廖市无双：节后市场能否走出主升浪？20250505 摘要 • 上证指数在 3,140-3,500 点区间震荡，中枢约 3,330-3,340 点，清明节 后下翻修复，上方套牢盘集中在 3,300 点以上，反弹阻力逐渐增大，形成 楔形形态，补缺口难度增加。关注外部利好能否加速突破，否则可能转折 向下。 • 节前三个交易日市场窄幅震荡，上证 50 微跌，成长指数反弹。上证 50 已 补缺口并超涨，蓝筹股指数未能表达趋势性变化，区间震荡偏空。恒生科 技指数压力位对应跳空缺口上沿，受中美贸易紧张局势影响，存在抛售压 力，预计 4 月 27 日前仍区间震荡。 • 未来市场走势以区间震荡为主，支撑位在跳空缺口下沿，压力位在跳空缺 口上沿（约 3,350-3,340 点）。中证 500、1,000 和国证 2000 震荡反映 市场交易心理，投资者认为"有缺必补"，且前期风险偏好低，集中在自 主可控、内需板块，风险偏好回升后，这些板块成为补涨主战场。 • 市场风险偏好提高，成长风格优于价值风格。上证 50 已补缺，中证 1,000、国证 2000 仍有较大缺口。前期受压制的 AI、机器人等题材开始 表现强劲，资金转向需要补涨 ...

Market Performance - In April, A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.7% to 3279.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.75% to 9899.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 7.4% to 1948.03 points [1][2]. Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the A-share market in May, suggesting it is a good time for positioning, as historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 7 out of the last 15 years during the 10 trading days following the May Day holiday [2][3]. Sector Performance - Historical analysis indicates that consumer and large financial sectors tend to perform well in the 10 trading days before and after the May Day holiday, driven by policy support and upward industry trends [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on three asset categories: stable assets (high dividends, gold), self-sufficient industrial chains, and domestic consumption [4][5]. - There is a consensus that the Chinese stock market's upward momentum is not over, with suggestions to increase allocations to Chinese assets due to improved economic policies and a decrease in risk premiums [4][5]. Structural Opportunities - May is expected to see a structural recovery in A-shares, with a focus on consumption, technology, and dividend stocks as key investment themes [5].

A股公司赴港上市队伍进一步扩大。仅4月22日至4月28日，就有8家A股公司向香港交易及结算所有限公 司（以下简称"港交所"）递表。《证券日报》记者根据公司公告及递表情况统计，截至5月5日，有46家 A股公司拟赴港上市。其中，已向港交所递表并获得中国证监会境外发行上市备案通知书的A股公司有7 家。 在政策支持、港股吸引力提升等多重因素推动下，越来越多的公司谋求赴港上市，以期拓展国际业务版 图、优化融资渠道、提升全球影响力。 消费、科技公司占多数 上述拟赴港上市的A股公司大多来自消费、科技等行业。例如，佛山市海天调味食品股份有限公司、东 鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司、安井食品集团股份有限公司都是国内知名的消费品公司。宁德时代新能 源科技股份有限公司、蓝思科技股份有限公司、浙江三花智能控制股份有限公司、江苏恒瑞医药股份有 限公司则来自新能源、芯片、医药等科技产业。 "消费零售企业赴港上市的主要驱动因素包括企业的国际化扩张战略、吸引国际投资者优化股东结构， 以及香港资本市场在后续融资和股权激励方面更具灵活性等。"高盛亚洲（除日本外）消费零售主管兼 并购主管Sushil Bathija表示，多数消费零售企业现金流充沛、盈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][2]. - Production and new orders indices are at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point drop, demonstrating resilience and strong support from market demand and policy [3]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to external economic changes, particularly the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease following the peak in March [2][3]. Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates expansion [4]. - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with seasonal factors contributing to this change [5]. - The construction PMI is reported at 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, although civil engineering activity shows a significant increase, indicating potential for future growth [5]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is that domestic demand will counterbalance the slowdown in external demand, becoming a key support for manufacturing sector performance [6]. - There is a prediction that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the contraction zone in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to increased policy support [7]. - The likelihood of policy rate cuts is increasing as the manufacturing PMI remains in contraction for two consecutive months, with expectations for timely adjustments in monetary policy [1][7].

