Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The A-share market weakened, and the central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase to support the Spring Festival cross - season funds, leading to the overall rise of treasury bond futures [8] - The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with the decline of long - term active bonds within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.807%, down 0.6bp [9] - The inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose. The supply pressure of local bonds remained high this week, and attention was paid to the central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival. The net open - market reverse repurchase was 6.45 billion yuan, and the inter - bank capital sentiment index declined [10] - Currently, the fundamental performance is weak, but the structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's loose expectation is not strong. The planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing market concerns. However, the current 1.82% yield of 10 - year treasury bonds does not price in the possible future easing space, and there is allocation demand support at the beginning of the year. With the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the liquidity, the upward space of interest rates should be limited. In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range [11] - Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively support the cross - season funds, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, with a relatively warm market environment. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will rise. Although the cash return will supplement the liquidity, the central bank usually conducts net capital withdrawal, which may be unfavorable for short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important March meetings and policies, and long - term bonds may be more favorable [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares weakened, and treasury bond futures rose across the board due to the central bank's actions. The yields of interest rate bonds declined, and the inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market is in a multi - empty intertwined environment in February, with limited upward space for interest rates and a likely continuation of range - bound fluctuations. Before and after the Spring Festival, the market environment and bond performance may vary [11][12] 2. Industry News - National leaders had important communications, including President Xi Jinping's phone call with the US President and video meeting with the Russian President [13] - The People's Bank of China held a 2026 credit market working meeting, emphasizing financial services in various fields and debt risk resolution [13] - The Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China organized a financial situation analysis meeting in Shanghai, putting forward requirements for credit growth, policy implementation, etc. [14] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development mentioned housing security for young people and support for multi - child families [14] - In January, the transaction volume of second - hand housing in 20 cities was 118,000 units, showing a slight month - on - month decline of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, but with prominent structural contradictions [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including prices, trading volume, and positions of various treasury bond futures contracts on February 5 were provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, and other money market indicators was presented, but specific data details were not elaborated in the text [23][28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves was given [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fuel oil market is affected by multiple factors, with a neutral supply - demand situation. The low - sulfur market has sufficient supply, and the high - sulfur market also maintains an abundant supply. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The market follows the trend of crude oil, with the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure being weak and the high - sulfur fuel oil market performing slightly stronger. FU2603 is expected to operate in the 2760 - 2810 range, and LU2603 in the 3250 - 3300 range [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil show a neutral supply - demand situation. The 2 - month inflow of arbitrage cargoes from the West is expected to be high, keeping the low - sulfur market well - supplied. The high - sulfur fuel oil market also maintains abundant supply due to stable arrivals at the Singapore port. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 950,000 barrels to 25.529 million barrels in the week of February 4. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward. The main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur are short positions, with short positions decreasing. The overnight crude oil fluctuated, and the fuel oil followed. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is slightly stronger [3] - The prices of the FU and LU main contracts increased by 1.40% and 1.14% respectively, and the basis increased by 19.72% and 16%. The spot prices of various types of fuel oil also increased, with the Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rising by 2.12% [5][6] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Iranian situation turmoil and the issuance of Chinese import quotas [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market driver: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The supply of fuel oil is abundant, with high inflows of arbitrage cargoes from the West for low - sulfur and stable arrivals at Singapore port for high - sulfur. