and 421 Sichuan basis changed, and the 553 East China basis and 553 Tianjin basis also changed. The number of warehouse receipts changed slightly [15]. - **Analysis**: The production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 750, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 700. The basis of the main contract increased by 1,530 [17]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminium prices lack upward elasticity due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. - The alumina supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. The inventory accumulation speed is increasing. There are still problems with the warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 20,620 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminium price is 20,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminium price is 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminium contract opened at 20,635 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,695 yuan/ton and a low of 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,985 lots, and the position was 272,707 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 53,074 tons, a change of - 524 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 456,100 tons, a change of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,259 yuan/ton, closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, a change of 33 yuan/ton (1.01%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a high of 3,311 yuan/ton and a low of 3,230 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 472,199 lots, and the position was 158,124 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On July 29, 2025, the Baotai purchase price of civil primary aluminium was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 63,600 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminium - Aluminium prices lack upward momentum due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract. The long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. Alumina - The supply side continues to resume production, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. There are problems with warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. Aluminium Alloy - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for aluminium, alumina, and aluminium alloy. - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminium positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [9].

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys)" dated July 29, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - The optimistic expectations of China's anti-involution policy are initially alleviated, and the reality of loose supply and demand suppresses domestic aluminum prices. Traditional consumption off - season inventory accumulation expectations also have a negative impact on prices [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Alumina Supply - Side Situation - Domestic: The first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started producing 440,000 tons/year of aluminum concentrate in June, which may increase domestic bauxite production and import in July. Multiple domestic alumina capacity expansion and construction projects are in progress, which may increase China's alumina production in July. The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton [3] - Overseas: Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian Bintan Alumina Phase III project and SPIC's Guinea Aluminum Project Phase II may increase overseas alumina production in July [3] Investment Strategy - Due to the increase in the price of imported Guinea bauxite pushing up production costs, but the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy and the loose supply - demand expectation, the alumina price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the pressure level around 3,500 - 3,800 [3] Basis and Month - Spread - The alumina basis is negative and at a low level, and the month - spread is positive and basically at a low level. It is recommended that investors go long on the alumina basis at low levels [12] Inventory - The inventory of alumina in Chinese ports and on the SHFE has increased compared with last week [13][15] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Side Situation - Domestic: Multiple domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity transfer and new construction projects may increase domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July. The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,650 yuan/ton [4][58] - Import: Multiple overseas factors may increase domestic electrolytic aluminum imports in July [4][61] Investment Strategy - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, due to the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy and the suppression of downstream demand in the traditional consumption off - season, the Shanghai aluminum price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [5] Basis and Month - Spread - The Shanghai aluminum basis and month - spread are positive and within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors wait and see [37] - The LME aluminum (0 - 3) month - spread is positive and at a relatively high level, and the (3 - 15) month - spread is negative. It is recommended that investors wait and see for LME aluminum month - spread arbitrage opportunities [40] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum has increased compared with last week. The inventory in the bonded area has decreased, and the inventory in LME and COMEX has changed differently [42][44] Aluminum Alloys Supply - Side Situation - Scrap aluminum: The production and import of Chinese scrap aluminum in July may increase due to the positive and rising daily spread between refined and scrap aluminum [64][66] - Primary aluminum alloy: The daily full production cost of Chinese primary aluminum alloy is 20,550 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate remains flat compared with last week [69] - Recycled aluminum alloy: The daily full production cost of Chinese recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 19,900 yuan/ton with negative profit, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased compared with last week [77] Investment Strategy - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, the production of domestic recycled aluminum alloy is still in the red. Due to the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy, the price of cast aluminum alloy may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19,800 - 19,900 and the pressure level around 20,200 - 20,300 [7] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloys has increased compared with last week. The raw material and finished - product inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has decreased [87][90] Downstream Processing Enterprises - The weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese aluminum downstream leading processing enterprises has decreased