Group 1 - The A-share market maintained a volatile consolidation before the May Day holiday, while the Hong Kong stock market continued to rebound, with the Every Day Brand 100 Index slightly down by 0.12% to close at 1052 points [1][2] - Chinese concept stocks led the gains, with notable weekly increases for Xiaomi Group (11.32%), JD Group (6.7%), and Pinduoduo (6.64%), while several other stocks also showed strong performance [2] - In April, the Every Day Brand 100 Index exhibited a "V" shaped trend despite external shocks, indicating a slow recovery in market confidence and the need for a solid economic rebound [2][3] Group 2 - With the disclosure of Q1 2025 quarterly reports, public funds showed significant adjustments in their holdings, with Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and SMIC seeing the largest increases in positions [4] - The total scale of public funds reached 31.62 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.93% from the previous quarter, indicating a shift in investment strategies [4] - Alibaba's stock price surged by 55.34% in Q1 2025, driven by strategic divestments and a focus on core business operations, including advancements in its AI model [4] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since 2025, with both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index outperforming mainland indices, suggesting potential investment opportunities in specific Hong Kong stocks [5] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF covers a wide range of Chinese concept stocks, with Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi accounting for approximately 45% of the index weight [6] Group 4 - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which tracks 50 leading technology companies, reflects the overall performance of technology stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect framework [9] - The index has demonstrated superior returns over mainstream broad-based indices, with an annualized return of 12.34% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.52, indicating a favorable risk-return profile [12]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 880 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, primarily due to the divestment of its real estate business [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 50.712 million yuan, down 14.1% year-on-year, influenced by reduced income, decreased profits from associated companies, and increased R&D expenses [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 46.990 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved to 51.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin was 7.2%, down 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [1] - The selling expense ratio decreased to 35.5%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio increased to 4.7%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Cosmetics Segment - The cosmetics segment generated revenue of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with a gross margin of 61.1% [2] - The Yilian brand achieved revenue of 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, while the Ai'er Doctor brand saw revenue decline by 18.4% to 240 million yuan [2] - The segment focused on R&D and technological innovation, with 12 new patents authorized and 47 new products launched [2] Pharmaceutical and Raw Materials Segment - The pharmaceutical business achieved revenue of 110 million yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, with a gross margin of 54.8% [3] - The raw materials and derivatives segment generated revenue of 90 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with a gross margin of 29.7% [3] - The company launched 8 new health food products and received international patent authorization for sodium hyaluronate quaternary ammonium salt [3] Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 330 million, 370 million, and 420 million yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 23, 20, and 18 times [3] - The company anticipates significant growth signals in 2025, driven by consumer spending and the expansion of its skincare and sub-brands [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings that met market expectations, with total revenue of 876 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, primarily due to the divestment of its real estate business. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 50.71 million yuan, down 14.1% year-on-year, influenced by reduced revenue, decreased profits from associates, and increased R&D expenses [7][10] - The gross margin improved to 51.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.2%, down 1.0 percentage points. The sales expense ratio decreased to 35.5%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [7][12] - The cosmetics segment showed resilience, with revenue of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, and a gross margin of 61.1%. The Yilian brand achieved revenue of 250 million yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year, while the Aierbos brand saw a revenue decline of 18.4% [7] - The pharmaceutical and raw materials segments remained stable, with pharmaceutical revenue at 110 million yuan, maintaining year-on-year levels, and a gross margin of 54.8%. The raw materials segment achieved revenue of 90 million yuan, a 2.4% increase year-on-year [7] - The company aims to leverage its R&D advantages to build a comprehensive health industry chain across cosmetics, raw materials, and pharmaceuticals. The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 330 million, 370 million, and 420 million yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 18 times [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 4,009 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 329 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35.1% [6] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 57.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.5% [6]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a return to technology growth in May 2025, focusing on three main investment directions [2][5] - The recommended "golden stocks" for May include companies from various sectors such as technology, environmental services, defense, and healthcare, with detailed financial metrics provided [3][68] - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors such as "loose monetary policy" and "weak dollar" in influencing market styles, favoring small-cap growth stocks [5][6] Group 2 - For the computer sector, the report recommends Shen Sanda A, citing its strong position in AI infrastructure and data services, with expected revenue growth driven by government and state-owned enterprise demand [10][11] - In the environmental services sector, Hanlan Environment is highlighted for its potential revenue growth and improved cash flow due to ongoing debt resolution and operational efficiency [15][16] - The defense sector's Steel Research High-tech is projected to benefit from increasing market demand for high-temperature alloys, with significant profit growth anticipated [20][23] Group 3 - The report identifies Xiaoshangpin City in the commerce sector as a key player in the small commodity trade, benefiting from the growth of the Yiwu market and new business opportunities in cross-border e-commerce [29][31] - Horizon Robotics is noted for its advanced autonomous driving solutions, with a significant market opportunity as the penetration of high-level autonomous vehicles increases [36][40] - BeiGene is recognized for its innovative drug pipeline, particularly the growth of its core product, with expectations of substantial revenue increases in the coming years [44][45] Group 4 - The report discusses the electronic sector's Jingzhida, which is positioned to capture market share in storage testing machines, with significant growth potential as domestic demand increases [54][55] - In the new energy sector, Sanhua Intelligent Control is highlighted for its strategic partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, anticipating strong profit growth driven by electric vehicle demand [56][57] - Huichuan Technology is noted for its advancements in automation and robotics, with expectations of increased market share and profitability as the industry recovers [62][63]