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report provides the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but no specific numerical analysis is given [10] 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on February 4, 2026, was 25.529 million barrels, an increase of 950,000 barrels compared to the previous period. Historical inventory data from November 26, 2025, to February 4, 2026, are also provided [3][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of steel decreased in this period. As the holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are gradually on holiday. The inventory continues to increase, and the winter storage intensity this year is significantly weaker than in previous years. The market mostly expects the steel market to remain stable after the holiday. The pre - holiday steel market shows an oscillatory trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Market Conditions - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed up, and closed down at night [1] Important Information - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.15 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 million tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 21.3 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month [1] - In late January 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.42 million tons (8.8%) from the previous ten - day period; an increase of 0.57 million tons (4.0%) compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 0.57 million tons (4.0%) compared with the same ten - day period of last month; a decrease of 0.64 million tons (4.2%) compared with the same ten - day period of last year; an increase of 2.51 million tons (20.6%) compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [1] - In January, 1329 projects started nationwide, with a total investment of about 733.1 billion yuan [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,700 tons (0.4%); the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 592,400 tons (4.6%); the weekly consumption of five major products was 7.6066 million tons, a decrease of 5.1%; among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 16.6% month - on - month, and the consumption of plates increased by 0.1% month - on - month [1] Market Logic - The supply and demand of steel decreased in this period. As the holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are gradually on holiday. The inventory continues to increase, and the winter storage intensity this year is significantly weaker than in previous years. The market for steel after the holiday is mostly expected to be stable. The disk trend depends on sentiment and funds [1] Trading Strategy - The pre - holiday steel market shows an oscillatory trend. Maintaining the previous view, 3050 for rebar is still a strong support. It is recommended to carefully layout short - term long positions between 3050 - 3100 and set stop - losses [1]

转自：新华财经 •银河证券：黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳固 银河证券表示，不应将"美联储换帅"自动等同于市场趋势的大拐点，其政策如何影响美国经济的根本面 才是美元定价的基石。一个由沃什领导的美联储，或将开启央行角色的深刻转变：从金融危机后深度介 入、为市场提供支持的"后盾"，转向更为传统、注重规则与纪律约束的"制度锚"。美元预计短期走强， 长期呈"慢熊"格局；美债短期收益率上行，价格承压，中长期若政策可信，长期通胀预期锚定在2%附 近。全球股市短期承压，长期美股先破后立。黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳固，央行购金将持续增 加，美元信用的任何瑕疵也会加速全球多极化储备体系的构建。 铜冠金源期货表示，隔夜公布的美国12月JOLTS职位空缺创五年多新低，远低于预期。美国挑战者企业 1月裁员10.8万人，创2009年以来同期新高，环比激增205%。美联储理事库克称，美联储必须在近期将 通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前 景不确定性仍处高位。白银价格在短暂反弹之后再度大幅下挫。目前地缘局势暂时缓和，美联储官员发 布鹰派言论，且芝商所与上期所均再度宣布上调黄金白银 ...

后最观点2】影响因素分析：美国恢复原定于6日举行的美伊谈判、中美两国元首通电话等缓和市场避险需求，叠加美元上行风险增加、美股、比特币等大幅走弱、市场再度 网 #fom 担忧流动仪紧冲击，同时国内即将迎来春节，投机资金进一步撤退、打压市场情绪、贵会属市场遭遇二次抛售。但美国AIP数据不佳、周度申请失业金人数反弹, B（Ys、周五市场还将迎来非农就业报告，美元短期上行速变或有所放缓。同时自银现货隔紧格局不改，上期所延续去库，贵金属最为恐慌的地管阶段或已过去。综上，展 ₪Μ 《星后市，春节前，市场资金情绪或较为谨慎，贵金属价格料逐步进入区间震荡走势，但中长期逻辑尚未改变。中长期来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑仍旧坚固，在美 供参考) 联储年内仍有降息概率、全球地缘不痛定性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续，贵金属价格重心仍 有上行空间,逐步企稳后将带来较好的中长期配置机会。 2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/6 ...

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 138941 k 利 tt 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 3100 140070 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -1420 1、加拿大将允许最多49,000辆中国电动汽车进入加拿大市场,最优惠的关税率为 6.1% = T 2026年1月9日，财政部、税务总局联合发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告。公告指出，自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31 他产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%;2027年1月1日起,取消电池产品增值税出口退税。 H 今日碳酸锂期价下跌主要系宏观情绪走弱引发的流动性连锁反应，叠加智利锂盐出口数据引发的恐慌情绪的蔓延。短期内下游节前备货需求基 完成主要影响节奏。但中长期的电池抢出口需求以及供给端末有大幅扩产的向上驱动未变。节前预计市场将趋于平淡、 员 免 告申的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资、责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-06甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：本周国内甲醇市场低位震荡概率较大。内地方面，春节前甲醇工厂仍以积极出货维持库存为主，供应相对 宽松。但随着春节临近，部分传统下游陆续停工放假。基本面仍显弱势，对行情有一定压制作用。与此同时，部分下游 仍有备货需求，且当前产销地区甲醇价格均处在底部空间，尤其是运费坚挺支撑销区到货价格。多空交织下预计后期内 地甲醇窄幅震荡。港口方面，压力边界上移至2400，预计在宏观未有炒作点的情况下，本周港口现货市场在压力位下方 区间震荡。关注地缘风险带来的市场不确定，巨大的政治冲突或快速改变定价逻辑，让市场波动不断加剧；中性 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2220 - 2280. It bottomed out and rebounded, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. With the short - term negative impact of China's potential cancellation of Canadian agricultural product export restrictions out of the way, the market has returned to an oscillatory state. Although the spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, low inventory supports the market. Considering the good demand expectation after the Spring Festival, the market is expected to remain range - bound in the medium term despite short - term weakening due to the improvement in China - Canada trade relations [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the long - holiday off - season. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canada is in the rapeseed harvesting and exporting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume. Future actions depend on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed output and the increase in Russia's rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival and no pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the upcoming resumption of China's imports of Canadian rapeseed due to improved China - Canada trade relations [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of Canadian rapeseed imports arriving at ports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From January 28 to February 5, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The spot price of rapeseed meal was relatively strong, and the spot premium remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined from a high level [13][22][24]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory was 43.78 tons, down 2.6% week - on - week from 44.95 tons last week and 12.79% year - on - year compared to 50.2 tons in the same period last year. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance tables of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 to 2025 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, output, consumption, inventory, etc. [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **View**: Rapeseed meal bottomed out and rebounded due to Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China and the improvement in China - Canada trade relations. Considering the current off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, the market will remain oscillatory after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the future development of China - Canada trade relations [9]. - **Strategy**: The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2220 - 2280 [9].