compared with last week due to the intersection of the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season [93][95]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic black commodities have peaked and declined. With the approaching effective date of new US tariffs, market sentiment cooled significantly during the night session on Friday. If there are no unexpected statements from the domestic Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate meeting this week, market sentiment is expected to be under pressure. Domestically, the relatively low aluminum ingot inventory supports aluminum prices. However, due to the off - season for downstream demand and weakening export demand, the rebound of aluminum prices will be limited, and overall prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is estimated to be 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 US dollars/ton [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [13]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 180,000 tons to 5.1 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot price was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.0 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss in domestic aluminum spot imports has widened [13]. - **Demand**: According to Aizec Consulting's research, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products continued to decline, and the operating conditions of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, bars, profiles, and alloys all weakened. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season, and most buyers in the aluminum spot market are cautious and waiting [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 1.22% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), while LME Aluminum closed down 0.27% at 2,631 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Term Spread**: The monthly spread continued to decline [29]. - **Spot Basis**: The aluminum ingot basis in major domestic regions weakened [32]. - **Regional Premium/Discount Spread**: The spot prices in East and South China were relatively strong [37]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M had a slight premium [40]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit decreased to 3,729 yuan/ton, but the absolute level remained high [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to SMM data, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons [49]. - **Aluminum Bar Inventory**: The aluminum bar inventory was 146,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum bars and ingots increased week - on - week [52]. - **LME Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons due to warehousing [55]. 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: No specific price change details were provided in the text. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [64]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [69]. 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In June, China's actual operating alumina capacity increased by 3.1%, the production rate was 79.7%, and the output increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with overall sufficient supply [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [77]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated and rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. In June, the aluminum water ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points and continued to rise slightly. It is expected to decline in July [80]. 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum bars, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods declined; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but recently showed weakness [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased compared to the actual production in the same period last year, indicating a weakening of overall home - appliance - related demand. Current real - estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and photovoltaic - related demand also faced pressure [99]. 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss in aluminum ingot spot imports has widened [102]. - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina: The raw - material supply is sufficient, with the import volume of bauxite in China increasing and port inventories accumulating. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term and may converge in the long - term due to the "anti - involution" policy. The demand from electrolytic aluminum is stable as its production capacity approaches the upper limit. Overall, the alumina industry is expected to improve [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The supply is relatively stable as the production capacity is close to the upper limit, but the demand is weak due to the off - season. However, long - term consumption expectations are positive, and industrial inventories are slightly accumulating [6]. - Cast aluminum: The supply and demand are both weak. The supply is affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand is weak due to the off - season, resulting in inventory accumulation and pressure on prices [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) showed a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, rising 1.22% to 20,760 yuan/ton. Alumina also trended stronger, rising 9.42% to 3,428 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum rose 1.31% to 20,135 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina is in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand; electrolytic aluminum has stable supply, weak short - term demand, and positive long - term consumption expectations; cast aluminum has weak supply and demand and accumulating inventory [6][8]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Trade the main contract of SHFE Aluminum lightly with an oscillatory strategy, and go short - term long on the main contract of alumina at low prices [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price Changes**: As of July 25, 2025, SHFE Aluminum closed at 20,775 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from July 18; LME Aluminum closed at 2,646 dollars/ton on July 24, up 2.2% from July 18. Alumina futures rose 9.47% to 3,446 yuan/ton, and cast aluminum futures rose 1.31% to 20,135 yuan/ton [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread Changes**: The SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.86 on July 25, up 0.01 from July 18. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 2,125 yuan/ton on July 25, up 340 yuan/ton from July 18, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 58,490 yuan/ton, up 590 yuan/ton [12][23]. - **Spot Price Changes**: On July 25, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang rose, with increases of 1.74%, 1.89%, and 1.89% respectively. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose 0.5%. The A00 aluminum ingot spot price rose 0.19% to 20,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 10 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week [27][28][31]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 4.89%, SHFE inventory increased by 5.45%, and domestic social inventory increased by 7.19%. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 17.84% on July 25, and LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 3.23% on July 24 [36]. - **Raw Material Supply**: In June 2025, the import of bauxite increased by 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year; from January to June, the import increased by 33.61% year - on - year. The nine - port inventory of bauxite increased by 188 tons [39]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, the production of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and various aluminum products increased year - on - year. The import and export of some products also changed, such as an increase in the import of electrolytic aluminum and a decrease in the export of some aluminum products [48][51][55]. - **Downstream Markets**: The real estate market declined slightly in June 2025, while infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [68][71]. 4. Options Market Analysis - **Strategy Recommendation**: Considering the expected slight oscillatory trend of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal off - season is obvious with falling downstream开工率 and production, and potential inventory accumulation. Long - term, supply limitation and stable consumption growth are the main logic, and the long - term outlook remains optimistic despite short - term price fluctuations [3]. - Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Spot prices are short - term strong, but long - term surplus is expected. Cost of bauxite is under pressure, and there are still factors in the warehouse receipt game [4][5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum prices. There is support from the cost side, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Key Data Aluminum - Spot: On July 24, 2025, Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20520 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20710 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On July 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20780 yuan/ton, closed at 20760 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or - 0.41% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 145349 lots and a position of 309943 lots [1]. - Inventory: As of July 24, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 510,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 448,100 tons, up 3300 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina - Spot: On July 24, 2025, SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Guangxi were 3240 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures: On July 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3361 yuan/ton, closed at 3427 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 786570 lots and a position of 189037 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: On July 23, 2025, Baotai's purchase prices of civil and mechanical primary aluminum were 15300 yuan/ton and 15500 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; ADC12 Baotai's quote was 19700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, up 6000 tons week - on - week; the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons, down 300 tons week - on - week; the total inventory was 106,800 tons, up 5700 tons week - on - week [2]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The seasonal off - season is evident, with falling downstream开工率, production, and processing fees facing losses. Social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, but the long - term logic is supply limitation and stable consumption growth. Short - term price increase lacks fundamental support, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [3]. Alumina - Supply is in a slight surplus, with accelerating inventory accumulation. Spot prices are short - term strong. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and there are still factors in the warehouse receipt game. Long - term surplus is expected [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and primary aluminum is tight, and there is support from the cost side. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [7]. - Arbitrage: Long - short arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the aluminum industry, highlighting the potential for high prices due to stable demand and controlled supply [4][8]. Core Insights - Aluminum is the most abundant metal on Earth, with Guinea holding the largest bauxite reserves at approximately 7.4 billion tons, accounting for 25.52% of global reserves [4][21]. - The global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to reach 72 million tons in 2024, with China maintaining a dominant position at 43 million tons, representing 60% of the total [4][67]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the green aluminum industry, particularly in regions like Yunnan, which benefits from abundant hydropower resources [5][70]. Summary by Sections Global Bauxite Resource Status - Bauxite is primarily found in Guinea, Australia, and other countries, with China having a relatively low reserve of 2.34% [21]. - In 2024, global bauxite production is expected to be 45 million tons, with Guinea contributing 13 million tons, or 28.89% [27]. Global Bauxite Production - The top three producers of bauxite in 2024 are Guinea (13 million tons), Australia (10 million tons), and China (9.3 million tons) [27][28]. - China imports significant amounts of bauxite from Guinea and Australia, with imports of 110.58 million tons and 39.89 million tons, respectively [27]. Global Alumina Production - The global alumina production is projected to be 142 million tons in 2024, with China producing 84 million tons, accounting for 60% of the total [37]. - China's alumina capacity is expanding rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of 6.86% [37]. Global Electrolytic Aluminum Production - The report indicates that the global electrolytic aluminum production will reach 72 million tons in 2024, with China leading at 43 million tons [67]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow due to the increasing use in renewable energy sectors [89]. Yunnan's Clean Energy Advantage - Yunnan province has a significant advantage in clean energy, with hydropower accounting for 71.22% of its total electricity generation in 2024 [70]. - The province is positioned to support high-energy-consuming industries like electrolytic aluminum production [70]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies Yunnan's green aluminum industry as having substantial growth opportunities due to its resource advantages and the EU's carbon tax policy [5][8]. - Companies like Yun Aluminum are highlighted as leaders in the green aluminum sector, with a comprehensive production capacity and a focus on sustainable practices [79].

