国债期货日报 2026/3/10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.305 | 0% T主力成交量 | 95038 | -27851↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.975 | 0% TF主力成交量 | 69477 | -10781↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.460 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | 28465 | -11469↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.490 | 0.04% TL主力成交量 | 99947 | -48072↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2606-2603价差 | 0.11 | -0.01↓ T06-TL06价差 | -3.18 | 0.02↑ | | | T2606-2603价差 | -0.03 | +0.01↑ TF06-T06价差 | -2.33 | 0.00↑ | | | TF2606-2603价差 | 0.05 | +0.03↑ TS06-T06价差 | -5.85 | 0.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading sentiment in the precious metals market significantly recovered. The Shanghai Gold 2606 contract closed up 0.80% at 1,150 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2606 contract closed up 7.11% at 22,758 yuan/kilogram. The external gold - silver ratio dropped sharply [2]. - After Trump said the Iran war was "basically over", the market risk premium increased, the crude oil price dropped sharply, the US dollar index declined under pressure, and some funds flowed back to the precious metals market [2]. - The US February non - farm payroll data was much worse than expected, the unemployment rate rose, and the probability of a mid - year interest rate cut in the interest rate futures market rose above 50%, which provided marginal support for the gold price [2]. - The inflation risk caused by the Iran conflict makes it difficult for the Fed to maintain a dovish stance. The future trend of precious metals has high uncertainty [2]. - In the short term, precious metals are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long term, the bullish logic remains intact, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold main contract closing price: 1,150 yuan/gram, up 10 yuan; Shanghai Silver main contract closing price: 22,758 yuan/kilogram, up 1,211 yuan [2]. - Shanghai Gold main contract open interest: 111,758 lots, up 891 lots; Shanghai Silver main contract open interest: 3,294 lots, down 32 lots [2]. - Shanghai Gold main contract trading volume: 203,619 lots, down 108,781 lots; Shanghai Silver main contract trading volume: 471,037 lots, down 148,608 lots [2]. - Shanghai Gold warehouse receipt quantity: 104,934 kilograms, unchanged; Shanghai Silver warehouse receipt quantity: 259,178 kilograms, up 5,808 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot price: 1,144.78 yuan/gram, up 4.40 yuan; Huatong No.1 silver spot price: 22,245 yuan/kilogram, up 1,790 yuan [2]. - Shanghai Gold main contract basis: - 5.22 yuan/gram, down 5.60 yuan; Shanghai Silver main contract basis: - 513 yuan/kilogram, up 579 yuan [2]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings: 1,070.71 tons, down 2.61 tons; SLV silver ETF holdings: 15,710.91 tons, down 50.71 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - Gold CFTC non - commercial net long positions: 160,145 contracts, up 968 contracts; Silver CFTC non - commercial net long positions: 23,338 contracts, up 1,078 contracts [2]. - Total gold supply (quarterly): 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; Total silver supply (annually): 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - Total gold demand (quarterly): 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; Total silver demand (annually): 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - US dollar index: 98.71, down 0.24; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 1.78%, down 0.02% [2]. - VIX volatility index: 25.50, down 3.99; CBOE gold volatility index: 33.52, down 0.74 [2]. - S&P 500/gold price ratio: 1.34, up 0.02; Gold - silver ratio: 60.95, down 1.32 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US - Iran war might end soon, and it had "basically ended" [2]. - G7 finance ministers discussed not releasing strategic oil reserves for now to deal with rising oil prices [2]. - Putin and Trump talked about the Middle East situation related to Iran and the negotiation process in Ukraine [2]. - European interest rate trading is being reshaped by rising energy prices. The interest rate swap market prices in two 25 - basis - point rate hikes by the ECB this year, and the UK market prices in a 15 - basis - point rate hike [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.3% [2]. 3.6 Option Analysis - For external gold options, the important lower support is around $5,000, and there is also some support around $5,100. The main resistance area is between $5,200 - $5,225. The Put/Call ratio is below 1, indicating a bullish market sentiment [2]. - For external silver options, the key multi - empty balance center is around $85, with some support around $84. There is some resistance around $89, and the expansion of long positions at higher strike prices is not obvious. The Put/Call ratio has fallen below 1, showing a bullish sentiment [2]. 3.7 Key Events to Watch - March 10, 18:00: US February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index [2]. - March 10, 22:00: US February existing home sales data [2]. - March 11, 20:30: US February CPI monthly and annual rates [2]. - March 13, 20:30: US January core PCE price index [2]. - March 13, 22:00: US January durable goods orders [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract adjusted with a reduction in positions. During the Two Sessions in 2026, many NPC deputies and CPPCC members put forward suggestions on the development of the steel industry, focusing on capacity regulation, rectifying "involution - style" competition, and supporting the development of "AI + steel". The weekly output of rebar increased, terminal demand also rose, but inventory was increasing, and the supply - demand situation remained relatively loose. Trump said that the war with Iran might end soon, international oil prices fell from high levels, market panic decreased, and commodity prices generally corrected. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting at high levels, and the red column turned green. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,104.00 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume was 1,731,363 lots, down 9,469 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 2,322 lots, up 30,995 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread was - 28 yuan/ton, unchanged; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 24,151 tons, unchanged; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 152 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,270.