全文阅读时间约为10分钟。 作者：洪晟、周毅、安梄珍 近期趋势与市场展望 战略路径：适应新现实并确保生存 为应对炼油与石化行业日益严峻的挑战，企业正聚焦于成本削减、产能优化整合与数字化转型。炼油 厂优先推动运营优化与效率提升；而石化企业则将投资转向创新领域，以获取额外利润空间并满足不 断变化的市场需求。 在当今日益复杂且不确定的环境中，运营转型已非可选项，而是关乎生存的关键第一步。企业必须运 用多种杠杆强化运营、提升盈利能力，并建立抵御市场波动与结构性变革的韧性。例如，东亚领先炼 油厂已在2~3年内成功实施端到端数字化转型。这些系统性举措成效显著，实现每桶利润提升0.9至1.3 美元。 对石化企业（尤其在中国）而言，裂解装置竞争力差异显著，且与规模无必然关联。要在这一挑战性 市场中确保长期生存能力，企业需采取全局性主动策略。为保持竞争力并成为"剩"者为王的赢家，企 当前，炼油市场增长放缓，预计到2030年炼油利润率将下降约5%至30%。这一下滑趋势主要由于需求 增长放缓、电动汽车的普及以及炼油产能持续扩张，打破了供需平衡，给行业带来挑战。预计亚洲炼 油厂开工率将显著波动；长期来看，随着产业逐步适应不断演变的市 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global refining and olefins industry is expected to see a decline in refining margins after reaching a peak around 2030, influenced by geopolitical factors, carbon taxes, and the transition to renewable energy. Approximately 1.5 million tons per day of refining capacity has been announced for closure or conversion, with China accounting for 50% of this capacity [1][5][34]. - By 2035, about 22% of global refining capacity (18.4 million barrels per day) is at risk of closure, primarily concentrated in Europe and the Middle East. National Oil Companies (NOCs) are less inclined to close facilities due to government support, while International Oil Companies (IOCs) are more likely to close or sell unprofitable refineries [1][7][8]. Olefins Market Dynamics - Since 2020, global ethylene investment has been predominantly led by China, with private companies like Longsheng and Hengli entering the market significantly. From 2025 to 2028, major state-owned companies like PetroChina and Sinopec are expected to lead investments, shifting focus towards increasing petrochemical production [1][11][12]. - Approximately 40%-50% of global ethylene assets are currently at a loss or breakeven, indicating that the industry is at a cyclical low. China has seen a surge in new refining projects since 2017, leading to global oversupply, while Europe faces significant pressure due to high energy prices and carbon tax issues [1][14][15]. Regional Insights - In the U.S., a refinery in the PAD3 region with a capacity of 290,000 barrels per day has announced closure and will transition to hydrogen production by 2025. Other refineries are also shifting towards renewable fuel production [6][25]. - In Europe, the refining landscape is undergoing structural adjustments, with several companies announcing closures or asset sales to adapt to economic and environmental challenges. By 2028, European ethylene capacity is expected to decrease by 12% compared to 2024 [23][24]. Future Projections - The global refining industry is projected to peak in demand for crude oil and chemical products around 2030 or 2031, after which refining profits and utilization rates will gradually decline. This trend is expected to lead to more local refineries exiting the market, particularly in China and Europe [34][36]. - The ethylene market's future will largely depend on investment levels and the rate of capacity elimination. While the pace of new projects may slow, it does not imply cancellations, especially for large enterprises. Economic recovery in China is expected to significantly impact demand for petrochemical products [36][28]. Risk Assessment - Approximately 63 million tons of global ethylene capacity is at risk of closure, representing 27% of the total capacity by 2025. High and medium-risk capacities are primarily concentrated in Asia and Europe, with North America and Russia having lower closure rates [18][19]. - In China, around 11 million tons of ethylene capacity is at risk of closure in the next five years, with significant portions being high-risk. The government is tightening approvals for new ethylene projects, which is expected to alleviate pressure on domestic refining companies [21][19]. Conclusion - The refining and olefins industries are facing significant transformations driven by market dynamics, regulatory changes, and geopolitical factors. The future landscape will be shaped by capacity adjustments, investment trends, and the ongoing transition towards more sustainable energy sources.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.

| | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [TG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | ,烯数据 FR | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:Z0017251 2025/08/25 | | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格证:F3066728 | | | 指标 | or C | 2025/08/21 | 2025/08/22 | 变动值 | 一现货综述 | | | 原油& | WTI | 62. 35 | 63.52 | 1. 17 | | | | 石脑油 | Brent | 65. 79 | 67.67 | 1.88 | | | | | 石脑油 | 574.5 | 584.5 | 110 | | | | | 乙烯 CFR东北亚 | | | | 苯乙烯:江苏市场涨价。成本存支撑,原油、纯苯整 | | 游 | | | 825 | 830 | 5 | 理,苯乙烯市场有装置检修消息和补货成交提振,现 | | | 纯苯 | CFR中国 | 747 ...

