报告类型 股指日评 日期 2026 年 3 月 11 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 1.1 行情回顾： 3 月 10 日，万得全 A 缩量上涨，高开后震荡运行，午后继续走高，收涨 1.58%， 全市超 4500 支个股上涨，市场情绪明显提振；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中 证 1000 收盘分别上涨 1.28%、0.64%、1.58%、1.78%。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、 IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.41%、0.64%、1.53%、1.50%（按收盘价计算）。 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under pressure as the economy in Q1 may continue to perform well, which dampens market expectations of monetary easing. Also, Trump's visit to China at the end of March may boost market risk appetite [11]. - The short - term situation between the US and Iran is unclear, which boosts risk - aversion demand. However, the sharp rise in oil prices has led to an increase in inflation expectations, and the significant fluctuations in the financial market have also brought liquidity shocks, resulting in large short - term disturbances. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Due to the easing signs in the Middle East situation, the alleviation of financial market liquidity pressure, and the decline in oil prices to ease inflation concerns, Treasury bond futures recovered in the morning. However, they weakened again around noon due to the better - than - expected foreign trade data from January to February and improved in the afternoon [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds mostly declined slightly. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 dropped by 0.35bp to 1.8075% as of 16:30 [9]. - **Funding Market**: The inter - bank funding market was loose. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open market was 144.8 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated around 1.32%, the 7 - day funding rate fluctuated around 1.44%, and the medium - to - long - term funding was stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.56% - 1.58% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - **Foreign Trade**: In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate returning to double - digits at 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%; and the trade surplus was 1.50349 trillion yuan. The trade value between China and ASEAN was 1.24 trillion yuan, a 20.3% increase; the trade value with the EU was 998.94 billion yuan, a 19.9% increase; and the trade value with the US was 609.71 billion yuan, a 16.9% decrease [13]. - **Real Estate**: 38 provincial and municipal real estate brokerage (intermediary) industry associations jointly issued an initiative to maintain a clear online space in the real estate field, with three core requirements: "show identity and take responsibility", "observe the bottom line and resist speculation", and "strengthen cooperation and focus on governance" [14]. - **Government Debt**: In 2026, China plans to issue 1.189 trillion yuan in new government debt. Among them, the central government will issue 669 billion yuan in Treasury bonds, accounting for about 56.3% of the total new government debt this year; local governments will issue 520 billion yuan in local government bonds, accounting for about 43.7%. Since 2023, the proportion of new central government debt has been significantly increasing [14]. - **CPI and PPI**: China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, with an expected increase of 0.9% and a previous increase of 0.2%. The average CPI from January to February increased by 0.8% year - on - year. China's PPI in February decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with an expected decrease of 1.2% and a previous decrease of 1.4% [15]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Information on the trading data of Treasury bond futures on March 10, including contract details such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and position change [6]. - **Monetary Market**: There are various data charts related to the monetary market, including the term structure and trend of SHIBOR, and the changes in inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rates [31][35]. - **Derivatives Market**: There are data charts related to the derivatives market, such as the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, as it affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. The Fed will react when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it's advisable to manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1] - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active efforts in the first half of the year to support the economic start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event impacts. Non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to the development of geopolitical events and the verification of domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures Market**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower. Shipping futures led the decline, with the Container Shipping Index (European Line) down 13.92%. All energy products fell, with crude oil down 10.76%. Most chemical products declined, with ethylene glycol down 5.26%. Most black - series products dropped, with coke down 4.49%. All non - metallic building materials decreased, with glass down 4.44%. All oilseeds and oils declined, with soybean oil down 3.14%. All agricultural and sideline products fell, with logs down 2.28%. Most new - energy materials declined, with industrial silicon down 1.88%. Precious metals led the gains, with Shanghai silver up 7.11%. Most base metals rose, with Shanghai tin up 2.24% [1] - **Financial Market**: On March 10, 2026, stock index futures generally rose, with CSI 300 futures up 1.35%, SSE 50 futures up 0.63%, CSI 500 futures up 1.46%, and CSI 1000 futures up 1.53%. Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with 2 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures unchanged, 10 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.01%, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%. The US dollar index was down 0.24% [7] - **Industry Index**: On March 10, 2026, among the CITIC industry indices, industries such as national defense and military industry, machinery, and electronics rose, while industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals and coal declined [8][9] - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 9, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was down 6.4%, ICE Brent crude oil was down 3.13%, COMEX gold was down 0.19%, and COMEX silver was up 3.6% [10][11] - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On March 10, 2026, shipping futures such as the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined significantly, precious metals such as gold and silver rose, and most energy - chemical products such as crude oil and methanol fell [12][13][14] 3.2 Asset Views by Sector - **Financial**: Stock index futures and options are affected by risk factors and are in a state of shock. The market is waiting and observing. The focus is on incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks. Treasury bond futures are affected by how fiscal policy will be implemented this year and are in a state of shock. Gold and silver are affected by rising inflation expectations suppressing interest - rate cut expectations and are in a state of shock. The focus is on US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the geopolitical situation [4] - **Shipping**: The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is affected by geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding, and is in a state of weak shock. The focus is on the progress of geopolitical events, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the situation in the Middle East, and the opening of the spot market [4] - **Black Building Materials**: The prices of black - building materials such as steel, iron ore, and coke are affected by factors such as cost support, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of shock [4] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The prices of non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are affected by factors such as oil price fluctuations, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of wide - range shock [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Energy - chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of high - volatility shock [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock are affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of shock [4][5]

"护航"乌龙消息触发原油市场剧烈震荡，WTI 原油期货盘中跌幅近 20%，创 2022 年以来最大日跌幅，凸显伊朗局势紧张、美国政策摇摆等地缘因素对短期情绪的 冲击。中国经济展现强大韧性，2 月以美元计价出口同比大增 39.6%，进口增长 13.8%，1-2 月原油进口创同期新高，但铜、钢材进口下滑而稀土出口激增 23%， 反映内部经济结构正主动调整升级。十四届全国人大四次会议审查通过"十五五" 规划纲要草案，确认"十四五"目标任务胜利完成，并将"发展新质生产力"置 于建议首位，为中国式现代化建设锚定清晰路径，提供穿越波动的长期确定性。 美国农业部 3 月报告显示大豆产量预期维持稳定，期末库存略高于市场预期。整 体而言，市场正面临短期情绪扰动、中期数据分化和长期政策定力之间的交织与 权衡。 重点品种：原油、黄金、股指 原油：SC 夜盘下跌 12.34%。美国总统特朗普在佛罗里达州迈阿密市举行的一场 新闻发布会上称，美国对伊朗的军事行动会"很快"结束，但"不会"在本周结 束。特朗普称，若伊朗影响到全球原油供应，将对其予以更猛烈打击；特朗普还 表示，若时机成熟，美国海军将在霍尔木兹海峡护航。但是，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector continues to experience high volatility. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, have a significant impact on the oil and chemical markets. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, and investors are advised to adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - Crude oil and oil products' volatility has increased, which is conducive to the repair of chemical valuations. The decline of chemical futures on the night of March 10 was significantly less than that of crude oil futures. The supply reduction in the chemical industry chain caused by the Middle East situation is expected to gradually appear in about a month [2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical sector is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with each product showing different trends and influencing factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to sharp price fluctuations. The situation in the US - Iran conflict and the passage prospects of the Strait of Hormuz are still in a state of expected swing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and strong, waiting for the situation to become clearer [6]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price has fallen from a high level. The market is focused on geopolitical developments. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly, and the inventory is accumulating. The long - term valuation is expected to decline, and it is expected to be volatile [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are still the core. The price is volatile and likely to rise. Once the US and Iran reach an agreement, it may have a significant negative impact. In the long - term, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced, which is a long - term negative factor [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, its current valuation is low, and it is expected to be volatile [9]. - **PX**: The price has significantly declined due to cost factors, but the supply is gradually being affected by the Strait blockade. In the short - term, it is in a tight pattern, and the price is expected to be volatile. The mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [11]. - **PTA**: It follows the wide - range fluctuations of upstream costs. The basis remains relatively stable, and it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [12]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply side may see production cuts by some enterprises, and the downstream industry's profit has improved [14]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply side may have more production cuts and maintenance, and the export has increased. It may return to the de - stocking stage in March [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The high - level increase is blocked. It follows the cost and market sentiment to fluctuate. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a wide - range consolidation [18]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market is re - positioning, waiting for the downstream market to digest. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the processing fee has certain support [19]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The price follows the cost to decline, and the trading atmosphere has improved. The absolute price follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the support for the processing fee has increased [20]. - **Methanol**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium [23]. - **Urea**: After the market sentiment fades, it oscillates and consolidates. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand has both supporting and weakening factors [24]. - **LLDPE**: The price has fallen. It is affected by the decline in oil prices and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [26]. - **PP**: The price has declined. It is affected by oil prices and geopolitical factors. The refinery's profit has different performances, and it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [27]. - **PL**: The price has adjusted. The market has returned to rationality, and the short - term profit of the powder material has been compressed. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [28]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and it should be treated with caution. The supply may be reduced, the export has improved, and it is expected to be volatile [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has difficulty rising, and it is temporarily oscillating. Geopolitical factors may lead to a reduction in chlorine - alkali supply, and the export has improved [31]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 4.59 with a change of - 0.65 dollars/barrel, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 700 with a change of - 92 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 yuan/ton with a change of - 121 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 78750 tons [34]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different changes in inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 285 with a change of - 91 yuan/ton [35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemical products, but specific data summaries are not provided in the text.

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The US-Iran geopolitical risk eases, leading to the rebound of the stock index, with the communication sector leading the rise and the petrochemical sector leading the fall. The market turnover is 2.42 trillion yuan. From March onwards, as listed companies gradually disclose their annual and first - quarter reports, the market will shift from being "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven", entering the "selecting alpha" stage. Stocks without performance support may remain weak, while policy - beneficiary and performance - improving sectors may have sustainable opportunities. In the long run, the stock index trend will return to the domestic fundamentals and policies, and is expected to resume an upward trend in shock after the geopolitical risk eases. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different periods (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) are 4664.00, 4646.40, 4601.00, and 4533.00 respectively, with increases of 60.80, 61.40, 63.40, and 66.40. The trading volumes are 57102.00, 4731.00, 22790.00, and 9654.00, and the open interest changes are - 17696.00, 406.00, - 985.00, and 129.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads between next - month and current - month contracts change from - 19.00 to - 17.60. [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for different periods are 2981.40, 2980.40, 2973.00, and 2935.40 respectively, with increases of 17.80, 18.60, 20.00, and 22.40. The trading volumes are 25641.00, 2992.00, 10631.00, and 3144.00, and the open interest changes are - 5526.00, 601.00, 187.00, and - 541.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads between next - month and current - month contracts change from - 4.40 to - 1.00. [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for different periods are 8393.60, 8355.00, 8239.00, and 8083.20 respectively, with increases of 129.60, 142.60, 159.60, and 176.60. The trading volumes are 83464.00, 8674.00, 46281.00, and 16828.00, and the open interest changes are - 15564.00, 1771.00, 551.00, and 549.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads between next - month and current - month contracts change from - 47.00 to - 38.60. [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for different periods are 8313.60, 8259.60, 8102.60, and 7905.60 respectively, with increases of 130.00, 136.40, 141.00, and 147.80. The trading volumes are 108844.00, 10221.00, 51791.00, and 19827.00, and the open interest changes are - 28389.00, 1061.00, - 3416.00, and - 261.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads between next - month and current - month contracts change from - 60.80 to - 54.00. [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 4674.76, 2981.84, 8410.30, and 8350.09 respectively, with increases of 1.28%, 0.64%, 1.58%, and 1.78%. The trading volumes (in billion lots) are 263.90, 54.23, 239.94, and 311.69, and the total trading amounts (in billion yuan) are 5576.08, 1217.62, 4650.82, and 5335.11 respectively. [1] - **Industry Indexes**: The energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate and finance, information technology, telecommunications services, and public utilities sectors have changes of - 4.99%, 0.35%, 1.92%, 1.22%, 0.04%, 2.04%, 0.56%, 2.86%, 3.30%, and - 0.08% respectively. [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The basis between IF contracts for different periods and the CSI 300 changes. For example, the basis of the current - month IF contract and the CSI 300 changes