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,354 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the RB main contract was 166.00 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 10.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 770.00 yuan/wet ton, down 8 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,960.00 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.2272 million tons, up 264,100 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 630,300 tons, up 4,400 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.7153 million tons, down 35,300 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 77.69%, down 2.55%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.30%, up 13.19%; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 2.3265 million tons, down 21,800 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.7331 million tons, up 82,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 37.99%, up 1.80%; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.3793 million tons, up 50,900 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 6.3775 million tons, up 699,900 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 35.42%, up 23.96%; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.78 million tons, up 3.3111 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.80%, down 1.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 17.20%, down 1.30%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, down 1.10%; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.5989 billion square meters, down 38.24 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, down 53.13 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing was 402.36 million square meters, down 8.75 million square meters [2] Industry News - According to data from the General Administration of Customs on March 10, from January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel imports were 827,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. From March 2nd to March 8th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.0084 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 34.4%. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 1.6341 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 29% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract first declined and then rebounded. The panic in the market decreased as the price dropped from a high level, weakening the support for the ore price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a high level with the red bar shrinking. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased. Steel mills in North China limited production, leading to a decline in molten iron output, and the iron ore port inventory continued to increase. It is recommended to refer to short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 784.00 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the position volume is 467,965 hands, down 5,292 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 27 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 I contracts is - 41,153 hands, down 2,654 hands. The DCE warehouse receipt is 2,900.00 hands, up 300.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 103.75 US dollars/ton, up 0.68 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 825 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore is 814 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The price of 56.5% Chaote fine ore at Jingtang Port is 736 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 30 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 104.55 US dollars/ton, up 1.90 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.23, up 0.05. The estimated import cost is 830 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 2,897.80 tons, down 442.90 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,697.50 tons, up 467.50 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,894.83 tons, up 3.53 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,011.57 tons, down 73.53 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 tons, up 2,201.21 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 21.00 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 38.60 tons, up 1.48 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 60.90%, up 1.87%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 50.17 tons, up 8.45 tons. The BDI index is 2,066.00, up 56.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 27.71 US dollars/ton, up 1.96 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 12.87 US dollars/ton, up 3.26 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 77.69%, down 2.55%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.30%, down 2.18%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.70%, down 0.45%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 17.83%, down 0.17%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 22.93%, up 1.42%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 22.24%, down 1.64% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 2nd to March 8th, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipping volume was 2,897.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 442.9 tons. The total iron ore shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,342.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 348.5 tons. Australia's shipping volume was 1,753.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 195.3 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,465.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 105.1 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 589.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 153.3 tons. - According to data from the General Administration of Customs on March 10th, China's cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates from January to February were 21,002.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [2]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The manganese - silicon industry has low operating rates, supply contraction, slight demand recovery, and inventory reduction. With cost support and some disturbances, the futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern [2]. - The silicon - iron industry's operating rate continues to decline, demand slightly recovers, and social inventory drops to a low level in the same period in recent years. Considering supply - demand and external factors, the futures price is expected to run in a volatile and bullish way [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price is 6,088.00 yuan/ton, down 44.00 yuan; SF main contract closing price is 5,876.