Group 1 - South Korea has committed to purchasing $100 billion worth of U.S. energy products as part of a trade agreement to mitigate the impact of a 15% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Korean imports [3][4] - The actual implementation of this energy agreement faces significant challenges, as South Korean refiners have already been gradually shifting towards U.S. crude oil sources over the years [4][5] - Data from Kpler indicates that imports of WTI Midland crude oil from the U.S. to South Korea have increased from 283,000 barrels per day in 2020 to 465,000 barrels per day projected for 2025, but total crude oil imports remain stable at 2.8 to 3 million barrels per day [4][5] Group 2 - The South Korean refining system is primarily designed to process heavier crude oils from the Middle East, making a significant shift to U.S. light crude oil challenging without impacting operational efficiency and profitability [5][6] - Major South Korean refineries, such as SK Energy's Ulsan refinery, are blending WTI with heavier crude oils from Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia to maintain full production capacity [5][6] - The current strategy for South Korea involves marginally increasing U.S. crude oil imports while maintaining traditional reliance on heavier crude from the Persian Gulf, creating a dilemma between satisfying U.S. demands and preserving the domestic energy system [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reported that China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) experienced a 40% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, amounting to 21.5 billion RMB, which aligns with earlier profit forecasts [1] Financial Performance - The company's profit for the second quarter was 8.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 53% year-on-year decrease and a 38% quarter-on-quarter decline [1] - UBS slightly reduced the target price for Sinopec from 5.3 HKD to 5.2 HKD, while maintaining a "Buy" rating based on long-term recovery expectations in the refining sector [1] Future Outlook - UBS anticipates a slight improvement in Sinopec's earnings for the third quarter, attributing this to stable oil prices compared to the previous quarter and a reduced negative impact from crude oil inventories [1] - The third quarter is traditionally a peak season for chemicals, suggesting potential profit increases in the chemicals business [1] - Long-term expectations are positive due to China's anti-involution measures and the exit of overseas capacities, which are expected to enhance the fundamentals of the refining sector [1] - The company has lowered its full-year capital expenditure guidance by 5% [1]

Group 1 - Jiangsu Province has revised its chemical industry adjustment directory, targeting pesticide production, which may benefit leading companies like Yangnong Chemical, Jiangshan Chemical, and Limin Chemical [1] - Titanium dioxide companies have announced price increases, with Longbai Group raising prices by 500 RMB/ton for domestic customers and 70 USD/ton for international customers starting August 18, 2025 [1] - Over 20 titanium dioxide manufacturers have followed suit with price hikes, marking the first industry-wide increase in five months [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial effects, as indicated by July's PMI, PPI, and CPI data, suggesting a positive macroeconomic environment for the chemical sector [2] - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, with expectations of a recovery in chemical cycles supported by reduced tariffs and better external conditions [2] Group 3 - Key investment themes include: 1. Macro expectations and earnings recovery for resilient companies like Wanhua, Hualu, Huafeng, and Luxi [3] 2. Industries with favorable supply-demand dynamics, such as polyester filament and caustic soda, with companies like Tongkun and Xinfonming [3] 3. Domestic anti-involution and the exit of overseas capacity in refining and ethylene, focusing on Hengli, Rongsheng, and Sinopec [3] 4. Domestic sectors facing severe losses, particularly state-owned enterprises in soda ash and PVC, with attention on Zhongtai Chemical and Sanyou Chemical [3] Group 4 - The chemical sector has seen significant capital inflow, with the chemical ETF experiencing a net inflow of 21.54 billion RMB over eight days, averaging 2.69 billion RMB daily [4] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Industry Index accounted for 43.54% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical and Yanhai [4]

为保障试验安全，榆炼提前召开安全技术交底会，细化安全要求，强化"两票三制"执行规范;针对高危 作业，采取"物理隔离+专人监护"措施，确保全程可控;采用"常规项目+专项检测"试验模式，对主变压 器、断路器、避雷器等设备开展多项检测。 此次"年检"历时7天，内容覆盖主变、断路器、隔离开关、避雷器等11类共80余台(套)设备。榆炼通过 系统性检测，排查出绝缘老化、部件隐性缺陷等潜在问题并及时处置，为生产装置平稳运行和高质量供 电筑牢安全防线。 中化新网讯 日前，随着110千伏变电站2号主变预防性试验数据完成最终核验，榆林炼油厂110千伏变电 站年度预防性试验工作圆满完成。 ...

法国卢瓦尔-大西洋省省长办公室：为灭火，董热炼油厂相关装置已停电。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Asian refiners are diversifying their crude oil sources beyond traditional Middle Eastern suppliers, but this strategy has not successfully boosted the market amid expectations of an oversupply in the crude oil market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Asia consumes about 40% of the world's oil, historically relying on the Persian Gulf for crude supply [1]. - U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and foreign policies have prompted refiners to purchase crude from the U.S., Brazil, and Nigeria [1]. - The surge in light sweet crude oil purchases was expected to support Brent crude prices, but the price premium of Brent over Dubai crude has fallen to its lowest level since April [1]. - Market expectations indicate that crude oil oversupply will begin in the next quarter due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Global average daily oil production has increased by 1.4 million barrels compared to the same period in 2025, exceeding the International Energy Agency's (IEA) demand growth forecast [2]. - Analysts predict a weakening of market demand in Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year [2]. - The reallocation of crude oil flows due to Trump's policies has created uncertainty and volatility in the market [2]. - The IEA forecasts that global oil demand growth will be less than half of 2023's rate in the coming years [5]. Group 3: Price Competitiveness - The narrowing price gap between Brent and Dubai crude allows U.S. and West African crude to enter the Asian market at more competitive prices [3]. - Increased demand for U.S. crude has raised prices along the U.S. Gulf Coast, but has not supported broader domestic benchmark prices [5]. - Major banks are bearish on oil prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent crude will slightly decline to the mid-$60 range by year-end [5].