from - 16.26 to - 10.76. [1] - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The basis between IH contracts for different periods and the SSE 50 changes. For example, the basis of the current - month IH contract and the SSE 50 changes from - 0.59 to - 0.44. [1] - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The basis between IC contracts for different periods and the CSI 500 changes. For example, the basis of the current - month IC contract and the CSI 500 changes from - 12.48 to - 16.70. [1] - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The basis between IM contracts for different periods and the CSI 1000 changes. For example, the basis of the current - month IM contract and the CSI 1000 changes from - 12.87 to - 36.49. [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index are 4123.14, 14354.07, 8772.63, and 3306.14 respectively, with increases of 0.65%, 2.04%, 1.74%, and 3.04%. [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index are 25959.90, 54248.39, 6781.48, and 23968.63 respectively, with increases of 2.17%, 2.88%, - 0.21%, and 2.39%. [1] 3.5 Macro Information - **Geopolitical Situation**: US President Trump said that the war with Iran would end "soon" but not this week. If Iran blocks oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will launch a much more violent attack. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the action against Iran was "not over". Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Garib Abadi said Iran's priority was "resolute defense". [2] - **Oil Market**: International oil prices fluctuated sharply on March 10, with the US oil main contract dropping more than 19% at one point. Trump said he was willing to talk with Iran, exempt some oil - related sanctions, and send the navy to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but there were disputes over whether the escort had been carried out. [2] - **Shipping Industry**: The Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission held talks with the relevant responsible persons of Maersk Group and Mediterranean Shipping Company. [2] - **AI Security**: Some financial institutions received risk warnings about strictly controlling the deployment of the OpenClaw external platform. Multiple regions introduced special support policies for "AI lobster - farming". [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Industrial Data**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action, carrying out pilot projects on building high - quality industry datasets for AI empowerment and promoting the implementation of scenarios such as industry large - model applications and industrial agent R & D. [2] - **Railway Transportation**: China Railway Corporation announced that starting from March 12, international passenger trains will run between Beijing, Dandong in China and Pyongyang in North Korea, and tickets are on sale offline. [2] - **Internet Platform**: Xiaohongshu prohibited the use of AI hosting technology for content creation and false interaction, and will punish violators. [2] - **Mobile Phone Industry**: With the continuous rise of storage prices, a new wave of mobile phone price increases is coming. OPPO will adjust the prices of some products from March 16, and other brands are also planning price increases. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Precious metals have slightly rebounded. The statement from US President Trump that the war between the US and Iran may end soon led to a significant drop in oil prices, a cooling of inflation expectations, and a recovery in risk appetite, alleviating short - term suppression factors for precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. Concerns about the US fiscal sustainability are intensifying, and with the reconstruction of the global political and economic order, the diversification of central bank reserve assets, and the continuous progress of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium, with their industrial and financial attributes in resonance, follow the overall sector trend but have relatively larger fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For Shanghai Gold 2606, the previous day's closing price was 1143.54, yesterday's closing price was 1153.16, with a rise of 9.62 and a rise rate of 0.84%. For Shanghai Gold 2604, the previous day's closing price was 1140.00, yesterday's closing price was 1150.00, with a rise of 10.00 and a rise rate of 0.88%. For Shanghai Silver 2606, the previous day's closing price was 21547, yesterday's closing price was 22758, with a rise of 1211 and a rise rate of 5.62%. For Shanghai Silver 2604, the previous day's closing price was 21745, yesterday's closing price was 22912, with a rise of 1167 and a rise rate of 5.37% [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2606 was 123330, and the trading volume was 89822. The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2604 was 111758, and the trading volume was 203619. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2606 was 200036, and the trading volume was 471040. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2604 was 104781, and the trading volume was 154464 [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Gold 2606 was - 8.14, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 was - 4.98. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Silver 2606 was - 468, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 622 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1139.96, yesterday's closing price was 1145.02, with a rise of 5.06 and a rise rate of 0.44%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold was 5139.57, yesterday's closing price was 5190.10, with a rise of 50.53 and a rise rate of 0.98%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 21290, yesterday's closing price was 22290, with a rise of 1000 and a rise rate of 4.70%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver was 86.98, yesterday's closing price was 88.34, with a rise of 1.36 and a rise rate of 1.57% [2] - **Price Differences**: The difference between Shanghai Gold 2606 and Shanghai Gold 2604 was 3.16 (previous value: 3.54). The difference between Shanghai Silver 2606 and Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 154.00 (previous value: - 198.00). The gold - to - silver ratio (spot) was 51.37 (previous value: 53.54). The ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold was 1.00 (previous value: 0.99). The ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver was 1.14 (previous value: 1.13) [2] 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 104,934 kg. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 5808 kg to 259,178 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 192906 ounces to 32,720,709 ounces. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 977529 ounces to 345,310,443 ounces [2] 3.4 Related Derivatives - **Positions and Changes**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 3 tons to 1,074 tons. The position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 15,655 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold increased by 968 to 160,145. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 1078 to 23,338 [2] 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **IEA Proposal**: The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed to release its largest - ever oil reserve to lower the soaring oil prices due to the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. The proposed release amount would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil released by IEA member countries in two installments during the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The proposal was discussed at an emergency meeting of energy officials from 32 IEA member countries on Tuesday, and a decision is expected on Wednesday [3] - **ECB Statement**: European Central Bank President Lagarde said that due to high uncertainty, she could not state how interest rates would be adjusted [3] - **Trump's Statements**: US President Trump demanded that Iran immediately remove any mines in the Strait of Hormuz and warned of military consequences if not. He also said that the war with Iran might end soon. The Trump administration asked Israel to stop further airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure, to avoid pushing up global oil prices and triggering large - scale retaliation from Iran [3] - **Navy Escort Issue**: There were inconsistent statements about US Navy escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Secretary Wright first announced and then deleted a message about a successful escort. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said that any US fleet action would be blocked [3]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The US President Trump stated that the war against Iran would "soon" end but "not" this week. If Iran takes any action to block oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, the US will launch a "20 - fold more severe strike" against it. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the action against Iran "has not ended". Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Garib Abadi said that Iran's current priority is only "resolute defense" and "the end of the war is in Iran's hands" [2] - In the first two months of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1%. China's imports and exports to the US in the first two months were 609.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.9%, while those to ASEAN and the EU both increased by about 20% [2] - The exchanges took action again to prevent market risks. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued notices to adjust the price limit ranges and trading margin ratios of relevant contracts for crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and butadiene rubber futures [2] - From March 2nd to March 8th, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.3179 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 396,000 tons. The inventory scale rebounded slightly, and the current inventory is at the second - highest level since the beginning of the year [2] - According to the China Cotton Information Network, based on the spring sowing intention survey, the cotton - planting policy direction in Xinjiang is clear, but implementation measures vary by region. The cotton - planting area for the new year will be slightly reduced month - on - month. The total output calculated based on the three - year average yield per unit area will slightly decrease. The national total output will decrease by 40,000 tons to 7.24 million tons. The annual total supply will decrease by 9 tons to 1,480 tons. The total demand will increase by 70,000 tons to 885,000 tons. The ending inventory for this year will decrease by 160,000 tons to 595,000 tons [3] 2. Key Focus - The key focus includes urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, crude oil, and plastic [4] 3. Night - session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity sectors shows that the non - metallic building materials sector rose by 2.24%, the precious metals sector by 30.75%, the oilseeds and oils sector by 7.39%, the soft commodities sector by 2.53%, the non - ferrous metals sector by 24.61%, the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector by 8.80%, the energy sector by 7.16%, the chemical sector by 12.84%, the grain sector by 1.04%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector by 2.64% [4] 4. Category Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300 | 0.65, 0.64, 1.28 | - 0.95, - 1.89, - 0.76 | 3.89, - 1.63, 0.97 | | | CSI 500 | 1.58 | - 2.87 | 12.65 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.21 | - 1.42 | - 0.94 | | | Hang Seng Index | 2.17 | - 2.52 | 1.29 | | | German DAX | 2.39 | - 5.20 | - 2.13 | | | Nikkei 225 | 2.88 | - 7.82 | 7.77 | | | FTSE 100 | 1.59 | - 4.57 | 4.84 