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract positions are 604,123.00 hands, down 26,218.00 hands; SF futures contract positions are 410,531.00 hands, up 281.00 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon's top 20 net positions are - 75,168.00 hands, up 12,171.00 hands; silicon - iron's top 20 net positions are - 25,511.00 hands, up 22.00 hands [2]. - SM 7 - 5 month contract spread is 34.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; SF 7 - 5 month contract spread is 90.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts are 46,010.00 sheets, up 400.00 sheets; SF warehouse receipts are 6,698.00 sheets, up 480.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,850.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,600.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,450.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,550.00 yuan/ton, down 110.00 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average is 5,809.00 yuan/ton, up 188.78 yuan; SF main contract basis is - 326.00 yuan/ton, down 118.00 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis is - 238.00 yuan/ton, down 56.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African high - iron manganese ore average price in Tianjin Port is 32.95 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in Northwest) is 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - South African semi - carbonate manganese ore average price in Tianjin Port is 38.95 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.30 yuan; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) is 730.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke is 1,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory is 472.80 million tons, down 22.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate is 35.70%, up 0.08%; silicon - iron enterprise operating rate is 26.55%, down 1.77% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply is 195,860.00 tons, down 1,575.00 tons; silicon - iron supply is 96,500.00 tons, down 2,100.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory is 387,300.00 tons, down 11,000.00 tons; silicon - iron manufacturer inventory is 66,280.00 tons, down 4,120.00 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Manganese - silicon inventory days in national steel mills is 18.57 days, up 1.09 days; silicon - iron inventory days in national steel mills is 18.72 days, up 1.20 days [2]. - Manganese - silicon demand of five major steel types is 111,169.00 tons, up 943.00 tons; silicon - iron demand of five major steel types is 17,809.40 tons, up 303.60 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 77.71%, down 2.51%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.32%, down 2.13% [2]. - Crude steel production is 6,817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Fugu Jinwantong Magnesium Industry stopped magnesium ingot production for equipment maintenance, expected to last until the end of March, affecting daily output by 120 tons [2]. - The central bank governor said that this year, various monetary policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts will be flexibly and efficiently used [2]. - Affected by the "Shanghai Seven - Point Policy", Shanghai's new - house sales offices had a peak of visits last weekend, and the new - house trading volume in March increased significantly year - on - year [2].

| 数据指标 项目类别 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,256 | -14↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1269676 | -22947↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -8,616 | -14661↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -12 | 0.00 | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 478132 | -884↓ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 152 | +1↑ | | | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,280.00 | -10.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,260.00 | -10.00↓ | | 现货市场 | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,310.00 | -10.00↓ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,170.00 | -10.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 24.00 | +4.00↑ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, and the pig price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. The main 2605 contract on the futures market closed down 1.15% and is operating below the 20 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the entry of second - fattening and capital flow [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 182,346 lots, up 2,323 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,150 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 55,729 lots, down 1,782 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 10,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; in Siping, Jilin was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis was - 880 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 42,9670,000 heads, down 7,130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 3,9610,000 heads, down 290,000 heads [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year increase of CPI was 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 6.08 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 957.11, down 6.02; the monthly output of feed was 30,086,000 tons, up 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,430 yuan/head, up 1 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 58.89 yuan/head, down 79.72 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was - 237.98 yuan/head, down 78.33 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 4,4040,000 heads, down 4,870,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on March 10, 2026, the daily national live pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 304,634 heads, an increase of 3.69% from the previous day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, it is in a stage of both supply and demand increase, and the suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, it is in a situation of both supply and demand increase with seasonal accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the suggestion is light - position oscillatory trading with risk control [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, it is in a stage of both supply and demand increase, with downstream purchasing意愿 driving inventory reduction. The suggestion is light - position oscillatory trading with risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,880 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,839 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 3,388 US dollars/ton, down 43 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 