"充分肯定建立防城港国际医学开放试验区在推动上海合作组织国家、东盟国家开展国际医学创新 合作中发挥的重要作用。促进国际医疗保障政策交流，推动区域医疗医保医药协同发展，更好服务高质 量共建'一带一路'……" 4月29日，2025年国际医学创新合作论坛发布了《2025年国际医学创新合作论坛倡议》，呼吁各国 加强在医学创新领域的合作，共同推动医疗卫生事业的发展，为构建人类卫生健康共同体贡献力量。 山海连心，健康为桥。4月28—30日，2025年国际医学创新合作论坛在防城港成功举办，进一步凝 聚构建人类卫生健康共同体的国际共识，推动防城港国际医学开放试验区（以下简称医学试验区）这一 重要平台建设，汇聚推动国际医学创新合作的上合力量，为推动全球卫生健康事业的发展贡献智慧和力 量。 凝聚构建人类卫生健康共同体共识 健康是全人类的共同追求，也是各国人民幸福生活的基础。 本届论坛以"医学创新共享 健康可持续发展"为主题，精心设计开幕式、主旨演讲、分论坛等系列 活动，打造了一场国际医学创新领域的学术盛宴。 "论坛的成功举办将为广西医药产业注入新动能，创造更多发展机遇，有力推动区域医药事业迈向 新高度。"中国医学科学院基础医学研 ...

值得一提的是，排名第三与第七的人形机器人赛道基金，在今年1月初的资产规模均不足汇添富香港优势精选基金规 模的25%，但在人形机器人赛道热度吸引下，年初规模仍极为迷你的2只产品实现急速增长，使得汇添富香港优势精 选基金在规模上已只相当于2只产品的10%与25%，这显示出业绩或排名虽然对基金产品的规模吸金能力有正向贡 献，但并不是唯一因素，甚至也可能不是主要因素。 吸金能力差距巨大 尽管许多基金产品的业绩并不逊色于人形机器人赛道，但基于高弹性和市场话题热度，人形机器人赛道基金几乎成 为本轮市场的最大的吸金产品。 业绩遥遥领先的医药基金正头疼于基金的吸金能力，或艳羡于吸金规模后来居上的人形机器人赛道基金。 券商中国记者注意到，年内基金业绩排名第二且重仓医药股的汇添富香港优势精选基金，今年一季度规模增长仅 23%。而排名第一、第三、第七的产品均为重仓人形机器人赛道的基金，其一季度规模增长分别为10倍、51倍、27 倍。 以平安先进制造主题基金为例，该产品今年内的收益率为52.59%，但该产品规模从今年1月初的4900万元暴增到3月 末的近14亿元。这意味着许多在1月初资产规模尚无法赶超汇添富香港优势精选基金的产品，在 ...