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.00 | - 0.08 | 0.41 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | 0.20 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 2.48 | 11.31 | 16.48 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.00 | 27.18 | 48.70 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.98 | - 1.67 | 20.19 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 2.84 | 3.38 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.73 | - 3.31 | 17.43 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.23 | 1.33 | 0.69 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 28.40 | 70.57 | [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 11, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Trump hinted that the war with Iran would end soon, leading to a rapid recovery in capital risk appetite. The precious metals market rebounded slightly, and most of the non - ferrous sectors closed higher. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 24,415 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.37%, with reduced volume and positions. The LME inventory increased by 4,150 tons to 95,950 tons on the 10th. The domestic TC average price of SMM Zn50 increased by 50 to 1,550 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate index decreased by 8.37 to 15.38 US dollars/ton. The inventory at major ports decreased by 31,000 physical tons. The high income from by - products such as sulfuric acid continued to subsidize smelting profits, and the refined zinc output in March would increase month - on - month. On the demand side, the resumption rhythm of downstream industries was differentiated, and the start - up rate gradually increased but had not returned to the pre - holiday level. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 0.59 million tons to 26.22 million tons on Monday. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, positions, and position changes of Shanghai zinc contracts 2603, 2604, and 2605 are presented. For example, the main contract 2604 opened at 24,505 yuan/ton, closed at 24,415 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.37%, with a position of 74,747 hands, a decrease of 5,934 hands [7] - **Inventory and Price Index**: On March 10, the LME inventory increased by 4,150 tons to 95,950 tons. The domestic TC average price of SMM Zn50 increased by 50 to 1,550 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate index decreased by 8.37 to 15.38 US dollars/ton. The inventory at major ports decreased by 31,000 physical tons [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The high income from by - products such as sulfuric acid continued to subsidize smelting profits. With the resumption of smelters and the increase in natural days, the refined zinc output in March would increase month - on - month. On the demand side, the resumption rhythm of downstream industries was differentiated, and the start - up rate gradually increased but had not returned to the pre - holiday level. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 0.59 million tons to 26.22 million tons on Monday [7] 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - **Spot Price**: On March 10, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,220 - 24,390 yuan/ton, and the transaction prices in different regions (Ningbo, Tianjin, Guangdong) and their corresponding contract quotes and price differentials are detailed [10] - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [11][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report assesses the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of several agricultural commodity futures. For short - term, all three varieties (soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil) are considered "strong"; for medium - term, all are "oscillating"; and for intraday, all are "oscillating strongly". The overall view is that the prices of these futures will show an oscillating and relatively strong trend in the short term [5][6][7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is oscillating strongly. The reference view is also oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The adjustment of key data of US and global soybeans in the USDA's March supply - demand report was minimal, and the market focused on the spring planting intention of US corn and soybeans, as well as other supply - demand fundamental factors. The uncertainty of soybean arrivals in the domestic market affects the oil mills' operation plans and soybean meal supply. The market focus has shifted from the expected South American bumper harvest to the supply rhythm, and negative logistics news may cause short - term shortage expectations and price surges [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is oscillating strongly. The reference view is also oscillating strongly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: After the sharp drop in crude oil, international vegetable oil prices generally declined, and the domestic oil and fat sector also fell. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board's monthly report showed that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of February decreased by 3.9% to 2.7 million tons, production decreased by 18.6% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.5% to 1.13 million tons. The short - term improvement in exports may support the market, making palm oil relatively resistant to decline. After the market sentiment is released, the palm oil futures price may return to the oscillating range and show an oscillating and relatively strong trend in the short term [7]. Soybean Oil - **Price Trend**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is oscillating strongly. The reference view is also oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: The influencing factors include energy attributes, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, imported soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].