454,625 tons, down 2,250 tons [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 130 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina was - 44 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 12,926 hands to 206,507 hands; the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 11,248 hands to 292,736 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 25,200 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,620 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 25,260 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,120 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 320 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 83%, down 1% [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste was 19,700 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the import quantity of aluminum waste and scrap in China was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import quantity of primary aluminum was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export quantity of primary aluminum was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons [2] - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 98.93%, up 0.04% [2] - The aluminum product output was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 42.96 million tons, down 11.04 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy was 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2] - The completed production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 25.54%, down 9.59%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 33.21%, down 0.80% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract was 34.01%, up 0.0745; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.87, up 0.0112 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In February, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [2] - The Iran conflict severely hit the eurozone economic growth expectations, and the Sentix confidence index in the eurozone in March fell 7.3 points to - 3.1 [2] - US President Trump said that the war was basically over, was considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and it was too early to talk about seizing Iranian oil [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, factors such as geopolitical games, oil price fluctuations, and inflation risks will continue to impact the precious metals market. However, as the precious metals market has partially digested the negative impact of "rising inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations", once the oil price rally slows down, precious metals are expected to return to their own logic and prices may gradually rise in a volatile manner. In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still recommend buying on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 9, 2026, London gold spot was $5096.61/ounce, London silver spot was $83.54/ounce, COMEX gold was $5104.30/ounce, and COMEX silver was $83.63/ounce. Compared with March 6, 2026, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 0.4% and silver down about 1.0% - 1.2%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed certain changes, with AU2604 at 1140 yuan/gram and AG2604 at 21745 yuan/kilogram [3] - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.4 yuan/gram on March 9, 2026, with a 14.3% increase compared with March 6. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 52.43, with a - 0.1% change [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 6, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1073.32 tons, a - 0.24% change compared with March 5. The silver ETF - SLV was 15761.62327 tons, a - 0.30% change. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different degrees of change [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 9, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 104934.00 kilograms, a - 0.09% change compared with March 6. The SHFE silver inventory was 253370.00 kilograms, a - 1.01% change. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased [3] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 9, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92, a 0.19% increase compared with March 6. The US dollar index was 98.96 on March 6, a - 0.09% change compared with March 5. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had different degrees of change [3] 5. Market Review - On March 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.08% to 1140 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.7% to 21547 yuan/kilogram [3] 6. Impact Analysis - Geopolitical factors: The election of Khamenei's son as the Supreme Leader of Iran makes the US - Iran conflict difficult to ease in the short term. The production cuts announced by some Middle - Eastern countries over the weekend led to a sharp increase in US crude oil prices, increasing inflation risks and suppressing precious metals prices. Later, the news of the G67 group's possible coordinated release of oil reserves narrowed the increase in oil prices, and the decline in precious metals prices also slowed down [4] - Other factors: The unexpected weakness of the US February non - farm payrolls increases the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy, the risk of the US private credit crisis is initially revealed, the US - Iran situation remains tense, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 16th consecutive month, which provides support for precious metals prices. For silver, geopolitical and stagflation risks may suppress its industrial attributes, but the continuous decline in inventory provides support for silver prices [4] 7. Future Market Analysis - Short - term: Geopolitical games, oil price fluctuations, and inflation risks will continue to impact the precious metals market. Once oil price increases slow down, precious metals may return to their own logic and prices may rise [5] - Long - term: The underlying logic of the precious metals bull market is solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents will continue, and precious metals prices have room to rise. Long - term strategies recommend buying on dips [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of economic and corporate profits is neutral to bearish. Due to the Spring Festival month - shift, the manufacturing PMI declined seasonally. In February 2026, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.0 (previous value 49.3), and non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (previous value 49.4). The economic targets and policy stance in 2026 announced during the "Two Sessions" basically met expectations, with the economic growth target set at 4.5% - 5% [3]. - Policy influence is neutral to bullish. The government work report put forward goals such as economic growth, unemployment rate, and inflation. The CSRC Chairman proposed to improve market mechanisms and add a more precise and inclusive listing standard on the GEM [3]. - Overseas factors are bearish. The uncertainty in the Middle East has intensified, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in WTI crude oil prices. International institutions warned that it may interrupt the global inflation downward trend, increasing the risk of "stagflation" [3]. - Liquidity is neutral. The trading volume of A - shares last week increased, but it also showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The average daily trading volume increased by 2043.