策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 进入四季度下半旬，板块轮动加快。股指震荡为主;中长期来看,国内市场为流动性叙事,增量资金源源不断，股指盘整过后仍有上行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美经贸磋商取得积极成果,双方在关税、海事等多方面达成共识。 板块轮动加快，股指缩量震荡 日期：2025-12-07 【股指期货周报20251207】板块轮动加快，股指缩量震荡 2. 美国进入新的降息周期,降息利于人民币升值,利于外资回流,带来新的增量资金。 3.当前稳定资本市场政策积极，股指底线明确，而新技术、新消费在推动者经济预期企稳回升："十五五"规划提高对科技创新要求，扩内需，未来五年政策 大方向落地。 4. 无风险利率降至低位后,中长期资金入市及居民入市将进入全新周期。 5. 未来指数需要关注成交情况,两市成交若能维持在两万亿上方,则仍能维持相对强势。 6. 建议重点配置具备盈利确定性的半导体、AI算力等科技成长赛道，同时关注金融、Giz券 、消费等低估值防御板块的轮动配置价值。 【风险提示】 浙商期货有限公司 报告撰写人:周志超 从业资格号: F03087618 投资咨询号: Z0019474 全 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that China's modernization requires open cooperation and mutual benefit, with a commitment to expanding its openness to the world [1][2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a steady expansion of institutional openness and maintaining a multilateral trade system to promote international circulation and shared development [1][2] - China aims to proactively shape its international environment and seize opportunities for reform and development during the "15th Five-Year" period [1][2] Group 2 - The concept of "autonomous openness" is highlighted as a key feature of China's high-level opening strategy, focusing on independent and confident development [2] - The China International Import Expo showcased products from developing countries, indicating China's commitment to engaging with the global south [2] - The approach to openness is characterized by a strategic alignment with domestic needs while fostering positive interactions with the world [2] Group 3 - The deepening of reforms necessitates higher levels of openness, and vice versa, indicating a reciprocal relationship between reform and openness [3] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to launch full island closure operations, aiming to align with international high-standard economic and trade rules [3] - The focus will be on trade and investment liberalization, expanding market access, and creating a favorable business environment [3] Group 4 - China's openness is framed as a collaborative effort rather than a unilateral action, emphasizing mutual benefits in international projects [4] - Significant projects in countries like Serbia and Kenya demonstrate China's commitment to infrastructure and social development through the Belt and Road Initiative [4][5] Group 5 - The foreign trade sector is identified as a crucial driver of economic growth and a key mechanism for expanding openness [6] - China's foreign trade maintained its global leadership, with goods trade ranking first and service trade second globally, with expectations to exceed $1 trillion in 2024 [6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines new requirements for enhancing trade quality and efficiency, focusing on goods, services, and digital trade [6] Group 6 - The optimization of goods trade involves diversifying markets and integrating domestic and foreign trade [7] - The introduction of initiatives to promote green trade reflects a commitment to sustainable development [7] Group 7 - The service trade sector is increasingly recognized as a vital component of global trade growth, with efforts to enhance service exports [8] - The expansion of service trade is seen as both a priority and a challenge, requiring effective management reforms [8] Group 8 - Digital trade is positioned as a significant area for growth, with cross-border e-commerce showing remarkable vitality [9] - Statistics indicate a substantial increase in international cargo volume at key ports, reflecting the growth of digital trade [9] Group 9 - The dual approach of "bringing in" and "going out" is emphasized as a necessary strategy for high-level openness [10] - The focus is on creating a favorable investment environment to attract foreign investment while guiding global supply chain layouts [10][11] Group 10 - The promotion of reinvestment by foreign enterprises in China is highlighted as a strategy to enhance the investment environment [11] - Measures are being implemented to encourage foreign companies to reinvest, fostering a cycle of investment and growth [11][12] Group 11 - The need for a comprehensive overseas service system is underscored to support enterprises in navigating international markets [12] - Initiatives like the "Shenzhen Outbound E-Station" aim to provide extensive support for companies venturing abroad [12]

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Committee emphasizes the establishment of a high-level platform for open cooperation with ASEAN, focusing on AI and enterprise-led initiatives [1] Group 1: Economic Development Initiatives - The plan includes upgrading the China-ASEAN Expo and the China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit, implementing the "Nanning Channel" expansion action, and creating a perpetual exhibition [1] - It aims to enhance the development of the China-Malaysia "Two Countries, Two Parks" initiative and accelerate the construction of industrial cooperation platforms with Cambodia, Thailand, and Indonesia [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Economic Cooperation - The proposal highlights the promotion of cross-border economic cooperation with Vietnam and the deepening of the Guangxi-Brunei Economic Corridor [1] - It focuses on enhancing industrial cooperation with ASEAN countries and upgrading specialized corridor-type industries [1] Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The plan includes high-level construction of the Fangchenggang International Medical Open Pilot Zone and a financial open portal aimed at ASEAN [1] - It encourages deep participation in the implementation of the China-ASEAN Technology Innovation Enhancement Plan and the establishment of a high-quality China-ASEAN Artificial Intelligence Innovation Cooperation Center [1] Group 4: Encouragement for Domestic Enterprises - The proposal encourages more domestic companies to leverage the Guangxi platform to "go global" [1]