1.中国光伏行业协会预计，2026年中国光伏新增装机规模将回落至180GW至240GW，"十五五"期间年均光伏新增装机量为 238GW至287GW。工信部电子信息司副司长王世江指出，治理光伏行业内卷将是今年工作的重中之重。 2.欧洲央行维持基准利率不变，为去年6月以来连续第五次暂停降息。不过，欧洲央行并未释放下一步政策走向的明确信号， 强化了市场对货币政策在一段时间内保持稳定的预期。官员们正密切关注欧元升值对出口竞争力和通胀前景的影响。 3.上期所发布通知，自2月9日收盘结算时起，黄金、白银期货已上市合约涨跌停板幅度分别调整为17%和20%，套保持仓交易保 证金比例调整为18%和21%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为19%和22%。 早盘速递 2026/2/6 热点资讯 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (1,400,000) (1,200,000) (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (400,000) (200,000) 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall financial market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different sectors affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the stock index futures market is affected by risk preferences and commodity price fluctuations; the bond market has opportunities due to the change of risk preferences; the agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply and demand; the black metal market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal market is influenced by factors such as the US economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply and demand; the energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply and demand, and cost [19][22][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences continue to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a slightly stronger direction due to the strength of heavy - weight stocks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads [20][21] Bond Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences are fluctuating. The bond market performs relatively strongly, but the sentiment is still cautious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips for TF and T contracts; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [22][23] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core view: The demand side of US soybeans has improved, and the domestic soybean meal cost is supported, but the supply is becoming looser. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use the short straddle strategy [25][26] Sugar - Core view: International sugar prices are at the bottom and oscillating, while domestic sugar prices are relatively strong and are also expected to oscillate at the bottom. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to pay attention to whether the previous low of international sugar prices can be effectively broken, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31][32][33] Oil and Fat Sector - Core view: Oils and fats maintain a wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as trade and policy expectations, and there is a callback demand. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly or go long on dips after the callback; for arbitrage, consider the y59 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [34][35] Corn/Corn Starch - Core view: The spot price in the production area is stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on the US 03 corn contract after it stabilizes and short on the 03 corn contract lightly on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [37][38] Live Pigs - Core view: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has risen slightly, but there is still pressure in the follow - up. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading and arbitrage are recommended to be on the sidelines; for options, use the short straddle strategy [40][41] Peanuts - Core view: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates in a narrow range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly for the 03 peanut contract; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42][43][44] Eggs - Core view: Pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and egg prices have fallen. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies for the June contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [45][46][47] Apples - Core view: Pre - festival sales are good, and apple prices are firm. The May contract price is expected to rise easily and fall hard. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the May contract and short on rallies for the October contract; for arbitrage, long the May contract and short the October contract; for options, stay on the sidelines [48][49][50] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core view: The fundamentals change little, and cotton prices are supported. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the Zhengzhou cotton contract in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [52][53] Black Metals Steel - Core view: The demand is weakening marginally, and steel prices continue to oscillate following raw materials. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position of the coil - screw spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [55][56] Coking Coal and Coke - Core view: The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, with large fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to trade in bands and wait for opportunities to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [57][58][59] Iron Ore - Core view: Market expectations are fluctuating, and iron ore prices are running weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [60][61] Ferroalloys - Core view: The cost support is strong, and the previous long positions can be held. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the previous long positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Core view: Pessimistic sentiment is spreading, and short - term fluctuations are intensifying. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [65][67][68] Platinum and Palladium - Core view: Under the strong US dollar, the metals are oscillating. Be cautious when participating in unilateral trading. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [68][69] Copper - Core view: Pay attention to the change of sentiment before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [70][73][74] Alumina - Core view: Short - term marginal changes in production capacity cause fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [75][76][77] Electrolytic Aluminum - Core view: Wait for the volatility to decline before the Spring Festival, and the medium - term expectation remains unchanged. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautious; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [78][79] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: Oscillate following the sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [80][81] Zinc - Core view: Pay attention to the change of market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the short positions and move the stop - loss line down; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [82][84][85] Lead - Core view: Oscillate within a range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly within a range; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [86][88] Nickel - Core view: Oscillate following the non - ferrous metal sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then go long; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [89][91] Stainless Steel - Core view: Supported by cost, follow the nickel price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival and go long on dips after the price stabilizes; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [93][96] Industrial Silicon - Core view: The expectation of organic silicon production reduction increases, revising the previous view. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [97][99] Polysilicon - Core view: Industry self - discipline and price - support expectations rise again, and the market fluctuates more. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be strong in oscillation and operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [100][101] Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Before the Spring Festival, it is dominated by sentiment, and wait for the volatility to decline. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to reduce the exposure; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options after the price stabilizes [102][104] Tin - Core view: Pay attention to the market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for options, stay on the sidelines [105][106] Shipping Container Shipping - Core view: Shipping companies announce price increases in March, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation in Iran. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, conduct the 6 - 10 calendar spread [107][108][109] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Core view: Wait for the outcome of events. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak in oscillation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [110][111][113] Asphalt - Core view: There are still concerns about the increase in raw material costs and supply gaps in the medium term. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level and go long on dips for the BU2606 contract; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU and short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [114][115][116] Fuel Oil - Core view: The high - sulfur spot market is always strong, and pay attention to the short - term geopolitical risks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 calendar spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [118][119][120] LPG - Core view: Oscillate and consolidate before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [121][123] Natural Gas - Core view: Geopolitical risks reach a critical point, and cold weather is about to affect Eurasia. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to continue to hold the short positions for the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [123][124] PX&PTA - Core view: Polyester production cuts are gradually implemented, and textile sales are gradually stopping. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [126][127] BZ&EB - Core view: The supply - demand balance is expected to improve, and benzene ethylene is in a stage of destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage, conduct the calendar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [128][130][131] Ethylene Glycol - Core view: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [132][133] Short - fiber - Core view: Short - fiber factories reduce production as planned. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [134][135] Bottle Chips - Core view: The processing margin is strengthening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [136][137] Propylene - Core view: The supply - demand support is acceptable, and the spot price is running strongly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [139][140][141] Plastic PP - Core view: The PP production profit margin has improved slightly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the L 2605 contract and the PP 2605 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [142][143] Caustic Soda - Core view: The caustic soda price is weak. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [144][146][147] PVC - Core view: Oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [150][151] Soda Ash - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [152][155][156] Glass - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [157][159] Methanol - Core view: Run weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 59 calendar spread; for options, short the put options on the callback [160][161][164] Urea - Core view: The market turns weak again. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [165][167] Pulp - Core view: The pulp price continues to oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range and long on dips for aggressive investors; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the SP2605 - C - 5350 option [168][169][171] Offset Printing Paper - Core view: High inventory suppresses the paper price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [171][172][178] Logs - Core view: The change of delivery rules is beneficial to the log valuation. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the long positions; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 3 - 5 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [175][176][180] Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - Core view: As the Spring Festival approaches, the tire production starts to increase marginally. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract and the NR 04 contract; for arbitrage, hold the NR2605 - RU2605 spread; for options, reduce the position of the RU2605 call 18250 contract and stay on the sidelines [180][181][183] Butadiene Rubber - Core view: The synthetic rubber inventory turns to year - on - year destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the BR 04 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [184][185][186]