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week [3]. - The investment view is to go long in the medium - to - long - term. In the short term, due to the high uncertainty of geopolitical factors, it is expected to fluctuate mainly. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the discount advantage of stock index futures, long positions can be built in batches [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - The main logic of influencing factors includes economic and corporate profits (neutral to bearish), policy (neutral to bullish), overseas factors (bearish), and liquidity (neutral). The investment strategy is to go long in the medium - to - long - term, and the risk to focus on is overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - Index performance: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.07% to 4660.4; the Shanghai 50 index fell 1.54% to 2992.7; the CSI 500 index fell 3.44% to 8360.3; the CSI 1000 index fell 3.64% to 8248.9 [5]. - Futures performance: The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined to varying degrees [6]. - Industry performance: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, public utilities (3.4%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (2.1%), and banks (1.6%) led the gains, while media (-7%), non - ferrous metals (-5.5%), computers (-5.3%), electronics (-5.1%), and building materials (-4.3%) led the losses [9]. - Futures trading volume and open interest: The trading volumes of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 72.67%, 68.19%, 93.06%, and 81.40% respectively, while the open interest of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500 futures decreased by 1.24%, 0.94%, and 3.15% respectively, and the open interest of CSI 1000 futures increased by 0.76% [11]. - Futures premium and discount: As of March 6, all contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were in a discount state [15]. - Cross - variety spread: The spread between the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50 was at a high historical level, while the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at a low historical level [19]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - Central bank operations: This week, the central bank conducted 1616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 15250 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 13634 billion yuan. Next week, 2776 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1500 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on the next Tuesday [25]. - Market trading volume and margin trading: As of March 5, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 26434.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 171.8 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market trading volume was 9.5%, at the 74.2% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 2043.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week. As of March 6, the risk premium rate of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was 5.27, at the 51.1% quantile level in the past decade [31]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profits - Macroeconomic indicators: In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, down 0.3 from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, up 0.1 from the previous month. Other economic indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment also showed different trends [34]. - Real estate indicators: The document shows various real estate - related data such as personal housing loan interest rates, housing transaction volumes, and price indices [36]. - Industry indicators: Data on the retail sales of enterprises above the designated size, manufacturing industries, and infrastructure investment in different periods are presented, reflecting the development status of different industries [38][39][40]. - Manufacturing PMI details: In February 2026, in the manufacturing PMI, new orders, new export orders, and production all declined, while the production and operation activity expectation increased [42]. - Index profitability: The document provides the year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company and the return on net assets (TTM) of major broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices [45][46]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - Recent macro - policy trends include economic target setting, fiscal policy (deficit rate, special bonds, etc.), expansion of domestic demand policies, real estate policies, and various regulatory requirements and measures put forward by different departments and meetings [50][51][52]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - US economic data: In February 2026, the US manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, down 0.2 from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 56.1%, up 2.3 from the previous value. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, up 0.1 from the previous value, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was - 92,000, a significant decrease from the previous value. The consumer confidence index was 56.6, up 0.2 from the previous value [63]. - US inflation data: In December 2025, the US PCE increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 3% year - on - year; the CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year [66]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - Index valuation: As of March 6, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.2 times, 11.6 times, 37.5 times, and 50 times respectively, at the 83%, 80%, 78.7%, and 73% quantile levels since October 2014 [72]. - Sector valuation: The document provides the price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their historical quantile levels of different sectors [76].