马斯克：SpaceX 正以 8000 亿美元估值融资的消息并不准确 华尔街日报此前报道称 SpaceX 正启动新一轮二次股票出售，若交易完成，其公司估值有望翻倍至 8000 亿美元（现汇率约合 5.66 万亿元人民币），一举 超越 OpenAI 成为全美最有价值的私营公司。与此同时，SpaceX 高管层明确表示，公司正在评估于 2026 年进行首次公开募股（IPO）的可能性。 对此，马斯克于当地时间周六否认 SpaceX 正以 8000 亿美元估值融资，但未回应关于该公司计划出售内部股份的报道。 马斯克在其社交媒体平台 X 的一篇帖子中表示：「SpaceX 以 8000 亿美元估值融资的消息并不准确。SpaceX 多年来一直保持现金流为正，且每年会定期 进行两次股票回购，为员工和投资者提供流动性。估值的提升取决于星舰（Starship）和星链（Starlink）的推进进展，以及获得全球直连手机网络的频 谱，这将大幅扩大公司可服务市场的规模。」（来源：IT 之家） 美国知名机器人公司iRobot爆雷 据报道，美国消费机器人巨头iRobot被曝陷入严重财务危机。截至11月24日，该公司欠中国深圳代工厂杉川机器人超 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for a coherent and focused global engagement strategy for the United States to maintain its status as the world's strongest and most influential nation [3][4][5] - It critiques past U.S. strategies post-Cold War for failing to align with core national interests and for misjudging the American public's willingness to bear global burdens [4][5] - The article highlights the importance of prioritizing core national interests in U.S. foreign policy, focusing on security, economic stability, and the protection of American values [7][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the core objectives of U.S. strategy, including the protection of national sovereignty, economic interests, and the well-being of its citizens [7][8] - It stresses the need for a resilient national infrastructure capable of withstanding various threats, including military attacks and foreign influence [8] - The article advocates for a strong military presence and advanced defense systems to safeguard U.S. interests and deter potential adversaries [8][9] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of maintaining a robust economy as the foundation of U.S. power, emphasizing the need for a strong industrial base and innovative energy sector [8][9] - It highlights the necessity of protecting intellectual property and fostering technological advancements to sustain economic leadership [9] - The article calls for a focus on re-industrialization and energy independence to bolster economic resilience and reduce reliance on foreign sources [12][18] Group 4 - The article outlines the U.S. approach to foreign relations, advocating for a pragmatic and principle-driven diplomacy that prioritizes American interests [11][13] - It emphasizes the need for burden-sharing among allies and partners, particularly in defense spending and regional security responsibilities [14][15] - The article critiques the past U.S. approach to China, calling for a rebalancing of economic relations to ensure fairness and protect American economic independence [25][26] Group 5 - The article identifies the strategic importance of the Western Hemisphere, advocating for a return to Monroe Doctrine principles to safeguard U.S. interests in the region [16][18] - It discusses the need for a proactive stance against foreign adversaries in the Western Hemisphere, emphasizing cooperation with regional allies to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking [19][20] - The article highlights the importance of economic partnerships and investment opportunities in the region to strengthen U.S. influence and counter external threats [22][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that open cooperation and mutual benefit are essential requirements for China's modernization, especially in the context of a rapidly changing global landscape and economic challenges [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests steadily expanding institutional openness, maintaining a multilateral trade system, and promoting international circulation to share opportunities and develop together with other countries [1][2] - China aims to proactively shape its international environment and leverage favorable conditions to enhance strategic initiatives during the "14th Five-Year" period [1] Group 2 - The concept of "autonomous openness" is highlighted as a key feature of China's high-level opening-up strategy, which includes building the Hainan Free Trade Port and high-quality cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative [2][3] - The recent China International Import Expo showcased active trade growth from the Global South, indicating China's commitment to engaging with developing countries through favorable trade terms [2] Group 3 - The relationship between deepening reforms and increasing openness is emphasized, with a call for expanding institutional openness to promote development [4] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to launch full island closure operations, focusing on aligning with international high-standard economic and trade rules [4] Group 4 - China's foreign trade remains a crucial engine for economic growth, with the country maintaining the largest goods trade scale globally and the second-largest service trade scale [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the quality and efficiency of foreign trade, establishing China as a trade powerhouse [6][7] Group 5 - The development of service trade is identified as a key area for future autonomous openness, with a focus on encouraging service exports and optimizing policies for inbound tourism [8] - The rise of digital trade and cross-border e-commerce is noted, with significant growth in international cargo volumes at key ports [9] Group 6 - The strategy of dual-direction investment cooperation is emphasized, combining "bringing in" and "going out" approaches to enhance China's open development [10] - The need to create a favorable investment environment and promote reinvestment by foreign enterprises in China is highlighted [12] Group 7 - The establishment of a comprehensive overseas service system is crucial for enhancing the global capabilities of enterprises, providing support throughout the investment process [13] - The "Shenzhen Outbound E-Station" platform aims to support enterprises in various aspects of international operations, enhancing their risk management capabilities [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the first week of December, the industrial production rhythm slightly accelerated. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the prices of risk assets. The improvement in the supply and demand of domestic investment products was limited. In terms of inflation, the increase in vegetable prices widened, and food prices accelerated their upward trend. In terms of exports, container shipping prices weakened, but the demand for coal transportation in the Pacific market strengthened, corresponding to the supplement of imported coal for winter storage. In terms of investment, supported by the cost side such as coal, cement prices stabilized. The apparent demand for steel weakened, and inventory destocking accelerated, indicating a relatively obvious production contraction. In the real estate sector, the transactions of new and second - hand houses both seasonally slowed down at the beginning of the month. For the bond market, the fundamental supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. The positive signals in the PMI price were worth continuous tracking. Next week, the focus should be on the fiscal and monetary statements of important meetings [3][33]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Inflation - related: Food price increases widened - Food prices accelerated their upward trend. From December 1st to 5th, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, with the decline widening again. Vegetable prices increased by 2.3% week - on - week, with the increase continuing to expand. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 1.5% and 1.7% week - on - week respectively [7]. 2. Import and export - related: Container shipping prices marginally weakened - The CCFI and SCFI indices both declined further. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI decreased by 0.4% week - on - week. The transportation demand on the European route was basically stable, with freight rates slightly declining, and the freight rates on the Mediterranean route increased by about 3%. The demand on the North American route grew weakly, with poor supply - demand balance. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the West and East coasts of the United States decreased by 5% and 4.7% respectively. - In terms of port transportation volume, from November 24th to 30th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 0.3% and increased by 8.4% week - on - week respectively. The monthly average year - on - year growth rates in November were + 10.2% and + 5.7% respectively, stronger than the performance in October. - The BDI and CDFI indices accelerated their rise. This week, the demand for coal transportation from Indonesia in the Panamax market slightly decreased, with reduced trading activity and slightly adjusted freight rates. However, the freight rates in the Pacific market for Capesize vessels soared, with the daily rent reaching a new high since April 2024. Australian miners continued to make inquiries, and the transportation demand for the loading period in mid - to - late December was high, and the long - distance ore routes followed the upward trend [9]. 3. Industry - related: Production and operation slightly improved - Coal price decline widened. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 3.0% week - on - week, with the decline widening. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of power plants in inland provinces remained weak year - on - year. Terminal enterprises mainly fulfilled long - term coal contracts and had low acceptance of high - priced market coal. The daily consumption of coastal power plants slightly decreased. In terms of price, some mining areas completed their production targets at the end of the month and compressed production capacity. Coupled with environmental protection and safety inspections, the growth of domestic coal production was limited, and the coal prices at the origin showed a strong trend. However, the advantage of imported coal became apparent, effectively making up for the supply gap, and the overall port coal prices remained stable. - The increase in rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 1.1% week - on - week, compared with a 0.6% increase in the previous week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of major steel products decreased by 2.9% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.2% week - on - week, with the destocking rhythm continuing to accelerate. The apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.7% week - on - week, and that for rebar decreased by 4.6% week - on - week, with the weakening accelerating, indicating that the supply contraction was relatively greater. - The asphalt operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 0.1 percentage points week - on - week to 27.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The rush - work demand gradually decreased, and the asphalt shipment volume was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. - The increase in copper prices widened. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.5% and 4.3% week - on - week respectively. The expectation of interest rate cuts increased, the US dollar index weakened, and the prominent supply - demand gap pattern promoted the accelerated rise of copper prices. - The glass futures price decreased week - on - week. The spot production and sales of glass performed well, the industry inventory was rapidly destocked. Affected by the market production contraction, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers was boosted, the shipment speed in many places accelerated, the market sentiment of price support strengthened, and the demand side mainly replenished inventory appropriately, with the quoted prices rising and falling [16][21]. 4. Investment - related: Sales seasonally declined at the beginning of the month - Cement prices stopped falling and stabilized. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, showing signs of stabilization. The continuously strong coal prices supported the production cost, but it was the traditional off - season in the north, and the demand in the south was low due to inventory pressure. It was difficult for manufacturers to fully implement price increases, and the overall cement prices maintained a weak and volatile trend. - New - house transactions slightly declined at the beginning of the month. From November 28th to December 4th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 2.118 million square meters, a 0.6% decrease week - on - week and a 36% decrease year - on - year, with the decline continuing to widen. The sales momentum of new houses at the beginning of the month declined. - Second - hand house transactions continued to weaken. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand houses decreased by 2.7% week - on - week and 39.6% year - on - year, with the week - on - week decline widening, mainly due to the high - base effect [24][25]. 5. Consumption: The retail sales of passenger cars in November decreased by 7% year - on - year - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.263 million vehicles, a 7% decrease compared with the same period last year and a 1% increase compared with the previous month. - Crude oil prices continued to rise. As of December 5th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 0.9% and 2.6% week - on - week respectively, with the increase of the latter widening. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the US dollar index, the OPEC +'s policy of suspending production increases, and the failure to reach an agreement in the US - Russia meeting boosted oil prices [27].

Group 1 - The core PCE price index in the U.S. for September decreased from 2.9% to 2.8% year-on-year, while the month-on-month rate remained stable at 0.2% [2] - The PCE data supports the Federal Reserve's potential decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which may alleviate financing cost pressures on the U.S. real economy [2] - Consumer confidence index is low, with the personal consumption expenditure month-on-month rate dropping from 0.2% to 0%, below the expected 0.1% [2] Group 2 - The ISM manufacturing PMI has declined for nine consecutive months, remaining below the growth line, indicating ongoing economic challenges [2] - The U.S. economy faces significant uncertainty, which is also reflected in the capital markets, suggesting potential for increased volatility ahead [2] - The previous correction in the U.S. stock market may not be sufficient, indicating a possibility of a deeper downturn in the near future [2]

新京报贝壳财经讯 12月6日，央行网站显示，2025中国金融学会学术年会暨中国金融论坛年会在北京开 幕。中国金融学会理事会会长易纲作题为《锚定高质量发展 构建中国特色现代金融体系》的主旨演 讲。他指出，在党中央的坚强领导下，中国金融业始终坚持以人民为中心，服务经济建设和社会发展大 局，实现了历史性跨越，取得卓越成就。在全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程中，普惠金融发展要继 续体现包容性，充分做到"以人民为中心"，坚持商业可持续的原则，以金融活水惠及普通百姓。绿色金 融发展要逐步减少碳排放的负外部性并不断收窄绿色溢价，以市场化方式动员社会资本积极参与，共同 推动全经济领域绿色低碳转型。 校对 赵翀琳 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant progress in modern service industry development in Tibet, driven by financial support and government initiatives [1][4]. - A notable increase in credit financing has been observed, with over 26,000 business entities in Tibet included in the credit financing support list, and more than 80% receiving new bank loans totaling over 30 billion yuan [1]. - The development of modern logistics has been supported by substantial investments, with over 2 billion yuan allocated to enhance logistics capabilities, including the acquisition of cold chain transport vehicles [1][2]. Group 2 - The expansion of rural logistics systems in Shannan City has achieved comprehensive coverage, including 577 administrative villages and 467 schools, through innovative models like "postal and express cooperation" [2]. - The optimization of network communication conditions is evident, with 5G base stations reaching 58.6 per 10,000 people and nearly 90% of administrative villages having 5G coverage [3]. - The establishment of integrated medical and elderly care services in Nagqu City reflects a commitment to sustainable social welfare, with 153 beds available and over 2,000 service users [4]. Group 3 - The focus on enhancing the quality of life for residents is evident, with initiatives aimed at creating convenient living circles and expanding postal networks, achieving a 98% coverage rate for rural postal services [4]. - The commitment to high-quality development in the modern service industry aligns with national policies and directives, aiming to improve the overall living standards of the population in Tibet [4].