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Alumina: Neutral [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Cautiously Bullish [7] Core Views - The seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is obvious. The downstream start - up rate has declined, and social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. In the long run, supply is limited and consumption has stable growth. The current rise in aluminum prices lacks fundamental support, but the long - term outlook remains optimistic [3] - The alumina supply is in a slight surplus. The total inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the spot market is strong in the short term. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the game over warehouse receipts continues. The long - term surplus expectation remains [5] - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season. The price follows the aluminum price, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Summary by Category Aluminum - **Price Data**: On July 22, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20,900 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton (0.75%) [1] - **Inventory Data**: As of July 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 498,000 tons. As of July 22, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 438,450 tons, up 4,025 tons from the previous day [1] - **Market Analysis**: The seasonal off - peak season is obvious, downstream start - up rate has declined, and processing fees face losses. Social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, and long - term supply is limited while consumption has stable growth [3] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bullish for unilateral trading and conduct Shanghai Aluminum positive arbitrage [7] Alumina - **Price Data**: On July 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,225 yuan/ton, Shandong was 3,210 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 3,513 yuan/ton, up 201 yuan/ton (6.07%) [2] - **Market Analysis**: The supply is in a slight surplus, total inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the spot market is strong in the short term. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the game over warehouse receipts continues [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral for unilateral trading [7] Aluminum Alloy - **Price Data**: On July 19, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory Data**: The aluminum alloy social inventory was 37,200 tons, up 5,800 tons week - on - week. The factory inventory was 63,900 tons, down 7,000 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory was 101,100 tons, down 1,200 tons week - on - week [2] - **Market Analysis**: It is in the consumption off - peak season, the price follows the aluminum price, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bullish for unilateral trading, and conduct long AD11 and short AL11 arbitrage [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of multiple commodities, offering insights into their price trends, fundamental data, and relevant market news. It suggests that different commodities are influenced by various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and industry - specific events. For example, some commodities like gold, silver, and aluminum are expected to show upward trends, while others like tin are predicted to experience price weakness. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.70, up 0.60%, and the overnight closing price was 785.76, up 0.76%. [2][7][8] - Silver is predicted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪银2510 was 9271, down 0.02%, and the overnight closing price was 9420.00, up 1.85%. [2][7][8] Base Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,770, up 1.70%. [2][11] - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22925, up 2.83%. [2][14] - Lead: The expected supply - demand contradiction supports the price, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16960, up 0.83%. [2][17] - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 267,250, up 1.02%. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will move upward in a volatile manner. Alumina shows strong short - term sentiment, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and casting aluminum alloy is 0. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20840. [2][23] - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel is 0. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 122,550, and the closing price of stainless steel主力 was 12,905. [2][26] Energy - Related Commodities - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of the futures was 809.0, up 3.06%. [2][38] - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to oscillate strongly. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1. The closing price of JM2509 was 1006, up 8.64%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1803, up 5.60%. [2][49][50] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, it will stabilize in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 from the previous settlement price. [2][53] Chemical Commodities - Carbonate lithium: Potential supply reduction combined with strong macro - sentiment may lead to a strong short - term trend. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,280, up 1,320. [2][31] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the futures price is resilient. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,260, up 565. [2][35] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the transaction situation at the component end. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660, up 1,810. [2][35] Building Materials and Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,224, up 68, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,394, up 73. [2][41] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of硅铁2509 was 5668, up 160, and the closing price of锰硅2509 was 5914, up 110. [2][45] Others - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].